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The Price of Players: Building the team moving forward

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Old
03-16-2013, 02:40 PM
  #1
Frk It
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The Price of Players: Building the team moving forward

Over the past few seasons we have had some cap space, and had some clear needs we needed addressed. We needed a defensemen and did not want to pay "market value" for guys like Wisniewski, Carle, Ehrhoff because the consensus on the board (myself included) is that we would be overpaying for these guys. Same could be said about the forwards that have popped up in UFA, as well as Parise and Suter last summer.

Now Holland's solution to this has always been that the best way to draft and develop talent. But, I'm not so sure that really fixes the problem. We developed a guy like Filppula who is a legit top 6 forward and he is most likely going to price himself out of Detroit this summer. Same with Hudler last summer. We even had to give a guy like Ericsson 3 million well before he deserved it, though it turned out well for us. The point is I don't really ever see us getting a "discount" for guys we draft and develop ourself anymore. I guess it buys us time while they are on ELC's and before they hit UFA, but only drafting and having guys til they are UFA-eligible isn't great for the long run.

I thought with the cap going down and the CBA getting re-structured this problem would sort itself out, and salaries in general would go down. But I don't think that is the case.

So what does everyone think is the best way to build the team going forward without overpaying for guys or being in cap trouble?

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03-16-2013, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frk It View Post
Over the past few seasons we have had some cap space, and had some clear needs we needed addressed. We needed a defensemen and did not want to pay "market value" for guys like Wisniewski, Carle, Ehrhoff because the consensus on the board (myself included) is that we would be overpaying for these guys. Same could be said about the forwards that have popped up in UFA, as well as Parise and Suter last summer.

Now Holland's solution to this has always been that the best way to draft and develop talent. But, I'm not so sure that really fixes the problem. We developed a guy like Filppula who is a legit top 6 forward and he is most likely going to price himself out of Detroit this summer. Same with Hudler last summer. We even had to give a guy like Ericsson 3 million well before he deserved it, though it turned out well for us. The point is I don't really ever see us getting a "discount" for guys we draft and develop ourself anymore. I guess it buys us time while they are on ELC's and before they hit UFA, but only drafting and having guys til they are UFA-eligible isn't great for the long run.

I thought with the cap going down and the CBA getting re-structured this problem would sort itself out, and salaries in general would go down. But I don't think that is the case.

So what does everyone think is the best way to build the team going forward without overpaying for guys or being in cap trouble?
I think the trick is to spend when you're close... and then deconstruct when it gets too expensive, keeping the right guys around in your core.
The days of contending every year may be over -- though Chicago may have just enough young talent to do it

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Old
03-16-2013, 03:02 PM
  #3
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Originally Posted by Frk It View Post
Over the past few seasons we have had some cap space, and had some clear needs we needed addressed. We needed a defensemen and did not want to pay "market value" for guys like Wisniewski, Carle, Ehrhoff because the consensus on the board (myself included) is that we would be overpaying for these guys. Same could be said about the forwards that have popped up in UFA, as well as Parise and Suter last summer.

Now Holland's solution to this has always been that the best way to draft and develop talent. But, I'm not so sure that really fixes the problem. We developed a guy like Filppula who is a legit top 6 forward and he is most likely going to price himself out of Detroit this summer. Same with Hudler last summer. We even had to give a guy like Ericsson 3 million well before he deserved it, though it turned out well for us. The point is I don't really ever see us getting a "discount" for guys we draft and develop ourself anymore. I guess it buys us time while they are on ELC's and before they hit UFA, but only drafting and having guys til they are UFA-eligible isn't great for the long run.

I thought with the cap going down and the CBA getting re-structured this problem would sort itself out, and salaries in general would go down. But I don't think that is the case.

So what does everyone think is the best way to build the team going forward without overpaying for guys or being in cap trouble?
I have been saying for a little while now that I think the way we string guys along for a while is hurting in negotiations. Look at Smith he has already lost close to 2 million dollars, you think he is going to take it easy on them in RFA negotiations and even if he does because we have kept his playing time and value down does he come back looking for more on the next contract.

That is why Ericsson stuck to his guns and didn't blink in my opinion. He spent extra time in AHL after coming up and I think that rubs these guys the wrong way. In the past you knew Detroit would take care of you, you cannot really say that in the cap era. Just the opposite, they keep your role and NHL time down so they can control your contract. Guess what some of this newest generation is on to this trick and they don't like it. At least that is what I am starting to see. Lets face it Helm, Abdelkader, Ericsson all got a little more than anybody thought they would. If Howard gets the deal some are talking about, it is a sign this discount is a thing of the past. With that said if that is how the guys want to treat it, guess what we can bring in an outsider to make the most too and toss some guys, something they haven't done to them either.

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Old
03-16-2013, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
I have been saying for a little while now that I think the way we string guys along for a while is hurting in negotiations. Look at Smith he has already lost close to 2 million dollars, you think he is going to take it easy on them in RFA negotiations and even if he does because we have kept his playing time and value down does he come back looking for more on the next contract.

That is why Ericsson stuck to his guns and didn't blink in my opinion. He spent extra time in AHL after coming up and I think that rubs these guys the wrong way. In the past you knew Detroit would take care of you, you cannot really say that in the cap era. Just the opposite, they keep your role and NHL time down so they can control your contract. Guess what some of this newest generation is on to this trick and they don't like it. At least that is what I am starting to see. Lets face it Helm, Abdelkader, Ericsson all got a little more than anybody thought they would. If Howard gets the deal some are talking about, it is a sign this discount is a thing of the past. With that said if that is how the guys want to treat it, guess what we can bring in an outsider to make the most too and toss some guys, something they haven't done to them either.
And those who took discounts, mainly Zetterberg, Franzen, went straight to the NHL. Kronwall took a little bit discount perhaps, he only spent 1 year in the minors IIRC...

The more time they spend in minors with AHL salary the more they will want when their ELC etc are up.

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03-16-2013, 03:07 PM
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We even had to give a guy like Ericsson 3 million well before he deserved it, though it turned out well for us. The point is I don't really ever see us getting a "discount" for guys we draft and develop ourself anymore.
I kinda feel like, with E, they really really really banked on his potential and got lucky. Lucky that he wasn't playing up to it and was able to be signed for that amount, lucky that he's actually hitting his stride and playing up to the contract.

That's not going to happen very often.

The Wings model, slightly modified, is pretty damn good for being competitive every year. They just need more confidence in their well identified up and coming talent. That has to be the model going forward. Need to land that proven star power, especially down the middle. Need to accept that it might cost 8-8.5m. Stop overpaying guys like Cleary, Abby, Sammy. Use your cheaper and more effective drafted talent and dirt cheap guys like Miller, Eaves, Emmerton, Tatar, Andersson. That totally works.

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03-16-2013, 03:58 PM
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With Datsyuk looking at one more year and Hank is on the wrong side of 30...I can't figure out who the 'next Hank and Pavel' are. You can identify who the talented guys are but I wouldn't leave the keys to the castle to any of them yet.

Hank and Pavel came in when the Wings had one of the most talented (and successful) rosters we've seen this side of the 80s Oilers. It's not as advantageous for a young player to break in now with so much dead weight on this team. Yeah, Cleary and Bertuzzi (et al) are veterans but this isn't exactly like Datsyuk cutting his teeth by playing with Brett Hull.

Datsyuk and Zetterberg are guys that I'd hope all the young players can learn from...talent isn't enough, these guys also work their butts off. For a blueliner, there's no Chelios or Lidstrom to follow around...Kronwall isn't in that stratosphere. I don't feel nearly as good about this team going forward as I did 10 years ago when the core of this team transitioned from the Yzerman, Fedorov and Shanahan.

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Old
03-16-2013, 04:00 PM
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There is a problem here:

Reduced playing time does one thing.

Keeps a player less well scouted. And thus the player is still looked at as having 'potential'.

This provides two things:

Holland can lower the cap hit based on "you haven't accomplished anything yet"
but it also allows the player to say "But i have massive potential and you know it"

Counter arguements.

I would prefer to play Tatar alot and Nyquist alot and Mursak and Emmerton as much as possible.

Then you find out:

Hey Tatar is the best out of these guys over 3 seasons... OK pay him
Nyquist is a 3rd liner not a 2nd liner... OK pay him

When they are at their potential, no one knows what they are worth.

Maybe Mursak makes what Tatar makes if they both sign contracts at the same time.

Either way, we should not be debating contracts with players that only have 1 season under their belt.

I would prefer we turn potential into knowledge.

Knowledge being the fact that a player is good/mediocre/bad
Without the right knowledge you cannot pay the player properly.


Last edited by BinCookin: 03-16-2013 at 04:06 PM.
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Old
03-16-2013, 04:27 PM
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With the league in its current state of parity, you will likely see most teams spend to the cap. There won't be any moves to make at the trade deadline anymore, so you have to build your team in the summer and expect that to be the final roster come April. This means we will likely see Holland utilize Detroit's spending power more when he has it.

Targets in the offseason should be Ladislav Smid and Marek Zidlicky and a top 6 forward, while dumping Cola, Quincey, and maybe Eaves. I'd shoot for something like this:

Tomas Tatar ($0.840m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Alexander Semin ($7.000m)
Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Damien Brunner ($2.750m)
Gustav Nyquist ($1.000m) / Riley Sheahan ($0.900m) / Landon Ferraro ($0.870m)
Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m) / Darren Helm ($2.125m) / Jordin Tootoo ($1.900m)
Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Patrick Eaves ($1.200m)
DEFENSEMEN
Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($3.250m)
Ladislav Smid ($4.000m) / Marek Zidlicky ($4.000m)
Jakub Kindl ($1.050m) / Brendan Smith ($1.500m)
Brian Lashoff ($0.725m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($4.000m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Todd Bertuzzi ($0.000m)
Buyout: Mikael Samuelsson ($0.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.098% of upper limit)
Carlo Colaiacovo ($0.025m—1.0%) Kyle Quincey ($0.038m—1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,493,962; BONUSES: $455,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $2,261,038

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03-16-2013, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by JmanWingsFan View Post
With the league in its current state of parity, you will likely see most teams spend to the cap. There won't be any moves to make at the trade deadline anymore, so you have to build your team in the summer and expect that to be the final roster come April. This means we will likely see Holland utilize Detroit's spending power more when he has it.

Targets in the offseason should be Ladislav Smid and Marek Zidlicky and a top 6 forward, while dumping Cola, Quincey, and maybe Eaves. I'd shoot for something like this:

Tomas Tatar ($0.840m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / Alexander Semin ($7.000m)
Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Damien Brunner ($2.750m)
Gustav Nyquist ($1.000m) / Riley Sheahan ($0.900m) / Landon Ferraro ($0.870m)
Justin Abdelkader ($1.800m) / Darren Helm ($2.125m) / Jordin Tootoo ($1.900m)
Cory Emmerton ($0.533m) / Patrick Eaves ($1.200m)
DEFENSEMEN
Niklas Kronwall ($4.750m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($3.250m)
Ladislav Smid ($4.000m) / Marek Zidlicky ($4.000m)
Jakub Kindl ($1.050m) / Brendan Smith ($1.500m)
Brian Lashoff ($0.725m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jimmy Howard ($4.000m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Todd Bertuzzi ($0.000m)
Buyout: Mikael Samuelsson ($0.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.098% of upper limit)
Carlo Colaiacovo ($0.025m—1.0%) Kyle Quincey ($0.038m—1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,493,962; BONUSES: $455,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $2,261,038
How come? I think big moves will still happen during the deadline.

I like your roster, though its a bit mess up with Semin and Zidlicky not on any lines for some reason. Unfortunately the chances of Q and CC being traded plus Bert and Sammy bring bought out is as slim as it gets. I think its a good idea though.

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03-16-2013, 04:35 PM
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No all rookie line pls.. I'd count Nyquist as rookie.

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03-16-2013, 04:41 PM
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How come? I think big moves will still happen during the deadline.

I like your roster, though its a bit mess up with Semin and Zidlicky not on any lines for some reason. Unfortunately the chances of Q and CC being traded plus Bert and Sammy bring bought out is as slim as it gets. I think its a good idea though.
Why trade your star player when you have a chance to make the playoffs? If everyone has a chance, no one is going to deconstruct their roster, because net gain will be zero. Free Agency will be more important because the only moves you'll see will be for role players and bottom sixers.

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Old
03-16-2013, 04:46 PM
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I can't believe it never occured to me that we're saving money by keeping Tats and Nyquist's production down. That's the silver lining in all of this.

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03-16-2013, 04:51 PM
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Originally Posted by JmanWingsFan View Post
Why trade your star player when you have a chance to make the playoffs? If everyone has a chance, no one is going to deconstruct their roster, because net gain will be zero. Free Agency will be more important because the only moves you'll see will be for role players and bottom sixers.
Because sometimes teams need to commit to a full rebuild, and the first step would be trading away their star player for picks/prospects. If its a young guy like Stamkos or Giroux and hes on a bottom-dweller then you don't trade him away at the deadline, but guys like Nash or Iginla will still be traded some years during the deadline. I get what your saying but its still gonna happen sometimes.

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03-16-2013, 04:54 PM
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I can't believe it never occured to me that we're saving money by keeping Tats and Nyquist's production down. That's the silver lining in all of this.
That's a really ****** silver lining.

We're gonna be saving money because they won't be as good as they should/could be if they were handled correctly.

What's the point in saving cap space if your not gonna use it anyways? That's been the case recently.

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03-16-2013, 05:01 PM
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Even with parity there is still going to be bottom feeders. Even they bad teams have a few worthwhile pieces to move at the deadline.

Then there are the cap floor teams. These guys will bring in players to reach the floor in the off season to each the minimum salary for the team. These teams will be happy to move salary at the trade deadline for picks and prospects.

Finally, you have pending free agents. There's always going to be a few guys out there available because their teams want to get something rather than the nothing.

Parity may reduce the number of players available and drive up prices. But it won't kill the trade deadline market.

As an aside. The cap is lowering for next season that might make for more sellers than what is anticipated.

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03-16-2013, 05:03 PM
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I can't believe it never occured to me that we're saving money by keeping Tats and Nyquist's production down. That's the silver lining in all of this.
Or they hold it against us for all future negotiations and either walk or demand a boat-load of money when they negotiate contracts in the future.

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03-16-2013, 05:05 PM
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I can't believe it never occured to me that we're saving money by keeping Tats and Nyquist's production down. That's the silver lining in all of this.
Read Zetterberg Era's first post on the topic. If his theory is correct, and u believe it is, we aren't saving money. At best we are deferring it to later years. These guys are going to get paid whether it's this cap or a future one is the only question.

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03-16-2013, 05:05 PM
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Or they hold it against us for all future negotiations and either walk or demand a boat-load of money when they negotiate contracts in the future.
If they're RFAs they'll have no advantage or other players to compare themselves to. If they're that disenchanted by the situation they'll request a trade. But I really doubt they will.

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03-16-2013, 05:12 PM
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If they're RFAs they'll have no advantage or other players to compare themselves to. If they're that disenchanted by the situation they'll request a trade. But I really doubt they will.
Right but if we are going to keep people off the NHL roster or try to limit their ice-time or role to try to save money and lower their salary it's going to piss them off. People have emotions. Then they are going to walk or demand a lot of money when they hit their UFA years.

So yeah we'll be fine while they are RFA's but we are only going to have players til they are 27-28.

Have to look at the big picture. If you treat people right from the beginning then you can potentially avoid these issues later on.

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03-16-2013, 05:29 PM
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If teams start to realize that not every team that makes the playoffs is a contender, they might be more willing to sell even if they're close/barely in. You can either keep limping into the playoffs every year and get knocked out the first round while hoping and praying to the gods that you make a deep run, or you can rebuild and retool and make a serious attempt at it.

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03-16-2013, 05:45 PM
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Right but if we are going to keep people off the NHL roster or try to limit their ice-time or role to try to save money and lower their salary it's going to piss them off. People have emotions. Then they are going to walk or demand a lot of money when they hit their UFA years.

So yeah we'll be fine while they are RFA's but we are only going to have players til they are 27-28.

Have to look at the big picture. If you treat people right from the beginning then you can potentially avoid these issues later on.
I don't think they are very pissed of. Like I wrote earlier, Tatar got 225k dollars of his 18 game stint up in NHL. I think he is very happy man to get that money because it was 15 times more than his AHL salary has been. He over doubled his salary earnings he has got from his total 3.5 year AHL-career so far.

Of course their goal is to catch even bigger money in the future, but I don't think they are pissed of because of this. 225k is huge load of money and it's pretty sure that he knows that at next season there's more to come. He will get his full NHL salary and is almost a millionaire after that. Must be really pissed of guy.

Please put some perspective in these things.

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03-16-2013, 06:09 PM
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Dude, do you think he cares more about 225k, or about playing what he thinks he's earned? He's worked his ass off for years, he's done everything anyone has ever asked of him. He's excelled in the AHL, led the Griffins in scoring before being called up, played very well with the NHL club.

And.... now he's being sent back down? Why? If it's for asset management, that basically is telling him "Look, you definitely earned your spot, you definitely belong up here, but we have other guys signed who are not as good as you that we're going to use instead." Yeah. I'd be pissed.

These guys are all super competitive. Look at Schneider/Loungo. They are friendly, but it's clear that despite both of them making tons of money, they both want to be the #1. All these guys want to play at the highest level they can play. The money is secondary.

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03-16-2013, 06:35 PM
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Holland is stuck in the past. The only way he's modified his management philosophy in the cap era is to retain his picks and prospects. Other than that, he's clueless.

First, he needs to realize that veterans are not as valuable as they used to be. They get injured; they slow down; they're expensive. Gone are the days when players as slow as Larry Murphy or Brett Hull could still get by on skill and remain dominant. By contrast, the only guys in their late 30s who have remained "dominant" nowadays are phenomenal skaters.

Second, he needs to realize that being "loyal" is no longer a viable philosophy. You can't be nice and hand out contracts to aging veterans just because they've stuck around or put in some of their best years with the team. This is an era where goal differentials and shootout losses are the difference between making the playoffs and sitting on the sidelines. You can't forego signing or promoting more talented players just to keep on a veteran.

Third, going hand-in-hand with the above, the overripe philosophy has to go. The decision to bring in prospects should be based solely on whether or not they're going to give your team a better chance to win than the roster that you've got.

Fourth, no one wants to be a Red Wing above all else anymore. It's nice to be able to say "Hey! Look at our glorious past! Look at all of our historical banners! Look at our playoff streak!" but hockey players are not that dumb. They're just as aware as you are that any team can win any night in this league. So what does that mean? You're going to have to overpay the occasional player. I'm no NHL GM, but it would seem to me that the obvious "trick" here is to simply be discriminant: pass up on the Wisniewskis and Ehrhoffs when you've only lost 1 of your top 4 defenseman, but go hard after the Suters when you've lost 3 of your top 4 defenseman.

Fifth, if you're having cap issues or anticipate having cap issues, its OK to trade a roster player to alleviate the problem.

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03-16-2013, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by detredWINgs View Post
Holland is stuck in the past. The only way he's modified his management philosophy in the cap era is to retain his picks and prospects. Other than that, he's clueless.

First, he needs to realize that veterans are not as valuable as they used to be. They get injured; they slow down; they're expensive. Gone are the days when players as slow as Larry Murphy or Brett Hull could still get by on skill and remain dominant. By contrast, the only guys in their late 30s who have remained "dominant" nowadays are phenomenal skaters.

Second, he needs to realize that being "loyal" is no longer a viable philosophy. You can't be nice and hand out contracts to aging veterans just because they've stuck around or put in some of their best years with the team. This is an era where goal differentials and shootout losses are the difference between making the playoffs and sitting on the sidelines. You can't forego signing or promoting more talented players just to keep on a veteran.

Third, going hand-in-hand with the above, the overripe philosophy has to go. The decision to bring in prospects should be based solely on whether or not they're going to give your team a better chance to win than the roster that you've got.

Fourth, no one wants to be a Red Wing above all else anymore. It's nice to be able to say "Hey! Look at our glorious past! Look at all of our historical banners! Look at our playoff streak!" but hockey players are not that dumb. They're just as aware as you are that any team can win any night in this league. So what does that mean? You're going to have to overpay the occasional player. I'm no NHL GM, but it would seem to me that the obvious "trick" here is to simply be discriminant: pass up on the Wisniewskis and Ehrhoffs when you've only lost 1 of your top 4 defenseman, but go hard after the Suters when you've lost 3 of your top 4 defenseman.

Fifth, if you're having cap issues or anticipate having cap issues, its OK to trade a roster player to alleviate the problem.
The scariest thing Holland has said is that quote about hoping in a year or two or three or four that some player will 'want' to come here. Jesus that's terrifying way to do business.

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03-16-2013, 06:39 PM
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