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Rumors and Proposals Vol. 7: "GMs who should be posters"

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Old
03-16-2013, 07:43 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by doubledown99 View Post
I actually agree with you....

Have to say though that I love how some of clowns talk in absolutes as if you guys are actual GMs or have connections in the hockey world. They are your opinions. Not facts

"No way blah blah happens"
"The cost of so and so is Gagner..."
Of course there's no absolutes in value - but it's all relative.

It's not hard to assess the kind of player/contract a team is willing to take on for an asset.

Is NYR going to demand Gagner? No. But a player of Gagner's value? Sure why not. A young RFA above-average secondary scoring center is definitely worth an established #1-2 defenseman like Staal/Girardi.

So someone/some package of that value is likely going to be the price

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Old
03-16-2013, 08:19 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by McClelland View Post
This is a serious thread, so you better back up your stuff, if not? , you are smoked man !
There is an article on the free agents on hockey futures where they say the oil have interest in him.

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Old
03-16-2013, 08:33 PM
  #678
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I agree that Ganger is totally a team guy and a hard competitor but the Oilers and many fans haven't been that high on Gagner the past few years so I see no reason why he should take a discount for us. Especially after the Hall and Eberle contracts, they got paid so why shouldn't Gagner?
probably because he's not NEARLY as good as they are? (and i'm a pretty big gagner fan, have a signed jersey and everything)... gagner isn't nearly the player that either hall or eberle are, it's not even close actually

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Old
03-16-2013, 08:37 PM
  #679
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probably because he's not NEARLY as good as they are? (and i'm a pretty big gagner fan, have a signed jersey and everything)... gagner isn't nearly the player that either hall or eberle are, it's not even close actually
Why not Eberle? They have similar build, speed, and draft pedigree.

Gagner is a bit of a late to mature, but is showing the same point/game propensity that Ebs showed last year.

For everything Ebs shows as a sniper Gags does as a playmaker/thinker.

I do believe Eberle is a bit better and has higher value regardless, but I don't see why these 2 players can have identical impacts and careers heading forward.

It's so much easier for Eberle because he's a winger - less overall responsibility and difficulty to play his position than Gagner's.

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Old
03-16-2013, 08:47 PM
  #680
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Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Why not Eberle? They have similar build, speed, and draft pedigree.

Gagner is a bit of a late to mature, but is showing the same point/game propensity that Ebs showed last year.

For everything Ebs shows as a sniper Gags does as a playmaker/thinker.

I do believe Eberle is a bit better and has higher value regardless, but I don't see why these 2 players can have identical impacts and careers heading forward.

It's so much easier for Eberle because he's a winger - less overall responsibility and difficulty to play his position than Gagner's.
i think this is one of those circumstances where you need to look past the numbers and just watch the players play... eberle is the more gifted player, without question, i don't think you'll find much luck arguing otherwise... i also tend to think the skill gap is actually fairly large... gagner makes up for some of the difference in his compete level, which is definitely higher than eberle's

but just looking at the stats:

eberle
age 20 - 0.62 PPG
age 21 - 0.97
age 22 - 0.67 (so far this year, during a very bad cold streak)

gagner
age 20 - 0.60
age 21 - 0.62
age 22 - 0.63
age 23 - 0.96 (this season so far)

so eberle did everything 1 or 2 years sooner, and his "off-year" (this year) is still better than gagner's best year before this season... i would also guess that gagner's numbers come down a bit throughout the rest of this season, and eberle's will go up some (as their respective shooting% regress to the mean somewhat)... unless you think it's likely that gagner continues shooting at 15.3% and eberle continues at 7.3% (hint: neither of those is very likely)

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Old
03-16-2013, 09:26 PM
  #681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i think this is one of those circumstances where you need to look past the numbers and just watch the players play... eberle is the more gifted player, without question, i don't think you'll find much luck arguing otherwise... i also tend to think the skill gap is actually fairly large... gagner makes up for some of the difference in his compete level, which is definitely higher than eberle's

but just looking at the stats:

eberle
age 20 - 0.62 PPG
age 21 - 0.97
age 22 - 0.67 (so far this year, during a very bad cold streak)

gagner
age 20 - 0.60
age 21 - 0.62
age 22 - 0.63
age 23 - 0.96 (this season so far)

so eberle did everything 1 or 2 years sooner, and his "off-year" (this year) is still better than gagner's best year before this season... i would also guess that gagner's numbers come down a bit throughout the rest of this season, and eberle's will go up some (as their respective shooting% regress to the mean somewhat)... unless you think it's likely that gagner continues shooting at 15.3% and eberle continues at 7.3% (hint: neither of those is very likely)
Gagner is over-achieving shooting% wise to the same extent Eberle was for his first 2 seasons. Average shooting%'s are usually in the 11-14% range.

I think both are ~70pt players at their best, kind of like Hemsky.

Eberle is obviously a bit better, based on the eye-test and numbers, but Gagner has improved in a big way. Now that he doesn't have such a monstrous physical disadvantage it's allowing some of his skill to shine through.

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Old
03-16-2013, 09:30 PM
  #682
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Is it possibly time to Waive Belanger?

The reason I think about is the extra year on the contract that may keep some teams either away or will force the Oilers to take a contract back.

If you waive Belanger you get nothing, but if he's claimed (and I would think it's pretty likely) you free up another contract that can be used on a college UFA

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Old
03-16-2013, 09:34 PM
  #683
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I wonder if Buffalo would consider something centred around Gagner and Grigorenko and centrepieces. I am just worried we will not be able to afford Gagner (as much as I would love to keep him). It gives Yak a sidekick, and us the big C we need at an entry deal price. While Buffalo gets the better player today by far.

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Old
03-16-2013, 09:47 PM
  #684
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
I wonder if Buffalo would consider something centred around Gagner and Grigorenko and centrepieces. I am just worried we will not be able to afford Gagner (as much as I would love to keep him). It gives Yak a sidekick, and us the big C we need at an entry deal price. While Buffalo gets the better player today by far.
a thousand times no.... we have to stop trading actual NHLers for magic beans

you worry about us affording gagner, but we aren't anywhere close to the cap, not even next year when it drops are we really in any trouble... you sign the players for a fair deal when you have them, and if the cap becomes a concern, you deal with it at that time

a thousand times no

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:01 PM
  #685
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If Gagner wants $5 million per ... he can pack his bags and go get it somewhere else.

Trade him for a d-man in the summer and move Hemsky for a no.2 C.

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:06 PM
  #686
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
If Gagner wants $5 million per ... he can pack his bags and go get it somewhere else.

Trade him for a d-man in the summer and move Hemsky for a no.2 C.
That's... not even remotely plausible.

Teams aren't going to give up a decent d-man for an undersized, non-natural center.

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:08 PM
  #687
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Hemsky is not getting you a #2C, maybe a good rugged winger... Gagner may get you a good Dman...

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:14 PM
  #688
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Hemsky + Peckham for RJ Umberger + Nikita Nikitin

I think Gagner can net you a top 4 d-man.

If you can get Barkov or MacKinnon in the draft that makes him expendable completely.

We've overpaid too many times for guys who have had good half seasons (Horcoff, Gilbert, Pisani with the playoff run, etc. etc. etc.) and they never end up living up to their contract extension.

Even the Eberle/Hall deals, it really wasn't necessary to get those done last summer.


Last edited by Soundwave: 03-16-2013 at 10:20 PM.
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Old
03-16-2013, 10:25 PM
  #689
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Hemsky + Peckham for RJ Umberger + Nikita Nikitin

I think Gagner can net you a top 4 d-man.

If you can get Barkov or MacKinnon in the draft that makes him expendable completely.

We've overpaid too many times for guys who have had good half seasons (Horcoff, Gilbert, Pisani with the playoff run, etc. etc. etc.) and they never end up living up to their contract extension.

Even the Eberle/Hall deals, it really wasn't necessary to get those done last summer.
They did the Eberle/Hall deals, because they didn't know what the next CBA was going to look like. I am fine with ditching Hemsky, for a d-man or rugged winger.

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:50 PM
  #690
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Hemsky + Peckham for RJ Umberger + Nikita Nikitin

I think Gagner can net you a top 4 d-man.

If you can get Barkov or MacKinnon in the draft that makes him expendable completely.

We've overpaid too many times for guys who have had good half seasons (Horcoff, Gilbert, Pisani with the playoff run, etc. etc. etc.) and they never end up living up to their contract extension.

Even the Eberle/Hall deals, it really wasn't necessary to get those done last summer.
I don't mind this deal, but I wonder if the Oilers could bump up the offer to get Tyutin instead of Nikitin

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:54 PM
  #691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
If Gagner wants $5 million per ... he can pack his bags and go get it somewhere else.

Trade him for a d-man in the summer and move Hemsky for a no.2 C.
the problem with this is that you won't get a top-4 dman for gagner and you won't get a #2 center for hemsky

i suppose you could add to each deal... something like: gagner + marincin for a top-4 dman and hemsky + klefbom for a legit #2 center... but i don't have much faith in tambo making such deals

i don't want to give gagner $5 million either, nor do i think he'll get that, but even if he did get $5 million, it's not like we're up against the cap anyhow... once the cap becomes a concern, you trade somebody at that point... trading gagner now, unless you are getting another #2 center back, doesn't move us forward in the least

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03-16-2013, 11:41 PM
  #692
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilphan View Post
I wonder if Buffalo would consider something centred around Gagner and Grigorenko and centrepieces. I am just worried we will not be able to afford Gagner (as much as I would love to keep him). It gives Yak a sidekick, and us the big C we need at an entry deal price. While Buffalo gets the better player today by far.
Buffalo laughs and hangs up. Rumors have been circulating that they are gonna try and rebuild, get rid of Miller, older players, and even a thread from a Buff fan asking what Pominvilles trade value was. They were looking for picks and prospects.

And I don't think Gagner has that much value.

And to the poster who quoted you saying to sign players to fair deals, and worry about the cap when the time comes, that is how you cripple a franchise. You need to plan ahead, and let the players who aren't key components go get there money elsewhere ie trade them. This is a business after all.

I am not saying that we shouldn't resign Gagner, but if he wont take a discount, I think trying to trade him for player types that we need is what needs to happen.

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Old
03-16-2013, 11:46 PM
  #693
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Originally Posted by Jarvi View Post
Buffalo laughs and hangs up. Rumors have been circulating that they are gonna try and rebuild, get rid of Miller, older players, and even a thread from a Buff fan asking what Pominvilles trade value was. They were looking for picks and prospects.

And I don't think Gagner has that much value.

And to the poster who quoted you saying to sign players to fair deals, and worry about the cap when the time comes, that is how you cripple a franchise. You need to plan ahead, and let the players who aren't key components go get there money elsewhere ie trade them. This is a business after all.

I am not saying that we shouldn't resign Gagner, but if he wont take a discount, I think trying to trade him for player types that we need is what needs to happen.
I wonder what the price would be for Miller?

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Old
03-17-2013, 12:00 AM
  #694
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Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
a thousand times no.... we have to stop trading actual NHLers for magic beans

you worry about us affording gagner, but we aren't anywhere close to the cap, not even next year when it drops are we really in any trouble... you sign the players for a fair deal when you have them, and if the cap becomes a concern, you deal with it at that time

a thousand times no
Are you sure about that? Who stays and who goes (and who replaces them at what price) in your scenario? I don't think we have as much freedom as some believe.

Cap Situation after Re-Signs 2013/2014

Forwards (14)
Taylor Hall $6mil
Jordan Eberle $6mil
Shawn Horcoff $5.5mil
Ales Hemsky $5mil
Sam Gagner $4.5mil
Nail Yakupov $3.775mil
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $3.775mil
Ryan Smyth $2.25mil
Eric Belanger $1.75mil
Magnus Paajarvi $1.5mil
Ryan Jones $1.5mil
Teemu Hartikainen $1.2mil
Lennart Petrell $1.1mil
Mike Brown $736,667

Total Cap Hit - $44.59mil

Defense(7)
Justin Schultz $3.775mil
Ladislav Smid $3.5mil
Nick Schultz $3.5mil
Ryan Whitney $3mil
Jeff Petry $1.75mil
Mark Fistric $1.6mil
Oscar Klefbom $1.275mil

Total Cap Hit - $18.375mil

Goal
Devan Dubnyk $3.5mil
Random Backup $1mil

Total Cap Hit - $4.5mil

Total Projected Team Cap Number 2013/2014: $67.465mil

Cap Ceiling will be $64.3mil, so this means the Oilers would be $3.165mil OVER the cap ceiling.

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Old
03-17-2013, 12:08 AM
  #695
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I wonder what the price would be for Miller?
He has a limited NTC according to Capgeek with the limitation being he can provide a list of up to 8 teams he would not accept a trade to. 22/30 isn't bad, dice I'd be willing to roll. The only thing is he has two more years at 6.25 which would put the Oilers into Canucks territory by having close to 10 mill tied up between the pipes. It's not that I wouldn't want Miller, but Dubnyk would have to be going the other way as a part of the package I'd presume. I'd be all for it though as I'm trying not to rag on Dubnyk but I'm just not confident in his abilities as a true #1.

As for asking price I'll try (I suck at proposals-haha): Dubnyk, 2014 2nd rounder & prospect?

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03-17-2013, 12:16 AM
  #696
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I wonder what the price would be for Miller?
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...1374347&page=2

I think I put the link in right, there is the thread I read about it in so you can read some of the proposals in there.

To the poster above me, dealing Duby could actually work out really nicely for both teams. Gives Buff two young goalies to compete for the starting job, which would benefit Enroth for sure (who knows how Duby would react to it though, I think he would take it well though). And gives us a more calming veteran presence. There #'s may be close for the last season or 2 (didn't check just what it said in that thread) but Miller keeps his team in games, whereas for the most part Duby doesn't. Miller can make the key saves we need as a weak defensive team.

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03-17-2013, 12:16 AM
  #697
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I will trade Sam for Dave Steckel very soon. We need seasoned veterans, says Kevin.

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03-17-2013, 12:25 AM
  #698
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If Sather trades one of his defenceman, I don't see him asking for less than Eberle.

Even though he's frustrated me quite a few times this season, and MacDonough for Eberle seems to be fair value, the issue becomes: does MacDonough want to play in EDM (especially after living in a world class city like New York)?

Eberle is a western Canadian boy that (at least, on the surface) seems to enjoy playing for Edmonton. MacDonough is an impending RFA - if he doesn't want to play for the Oilers, that trade could turn into a huge embarrassment.

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03-17-2013, 12:26 AM
  #699
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Would we be intrested in Patrick berglund or David Perron from the blues they would add size in our top six. What would it take to acquire them? Ae they even worth it i know berglund is on a crazy shooting touch right now but is he top six material? He is still young but played enough to be a vet of sorts.

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03-17-2013, 12:27 AM
  #700
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Hemsky + Peckham for RJ Umberger + Nikita Nikitin

I think Gagner can net you a top 4 d-man.

If you can get Barkov or MacKinnon in the draft that makes him expendable completely.

We've overpaid too many times for guys who have had good half seasons (Horcoff, Gilbert, Pisani with the playoff run, etc. etc. etc.) and they never end up living up to their contract extension.

Even the Eberle/Hall deals, it really wasn't necessary to get those done last summer.
You can't really put Horcoff in the "good half season" club. He had 73 points in 79 games in 05/06, and then had his 50 points in 53 games season. And he was near ppg overseason during the 04 lockout as well. He was on the verge of becoming our best player before he blew out his shoulder. He hasn't had any offense since.

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