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Old
03-16-2013, 07:19 AM
  #376
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulinho View Post
Islanders fan perspective, this is actually pretty simple for Florida trade down to 2 or 3 & take your man MacKinnon, Barkov or Drouin. Let a team more desperate for Seth Jones take him & give you something nice at the same time.
Yeah that would be nice, but it's easier said than done.

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03-16-2013, 08:00 AM
  #377
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paulinho View Post
Islanders fan perspective, this is actually pretty simple for Florida trade down to 2 or 3 & take your man MacKinnon, Barkov or Drouin. Let a team more desperate for Seth Jones take him & give you something nice at the same time.
Duh.. We're the Panthers, we don't like drafting first overall anyway.

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03-16-2013, 08:03 AM
  #378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
There's not a single argument that can be made that would convince me to select Jones over MacKinnon.

When I think of taking a defenseman number one overall, I'm thinking Pronger, Lidstrom, Karlsson..
And Jones is that good.

I'm not advocating for Jones over MacKinnon, but I won't be upset if that's the route we take.

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Old
03-16-2013, 01:58 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
And Jones is that good.

I'm not advocating for Jones over MacKinnon, but I won't be upset if that's the route we take.
I think Drouin is/will be better than Mackinnon.

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03-16-2013, 02:25 PM
  #380
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
And Jones is that good.

I'm not advocating for Jones over MacKinnon, but I won't be upset if that's the route we take.
As good as two future HOFers and last years' Norris winner. In that case..

I'll take 3 grams of Mr. Nice and an ounce of afghani please.

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03-16-2013, 03:05 PM
  #381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
As good as two future HOFers and last years' Norris winner. In that case..

I'll take 3 grams of Mr. Nice and an ounce of afghani please.
And MacKinnon is a guaranteed HOFer? I'm not sure why you're being snarky with me, but obviously I meant that Jones projects to be that good. We don't know yet what will happen with any of these kids.

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03-16-2013, 09:09 PM
  #382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
And MacKinnon is a guaranteed HOFer? I'm not sure why you're being snarky with me, but obviously I meant that Jones projects to be that good. We don't know yet what will happen with any of these kids.
The 2 players I mentioned may or may not even up in the hall of fame. I believe they will certainly be considered.

You're saying Seth Jones projects to be a HOFer. Right?

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03-16-2013, 10:25 PM
  #383
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The Top 4-5 are pretty good picks all around, so we should end up with someone very talented wherever we finish. I am literally okay with either MacKinnon, Drouin or Jones. Don't know much about Barkov or that Russian who's name escapes me.

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03-16-2013, 10:37 PM
  #384
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
The 2 players I mentioned may or may not even up in the hall of fame. I believe they will certainly be considered.

You're saying Seth Jones projects to be a HOFer. Right?
Yes.

It's really stupid to say MacKinnon and Drouin project to one day be considered, but then imply that Jones doesn't simply because you don't want to draft a defenseman.

Ottawa looks really stupid drafting Erik Karlsson. How dare they take a d-man in the 1st round?

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Old
03-16-2013, 10:53 PM
  #385
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Draft odds

So if season ended today, Panthers finish last and have a 25% chance of drafting #1 and 75% chance of drafting #2.

If they finish #29, they have a 18.8% chance of drafting #1, 25% chance of drafting #2, 56.2% chance of drafting #3

If they finish #28, they have a 14.2% chance of drafting #1, 0% chance of drafting #2 , 43.8% chance of drafting #3, 42% chance of drafting #4

If they finish #27, they have a 10.7% chance of drafting #1, 0% chance of #2 or #3, 58% chance of drafting #4, 31.3% chance of #5.

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Old
03-16-2013, 11:03 PM
  #386
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This reminds me of when people said we should pick Larsson. But I'm glad we went with Huby.

(I'm not comparing Larsson to Jones. Just saying it kinda feels like the same situation.) Get Mac.

-ghoste

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03-16-2013, 11:56 PM
  #387
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If you hold onto the pick you gotta take MacKinnon. MacKinnon & Huberdeau will be making beautiful music together for the next 10 years.

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Old
03-17-2013, 12:17 AM
  #388
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick View Post
Yes.

It's really stupid to say MacKinnon and Drouin project to one day be considered, but then imply that Jones doesn't simply because you don't want to draft a defenseman.

Ottawa looks really stupid drafting Erik Karlsson. How dare they take a d-man in the 1st round?
I said Pronger and Lidstrom could be HOFers.

He said Jones is that good.

I don't agree.

As far as drafting defenseman goes in the first round.. I'm fine with it. If you're looking at a defenseman to go number one overall.. Then, he better as if not more valuable than Erik Karlsson. Otherwise, that team will regret passing over prospects like Mac and Drouin.

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03-17-2013, 12:37 AM
  #389
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Even if Jones projects as good as Lidstrom, I don't want him. Lidstrom had insane offensive superstars to develop around. We would just crush this guy's growth potential. Honestly if we drafted zero defensemen and zero goalies I would be happy. I just saw a depressing stat, that in our entire history we have scored over 250 goals only once. Please for the love of freaking god stay away from defense for once.

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03-17-2013, 01:18 AM
  #390
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Draft

First post.

As people have pointed out, we really can't go wrong with one of Mac, Drouin, Barkov, or Jones. I'll be ecstatic with any of those four. Nichushkin would also be tremendous, but I don't want to wait 2-3 years to see him in a Panthers uni.

I actually think Drouin would be my choice if I were in charge. He's having a ridiculous season.

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Old
03-17-2013, 01:19 AM
  #391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
I said Pronger and Lidstrom could be HOFers.

He said Jones is that good.

I don't agree.

As far as drafting defenseman goes in the first round.. I'm fine with it. If you're looking at a defenseman to go number one overall.. Then, he better as if not more valuable than Erik Karlsson. Otherwise, that team will regret passing over prospects like Mac and Drouin.
Because those guys are going to be studs for sure?

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03-17-2013, 01:20 AM
  #392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Even if Jones projects as good as Lidstrom, I don't want him. Lidstrom had insane offensive superstars to develop around. We would just crush this guy's growth potential. Honestly if we drafted zero defensemen and zero goalies I would be happy. I just saw a depressing stat, that in our entire history we have scored over 250 goals only once. Please for the love of freaking god stay away from defense for once.
You know what else is depressing? Allowing 3.71 goals per game.

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03-17-2013, 01:45 AM
  #393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62
Taken from Prospects board. Credit a poster named decma.

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Old
03-17-2013, 02:33 AM
  #394
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick View Post
Because those guys are going to be studs for sure?
If I agree that Mac / Drouin is not for sure. Then, you can agree Jones is not for sure.

Fact is, nothing is for sure.

Well, then I guess it comes down to needs. We need more scoring and we need to keep the opposition from scoring. Also, I might add that we need a face / identity.

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03-17-2013, 10:52 AM
  #395
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03-17-2013, 12:18 PM
  #396
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I always feel that you draft BPA.

On the other hand the D-man vs. forward decision here has another wrinkle.

The Panthers have an organizational need for excitement... for buzz.

A forward does that far better than a d-man - even if at the end of the day their effect on the W-L column is the same.

More buzz => more ticket sales => more $14 heinekens sold => more profits => more money to spend on team improvement

If Mac & Hubs start lighting it up on ESPN highlights, that will be very, very good for the Florida Panthers... much, much moreso than having a Shea Weber quality d-man would.

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Old
03-17-2013, 03:01 PM
  #397
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People think Nashville is a good club to use as a model. Well, sure they're competitive every year without any offensive allstars. They also can't win the big one. It's a much better situation than us, but it's not all great over there.

I think I'd rather use Chicago as a model.

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Old
03-17-2013, 04:09 PM
  #398
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angry_treefrog View Post
I always feel that you draft BPA.

On the other hand the D-man vs. forward decision here has another wrinkle.

The Panthers have an organizational need for excitement... for buzz.

A forward does that far better than a d-man - even if at the end of the day their effect on the W-L column is the same.

More buzz => more ticket sales => more $14 heinekens sold => more profits => more money to spend on team improvement

If Mac & Hubs start lighting it up on ESPN highlights, that will be very, very good for the Florida Panthers... much, much moreso than having a Shea Weber quality d-man would.
None of that is really going to be in the minds of the scouting staff. They'll simply relay a collective opinion on the "best player available".

Wins equal success. Sure, entertaining wins are great, but you plan for wins over entertainment, and if entertainment comes with it ... great.

They'll take whoever they think is the best player. Surely there is only so much inane speculation people can make over this? After awhile, pretty much everything that can be said has been said.

Maybe if you wished to approach it from a more analytical stand point, it would be of some interest. Impact Forwards tend to be selected higher in the draft, whereas impact defenseman are more common slightly lower. I also personally believe it's easier to find good solid defenseman than it is to find good scoring Forwards. Not that particular pertains to this situation. As a more general rule, i think it's easier to coach and find a D-core that can be reliable and effective than it is with Forward counter-parts. It's easier to coach defense than it is offense. Again, though, when we're talking about elite elite prospects ; how much of that is relevant?

The only thing i will say about Jones, is whilst he is a brilliant prospect and a viable #1 candidate, he's being proclaimed to early. I'd want to wait 4-5 years before believing he really is ahead of any other recent young defensive prospects.

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03-17-2013, 04:10 PM
  #399
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You know what else is depressing? Allowing 3.71 goals per game.
Even in years were we've had good goalies and good defense we haven't done anything because we can't score goals. They should rename the team the Florida CantScores. I am just SO TIRED of it. Also, if you actually have a good offense you keep the pressure on the other side, reducing chances against. In addition to that, if you play with the lead you can then change your playstyle to more conservative as the game goes on, again reducing chances against. A huge part of allowing 3.71 goals against is that we are always playing from behind. That won't change if we keep a crap forward core.

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03-17-2013, 04:26 PM
  #400
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Quote:
Originally Posted by angry_treefrog View Post
I always feel that you draft BPA.

On the other hand the D-man vs. forward decision here has another wrinkle.

The Panthers have an organizational need for excitement... for buzz.

A forward does that far better than a d-man - even if at the end of the day their effect on the W-L column is the same.

More buzz => more ticket sales => more $14 heinekens sold => more profits => more money to spend on team improvement

If Mac & Hubs start lighting it up on ESPN highlights, that will be very, very good for the Florida Panthers... much, much moreso than having a Shea Weber quality d-man would.
While I also think along those lines and think scoring is more exciting than trying to prevent scoring, one thing to bear in mind. The Atlanta Thrashers had Kovalchuk and Heatley and then Kovalchuk and Hossa. Lot of good it did them. Just saying.

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