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# Are playoffs still makeable?

03-16-2013, 08:15 PM
#151
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by oilchamp99 Were not 5 wins behind #8, we are 5 points behind, if we win and they lose, we gain 2 pts. Your way of thinking is actually giving the false impression were 5 games behind when in reality we are 2.5. Why over analyze it, its not only wrong but silly.
Because all the teams ahead of us aren't going to lose every game waiting for us to catch up.

The Oilers can't just win their next 2 games and be in 8th place. Odds are that at least 1-2 of the teams ahead of them in the standings would also win their two games. The Oilers would have to win 5-6 in a row to temporarily get into 8th.

Ignoring the fact that all the teams ahead of the Oilers will also be picking up points is delusional.

03-16-2013, 08:35 PM
#152
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by oilchamp99 Were not 5 wins behind #8, we are 5 points behind, if we win and they lose, we gain 2 pts. Your way of thinking is actually giving the false impression were 5 games behind when in reality we are 2.5. Why over analyze it, its not only wrong but silly.
Actually, he is right, think of it in terms of baseball's "magic number"...we need a combination of oiler wins and (the 8th place teams') losses to add up to 5 just to get even in points with them!.

8th place is currently 4 games over .500 and we are 1 game under...do the math, it adds up to 5 total, you still need to win at least 3 and have the other team lose 2 just to even up with them, although games played is in play as well, again similar to baseball, so you're right about the 2.5 games, because we have played a different number of games than 7th and 8th place teams.

Either way, we are done like dinner, it wont happen with all the teams playing each other, and 1/2 of the teams getting 2 points every night, makes it pretty much impossible.

 03-16-2013, 08:37 PM #153 AM Registered User     Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 4,949 vCash: 500 All we need is a 6 game winning streak and were back in with a chance!
 03-16-2013, 08:43 PM #154 raab Where's the Hart?     Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 8,493 vCash: 50 We just need to win! With a bit of luck and if we beat the right teams and go on a bit of a roll we'll get in. Here's hoping!!
03-16-2013, 09:41 PM
#155
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by dixs35 do you honestly see them going 14-7
Nope.

 03-16-2013, 09:43 PM #156 Oiltankjob Fail Registered User     Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,693 vCash: 50 So many 3pt games in west in the teams we are chasing. Clb Phx Ana Stl tonight watch Kings Sharks and Nucks Wings games go to overtime as well.
03-16-2013, 09:44 PM
#157
Valic
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by oilernut toppep?
You shall not bring up the TOPPEP! The TOPPEP will show its self when it is time...

 03-16-2013, 11:10 PM #158 nexttothemoon light.end.tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Northern Alberta Country: Posts: 10,363 vCash: 50 That last roadtrip was indicative of the whole season in a nutshell for the Oilers. They got 8 pts in 9 games and I think most were happy with that result overall. Players, coaches and even fans seemed generally content that by winning the last couple games of that trip they had somehow salvaged that trip and 8 pts in 9 games was "ok"... even decent. Problem is... that's simply mediocre and if they are always in a perpetual state of being content with slightly less than a pt per game on the road they'll never get anywhere. At home the team is basically mediocre as well. 11 pts in 11 games. Not good enough to actually achieve anything except being able to book early tee times on April 28th. It sounds illogical... but essentially every team in the West is going to be at least a ".500 team" this season. Getting a point a game in the West is no great shakes... it's what every team will be able to muster this year. Maybe 15th will be below that level but not by much. Oilers can't just shoot for a near pt per game pace on the road and then play mediocre at home... a win.. a loss.. a shootout/overtime loss. That pattern is something any team in the West can achieve and I think the whole mindset of the team from the management/coaching on down to the players is one based on mediocrity and that a .500 team is "pretty good"... decent... and shows they are progressing. Problem is that every team in the West is "pretty good" if you use that low bar to judge their quality. In short... no chance in hell at the playoffs until they get out of that mediocre mindset that I think has infected the org. I truly think this team has it in them to achieve much more than they have so far but ironically, for a team that is coached by someone who apparently is very talented in motivating and teaching positivity... this is a team that is a case study in mediocrity and accepting subpar results.
 03-17-2013, 12:00 AM #159 SterlingArcher Registered User   Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 462 vCash: 500 I think the reason fans and maybe players and coaches were satisfied with it is because we were so used to failure on inadequacy that mediocre was a step up. Making the playoffs would be a huge boon for us but if we are at least battling for it late this season and just miss out it will be a much needed improvement over the last couple of years.
 03-17-2013, 12:01 AM #160 Oiltankjob Fail Registered User     Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,693 vCash: 50 Win outright tomorrow we are in tenth , don't blow it Oilers.
03-17-2013, 01:47 AM
#161
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by SterlingArcher I think the reason fans and maybe players and coaches were satisfied with it is because we were so used to failure on inadequacy that mediocre was a step up. Making the playoffs would be a huge boon for us but if we are at least battling for it late this season and just miss out it will be a much needed improvement over the last couple of years.
I agree with the bolded, and even though i personally feel the playoffs are out of reach because of the conference schedule and all the 3pt games, the team has to play every game like its a playoff game right to the last game of the season, if nothing else, it will give them playoff-type experience...they need to get physical, including players that dont normally play that style, since the playoffs are much more intense battles.

If they do that and dont have much success, at least we will know what we have going forward and what we need to try to aquire in order to build a playoff type team.

03-17-2013, 02:20 AM
#162
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Valic You shall not bring up the TOPPEP! The TOPPEP will show its self when it is time...
once upon a time toppep ran free and clear from glaciers atop high mountains. much like Jesus, its force will soon be resurrected and stanley cups will flow in plentiful bounty to the True believers.

03-17-2013, 09:39 AM
#163
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Valic You shall not bring up the TOPPEP! The TOPPEP will show its self when it is time...
we need to replace it with the Horcoff Effect

 03-17-2013, 11:39 AM #164 Psychoil Registered User   Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,936 vCash: 500 Oh man, just the thought of a playoff race that involves Edmonton makes me almost cry! Come on oilers! Get ur **** together and win!
 03-17-2013, 12:28 PM #165 Gret99zky Worst Thread Ever     Join Date: May 2007 Location: Gamma Quadrant Country: Posts: 4,995 vCash: 9950 I don't think the playoffs are going to happen this year. JMO. 10% chance maybe.
03-17-2013, 03:23 PM
#166
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 Originally Posted by psycho dad and we had the pieces to make a run. Unless some oiler turns godly in the next five games, the vault must be kept sealed.

^^

qft

03-17-2013, 03:34 PM
#167
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 Originally Posted by Gret99zky I don't think the playoffs are going to happen this year. JMO. 10% chance maybe.
11.4% to be exact.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html

Need 12-6-3 or better record to have a shot.

Doable, but the team needs to put together some win streaks. And the Oilers haven't been able to get more than a 2 game win streak all season.

 03-17-2013, 03:40 PM #168 Sloth Slothersons* They cut my beard   Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Planet Earth Country: Posts: 5,329 vCash: 500 We don't lose in regulation for the rest of the season.
 03-17-2013, 03:48 PM #169 nexttothemoon light.end.tunnel     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Northern Alberta Country: Posts: 10,363 vCash: 50 http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi That method shows a 16.5% chance of playoffs. Of course the real determinant of whether they make it or not rests in the brains of those 23 players + the coach. The team has what it takes in terms of skills... they just can't put it together on a mental basis consistently enough. It's the frustrating stage of the rebuild... where you can obviously see the talent exists but no way they can put that talent into action on the ice often enough to achieve a playoff berth. They'll likely stay 3-5 pts back of 8th for the rest of the season. Next year time once again.
 03-17-2013, 09:28 PM #170 Oiltankjob Fail Registered User     Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,693 vCash: 50 Up to 10th conference 2 points out still hoping.
03-17-2013, 09:37 PM
#171
timekeep
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 Originally Posted by Oiltankjob 4 93 64 Up to 10th conference 2 points out still hoping.
This team should be able to compete for eigth, a couple of upgrade trades would be the difference but no one wants to part with almost half the team, including Tambo. Gotta consider Gagner moving. Hemmer might only get prospects, should get them something of value right now.

 03-17-2013, 09:39 PM #172 oilchamp99 Registered User   Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Edmonton Country: Posts: 202 vCash: 500 LA sweeps PHX at home, ANA beats SJ, then we beat SJ, everything in regulation. Boom!!tied for 8th as of Wednesday night. Easy peasy......but highly unlikely.
03-17-2013, 09:54 PM
#173
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 Originally Posted by timekeep This team should be able to compete for eigth, a couple of upgrade trades would be the difference but no one wants to part with almost half the team, including Tambo. Gotta consider Gagner moving. Hemmer might only get prospects, should get them something of value right now.
Trading Gagner now would be stupid. Take him out of the lineup and you are taking the leading goalscorer and the leading overall point scorer on the team.

What does the team look like down the middle with him out?

RNH
Horcoff
Belanger
Lander
VV

5 goals and 19 pts for all of them combined.

No way they can trade Gagner now because I doubt they fill that offensive hole at centre with the player they get in return (logically why would a team give up an equally solid offensive C for Gagner?).

 03-17-2013, 09:59 PM #174 Matt Ryan Falcons Rise Up     Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Atlanta Country: Posts: 3,178 vCash: 50 I think SJS is beatable because their offense blows, and Niemi hasn't been great lately. It'll come down to the STL games IMO. We need at least two points out of the four, and we also need at least a point in the upcoming NSH and VAN games. Teams I am worried about: PHX - We need them to take a tumble SJS - They are sliding, but we have an opportunity to be up on par with them VAN - The possibility of leapfrogging is there DAL - 1 point up but they have 1 point in hand with more ROWs. We need them to lose. We also can't control their destiny because we've already played them 3 times. Teams I am not worried about: COL - Down and out CBJ - Game in hand, and they'll fall back down to earth CALGARY - We have 3 games against them. That will be the single most important stretch for us. We are 2 points up, but they have 2 games in hand. They also have a fairly easy schedule in their next 3 games. I know they suck, but even if they pull out some wins, we have the chance to shut them down in a few weeks. Rest of the teams are out of reach right now.
03-17-2013, 10:05 PM
#175
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 Originally Posted by Matt Ryan I think SJS is beatable because their offense blows, and Niemi hasn't been great lately. It'll come down to the STL games IMO. We need at least two points out of the four, and we also need at least a point in the upcoming NSH and VAN games. Teams I am worried about: PHX - We need them to take a tumble SJS - They are sliding, but we have an opportunity to be up on par with them VAN - The possibility of leapfrogging is there DAL - 1 point up but they have 1 point in hand with more ROWs. We need them to lose. We also can't control their destiny because we've already played them 3 times. Teams I am not worried about: COL - Down and out CBJ - Game in hand, and they'll fall back down to earth CALGARY - We have 3 games against them. That will be the single most important stretch for us. We are 2 points up, but they have 2 games in hand. They also have a fairly easy schedule in their next 3 games. I know they suck, but even if they pull out some wins, we have the chance to shut them down in a few weeks. Rest of the teams are out of reach right now.
Phx im not worried about they have 8 home games left 12 on road Oilers are 12 home 8 road , Pretty sure we catch them Sharks Im worried about as well as Calgary as their secondaey scoring is good although they have 13 left on road. Dallas is just not a good team.

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