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Playoff Chances Watch / Predictions / Hopes / Dreams Thread

View Poll Results: Which way do you hope/think/believe/want the Sabres will/to go
Tank 19 47.50%
Playoffs 15 37.50%
Irrelevancy 6 15.00%
Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-17-2013, 03:30 AM
  #1
Squantosawuss
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Playoff Chances Watch / Predictions / Hopes / Dreams Thread

The Sabres have 24 points with 20 games to play. I figure the 8th place team will need about 56 points, meaning the Sabres have to gather 32 points over 20 games.

That basically requires going 16-4 in the remaining 20.

3/17 Buffalo @ Washington
3/19 Buffalo @ Montreal
3/21 Toronto @ Buffalo
3/23 Buffalo @ Montreal
3/26 Buffalo @ Tampa Bay
3/28 Buffalo @ Florida
3/30 Washington @ Buffalo
3/31 Boston @ Buffalo
4/02 Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
4/05 Ottawa @ Buffalo
4/07 New Jersey @ Buffalo
4/09 Buffalo @ Winnipeg
4/11 Montreal @ Buffalo
4/13 Philadelphia @ Buffalo
4/14 Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
4/17 Buffalo @ Boston
4/19 NY Rangers @ Buffalo
4/20 Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
4/22 Winnipeg @ Buffalo
4/26 NY Islanders @ Buffalo

If you believe the Sabres cannot possibly make the playoffs this season, which game is likely the final nail in the coffin, where a loss renders them mathematically incapable of landing in 8th?

Personally, after looking at the remaining schedule, I think their playoff hopes are far more dismal than their point total/ranking indicates at first glance.

I think if they get really lucky, they could manage to keep the dream alive only until the Boston game on the 31st, although i wouldn't be at all surprised if they're out of it by this time next week.


Last edited by Squantosawuss: 03-17-2013 at 03:36 AM.
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Old
03-17-2013, 03:39 AM
  #2
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The first two games under Rolston told me enough at that point. If we weren't going to turn it around attitude wise as a team wi a new voice behind the bench, playoffs weren't going to happen. So I don't know how to answer this.

I'm expecting some sort of uncomfortable improvement in our record that has us on the fringe of the top-5 draft picks. A home run this draft would certainly be ideal

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Old
03-17-2013, 04:12 AM
  #3
wunderpanda
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We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.

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Old
03-17-2013, 04:24 AM
  #4
Squantosawuss
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs.
Easily?

They can only lose 4 out of 20 games. They'll probably lose 4 over the next 6 or 8.

Quote:
All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.
Well, those problems haven't stopped most teams from beating them so far. The Sabres play poorly more than not...and have arguably THE worst special teams combo in the league.

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03-17-2013, 05:29 AM
  #5
tsujimoto74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
No...The point is to get someone much, much better than Zagrapan, and probably better than at least half of our current roster.

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Old
03-17-2013, 05:36 AM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.


Um...what's that there?

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Old
03-17-2013, 09:01 AM
  #7
Ace1963
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You guys did a great job putting Coach Rasputin on the unemployment line.

Stop the ridiculous run for 8th place talk, and get to work tarring and feathering Regier!

Hanging him in effigy at the games would be a good start!

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Old
03-17-2013, 09:59 PM
  #8
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After watching them play against the Capitals tonight I would say they are officially out of the playoffs now.

Ryan Miller looks like he purposely tanking to get traded elsewhere. Lackluster at best in net and the rest of the team looks like they're going through the motions too.

A total clean out has to be done on this team because they're playing like they could care less and it shows.

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Old
03-17-2013, 10:02 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
It's even more sad that you believe we will make the playoffs. Good lord man, open your eyes.

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Old
03-17-2013, 10:03 PM
  #10
1972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
so much wrong in this post I don't know where to start

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Old
03-17-2013, 10:06 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
I want to lose because I want to ensure that the entire staff and front office is fired at seasons end.

This franchise is broken, but we have the owner to fix it... Just need the right Gm and coach.

I also want us to sell hard at the deadline and build for the future.... This core has never been good enough, and they won't be around by the time the players around them are good enough to make them second options.

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Old
03-17-2013, 11:52 PM
  #12
wunderpanda
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
I want to lose because I want to ensure that the entire staff and front office is fired at seasons end.

This franchise is broken, but we have the owner to fix it... Just need the right Gm and coach.

I also want us to sell hard at the deadline and build for the future.... This core has never been good enough, and they won't be around by the time the players around them are good enough to make them second options.
I want the team to win, if they lose those changes may or may not happen. Just seems wrong for fans to root against their team.

I fully understand your reasoning and can agree with most of it, except wanting to lose.

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Old
03-18-2013, 12:22 AM
  #13
Karate Johnson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
I want the team to win, if they lose those changes may or may not happen. Just seems wrong for fans to root against their team.

I fully understand your reasoning and can agree with most of it, except wanting to lose.

I don't like this team. I find Miller extremely hard to root for. So it's pretty easy to not mind if they lose.


It also have never mattered what a fan wants the team to do, so I just watch the game keep an eye on the few players I want to watch develop, and let them do what they do best... Lose.

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Old
03-18-2013, 01:05 AM
  #14
McTankel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
Wait, Zagrapan was a top 3 pick?

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Old
03-18-2013, 01:52 AM
  #15
SilverNitro23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
I want the team to win, if they lose those changes may or may not happen. Just seems wrong for fans to root against their team.

I fully understand your reasoning and can agree with most of it, except wanting to lose.
Well, from a personal point of view, while I will still always cheer for the Sabres to win, it's just harder to passionately follow the team as much as I did back in '06 and '07.

So as of right now, I want more of the excitements that the team had when they were in the playoff, and actually is winning more than losing, and realistically, the best way is to set ourselves up for a better team in the future, hopefully as soon as next season, is to shoot toward obtaining higher end talents in the draft.

I think I would be more excited about seeing a new top-end prospect play for the sabres next year and the next several years, than try to push for the playoffs for this season, and only this season when the likelihood of making it, let alone advance to the cup final is near-impossible.

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Old
03-18-2013, 02:00 PM
  #16
Sentrix
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Absolutely ridiculous to suggest making the playoffs will be easy.
But I do think it's possible - pretty much any team in the NHL (ours included) can catch fire at any time.

It's highly unlikely.
If we break up the top line (VHP), and spread that talent around to get scoring and success (like last year's just-short playoff push) our marginal chances improve a bit.

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Old
03-18-2013, 02:12 PM
  #17
Have My Baby Pierre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
We can easily win enough to make the playoffs. The only longshot game are against the Penguins and Habs. All the rest have injuries, bad goalies or Tortorella.

Its sad people want to lose for a chance to draft the next Zagrapan.
Zagrapan was a 13th overall pick..it's not unusual at all for players taken around there to bust.

However, it is a lot more rare for a top 3 player to bust.

Last 10 drafts not counting 2012 since that's too early.

2011 - RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2010 - Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2009 - Tavares, Hedman, Kane
2008 - Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2007 - Kane, JVR, Turris
2006 - Johnson, Staal, Toews
2005 - Crosby, Ryan, Johnson
2004 - Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker
2003 - Fleury, Staal, Horton

People want us to tank so we can get a chance at potential star like many of the players listed above, putting together a winning streak and finishing 9th-11th could get us another Zagrapan though..

Here are the 13th overall players for reference

2011 - Sven Baertschi
2010 - Brandon Gormley
2009 - Zack Kassian
2008 - Colten Teubert
2007 - Lars Eller
2006 - Jiri Tlusty
2005 - Marek Zagrapan
2004 - Drew Stafford
2003 - Dustin Brown

It makes perfect sense for fans to want the Sabres to lose and get a top 3 pick, especially since it's near impossible to build a team through free agency nowadays.


Last edited by Have My Baby Pierre: 03-18-2013 at 02:23 PM.
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Old
03-18-2013, 02:43 PM
  #18
BuiltTagonTough
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I'm betting either 3/30 or 4/02 will be the final nail if it doesn't come sooner.

We aren't making the playoffs.

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03-18-2013, 04:36 PM
  #19
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I'll go with 3/30 Washington @ Buffalo.

That only, if Buffalo doesn't go worse than 3-1-1 in the next 5 games until then.

NJD, WPG and TOR currently have 32 points in 29 games. Expanding that to 48 games would require us to have at least 53 points to make the playoffs. So I set the threshold a bit lower than the threadstarter. Doesn't change a lot however. Winning 15 games out of the next 19 is mandatory.

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03-18-2013, 05:02 PM
  #20
Ron C.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Have My Baby Pierre View Post
Zagrapan was a 13th overall pick..it's not unusual at all for players taken around there to bust.

However, it is a lot more rare for a top 3 player to bust.

Last 10 drafts not counting 2012 since that's too early.

2011 - RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2010 - Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2009 - Tavares, Hedman, Kane
2008 - Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2007 - Kane, JVR, Turris
2006 - Johnson, Staal, Toews
2005 - Crosby, Ryan, Johnson
2004 - Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker
2003 - Fleury, Staal, Horton


People want us to tank so we can get a chance at potential star like many of the players listed above, putting together a winning streak and finishing 9th-11th could get us another Zagrapan though..

Here are the 13th overall players for reference

2011 - Sven Baertschi
2010 - Brandon Gormley
2009 - Zack Kassian
2008 - Colten Teubert
2007 - Lars Eller
2006 - Jiri Tlusty
2005 - Marek Zagrapan
2004 - Drew Stafford
2003 - Dustin Brown

It makes perfect sense for fans to want the Sabres to lose and get a top 3 pick, especially since it's near impossible to build a team through free agency nowadays.
2012- L.A. Kings

2011 - Boston Bruins

2010- Chicago Blackhawks

2009- Pittsburgh Penguins

2008- Detroit Red Wings

2007- Anaheim Ducks

2006- Carolina Hurricanes


2005-Lockout


Look at both of these lists, any similarities? Since the lockout, every team to win the cup (with the exception of Detroit) has had 2 or more top 4 picks in the draft. Detroit won with 3 or possibly 4 HOF'ers on the roster. The Sabres need a top 2 pick this year.

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Old
03-18-2013, 05:05 PM
  #21
1972
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can Buffalo be mathematically eliminated in the next 5 games?

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03-18-2013, 05:18 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
can Buffalo be mathematically eliminated in the next 5 games?
They are still a ways off from being officially mathematically eliminated, but a few losses will take their chances from like 0.5% to 0.00001%, as they'll get to a point where they'd need to win out and need another team to basically win none of their remaining games.

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03-18-2013, 05:23 PM
  #23
koarl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
can Buffalo be mathematically eliminated in the next 5 games?
No.
That depends on the actual cut at the 8th seed, which will cannot be determined until the end of the season .

But if it's 53 points, we are mathematically out, yes, as 14 games only give 28 points.

In the 94/95 lockout season, the 8th seed had 47 points, for example. That just depends on how much other mediocre teams suck at the end of the season .
In 96/97, the 8th seed was at 77P in 82GP, that would mean 45 points in 48 games, by points-per-game calculation.
However, in the last 10 years the lowest point total by an 8th seed was 88 (MTL in 09/10).

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Old
03-18-2013, 05:24 PM
  #24
AirBriere48
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
They are still a ways off from being officially mathematically eliminated, but a few losses will take their chances from like 0.5% to 0.00001%, as they'll get to a point where they'd need to win out and need another team to basically win none of their remaining games.
Hopefully this happens before the trade deadline, leaving DR no choice but to sell, sell, sell.

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Old
03-18-2013, 05:36 PM
  #25
Ron C.
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Here is a fun site to watch the odds for both playoffs and draft pick:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Buffalo.html

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