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What will Matt Irwin's next contract be and when?

View Poll Results: Matt Irwin's next contract
$500k-$1M 12 19.05%
$1M-$2M 45 71.43%
$2M-$3M 3 4.76%
$3M-$4M 2 3.17%
Will sign in: April 4 6.35%
Will sign in: May 5 7.94%
Will sign in: Off-season 18 28.57%
Will sign for: 1yr 1 1.59%
Will sign for: 2yr 17 26.98%
Will sign for: 3yr+ 11 17.46%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 63. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-19-2013, 05:42 PM
  #51
AstroDan
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Originally Posted by Chubbs View Post
Well the top-6 has been taking really bad shots lately, considering we average about 2 goals a game.

If his shooting percentage is high, that's something that will likely drop off. He's getting a ton of shots through, but that is also something that will likely regress. Fact is the sample size is way too small to draw any concrete conclusions yet. We'll have a better picture when he plays more, and we'll have a better understanding of his skillset once teams start realizing he's not useless offensively like Murray and most of Dan Boyle's recent partners.

Your argument sounds like a false dichotomy. It certainly isn't the only answer.
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
How is it a false dichotomy? Please explain it to me. And yes, I did take symbolic logic so you don't have to explain what a false dichotomy is to me.

So Irwin's shooting percentage will regress down, but his on-ice shooting percentage won't regress up? Now that's a huge double standard. Either you believe that his true shooting talent is 11.4%, which would be Stamkosian for a defenseman, or you believe in random variance. There's nothing false about that dichotomy.
Ooooof. My head hurts. He looks good on the ice to me. Talk about paralysis by analysis.
Do you guys even enjoy watching hockey, or is it all about esoteric logic/statistics?
Not trying to spitball here, but I think his NHL skill is due to the NHL coaching he's been recieving.

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Old
03-19-2013, 05:59 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by AstroDan View Post
Ooooof. My head hurts. He looks good on the ice to me. Talk about paralysis by analysis.
Do you guys even enjoy watching hockey, or is it all about esoteric logic/statistics?
Not trying to spitball here, but I think his NHL skill is due to the NHL coaching he's been recieving.
I hate hockey. Every game I watch is pure torture. I like to talk in statistics because it weeds out the weak peasants like you.













I love hockey, I just also like having a way to attempt to objectively quantify all the things I can't keep track of while watching hockey. It's one thing to say "Player X looks good defensively by eye", and quite another to say "Player X starts very often in the defensive zone, but still manages to push play in the right direction". One can be disputed, one cannot. Anyone can say "Player Y is good defensivly", and anyone can conversely say "Player Y is poor defensively". Who's right? You can argue things by eye, but who has the time to pay attention to all those little details 100% of the time when you're trying to enjoy a hockey game? I'd rather enjoy a game, then look at it's underlying numbers, then try to see how I can explain the numbers with what I observed during the game.

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03-19-2013, 06:36 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
OK, we'll go with 60...

Cheechoo lead the WorSharks in scoring with 47 points in 10-11, and John McCarthy lead the WorSharks in 11-12 with that same 47 point total. Last season Irwin was second on the team on scoring at 42 points.

Your numbers are unreasonable considering the circumstances Irwin played.
You are misunderstanding me. I am saying, that if Irwin is really a 41-point Dman at the NHL level, then he should be doing a lot better at the AHL level.

I actually think that his AHL performace has been impressive...but it indicates, at his age, that his ceiling is closer to a 5-6 guy than a 2-3 guy. Again, sometimes there are exceptions, but I doubt Irwin is one.

After all, aren't Cheechoo and McCarthy proving my point? Both are barely NHL-caliber forwards (though obviously MCcarthy is young, which is why his stats are a bit more impressive), and they did well in the AHL.

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03-19-2013, 06:37 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
Those numbers are unreasonable for a d-man period.
They aren't unreasonable at all. It is just that the majority of defensemen who could score at that pace in the AHL already have top-3 roles on an NHL team.

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03-19-2013, 06:42 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
Just for kicks I looked up the top scoring defensemen in the AHL over the last few seasons.

This season the highest scoring AHL defenseman so far is Justin Schultz (18-30-48). He hasn't payed an AHL game since January 5th. The highest scoring "real" AHL defenseman is Mark Barberio (62 games, 8-32-40). He plays for Syracuse, which is the highest scoring team in the league...the closest team is 17 goals behind them. So Barberio has a shot at the 60 point plateau. No other blueliner has a chance without a bunch of records falling.

Last season, the leading defenseman scorer was Barberio (74 games, 13-48-61). He played for Norfolk (and won the Calder Cup), which was the Lightning's affiliate before moving it to SYR this season. Norfolk lead the AHL in goals scored BY 28 GOALS!!! The next highest scoring defenseman was Brian Connelly (72 games, 6-46-52)

In 2010-11 (hey, it's snowing here and I'm bored ) Marc-Andre Gragnani lead defenseman in scoring (63 games, 12-48-60). He hit that "mystical" point plateau, but his NHL career hasn't been all that good (74 games, 3-15-18). Andre Benoit was next for d-men (73 games, 11-44-55).

We'll go back one more season, to 2009-10...Danny Groulx!!!! San Jose property!!!! (80 games, 14-52-66). He hit over the mythical (read: totally random ) point plateau!!!! Not a single person who has ever watched Groulx play thinks he was ever an NHL calibre defenseman. Grand total of NHL games played: zero. That season another AHL defenseman hit the 60 point level...Clay Wilson (75 games, 14-46-60). I'm guessing most here will have to go look him up.
Justin Schultz was young. That is the difference. Had he continued in the AHL, I am sure he would have put up a ppg season. His talents are better served helping the NHL club.

It would be different if Irwin was 21-22, had put up 42 points in the AHL, and then after a season or two in the NHLm started scoring as he is now. Heck, it would be different if Irwin were 27-28, had put up 42 points in the AHL, and then after a season or two in the NHL started scoring as he is now. How does he go from being a pp.5g AHL player to pp.5g NHL player so suddenly? Is the AHL team that bad?

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03-19-2013, 07:45 PM
  #56
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You were asked to define "very productive" in the AHL. As you can see, there have been very few defensemen in the AHL that fit your definition. You had every chance to qualify your remark before, so you'll forgive me if I find it funny you choose to qualify them after it was shown that virtually no defensemen were "very productive" based on your definition.

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03-19-2013, 07:49 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
You were asked to define "very productive" in the AHL. As you can see, there have been very few defensemen in the AHL that fit your definition. You had every chance to qualify your remark before, so you'll forgive me if I find it funny you choose to qualify them after it was shown that virtually no defensemen were "very productive" based on your definition.
There are very few defensemen that fit that definition, because the vast majority of defensemen that could get those kinds of numbers are playing in the NHL. As I said, for him to be playing at a 41 point pace in the NHL, I'd expect 55-60 points at the AHL level.

We are saying, that a player who was about at a ~.5ppg pace in the AHL is really able to maintain that pace at the NHL level? I am dubious...

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03-19-2013, 07:50 PM
  #58
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I picked 2-3M based off DW's terrible past history of giving contract raises based off potential. Remember what he gave Carle?

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03-19-2013, 08:03 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Bizz06 View Post
I picked 2-3M based off DW's terrible past history of giving contract raises based off potential. Remember what he gave Carle?
Carle was young and coming off a very, very good season. He had had the best rookie year (points wise) since Brian Leetch...is that correct?

I had no issue with the contract at the time. Despite the slow start, Carle was looking like the second-coming of Nick Lidstrom. Hockey sense off the charts!

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03-19-2013, 08:08 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
There are very few defensemen that fit that definition, because the vast majority of defensemen that could get those kinds of numbers are playing in the NHL. As I said, for him to be playing at a 41 point pace in the NHL, I'd expect 55-60 points at the AHL level.

We are saying, that a player who was about at a ~.5ppg pace in the AHL is really able to maintain that pace at the NHL level? I am dubious...
I see your train of thought. But you are discounting development altogether.

It may be hyperbole, but the nhl D men in your category most likely skipped the AHL.

Also, your forward group matters. A top 3 d man is getting most of his points from assists, quite a few secondary, and that doesn't always translate to the AHL. It's not as cut and dry as a 60 PT AHL player will do 40+ in the nhl.

Do I think Irwin tops put as a number 1/2. Probably not, unless he fixes his skating and positioning. But it's nothing to do with his AHL production.

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:25 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by AstroDan View Post
Ooooof. My head hurts. He looks good on the ice to me. Talk about paralysis by analysis.
Do you guys even enjoy watching hockey, or is it all about esoteric logic/statistics?
Not trying to spitball here, but I think his NHL skill is due to the NHL coaching he's been recieving.
Speaking about over-analyzing people who I question whether they even enjoy the sport...where did that les wynan guy disappear to?

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03-19-2013, 10:06 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by lsx View Post
Speaking about over-analyzing people who I question whether they even enjoy the sport...where did that les wynan guy disappear to?
Les was not a real person. He was a glitch in the Matrix. The remainder of an unbalanced equation.

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03-19-2013, 10:09 PM
  #63
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Les was not a real person. He was a glitch in the Matrix. The remainder of an unbalanced equation.

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03-19-2013, 10:10 PM
  #64
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Les was not a real person. He was a glitch in the Matrix. The remainder of an unbalanced equation.
Well-played.

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03-20-2013, 12:56 AM
  #65
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Just keep it under 1.5 mil for up to 3 years and im cool with it.

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03-20-2013, 01:33 AM
  #66
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Idk but he has been awful the last 2 games. Demers is better.

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03-20-2013, 03:08 AM
  #67
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Speaking about over-analyzing people who I question whether they even enjoy the sport...where did that les wynan guy disappear to?
He was the funniest poster on these boards. Also notice how once he left the Sharks started sucking. Coincidence? I don't think so.

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03-20-2013, 10:20 AM
  #68
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My guess is a two year deal, year one being $750k/$125k and year two being $800k
I agree with this.

He's doing well so far, not quite proven/seasoned enough to get Demers like dollars.

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03-20-2013, 10:36 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
I hate hockey. Every game I watch is pure torture. I like to talk in statistics because it weeds out the weak peasants like you.



I love hockey, I just also like having a way to attempt to objectively quantify all the things I can't keep track of while watching hockey. You can argue things by eye, but who has the time to pay attention to all those little details 100% of the time when you're trying to enjoy a hockey game?
While the game is playing, especially at the game, but even on TV, I can see that a player or a team is doing things right or wrong. Positioning, break-out speed, crispness of passes, goalies rebound control etc all point to the level of effort today. I need look at no stats, or the breakdown post-game to know that Boyle is better than Braun. Jumbo is better (or worse today) than Galliardi etc...
I find the dynamics, during the action, of the evolving levels of compete to be completely absorbable and when I'm leaning in my chair as a Shark D-man chips a puck off the boards trying to clear and an O-man pinches it to stay in, that he failed. I guess all those thing in real time are what make the game good.
Gotta love SHARKS hockey, both the good and the bad.

Sometimes being a peasant is a relief!

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03-20-2013, 11:16 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
There are very few defensemen that fit that definition, because the vast majority of defensemen that could get those kinds of numbers are playing in the NHL. As I said, for him to be playing at a 41 point pace in the NHL, I'd expect 55-60 points at the AHL level.

We are saying, that a player who was about at a ~.5ppg pace in the AHL is really able to maintain that pace at the NHL level? I am dubious...
That's not how it works ..It's not a video game. You don't just always score more in the AHL than in the NHL. While your opposition may be slightly less talented, so are your teammates and coaching sometimes. Linemates, teamates, defence partners, development strategy and system would all play a major part in this area.

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03-20-2013, 11:57 AM
  #71
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That's not how it works ..It's not a video game. You don't just always score more in the AHL than in the NHL. While your opposition may be slightly less talented, so are your teammates and coaching sometimes. Linemates, teamates, defence partners, development strategy and system would all play a major part in this area.
You don't always, but generally, you do.

On the second part, agreed. But I don't think that can account for such a massive performance difference.

Remember, the fundamental question is, is Irwin's production over 18 games a true measure of his expected production?

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03-20-2013, 12:19 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
You don't always, but generally, you do.

On the second part, agreed. But I don't think that can account for such a massive performance difference.

Remember, the fundamental question is, is Irwin's production over 18 games a true measure of his expected production?
No, but more often than not Defensemen start off slow offensively and get better as time goes on. Irwin is playing against very tough competition and all of his underlying stats say he's not only earning those points, but probably getting a little bit cheated by luck. It's not definitive, but if you had to guess whether he will improve or decline the stats say improve.

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03-20-2013, 12:32 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by AstroDan View Post
While the game is playing, especially at the game, but even on TV, I can see that a player or a team is doing things right or wrong. Positioning, break-out speed, crispness of passes, goalies rebound control etc all point to the level of effort today. I need look at no stats, or the breakdown post-game to know that Boyle is better than Braun. Jumbo is better (or worse today) than Galliardi etc...
I find the dynamics, during the action, of the evolving levels of compete to be completely absorbable and when I'm leaning in my chair as a Shark D-man chips a puck off the boards trying to clear and an O-man pinches it to stay in, that he failed. I guess all those thing in real time are what make the game good.
Gotta love SHARKS hockey, both the good and the bad.

Sometimes being a peasant is a relief!
You can tell little things, but do you keep track of who starts in the defensive zone? Which matchups the coaches are trying to get? Who's carrying the puck into the zone the most, and who has the most controlled entries? Who likes to dump and chase?

Obviously, you can tell that Joe Thornton is better than TJ Galiardi. No duh. But that is extremely, extremely shallow analysis. You can tell (sometimes) who had a good game, who had a bad game. You can remember little things that stick out in your mind. But trying to have a good analysis on the game while you're watching it just ruins the game. And I need a good analysis.

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03-20-2013, 12:59 PM
  #74
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You can tell (sometimes) who had a good game
Uh, you can tell that every time, it's called the "three stars" and they do it after every game.



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03-20-2013, 01:57 PM
  #75
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No, but more often than not Defensemen start off slow offensively and get better as time goes on. Irwin is playing against very tough competition and all of his underlying stats say he's not only earning those points, but probably getting a little bit cheated by luck. It's not definitive, but if you had to guess whether he will improve or decline the stats say improve.
Like I said, this would make sense if he was putting up these kinds of stats after 1-3 years in the NHL. Then, I could say he "developed" into it.

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