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The success of Anaheim shows that Boudreau is an excellent coach.

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:32 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by LetsGoBears View Post
Mind posting the regular season ranks of the Finals teams the past couple, 2 or more, years?
No, because I don't know what Fenwick actually is.What I was reacting to is the arrogant remarks that are always sent out by fans of mediocre teams that are succesful for half a season. Last year it was the Wild which got really lucky with shooting percentages and stuff through the first half, and the regression (not the injuries) were the reason they fell off in the 2nd half. But while team is on a hot streak, their fans will just try to ridicule everyone and eevrything that disagrees.

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03-19-2013, 09:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league. They are this year's Minnesota but with only 20 games to collapse instead of 50. They will regress heavily. Boudreau is also a bad coach but mostly for other reasons.
Don't let the secrets out, man. Although I do think Boudreau is a good coach. The issue as you alluded to is the shortened season doesn't allow for much regression.

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03-19-2013, 09:36 PM
  #28
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I also don't think Anaheim is as good as their current record/streak indicates. They'll fizzle out, and at the wrong time too.

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03-19-2013, 09:37 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Schalkenullvier View Post
No, because I don't know what Fenwick actually is.What I was reacting to is the arrogant remarks that are always sent out by fans of mediocre teams that are succesful for half a season. Last year it was the Wild which got really lucky with shooting percentages and stuff through the first half, and the regression (not the injuries) were the reason they fell off in the 2nd half. But while team is on a hot streak, their fans will just try to ridicule everyone and eevrything that disagrees.
2nd best team. In the entire League.

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03-19-2013, 09:38 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Don't let the secrets out, man. Although I do think Boudreau is a good coach. The issue as you alluded to is the shortened season doesn't allow for much regression.
This sounds like an excuse. People loved the Minnesota/Dallas example. They weren't in the playoff picture after 48 games.

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03-19-2013, 09:39 PM
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Well the BBQ sauce all over his face in one of the interviews didn't help either lol.
That was classic. I liked him more after that.


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Old
03-19-2013, 09:41 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league. They are this year's Minnesota but with only 20 games to collapse instead of 50. They will regress heavily. Boudreau is also a bad coach but mostly for other reasons.
I wouldnt call them lucky but they seem similar to the 2007-2008 Montreal Canadiens or last year's St. Louis Blues. Everything is clicking for them.

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03-19-2013, 09:42 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by MMonarchs View Post
This sounds like an excuse. People loved the Minnesota/Phoenix example. They weren't in the playoff picture after 48 games.
What is an excuse? The shortened season doesn't allow for much regression? There's no rule as to how long it takes for regression to play out. It may not before the end of the playoffs. Minnesota crashed hard simply because they were that bad and lucky at the same time. Dallas was the darling of unsustainable percentages a couple years ago and it took them until essentially the last day of the season for a team that was not very good to just miss the playoffs. On the flip side, last season the Kings only got it turned around in time to make the playoffs and their season lasted long enough where they regressed to what they were - a puck possession juggernaut, that was helped by a game-changing trade that made them even better than should have been.

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03-19-2013, 09:47 PM
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I also don't think Anaheim is as good as their current record/streak indicates. They'll fizzle out, and at the wrong time too.
We packed it in yesterday actually, were looking to trade our stars while they are at high value so we can become good in a few years.

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03-19-2013, 09:49 PM
  #35
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What is an excuse? The shortened season doesn't allow for much regression? There's no rule as to how long it takes for regression to play out. It may not before the end of the playoffs. Minnesota crashed hard simply because they were that bad and lucky at the same time. Dallas was the darling of unsustainable percentages a couple years ago and it took them until essentially the last day of the season for a team that was not very good to just miss the playoffs.
It's a giant excuse. People used to compare this Ducks team to last years Wild team. That really doesn't work now, because the Ducks are still epic. Minnesota was out of the playoff picture by game 48, so there should be plenty of time for "regression to play out".

You seem to LOVE advanced statistics. I'd live for you to tell me the probability that a mediocre team like Anaheim could start the season this good. I'll give you a hint. It's pretty close to zero. Probably closer to zero than the probability of having a shooting percentage as high as they do. That right there pretty much blows up any unsustainable shooting percentage talk.

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03-19-2013, 09:52 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by MMonarchs View Post
It's a giant excuse. People used to compare this Ducks team to last years Wild team. That really doesn't work now, because the Ducks are still epic. Minnesota was out of the playoff picture by game 48, so there should be plenty of time for "regression to play out".

You seem to LOVE advanced statistics. I'd live for you to tell me the probability that a mediocre team like Anaheim could start the season this good. I'll give you a hint. It's pretty close to zero. Probably closer to zero than the probability of having a shooting percentage as high as they do. That right there pretty much blows up any unsustainable shooting percentage talk.
It's probably about the same as the Wild starting the way they did last year. There could be enough time for regression to play out. There may not be. It's not an excuse, it's math. Few people are predicting when it will happen, just that it will. Same thing's going to happen to Chicago.

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03-19-2013, 09:54 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by MMonarchs View Post
This sounds like an excuse. People loved the Minnesota/Dallas example. They weren't in the playoff picture after 48 games.
were they ever 18 games over .500?

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03-19-2013, 09:54 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league.
You have no idea what you're talking about, other than a few numbers that you're apparently not capable of putting in perspective. There was nothing fluky about Fasth's goaltending, nor was it remotely Vezina caliber. He was playing very solid, but hardly unbelievable. The Ducks play very well defensively and don't allow a lot of high-caliber scoring chances. Fasth (like Hiller now) is getting a ton of help, and both of these guys are making the saves they are supposed to make without being mistakeable for Vezina winners when you watch the game. It doesn't matter if you allow your opponent to take 40 shots a game from the outside. It matters a lot more that you don't allow eight of those in the slot. People are trying to force the complex game of hockey into a more statistically accessible frame while ignoring basic realities. The result, at times, is the numbers derived from that disagreeing with reality. Smart people can then take those numbers, see what happens on the ice, and take their lessons of that odd lack of a correlation. Others will believe that reality is wrong, in some way.

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:55 PM
  #39
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I remember when people would say things like: "Boudreau sucks as a coach. The only thing he knows how to do is triple shift Ovechkin when things are not going well...".

I'm sorry but Boudreau is great at managing his assets. Under his reign, the Caps were a well oiled machine... even before he got fired. The only reason why he was fired is because certain players did not want to be held accountable for their actions.

Not only do I believe he will win his second Jack Adams trophy, but I believe Anaheim will make it to the WCF.

Big Bruce may very well go back to DC next fall... to visit the White House.

Coaches have a shelf life. Sometimes things don't work, or a coach loses the team or some other team is just a better fit.

Or should we talk about what a great coach Michel Therrien is and how "certain players got him fired" while we're at it.

P.S his first year in Washington was when the Caps made that epic run to come back from 30th place in the league to get in the playoffs and Ovechkin got 65 goals.

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03-19-2013, 09:56 PM
  #40
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Hopefully our players realize their supposed to suck, AFTER they win the cup

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Old
03-19-2013, 09:57 PM
  #41
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It's probably about the same as the Wild starting the way they did last year. There could be enough time for regression to play out. There may not be. It's not an excuse, it's math. Few people are predicting when it will happen, just that it will. Same thing's going to happen to Chicago.
That's where you're wrong. It's not math. It's hockey.

You can model the game as well as you want, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a game. In every regression model, there is a a random error component. This random error is where the assumptions come into play. Even the math gurus who attempt to model the NHL using statistics admit that the random error is pretty significant.

Also, you didn't answer my question. The Wild at this point had SIGNIFICANTLY less points than the Ducks do.

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03-19-2013, 09:58 PM
  #42
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Fenwick is likely never going to rate the Ducks properly. They don't put the puck on the net nearly as much as some other teams because players like Getzlaf only shoot if its a perfect opportunity. Mean while they have always let a bunch of shots on goal but they are mostly outside shots and not real dangerous.

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03-19-2013, 10:01 PM
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Minnesota would have been in the playoffs after 48 games last year.

Code:
1.Detroit	 65	32-15-1
2.Vancouver	62	29-15-4
3.San Jose	 62	28-14-6
4.St. Louis	 64	29-13-6
5.Chicago	 64	29-13-6
6.Nashville	 60	28-16-4
7.Los Angeles	56	23-15-10
8.Minnesota	53	23-18-7
9.Colorado	 52	25-21-2
10.Dallas	 52	25-21-2
11.Calgary	 50	22-20-6
12.Phoenix	 50	21-19-8
13.Anaheim	 43	18-23-7
14.Edmonton	40	18-26-4
15.Columbus	32	13-29-6
There's a couple ways to do Fenwick (and Corsi). You can either do an unadjusted total or you can do adjustments for game situation (notably do it for close scores). For close scores: LA was 4th last year, NJ was 10th. Boston was 3rd, Vancouver was 5th. Chicago was 1st, Philly was 14th.

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03-19-2013, 10:06 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by MMonarchs View Post
That's where you're wrong. It's not math. It's hockey.

You can model the game as well as you want, but that doesn't change the fact that it's a game. In every regression model, there is a a random error component. This random error is where the assumptions come into play. Even the math gurus who attempt to model the NHL using statistics admit that the random error is pretty significant.

Also, you didn't answer my question. The Wild at this point had SIGNIFICANTLY less points than the Ducks do.
In math, they find enough sample sizes to account for random errors, the factor is how great random error is in this case. It's a predictor of what is likely.

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Originally Posted by Force951 View Post
Fenwick is likely never going to rate the Ducks properly. They don't put the puck on the net nearly as much as some other teams because players like Getzlaf only shoot if its a perfect opportunity. Mean while they have always let a bunch of shots on goal but they are mostly outside shots and not real dangerous.
People will tell you that Fenwick-Close is an excellent indicator of future success. If they're not shooting, then they're not likely to score. They also don't even have to be taking the shot, just be on the ice for it and not have it blocked. Although more people are starting to get in further by determining how often shots are taken from scoring chance areas.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:07 PM
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Look at my numbers! Look how they give me the power to know all!

Bruce Boudreau and his 48-26-12 record as the coach of the Ducks is all just dumb ****ing luck! Boudreau CLEARLY doesn't know how to coach. The Ducks are CLEARLY playing a more individualistic style of hockey than in the days of Carlyle. They're CLEARLY giving up when the going gets tough and allowing second efforts to fall by the way side.

What a joke some of you are. Here's my advanced statistics. They're clearly brilliant.

This thread has been terrific by the way.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:15 PM
  #46
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I also don't think Anaheim is as good as their current record/streak indicates. They'll fizzle out, and at the wrong time too.
unsustainable?

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03-19-2013, 10:18 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Schalkenullvier View Post
No, because I don't know what Fenwick actually is.What I was reacting to is the arrogant remarks that are always sent out by fans of mediocre teams that are succesful for half a season. Last year it was the Wild which got really lucky with shooting percentages and stuff through the first half, and the regression (not the injuries) were the reason they fell off in the 2nd half. But while team is on a hot streak, their fans will just try to ridicule everyone and eevrything that disagrees.
I gave up reading after the bold part. How can you make the previous statement and then follow it up with this?

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03-19-2013, 10:22 PM
  #48
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I gave up reading after the bold part. How can you make the previous statement and then follow it up with this?
because I didnt comment on the quality on this ducks team, but on how Fans of teams that are accused of riding luck always act.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:25 PM
  #49
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Boudreau can defintely trun around a team and quickly. He did that in Wash and Anaheim.

It's too small of a sample size to see if he is the next Terry Murray or a guy that can win cups.

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03-19-2013, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
Look at my numbers! Look how they give me the power to know all!

Bruce Boudreau and his 48-26-12 record as the coach of the Ducks is all just dumb ****ing luck! Boudreau CLEARLY doesn't know how to coach. The Ducks are CLEARLY playing a more individualistic style of hockey than in the days of Carlyle. They're I CLEARLY giving up when the going gets tough and allowing second efforts to fall by the way side.

What a joke some of you are. Here's my advanced statistics. They're clearly brilliant.

This thread has been terrific by the way.
Advanced stats are a joke when it comes to determining wins and losses. SI.com used them for their MLB power rankings last season. They were so off the mark they scrapped it midway through the year.

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