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The success of Anaheim shows that Boudreau is an excellent coach.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:27 PM
  #51
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He's always been a great coach. The Capitals hit a rough patch and George McPhee blew up an elite team.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:28 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Schalkenullvier View Post
because I didnt comment on the quality on this ducks team, but on how Fans of teams that are accused of riding luck always act.
Stop deflecting from the fact that you say it can predict what teams can do what and then in the next post say you don't have a clue what it is.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:29 PM
  #53
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It's probably about the same as the Wild starting the way they did last year. There could be enough time for regression to play out. There may not be. It's not an excuse, it's math. Few people are predicting when it will happen, just that it will. Same thing's going to happen to Chicago.
So it'll happen to the Pens and Bruins as well right?

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:29 PM
  #54
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I've got one word for this thread



























UNSUSTAINABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



This one word continues to be the theme of the Ducks on Hf Boards..., yet we continue to win...odd. Maybe you guys should just accept that we're a good hockey team

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:34 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by AngelDuck View Post
I've got one word for this thread


























UNSUSTAINABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



This one word continues to be the theme of the Ducks on Hf Boards..., yet we continue to win...odd. Maybe you guys should just accept that we're a good hockey team
It's only a matter of time until TMZ uncovers some kind of evidence that Monsanto is behind this run by the Ducks.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:36 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by LetsGoBears View Post
Stop deflecting from the fact that you say it can predict what teams can do what and then in the next post say you don't have a clue what it is.
geez I said that because those fans I referred to are often awfully quick to disregard any statistic that goes beyond points. I'm sorry to have offended you though, judging by your aggressive posting I can Tell I have really insulted your worldview. Keep fighting for whatever your thing is.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:38 PM
  #57
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24/7 choosing a narrative for Boudreau and Bylsma has done more to determine how the general public views them than anything they have done as coaches.

While 24/7 is entertaining, I can't imagine why anyone would ever want cameras in the locker room. It seems every team that's been on that show ended up worse the year after.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:40 PM
  #58
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I am glad that he is doing well. He took a lot of heat for what went on in the Caps' dressing room, but a lot of it was beyond his control. If you have guys coming to blows with each other over their teammates' work ethic, you know that there is an issue beyond just the coach. There was and is a divide in that room that only moving the right people will solve, in my opinion.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:43 PM
  #59
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Ryan Getzlafs hair is also unsustainable, we have a theme here

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:44 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Force951 View Post
Fenwick is likely never going to rate the Ducks properly. They don't put the puck on the net nearly as much as some other teams because players like Getzlaf only shoot if its a perfect opportunity. Mean while they have always let a bunch of shots on goal but they are mostly outside shots and not real dangerous.
They don't get higher quality shots in terms of distance towards the net than the NHL average. How can you say that Getzlaf only shoots if it's the perfect opportunity when he shot 5.9% last year? They also have a terrible defense and they allow a bunch of shots on goal because other teams are better than them at controlling the puck. They are very similar to what they were last year, which makes sense since they didn't have much turnover. Let's look at how it breaks down in terms of shooting percentages per player:

Getzlaf 17.2; 11.9
Cogliano 22.7; 12.5
Perry 14.8; 12.8
Koivu 24.2; 12.7
Ryan 15.7; 14.5
Palmieri 14.3; 12.9
Selanne 9.7; 15.2
Winnik 12.2; 6.4
Souray 10; 6.1
Bonino 18.5; 8.7
Beleskey 13.9; 7.9

First number is their shooting percentage this year, 2nd number is their career shooting percentage. Is Teemu Selanne just a big ol' idiot this year? Do you really think that guys shooting 10% and 12% better than their career average, one of which is a player who has been around 95-96 and has never shot within 8.8% of his current percentage, is not due for some regression? Do you really think that Bonino is some Steven Stamkos level shooter? Do you think the Maple Leafs are similar a super high shooting percentage team (they're currently third) because they're a bunch of offensive geniuses as well? Do you think this is an accurate summation of the best shooters in the league: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...wName=shooting

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Originally Posted by Vipers31 View Post
You have no idea what you're talking about, other than a few numbers that you're apparently not capable of putting in perspective. There was nothing fluky about Fasth's goaltending, nor was it remotely Vezina caliber. He was playing very solid, but hardly unbelievable. The Ducks play very well defensively and don't allow a lot of high-caliber scoring chances. Fasth (like Hiller now) is getting a ton of help, and both of these guys are making the saves they are supposed to make without being mistakeable for Vezina winners when you watch the game. It doesn't matter if you allow your opponent to take 40 shots a game from the outside. It matters a lot more that you don't allow eight of those in the slot. People are trying to force the complex game of hockey into a more statistically accessible frame while ignoring basic realities. The result, at times, is the numbers derived from that disagreeing with reality. Smart people can then take those numbers, see what happens on the ice, and take their lessons of that odd lack of a correlation. Others will believe that reality is wrong, in some way.
Fasth's goaltending numbers have him as roughly as good as Lundqvist (with a .931 even strength save percentage and .896 save percentage), so yeah, I'd say Vezina calibre applies. He's due for some major regression. The rest of your post was the same "my team actually only takes super cool shots and allows only weak ass shots" non-sense that the other guy posted. But hey, because I disagree you, I'm sure that means I don't watch the games or do anything to interpret the stats.

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Originally Posted by GenericHawksName View Post
So it'll happen to the Pens and Bruins as well right?
Pittsburgh and Boston are two of the best teams in the league, 3rd and 10th in Fenwick and both have had relatively high shooting percentages in recent years, with Pittsburgh having the highest because they have ****ing Crosby and Malkin (and they've still never been as high as Anaheim this year). But Chris Kunitz won't shoot anywhere near 28% for a full season no matter how good Crosby is and Marchand won't be shooting like 1991 Brett Hull either, so they will experience some regression of their own, sure.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:57 PM
  #61
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I thought Boudreau was good in Washington, but the GM was terrible.

They needed better D, and what do they do? Trade for Joe Corvo... WTF does a team with 4 guys combining for around 400 points need Joe Freaking Corvo for?!

His system is offensive, and if he has half decent D, I can see him finally having playoff success.

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Old
03-19-2013, 10:58 PM
  #62
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I gave up reading after the bold part. How can you make the previous statement and then follow it up with this?
Bitterness makes people do and say strange and wondrous things.



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Old
03-19-2013, 11:06 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post

Fasth's goaltending numbers have him as roughly as good as Lundqvist (with a .931 even strength save percentage and .896 save percentage), so yeah, I'd say Vezina calibre applies. He's due for some major regression. The rest of your post was the same "my team actually only takes super cool shots and allows only weak ass shots" non-sense that the other guy posted. But hey, because I disagree you, I'm sure that means I don't watch the games or do anything to interpret the stats.
Based on what exactly? Where's the historical NHL precedent that says this is not the norm for Fasth? Is he not currently establishing himself? No I don't think he'll be the next Lundqvist, but to say it's insane that he CAN'T be close is absurd. Pretty sure the last SEL goaltender to win SEL goalie of the year twice in a row was Lundqvist.

If advanced statistics were right about anything, Anaheim would never have even gotten off to this kind of start.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:09 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
They don't get higher quality shots in terms of distance towards the net than the NHL average. How can you say that Getzlaf only shoots if it's the perfect opportunity when he shot 5.9% last year? They also have a terrible defense and they allow a bunch of shots on goal because other teams are better than them at controlling the puck. They are very similar to what they were last year, which makes sense since they didn't have much turnover. Let's look at how it breaks down in terms of shooting percentages per player:

Getzlaf 17.2; 11.9
Cogliano 22.7; 12.5
Perry 14.8; 12.8
Koivu 24.2; 12.7
Ryan 15.7; 14.5
Palmieri 14.3; 12.9
Selanne 9.7; 15.2
Winnik 12.2; 6.4
Souray 10; 6.1
Bonino 18.5; 8.7
Beleskey 13.9; 7.9

First number is their shooting percentage this year, 2nd number is their career shooting percentage. Is Teemu Selanne just a big ol' idiot this year? Do you really think that guys shooting 10% and 12% better than their career average, one of which is a player who has been around 95-96 and has never shot within 8.8% of his current percentage, is not due for some regression? Do you really think that Bonino is some Steven Stamkos level shooter? Do you think the Maple Leafs are similar a super high shooting percentage team (they're currently third) because they're a bunch of offensive geniuses as well? Do you think this is an accurate summation of the best shooters in the league: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...wName=shooting


Fasth's goaltending numbers have him as roughly as good as Lundqvist (with a .931 even strength save percentage and .896 save percentage), so yeah, I'd say Vezina calibre applies. He's due for some major regression. The rest of your post was the same "my team actually only takes super cool shots and allows only weak ass shots" non-sense that the other guy posted. But hey, because I disagree you, I'm sure that means I don't watch the games or do anything to interpret the stats.


Pittsburgh and Boston are two of the best teams in the league, 3rd and 10th in Fenwick and both have had relatively high shooting percentages in recent years, with Pittsburgh having the highest because they have ****ing Crosby and Malkin (and they've still never been as high as Anaheim this year). But Chris Kunitz won't shoot anywhere near 28% for a full season no matter how good Crosby is and Marchand won't be shooting like 1991 Brett Hull either, so they will experience some regression of their own, sure.
So much is wrong with this post.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:10 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league. They are this year's Minnesota but with only 20 games to collapse instead of 50. They will regress heavily. Boudreau is also a bad coach but mostly for other reasons.
What is this... I don't even...

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:18 PM
  #66
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I don't know what fenwick is but could the reverse happen and their fenwick starts to increase as they play better so that by the end of their season they are a top 5 fenwick team?

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:21 PM
  #67
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Heh. Fenwick Close is a pretty good indicator of performance over time. Last season the Kings were among the best in Fenwick heading into and during the playoffs. It's not terribly advanced (or math manipulation) to say that when the score is close either way, whichever team that directs the most pucks towards the other's net is more likely to score and win.

A low Fenwick and a high shooting percentage can indicate that a team is benefitting from a lot of "puck luck", and regression to the mean (an actual math thing) is expected, if not inevitable.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:26 PM
  #68
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Unsustainable!!!!!!!!
(LOL @ people who name stats after themselves)
Whos' winning the fenwick cup?
Do you also LOL every time you use a Phillips screwdriver, eat a Sandwich, sit in a Jacuzzi, or watch the Zamboni flood the ice? That must be socially awkward. Sometimes it's easier to just name something after its inventor, especially when it's too complicated to have a reasonable descriptive name. That's how language evolves.

Edit: But to stay on topic, I never thought Boudreau's teams in Washington were very good at playing tight defensive hockey, even in the regular season and even though they had decent defensive numbers in the regular season. And that was exposed in the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if Anaheim has the same problems. Good motivational guy though, and an easy coach to play with if you're a star player. I expect him to have a limited shelf life in Anaheim because just like in Washington the role players will start to feel alienated by the preferential treatment the stars get.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:29 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by NOTENOUGHBREWER View Post
I don't know what fenwick is but could the reverse happen and their fenwick starts to increase as they play better so that by the end of their season they are a top 5 fenwick team?
No. Ducks success is unsustainable.

Math>hockey.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:30 PM
  #70
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Advanced stats are a joke when it comes to determining wins and losses. SI.com used them for their MLB power rankings last season. They were so off the mark they scrapped it midway through the year.
Personally, i think that advanced statistics are mostly garbage, but "Sabremetrics" has been used to some success in baseball... which I think is an entirely different animal than the NHL. Baseball isn't a team sport. It's a pitcher, a catcher, a guy with a bat and a number of dudes waiting to catch a ball if said bat-man hits the pitchers' throw while the bat-mans' team mates wait at bases to run or not run depending on his success.

Baseball blows. But I think, in the very controlled atmosphere of that "sport" (actually a game), advanced statistics have a certain relevancy. I don't think that advanced statistics hold the same relevance in a flow game like hockey or basketball as they do in a sit-and-wait game like baseball.

I don't know too much about the game of Cricket besides what my Indian friends have told me, but from what little I've seen, I imagine advanced statistics could weigh heavily into predicting the outcome of matches in that game.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:30 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Ishdul View Post
Anaheim has gotten absurd luck, with the highest shooting percentage post lockout and getting very fluky good goaltending from Fasth (unless you actually think he's a Vezina calibre goaltender), which covers up for the fact that they're a terrible possession team with the 6th worst Fenwick and 3rd worst Corsi in the league. They are this year's Minnesota but with only 20 games to collapse instead of 50. They will regress heavily. Boudreau is also a bad coach but mostly for other reasons.
Oh good. It's this argument again.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:32 PM
  #72
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Based on what exactly? Where's the historical NHL precedent that says this is not the norm for Fasth? Is he not currently establishing himself? No I don't think he'll be the next Lundqvist, but to say it's insane that he CAN'T be close is absurd. Pretty sure the last SEL goaltender to win SEL goalie of the year twice in a row was Lundqvist.
You don't go from the SEL to the NHL and dramatically outproduce your numbers to the level. Lundqvist was far better in the SEL than Fasth has been and kept on improving in the NHL (which is important because he did his numbers in Sweden at a younger age than Fasth). Fasth could be a good goalie in the NHL but even going from .930 even strength save percentage to .920 is a huge deal that would have a dramatic effect on the Ducks.

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If advanced statistics were right about anything, Anaheim would never have even gotten off to this kind of start.
That's not true at all. There are a lot of advanced stats to show how chaotic the league is, especially in small sample sizes. There's going to be teams that dramatically outperform their peripheral numbers in insufficient sample sizes, as is the case every year. And it's completely ridiculous to pretend that advanced stats aren't right about ANYTHING, even if you hate them and Jim Corsi killed your father.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:36 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by SadStumpy View Post
Personally, i think that advanced statistics are mostly garbage, but "Sabremetrics" has been used to some success in baseball... which I think is an entirely different animal. Baseball isn't a team sport. It's a pitcher, a catcher, a guy with a bat and a number of dudes waiting to catch a ball if said bat-man hits the pitchers' throw while the bat-mans' team mates wait at bases to run or not run depending on his success.

Baseball blows.
You make a good point. Hockey is definitely a different beast. Sabremetrics are fine when judging individual talent. But when people start to use them to predict success for a team as a whole, I just can't get on board with that. But I'm still old school in that I still believe in clutch and character and team unity being factors.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:37 PM
  #74
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Ryan Getzlafs hair is also unsustainable, we have a theme here
This post deserves sone love.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:39 PM
  #75
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These statistics are a good baseline for the average team, used loosely, not for every team. People don't seem to understand what regression to the mean actually means, and they consistently use it incorrectly.

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