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Around the League part deux

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Old
03-19-2013, 01:23 AM
  #526
winterpeg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
he didn't just use Fenwick (nor do I)...
He also used shots for/against and PDO.

SF/SA in the last 5 years has had a strong enough correlation over the last 5 years to long term success to have a P value in the 15th decimal place... That means:
99.9999999999985% confidence that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between shot differential and standings points

Also the PDO points out to two things:
Fasth has the same SV% as he had in SEL, a weaker league
Anaheim is scoring on higher percentage of shots on any team in the league

Yes Fasth is a good goalie and yes they have some good goalscorers on the team. But not that good... not legendary good.
I gotta ask, but how many players/teams ever truly defy those rules of reasonable shot% etc?

I'm certain there are a few guys (Stamkos?) who are never dragged back down from "overachieving"

I find the advanced stats stuff really fascinating, though I know little about it, but I can only assume there are some players who just bury pucks at a rate that doesn't really seem right. Or teams, frankly. I'm sure Geno and Sid could keep Pitt's goals up at a reasonable average even if the rest of the team took less shots.

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03-19-2013, 01:37 AM
  #527
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winterpeg View Post
I gotta ask, but how many players/teams ever truly defy those rules of reasonable shot% etc?

I'm certain there are a few guys (Stamkos?) who are never dragged back down from "overachieving"

I find the advanced stats stuff really fascinating, though I know little about it, but I can only assume there are some players who just bury pucks at a rate that doesn't really seem right. Or teams, frankly. I'm sure Geno and Sid could keep Pitt's goals up at a reasonable average even if the rest of the team took less shots.
Players:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/lead...ct_career.html

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Old
03-19-2013, 04:34 AM
  #528
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by winterpeg View Post
I gotta ask, but how many players/teams ever truly defy those rules of reasonable shot% etc?

I'm certain there are a few guys (Stamkos?) who are never dragged back down from "overachieving"

I find the advanced stats stuff really fascinating, though I know little about it, but I can only assume there are some players who just bury pucks at a rate that doesn't really seem right. Or teams, frankly. I'm sure Geno and Sid could keep Pitt's goals up at a reasonable average even if the rest of the team took less shots.
Opportunistic shooters tend to have high shooting percentages, but they don't count for much of the teams shots on goal (therefore they don't have large affects on team sh%) and their own Sh% tends to vary a lot season to season. They also tend to be labeled as "streaky" because they don't put a lot of pucks on the net and are more vulnerable to quality of shot and goalie, and natural variance of life...
Examples on our own team would be Little, Antropov and Wellwood.

Superb generational talent can "defy odds" like your three examples. All three of them aren't of the "opportunistic" crowd and actually shoot a lot; they all tend to be in the top shots/gp in the league. Also, they do not just have high personal shooting percentages, but the teams themselves tends to have very high shooting percentages when they are on the ice. It makes sense when you think about it. They are really good and therefore they can get the puck into high threat areas more often than another player on average.

But, having a whole team shooting like that on average is completely different story...
For example the Ducks as a team are shooting above 11%... but when you look at last seasons stats for players with more than 40+ games, only 14 forwards were able to have the team shoot at >11% when they were on the ice... And it's no surprise that Stamkos and his shuffling linemates (all 4 of them) consist of 5 of the 14.
So, when I see the Ducks (including their 3rd and 4th lines) shooting as a team better than what 98% of the NHL was able to do for their team, including Malkin.... I suspect some over-performance.

Here's the NHL forwards with 40+ gp in order of On-Ice Sh%:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...34+45+46+63+67

EDIT:
PDO is based off of On-Ice SH% + On-Ice SV% which is different than a players personal SH%.

2nd EDIT:
last season Olli Jokinen was 33rd in the league for On-Ice SH%... this season he is 340th... poor guy has no luck. Even his linemates who were scoring (like when he was with Kane and Wheeler) would happen to score when he wasn't on the ice lol.


Last edited by garret9: 03-19-2013 at 04:48 AM.
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Old
03-19-2013, 09:11 AM
  #529
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Cool. Thanks guys.

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Old
03-19-2013, 04:54 PM
  #530
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03-19-2013, 06:08 PM
  #531
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It's pretty amazing that a player can be fourth in the league in points, is a 4-time 1st or 2nd team all-star and a former Hart Trophy winner and yet it seems like hardly anyone ever talks about him. Hardly ever see anyone mention him on the main boards either.

Is Martin St. Louis the most underappreciated player in the NHL?

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03-19-2013, 06:17 PM
  #532
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Really hope Pittsburgh wins the next four in a row; so we can dismantle their streak, we can do it again!

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Old
03-19-2013, 08:35 PM
  #533
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Well, Florida wins unless they give up 2 goals in a minute. Thanks Panthers!

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03-19-2013, 08:51 PM
  #534
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How about those Blue Jackets being in the conversation with another win.

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03-19-2013, 10:13 PM
  #535
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How about those Blue Jackets being in the conversation with another win.
What a season!

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03-19-2013, 11:06 PM
  #536
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You know what I'm loving? The fact that the Yotes have now been shutout for three games in a row. Pure awesomeness

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:54 PM
  #537
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How about those Blue Jackets being in the conversation with another win.
Wouldn't it be something if the Blue Jackets make the playoffs, and the Rangers don't. CBJ would still have a shot at winning the draft lottery.

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Old
03-19-2013, 11:57 PM
  #538
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Nice powerplay goal by the Kings, some solid passing.

Kings colour or pbp guy - "Shane Doan like it" So bad it was funny.

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Old
03-20-2013, 12:00 AM
  #539
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammer Slammer View Post
Nice powerplay goal by the Kings, some solid passing.

Kings colour or pbp guy - "Shane Doan like it" So bad it was funny.
Doan and Kings have LOTS of history...

It's rare that Kings announcers are homers like that, never heard that before actually, that's how much the Kings hate Doan, even their broadcast crew hates him...

Penner just manhandled Hanzal haha...just disappointed Yotes scored, was hoping for straight shutouts...

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Old
03-20-2013, 12:12 AM
  #540
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Crazy finish. Penner is a beast. When he gets to full speed it's like a damn semi coming at you.

RIP purple crown jersey.

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Old
03-20-2013, 11:41 AM
  #541
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Mike Komisarek on waivers. I wonder if a team will claim him.

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Old
03-20-2013, 12:05 PM
  #542
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Mike Komisarek on waivers. I wonder if a team will claim him.
I find it hilarious that leafs fans constantly wanted to get rid of him, but always insisted he had high trade value.

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Old
03-20-2013, 02:26 PM
  #543
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Old
03-20-2013, 04:48 PM
  #544
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Who's ready to watch the Leaves burn tonight?

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Old
03-20-2013, 04:54 PM
  #545
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Glen Sather is going to have surgery for prostate cancer tomorrow I believe.
Katie Strang tweeted something to that effect.

All the best to him in his recovery.

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Old
03-20-2013, 05:03 PM
  #546
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Glen Sather is going to have surgery for prostate cancer tomorrow I believe.
Katie Strang tweeted something to that effect.

All the best to him in his recovery.
He thought it was prostate cancer. Turns out it was just Gaborik's contract causing the discomfort.

In all seriousness, speedy recovery.

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Old
03-20-2013, 05:38 PM
  #547
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Oh please please please lose Toronto!


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Who's ready to watch the Leaves burn tonight?

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Old
03-20-2013, 05:49 PM
  #548
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I'm just ready to watch a good hockey game. It's rare that I can get up early enough on a Wednesday to watch one before work. Usually I sleep until 9:30pm when I'm coming off of my weekend.

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Old
03-20-2013, 06:28 PM
  #549
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TB doesn't look too good. We can't count on them to beat the Leafs, I guess.

Hopefully the Bruins beat the Leafs twice in a row, we beat TB on Sunday, and we beat the Caps (at minimum) once (.....but lets go for a sweep at home!)

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Old
03-20-2013, 06:37 PM
  #550
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Gardiner is a total *****. He was going for the puck against the wall and a guy was going to hit him and he totally pulled the plug.

Gardiner is playing like a poor mans Byfuglien right now, good. Hope he causes many goals against.

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