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Are playoffs still makeable?

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Old
03-20-2013, 02:41 PM
  #426
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Originally Posted by Koto View Post
**** thats it? are we ever going to make it to 40%
If you assume that any given team has a 50/50 chance of winning any given game the odds jump up to around 40% if everything goes right tonight.

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03-20-2013, 03:06 PM
  #427
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If we keep winning there's a chance. I think the goal that the team should set out to do is win the North West. For that to happen, they need to keep winning and hope that Vancouver collapse and for Minnesota to remain inconsistent. I don't really think it's possible to win the division, but if they aim for that and come close, 7th or 8th is possible.

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03-20-2013, 03:19 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by xsoil View Post
The Oil have to go 12-6-2 in their last 20 games for a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs. If it drops to 11-8-1 their chances drop to 28%. So ya,,,,,, all the remaining games are extremely important.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Edmonton.html
The Oilers are 8-2-1 with The Captain in the lineup...just some food for consumption.

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03-20-2013, 03:46 PM
  #429
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It's hard not to see the Blue Jackets as a playoff team... they are working their ***** off every game and basically playing playoff hockey now just to crawl up the standings.

Honestly, unless they burn out, I don't see them missing. That's got to be a pretty hungry team as well with something to prove after so many years of crap.

That leaves teams like the Canucks, Red Wings and Sharks as the "catchables" for a 7th/8th spot.

All 3 of those teams seem to be clubs ready for a playoff miss since they have had great regular season success for so many years. Is there the same level of "hunger" there as some of the other wannabes? I think at least one of those 3 will miss the big show and leave the door open for a team like the Oilers/Stars to creep up into a playoff spot.

I thought the Avs would be doing better after getting healthy bodies back and I figured they'd be making a run for 8th... but it looks like they are trying to lock up that basement spot with the way they are playing. Maybe sit out O'Reilly again.


It's really a crapshoot these last 20 games no matter what the math and odds say. It obviously all comes down to the teams that want it bad enough.

Any team from 3rd to 15th can still make it or miss depending on cold/hot steaks but I'd give the edge to the Wild, LA and the Blues for 3,4,5 and then it's pretty much wide open for 6,7,8 imo.

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03-20-2013, 04:22 PM
  #430
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(How weird, we need 3 NW teams to win for us to have a better playoff chance)

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03-20-2013, 05:53 PM
  #431
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
I was thinking exactly this. But I'm not understanding this. Why is tonight a gigantic game, by this reference point weren't the whole weeks games gigantic games?

Its going to take a little effort from this team to get me excited about any alleged playoff push.
It is nice that the games mean something.
Well, 2 things I think. 1 part of it would be confidence. As much as the match doesn't change all that much for the rest of the year (we are going to need ~26 pts from these last 20 games), a loss and you're possibly 5-6 points out at the end of the night. Win (and a DAL loss) and you now hold the 8th spot. Having played sports competitively (admittedly never near a pro level), actually holding 8th after the game tonight could "flick a switch" in some people. Being 5-6 out might feel insurmountable. Being in 8th means you are now in a playoff position (temporary as it may be). I really believe that it would have a positive impact on the team.

And the other thing, if we are still in it next week (which a win tonight would help with tremendously), then we are unlikely to be sellers at the deadline. I think if management starts selling, it will send a clear signal to everyone on the team, and we'll likely be subjected to more crap like that 3rd period against the Wings as opposed to the first 2.

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Old
03-20-2013, 08:41 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by oilchamp99 View Post
LA sweeps PHX at home, ANA beats SJ, then we beat SJ, everything in regulation. Boom!!tied for 8th as of Wednesday night. Easy peasy......but highly unlikely.
Like a boss, fck did I jinx it?

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03-20-2013, 08:44 PM
  #433
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Like a boss, fck did I jinx it?
Need Avs to beat Stars tonight.

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03-21-2013, 01:22 AM
  #434
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Well everything worked out perfectly... except for the part where the Oilers needed to win... which is kinda important.

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03-21-2013, 01:26 AM
  #435
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Well everything worked out perfectly... except for the part where the Oilers needed to win... which is kinda important.
Still got a point though. It's not like we dropped 10 points back because of a SO loss.

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03-21-2013, 01:34 AM
  #436
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I agree with what Bob McKenzie said tonight. The Oilers keep going in stretches of 5 bad games followed by 5 or so games where they get points. That's (Bettman's bastardized) .500 hockey and that means no playoffs.

And seriously, we're only in the race because of the shortened season. If we were talking a full 82 games they're tracking no differently than 2010, 2011 or 2012. They're still a bottom five team on Tambi's watch.

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03-21-2013, 01:36 AM
  #437
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Maybe if Khabi gets hot and we ride him.
Dubnyk has NEVER played consistent, winning hockey in his life (unless it was in 'Pee-Wee' hockey). No reason for him to start now.

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03-21-2013, 02:13 AM
  #438
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I've looked at the Oilers schedule of games remaining before... but every time I look at it... it looks tougher.

The only "gimme" games in there are the 2 games vs the Avs and Preds... and those are road games so not really easy games after all.

That has to be one of the toughest finishing schedules imaginable... even though it's slanted to more homes games than away... but no real advantage there for the Oilers anyway.

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03-21-2013, 02:16 AM
  #439
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Have to......?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KarmaPolice View Post
Maybe if Khabi gets hot and we ride him.
Dubnyk has NEVER played consistent, winning hockey in his life (unless it was in 'Pee-Wee' hockey). No reason for him to start now.
Have to agree............trade for Bishop in Ottawa........for a 2nd round pick (we have two second rounders don't we?)

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Old
03-21-2013, 03:10 AM
  #440
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Originally Posted by oilers_smyth_94 View Post
If we keep winning there's a chance. I think the goal that the team should set out to do is win the North West. For that to happen, they need to keep winning and hope that Vancouver collapse and for Minnesota to remain inconsistent. I don't really think it's possible to win the division, but if they aim for that and come close, 7th or 8th is possible.
lol. you don't say.

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03-21-2013, 03:29 AM
  #441
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Originally Posted by KarmaPolice View Post
Maybe if Khabi gets hot and we ride him.
Dubnyk has NEVER played consistent, winning hockey in his life (unless it was in 'Pee-Wee' hockey). No reason for him to start now.
Absolutely. Theres simply no way the club goes on a run with Dubnyk blowing a goal or more every game. Right now he's really starting to remind me of Conklin. So bad that the club has to outchance the opposition badly to have a chance. What a joke tonight that SJ was even in the game. Dubnyk kept keeping them in it.

Worst thing about this is you know that Tambofool just has to see Dubnyk start every night because he's the GM's latest pet project #1, after Khabi.

Dubs could be indescribably bad (oh wait he is) and he'd still be considered the go to guy.

Managerial pride is standing in the way of correct decisions. Khabi is the better goalie, but Dubs is in net because of the recent contract. Management can't be wrong again, can they..?

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03-21-2013, 05:13 AM
  #442
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We have to be the only team that has yet to string more than 2W in a row this season.

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03-21-2013, 05:18 AM
  #443
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until we get better goaltending we are going nowhere

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03-21-2013, 06:03 AM
  #444
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Absolutely. Theres simply no way the club goes on a run with Dubnyk blowing a goal or more every game. Right now he's really starting to remind me of Conklin. So bad that the club has to outchance the opposition badly to have a chance. What a joke tonight that SJ was even in the game. Dubnyk kept keeping them in it.

Worst thing about this is you know that Tambofool just has to see Dubnyk start every night because he's the GM's latest pet project #1, after Khabi.

Dubs could be indescribably bad (oh wait he is) and he'd still be considered the go to guy.

Managerial pride is standing in the way of correct decisions. Khabi is the better goalie, but Dubs is in net because of the recent contract. Management can't be wrong again, can they..?
worse than Tambo's pride is his endless evaluating. i guarentee we will be hearing about how they are 'evaluating' the goaltending next fall and Dubnyk will be the starter.

and i also guarentee he will be trotting up to the podium at the Draft to pick another 18 year old, then he'll tell us how he was very aggressive in trying to trade the pick, but the deal just wasn't there. We will hear much the same at the trade deadline. little or no change, no results and a bunch of excuses.


Last edited by Up the Irons: 03-21-2013 at 06:09 AM.
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Old
03-21-2013, 10:52 AM
  #445
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Today!

We cheer for...

LA! +0.4%
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03-21-2013, 12:30 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by Leman Russ View Post
Today!

We cheer for...

LA! +0.4%
Nashville! +0.1%
Vancouver! (ugh) +0.2%
Curious, not sure exactly how this works, and I did look at the website. I think this is obvious but if the Oilers had won in regulation last night, these %s would be much higher, correct?

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03-21-2013, 12:36 PM
  #447
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Curious, not sure exactly how this works, and I did look at the website. I think this is obvious but if the Oilers had won in regulation last night, these %s would be much higher, correct?
Maybe, maybe not.
I don't know dick all about the algorithms used to calculate it.

That Sharks game was worth like 5% to us yesterday.

If we did win, I don't know how much it would affect teams below us.

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03-21-2013, 12:48 PM
  #448
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I think it's time to ride Khabby.

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Old
03-21-2013, 12:53 PM
  #449
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I think it's time to ride Khabby.
Honestly I think Khabby is being held together by spit and hope (and a little vodka most likely).

It's possible the Oilers don't want to risk playing him much at all in case he tweaks something and is on IR at the deadline. Just a theory... but it makes sense not to play him much and see what he can bring back from a team that needs a decent backup with Stanley Cup playoff experience.

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03-21-2013, 01:23 PM
  #450
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We have to be the only team that has yet to string more than 2W in a row this season.
It's pathetic.

They managed to string two 5 game losing streaks together though!

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