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03-21-2013, 01:56 AM
  #476
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Count me out on Nichushkin. How many russian prospects have we seen over the years that are young and overhyped because of a "rare combination of size and skill" despite not having actually proven anything? The kid is young and who knows what the future brings, sure. But they said the same thing about Viktor Kozlov. It is just a very high risk pick in my opinion.

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03-21-2013, 08:17 AM
  #477
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Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Count me out on Nichushkin. How many russian prospects have we seen over the years that are young and overhyped because of a "rare combination of size and skill" despite not having actually proven anything? The kid is young and who knows what the future brings, sure. But they said the same thing about Viktor Kozlov. It is just a very high risk pick in my opinion.
Everyone wants to think they're drafting Malkin, Ovechkin or Datsyuk.

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03-21-2013, 09:52 AM
  #478
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Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Count me out on Nichushkin. How many russian prospects have we seen over the years that are young and overhyped because of a "rare combination of size and skill" despite not having actually proven anything? The kid is young and who knows what the future brings, sure. But they said the same thing about Viktor Kozlov. It is just a very high risk pick in my opinion.
I'm sorry, but you believe there is correlation simply through nationality? Nichushkin and Kozlov were born in what is regarded to be the same state. That is all.

Proven anything? As opposed to all the other top prospects available who have? We're drafting 17/18 year old players based on projections.

The anti-Russian sentiments displayed by so many North Americans is so bizarre and ignorant. If you've watched Nichushkin and are skeptical based on his play, and whether he has the intelligence to go with the tools, fine ... but his passport has nothing to do with how he plays hockey.

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03-21-2013, 10:06 AM
  #479
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I'm sorry, but you believe there is correlation simply through nationality? Nichushkin and Kozlov were born in what is regarded to be the same state. That is all.

Proven anything? As opposed to all the other top prospects available who have? We're drafting 17/18 year old players based on projections.

The anti-Russian sentiments displayed by so many North Americans is so bizarre and ignorant. If you've watched Nichushkin and are skeptical based on his play, and whether he has the intelligence to go with the tools, fine ... but his passport has nothing to do with how he plays hockey.
The Russian factor: A player could get drafted and say the hell with the NHL, I'll turn pro and stay close to home.

That's what I'm skeptical about.

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03-21-2013, 10:18 AM
  #480
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I'm sorry, but you believe there is correlation simply through nationality? Nichushkin and Kozlov were born in what is regarded to be the same state. That is all.

Proven anything? As opposed to all the other top prospects available who have? We're drafting 17/18 year old players based on projections.

The anti-Russian sentiments displayed by so many North Americans is so bizarre and ignorant. If you've watched Nichushkin and are skeptical based on his play, and whether he has the intelligence to go with the tools, fine ... but his passport has nothing to do with how he plays hockey.
Here's the only thing I would have a problem with in terms of Nichushkin: he's signed to a KHL contract for another 2 yrs after this one. If a team is picking with the top 3 picks, they usually want to get a player that will be able to impact their lineup more quickly than that. In the last 5 drafts, EVERY top 3 pick was in the NHL within 1 season of their draft yr and almost all were immediately after being drafted. So while Nichushkin is probably a top 3 prospect in terms of talent, the lack of being able to impact a team's success more quickly will easily cause him to drop. I know you disagree with that idea but thats just the facts of what NHL teams are doing at the top of the draft. They want immediate impact and that's not Nichushkin.

The one thing I'm curious about with regard to Nichushkin is how good is he in terms of defensive play. Most Russians from what we have seen are definitely top end in terms of offensive play but generally they aren't the most proficient defensively (except for a guy like Datsyuk) or maybe just dont have the desire to play defense. I definitely havent seen enough to say what his capabilities are there but that would be a question that would need to be answered if he's supposed to the top forward in the draft.

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03-21-2013, 10:21 AM
  #481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
The Russian factor: A player could get drafted and say the hell with the NHL, I'll turn pro and stay close to home.

That's what I'm skeptical about.
Name me a high end Russian prospect who has never ventured over to the NA.

Good luck.

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03-21-2013, 10:23 AM
  #482
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I'm sorry, but you believe there is correlation simply through nationality? Nichushkin and Kozlov were born in what is regarded to be the same state. That is all.

Proven anything? As opposed to all the other top prospects available who have? We're drafting 17/18 year old players based on projections.

The anti-Russian sentiments displayed by so many North Americans is so bizarre and ignorant. If you've watched Nichushkin and are skeptical based on his play, and whether he has the intelligence to go with the tools, fine ... but his passport has nothing to do with how he plays hockey.
You can't ignore the risk with drafting a Russian prospect who has not, as far as I know, made it clear he wants to play in North America.

When you draft a North American player, you know he will want to play here, but there is the possibility that a prospect from outside North America may not want to come here. Doubly so with a player from the former Soviet Union since they can play at home and make the same amount of money.

The fact that he has signed on for several years with the KHL may not mean he does not want to come to North America, but it does mean that he hasn't made it a point to come to North America like some other foreign prospects have in the past, hence the concern.

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03-21-2013, 10:26 AM
  #483
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Name me a high end Russian prospect who has never ventured over to the NA.

Good luck.
Evgeny Kuznetsov

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03-21-2013, 10:30 AM
  #484
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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
Here's the only thing I would have a problem with in terms of Nichushkin: he's signed to a KHL contract for another 2 yrs after this one. If a team is picking with the top 3 picks, they usually want to get a player that will be able to impact their lineup more quickly than that. In the last 5 drafts, every top 3 pick was in the NHL within 1 season of their draft yr and almost all were immediately after being drafted. So while Nichushkin is probably a top 3 prospect in terms of talent, the lack of being able to impact a team's success more quickly will easily cause him to drop. I know you disagree with that idea but thats just the facts of what NHL teams are doing at the top of the draft. They want immediate impact and that's not Nichushkin.
We're drafting players for 20 years. The next 2, their teenage years, really isn't that much of a concern. Who cares if whoever we draft has a 40 or 50 point season when they are 19. I care about what they are doing in the 20's and onwards. If you feel Nichushkin is the best player available, take him, unless your interview information tells you otherwise.

Immediate impact? If you're expecting 18/19 year old rookies to define your season/lead you somewhere ... well, your not a well run club.

Lindholm will likely stay another year in the SEL. Monahaon isn't ready to be a big time offensive producer in the nhl. Barkov will have growing pains. Jones won't be an elite impact defenseman at 18. Drouin won't be an NHL impact forward at 18. Mackinnon is the most ready to me, but again, he'll be 18. Big deal. 5 years down the line >>>> now. Hence, waiting 2 years doesn't bother me in the slighest.

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The one thing I'm curious about with regard to Nichushkin is how good is he in terms of defensive play. Most Russians from what we have seen are definitely top end in terms of offensive play but generally they aren't the most proficient defensively (except for a guy like Datsyuk) or maybe just dont have the desire to play defense. I definitely havent seen enough to say what his capabilities are there but that would be a question that would need to be answered if he's supposed to the top forward in the draft.
This is a stereotype again. It's got very little to do with Russians. Most high octane skilled 18 year old Forwards tend to be weaker on the defensive side. Drouin, Mackinnon, Lindholm and Nichushkin have work to do in that area. Next year, the best available forward IMO, Nylander, is pretty bad in his own zone.

Defensive capabilities for Forwards can be coached. All you need is a willing personality. These so called Russians ; well Kovalchuk and Datsyuk are now considered excellent 2 way players, a far cry from when they entered the league. Semin is very competent defensively. It's stupid to generalise a nationality. Datsyuk was well below average defensively at 23, nevermind 18.

I wouldn't take Nichushkin above the other Top 6 guys, but it isn't because of his contract, or his nationality, or his immature defensive play.

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03-21-2013, 10:32 AM
  #485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Rypien Farts View Post
Evgeny Kuznetsov
He's 20. He's the same age as Nick Bjugstad. So no, this example doesn't work.

Anymore?

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03-21-2013, 10:38 AM
  #486
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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
You can't ignore the risk with drafting a Russian prospect who has not, as far as I know, made it clear he wants to play in North America.
Conjecture. Unless you have definitive word of his intentions, it isn't a concern to me.

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When you draft a North American player, you know he will want to play here, but there is the possibility that a prospect from outside North America may not want to come here. Doubly so with a player from the former Soviet Union since they can play at home and make the same amount of money.
Nichushkin wasn't alive when the Soviet Union existed. Are you merely mentioning it to flex your historical knowledge? High end Russian players come to the NHL. Radulov being the only exception. It's such an overblown concept. The bigger issue is flight risk, if they're not an elite talent, and you don't know how to develop a suitable environment ; see Columbus.


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The fact that he has signed on for several years with the KHL may not mean he does not want to come to North America, but it does mean that he hasn't made it a point to come to North America like some other foreign prospects have in the past, hence the concern.
He's 17. NHL careers don't end at 20. It's not a concern, unless you know he wants to stay in Russia past that. Tarasenko fell for the same reasons. Big mistake. Kuznetsov remains in Russia largely because of Sochi.

There should be no issue with Russian players remaining at home during their teenage years to develop. I actually prefer it, long-term.

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03-21-2013, 10:39 AM
  #487
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I agree the Russian factor is overblown. I remember there were even "concerns" about Kulikov despite him playing in juniors over here. There is definitely a North American bias with drafting. It's funny how everyone was hesitant to take a "risk" with Taresenko, and now everyone would love to have him. Skill is skill. Doesn't matter where it comes from. And I can't think of any examples of highly touted prospects where they didn't come over.

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03-21-2013, 10:57 AM
  #488
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Conjecture. Unless you have definitive word of his intentions, it isn't a concern to me.

Nichushkin wasn't alive when the Soviet Union existed. Are you merely mentioning it to flex your historical knowledge? High end Russian players come to the NHL. Radulov being the only exception. It's such an overblown concept. The bigger issue is flight risk, if they're not an elite talent, and you don't know how to develop a suitable environment ; see Columbus.

He's 17. NHL careers don't end at 20. It's not a concern, unless you know he wants to stay in Russia past that. Tarasenko fell for the same reasons. Big mistake. Kuznetsov remains in Russia largely because of Sochi.

There should be no issue with Russian players remaining at home during their teenage years to develop. I actually prefer it, long-term.
I mention the former soviet union countries because they are more likely to play in the KHL than players from other countries.

I'm glad you mentioned Columbus because I was about to point out Filatov. Whether the player is a risk for not wanting to come here, or want to go home in a few years, it's a risk, I don't know why you refuse to acknowledge it.

If you had two prospects, with the same skill set and talent level, but the only difference being one was from North America and the other from Russia. Which do you choose?

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03-21-2013, 11:00 AM
  #489
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Name me a high end Russian prospect who has never ventured over to the NA.

Good luck.
I could but it would be in poor taste since he died in Russia.

I believe back in 2000 there was a kid taken 15th overall that never came over from Russia but cant remember his name now.
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
We're drafting players for 20 years. The next 2, their teenage years, really isn't that much of a concern. Who cares if whoever we draft has a 40 or 50 point season when they are 19. I care about what they are doing in the 20's and onwards. If you feel Nichushkin is the best player available, take him, unless your interview information tells you otherwise.

Immediate impact? If you're expecting 18/19 year old rookies to define your season/lead you somewhere ... well, your not a well run club.

Lindholm will likely stay another year in the SEL. Monahaon isn't ready to be a big time offensive producer in the nhl. Barkov will have growing pains. Jones won't be an elite impact defenseman at 18. Drouin won't be an NHL impact forward at 18. Mackinnon is the most ready to me, but again, he'll be 18. Big deal. 5 years down the line >>>> now. Hence, waiting 2 years doesn't bother me in the slighest.
We get thats how you feel about it but teams dont think like you. They arent just drafting for the next 20 yrs...they are drafting for both the next 20 yrs and often who can make the biggest impact as quickly as possible so they turn their fortunes around. So that goes into who they feel is the best player available at those spots. And thats why you often see Russian players slide because they often are 2-4 yrs away from even making an impact in the NHL.

And there have been a lot of players drafted in the top 3 who were 18/19 yrs old and had immediate impacts in recent yrs. Kane, Toews, Stamkos, Backstrom, & Duchene all had impressive debuts and helped their teams right away. I wouldnt say any of those teams are poorly run and we have the guy running our club that drafted 2 of those guys.

Actually the one reason I would take MacKinnon over any of the other forwards is his 2-way ability right now. He's got the potential to impact the game right away and not as the growing pains you would normally see from a rookie. And keep in mind, its not uncommon that players do take a yr to get accustomed to the NHL before they really break out. So even if a player continues to develop overseas like Nichushkin, he'll still take an additional yr in the NHL before you see the true results of his play. So eating up a yr of a player at 18 where you get solid play but not elite so that when they are 19, that often makes more sense to NHL clubs than waiting until those players are coming in as 21 yrs old and then not getting any big results until 22. By 22, that 18 yr old has probably made more impact on your club than the other player would have.
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
This is a stereotype again. It's got very little to do with Russians. Most high octane skilled 18 year old Forwards tend to be weaker on the defensive side. Drouin, Mackinnon, Lindholm and Nichushkin have work to do in that area. Next year, the best available forward IMO, Nylander, is pretty bad in his own zone.

Defensive capabilities for Forwards can be coached. All you need is a willing personality. These so called Russians ; well Kovalchuk and Datsyuk are now considered excellent 2 way players, a far cry from when they entered the league. Semin is very competent defensively. It's stupid to generalise a nationality. Datsyuk was well below average defensively at 23, nevermind 18.

I wouldn't take Nichushkin above the other Top 6 guys, but it isn't because of his contract, or his nationality, or his immature defensive play.
Stereotypes are there because there has been some common reason for it. If something occurs several times and seems to keep happening, then that isnt uncommon to see a stereotype develop. As I said above, MacKinnon is probably the one player among that group that has less work to do in his own zone. Thats why I would prefer him over the others more than anything.

Yes defensive capabilities can be coached but that means a longer development timeline. As I said above, a top 3 pick has generally been expected to impact the lineup within 1 yr of being drafted and if you have to wait until 23 yrs old for a player to be competent defensively, then you're a continually losing team IMO as compared to a team that has a player that at a young age is able to quickly develop that defensive side. For example, see Tyler Seguin

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03-21-2013, 11:11 AM
  #490
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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
I mention the former soviet union countries because they are more likely to play in the KHL than players from other countries.
It's like me mentioning that i once went to primary school when discussing my qualifications in a job interview. Brilliant? Nichushkin is Russian and plays domestically for now. Why your mentioning the Soviet Union i don't know.

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I'm glad you mentioned Columbus because I was about to point out Filatov. Whether the player is a risk for not wanting to come here, or want to go home in a few years, it's a risk, I don't know why you refuse to acknowledge it.
Filatov came to the AHL at 18. He then re-tried the AHL again. He's had two seperate NHL organisations, played for both at the AHL and NHL level. He failed with both. Filatov is now in the KHL, where he is not exactly one of the better players in the league. Filatov failed as a prospect because he was weak, immature and was handled poorly by Columbus. The AHL at 18 wasn't a good idea. Filatov himself must take much of the blame too. He didn't fail because he was Russian. He isn't an example of the Russian factor since he came over, twice. He isn't refined enough or good enough within his particular skill-set to be an NHL player. Simple as.

There is no other risk to acknowledge. If a Russian player is good enough, and handled well, he isn't a risk. In all honesty, this is the same with most prospects. The Russian factor only really applies to older less talented prospects (or young prospects who rush themselves over to NA via peer pressure from the NHL) who can make more capital at home rather than riding the AHL bus. If that's Nichushkin ... well it will be a bad pick, and not because he is Russian.

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If you had two prospects, with the same skill set and talent level, but the only difference being one was from North America and the other from Russia. Which do you choose?
This is like saying if i fell in love with two identical twins, but one was a marginally better cook, wasn't afraid of Pidgeons, and didn't like Cheese, i'd choose her. Nichushkin has an entirely different skill-set to any other player in this draft. So your analogy doesn't work. No player combines the speed and physical power that he has. Of course, he has his cons, and other prospects excell better in other areas.

If both players did in this idealistic world have the same talent and abilities, i'd probably take the player who i prefered character wise, the player who interviewed better.

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03-21-2013, 11:25 AM
  #491
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
He's 20. He's the same age as Nick Bjugstad. So no, this example doesn't work.

Anymore?
You asked me to name a high end Russian prospect who has never ventured over to the NA.

How does my answer not work? Maybe you need to make your question more specific.

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03-21-2013, 11:26 AM
  #492
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
It's like me mentioning that i once went to primary school when discussing my qualifications in a job interview. Brilliant? Nichushkin is Russian and plays domestically for now. Why your mentioning the Soviet Union i don't know.

Filatov came to the AHL at 18. He then re-tried the AHL again. He's had two seperate NHL organisations, played for both at the AHL and NHL level. He failed with both. Filatov is now in the KHL, where he is not exactly one of the better players in the league. Filatov failed as a prospect because he was weak, immature and was handled poorly by Columbus. The AHL at 18 wasn't a good idea. Filatov himself must take much of the blame too. He didn't fail because he was Russian. He isn't an example of the Russian factor since he came over, twice. He isn't refined enough or good enough within his particular skill-set to be an NHL player. Simple as.

There is no other risk to acknowledge. If a Russian player is good enough, and handled well, he isn't a risk. In all honesty, this is the same with most prospects. The Russian factor only really applies to older less talented prospects (or young prospects who rush themselves over to NA via peer pressure from the NHL) who can make more capital at home rather than riding the AHL bus. If that's Nichushkin ... well it will be a bad pick, and not because he is Russian.



This is like saying if i fell in love with two identical twins, but one was a marginally better cook, wasn't afraid of Pidgeons, and didn't like Cheese, i'd choose her. Nichushkin has an entirely different skill-set to any other player in this draft. So your analogy doesn't work. No player combines the speed and physical power that he has. Of course, he has his cons, and other prospects excell better in other areas.

If both players did in this idealistic world have the same talent and abilities, i'd probably take the player who i prefered character wise, the player who interviewed better.
Where a player comes from makes a difference whether you want to believe it or not. There is a comfort level with playing at "home" and anyone, not just hockey players, are more likely to take a job close to their home. And I actually did take a job specifically for that reason a couple years ago, so I could go home, and yes I did mention it in my interview. So it does matter.

I agree that Filatov in the end was a poor prospect, but the his contract with the KHL was an additional headache. He also did not want to play in the AHL and went back to the KHL. You think a North American prospect will do that? I don't think so.

You still didn't answer my question. I'm asking the question, not because you would ever have an identical player, but because it helps to frame the question with respect to the Russian factor and parse out whether you would consider if there is any risk at all.

So, all things being equal (talent, skill, and character), would you choose a North American or Russian prospect?

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03-21-2013, 11:31 AM
  #493
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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
I could but it would be in poor taste since he died in Russia.
Would also be entirely useless, since he died at 20 if i recall.

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I believe back in 2000 there was a kid taken 15th overall that never came over from Russia but cant remember his name now.
If you can't remember his name, then he probably wasn't a particularly good player. The player you are thinking of is Artem Kryukov, and yes, he's not a very good player.

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We get thats how you feel about it but teams dont think like you. They arent just drafting for the next 20 yrs...they are drafting for both the next 20 yrs and often who can make the biggest impact as quickly as possible so they turn their fortunes around. So that goes into who they feel is the best player available at those spots. And thats why you often see Russian players slide because they often are 2-4 yrs away from even making an impact in the NHL.
Some teams will share my view, some teams won't. I'm not speaking from any NHL teams' perspective. I am speaking from my perspective, what i deem logical. I'd given my views, and do not pretend that Tallon or whoever else will share the same sentiments. I fully expect Nichushkin to slide. All i'm saying is i entirely disagree with the logic behind the Russian factor.

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And there have been a lot of players drafted in the top 3 who were 18/19 yrs old and had immediate impacts in recent yrs. Kane, Toews, Stamkos, Backstrom, & Duchene all had impressive debuts and helped their teams right away. I wouldnt say any of those teams are poorly run and we have the guy running our club that drafted 2 of those guys.
You somewhat miss my point. Their careers will last 15+ years. One can't entirely discount that having two productive years at 18/19 isn't useful for teams, but it isn't the bee all and end all. Stamkos had a terrible 18 yr old season. Duchene is only now becoming a significant NHL player. Backstrom joined at 19, and was helped by Ovechkin on his wing. If i think Nichushkin is going to be a better player at 23/24 than other players in this draft, i'm taking him (Note, i don't think he will, but we know this more of a semantics debate than prospect debate). That is simply my philosophy on the draft.

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Actually the one reason I would take MacKinnon over any of the other forwards is his 2-way ability right now. He's got the potential to impact the game right away and not as the growing pains you would normally see from a rookie. And keep in mind, its not uncommon that players do take a yr to get accustomed to the NHL before they really break out. So even if a player continues to develop overseas like Nichushkin, he'll still take an additional yr in the NHL before you see the true results of his play. So eating up a yr of a player at 18 where you get solid play but not elite so that when they are 19, that often makes more sense to NHL clubs than waiting until those players are coming in as 21 yrs old and then not getting any big results until 22. By 22, that 18 yr old has probably made more impact on your club than the other player would have.
Barkov and Monahaon are better two way players than Mackinnon. Secretely, i kinda want Barkov, even though i understand that Drouin and Mackinnon are more dynamic players.

It's a factor yes, but again, we drafting for an NHL career, not a teenage career.

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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
Stereotypes are there because there has been some common reason for it. If something occurs several times and seems to keep happening, then that isnt uncommon to see a stereotype develop. As I said above, MacKinnon is probably the one player among that group that has less work to do in his own zone. Thats why I would prefer him over the others more than anything.
Some stereotypes have application and merit. Others do not. I've explained several times the obvious flaws with the Russian stereotype. It's also evident that within hockey (well this forum), there is a clear anti-russian sentiment that often doesn't reflect the situation or logic behind it, with some people.

Again, Barkov >> Mackinnon in terms of being a two player. I actually don't think it's particularly close, as of now, either. Not that this particularly concerns me.

I've yet to be given an example of high end Russian players not crossing the water. The only examples so far are of players who aren't good enough in the first place.

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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
Yes defensive capabilities can be coached but that means a longer development timeline. As I said above, a top 3 pick has generally been expected to impact the lineup within 1 yr of being drafted and if you have to wait until 23 yrs old for a player to be competent defensively, then you're a continually losing team IMO as compared to a team that has a player that at a young age is able to quickly develop that defensive side. For example, see Tyler Seguin
Eh? We're discussing defensive awareness. Very few elite offensive players excell in this area at 17/18. It will come with time. I dont really care that much if Yakupov, Drouin, Nylander, whomever, isn't that capable in that area yet. Kovalchuk, Spezza, Datsyuk, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kessel, Backstrom, Kane etc etc etc etc all took time to become competent, or in some cases, still aren't competent.

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03-21-2013, 11:40 AM
  #494
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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
Where a player comes from makes a difference whether you want to believe it or not. There is a comfort level with playing at "home" and anyone, not just hockey players, are more likely to take a job close to their home. And I actually did take a job specifically for that reason a couple years ago, so I could go home, and yes I did mention it in my interview. So it does matter.
Is your job in the NHL. Is your job worth millions of dollars. Is your job something you likely grew up dreaming? Is your employer as powerful as the NHL?

Yes, Russians will sometimes want to stay at home, which is fine and natural. But high end Russian players who are offered big money, little to no AHL time, nearly always come to North America. I've yet to see this salient fact challenged. No clue how Nichushkin feels, hence interviews etc are important, but the trends are obvious.

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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
I agree that Filatov in the end was a poor prospect, but the his contract with the KHL was an additional headache. He also did not want to play in the AHL and went back to the KHL. You think a North American prospect will do that? I don't think so.
He came over at 18. The AHL isn't a good place for young Russian prospect IMO, but that remains a different discussion. He came over, struggled, went home, struggled, came back, struggled, went home, is struggling.

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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
You still didn't answer my question. I'm asking the question, not because you would ever have an identical player, but because it helps to frame the question with respect to the Russian factor and parse out whether you would consider if there is any risk at all.
I answered your question, you simply have chosen to assume i have not.

If your question is, the EXACT same player, i'm taking the personality i prefer. If they are EXACTLY the same in that regard, and it's a + in that regard, then i decide based on style, since Russian players can join the AHL, which CHL players cannot. Hence .. this question is pointless, because there are so many things to factor in.

So, all things being equal (talent, skill, and character), would you choose a North American or Russian prospect?[/QUOTE]

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03-21-2013, 12:02 PM
  #495
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Would also be entirely useless, since he died at 20 if i recall.
Not true, you asked for a player that never ventured over to NA, and he's a specific example. And unfortunately, he never will so thats an example you asked for, regardless of how old he was when he died. The question I think a lot of people asked is would he have died if he was playing in NA and most believe he would still be alive today if he was playing over here (which I agree also).

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03-21-2013, 12:13 PM
  #496
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Originally Posted by Coolburn View Post
Not true, you asked for a player that never ventured over to NA, and he's a specific example. And unfortunately, he never will so thats an example you asked for, regardless of how old he was when he died. The question I think a lot of people asked is would he have died if he was playing in NA and most believe he would still be alive today if he was playing over here (which I agree also).
He was 19. Most NHL players don't make it at that age. He also died.

So yes, it's an entirely redundant example

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03-21-2013, 01:14 PM
  #497
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Is your job in the NHL. Is your job worth millions of dollars. Is your job something you likely grew up dreaming? Is your employer as powerful as the NHL?

Yes, Russians will sometimes want to stay at home, which is fine and natural. But high end Russian players who are offered big money, little to no AHL time, nearly always come to North America. I've yet to see this salient fact challenged. No clue how Nichushkin feels, hence interviews etc are important, but the trends are obvious.
No need to get snarky. I only mentioned my own situation as an example. Hockey players may be making millions and playing a game for money, but that doesn't mean they won't want to do it where they are comfortable. The KHL can offer the same amount of money as the NHL.

I don't know how Nichushkin feels either, but at this point and as far as we all know, he has made no actions that would indicate that he wants to come to North America, which is why some people are concerned. I'm not saying that he is for certain staying in Russia, and he may very well be planning to come over. All I am saying is that at this time it is reasonable to consider it as a risk, however small.

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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
He came over at 18. The AHL isn't a good place for young Russian prospect IMO, but that remains a different discussion. He came over, struggled, went home, struggled, came back, struggled, went home, is struggling.
The AHL may not be a good place for a Russian prospect, but it is a good place to learn the North American game. If a Russian player refuses to play in the AHL, then that to me is a negative. The fact that Filatov did not have to stick with playing it out in the AHL because he had the KHL as a fallback option is exactly my point. There is flight risk, because there are other options for them.


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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I answered your question, you simply have chosen to assume i have not.

If your question is, the EXACT same player, i'm taking the personality i prefer. If they are EXACTLY the same in that regard, and it's a + in that regard, then i decide based on style, since Russian players can join the AHL, which CHL players cannot. Hence .. this question is pointless, because there are so many things to factor in.
The question is not pointless because teams do have to evaluate all aspects when selecting a prospect. Whether or not a prospect may not even play for them IS something that needs to be evaluated. Whether this means figuring out if a player may not come to North America or whether a play just abhors your team, you have to figure it into the equation.

I actually think the Russian risk has generally been overblown, but to simply disregard it and not factor it into our drafting decisions is simply negligent.

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03-21-2013, 01:25 PM
  #498
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Flight risk is part of the Russian factor.

See Nikita Filatov.

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03-21-2013, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I'm sorry, but you believe there is correlation simply through nationality? Nichushkin and Kozlov were born in what is regarded to be the same state. That is all.

Proven anything? As opposed to all the other top prospects available who have? We're drafting 17/18 year old players based on projections.

The anti-Russian sentiments displayed by so many North Americans is so bizarre and ignorant. If you've watched Nichushkin and are skeptical based on his play, and whether he has the intelligence to go with the tools, fine ... but his passport has nothing to do with how he plays hockey.
OK maybe I should elaborate my point - that he is unproven. And yes, that tends to apply to Russian prospects because they play alot less games than North American prospects. That's not ignorance, that is fact.
He only scored 2 points in 6 games in the world juniors. He's played a total of thirty games in the KHL scoring 12 points. I'm sorry, you want to spend the top draft pick on a guy who's only played enough to score 14 points in his career? (he does have some underage stuff but I don't think that is worth much to extrapolate to NHL).

Compare that to Mackinnon: 181 points in 119 games in the QMJHL, 1 point in 6 games in world juniors.
That's just one player, but the fact is players from Russia in particular play less games and have less exposure. While you CAN have a player that pans out, I find that many times they are overhyped because it is an 18 year old kid who is 6 ft 2 200 lbs and people like the size and possibilities without being able to do enough scouting on them. We have seen many amazing "practice" players that can show off for a scout but can't do anything when it counts. On the other hand, NCAA and CHL players have alot more games to show for themselves and one can make an educated decision.

Finally, please don't make assumptions about me - I don't appreciate you insinuating that I am ignorant. I do plenty of reading and research. I don't claim to be a scout by any means, just a passionate fan. I do appreciate the fact that it struck a chord since I said he was Russian, but hopefully I explained myself why I said that.

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03-22-2013, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
I don't know how Nichushkin feels either, but at this point and as far as we all know, he has made no actions that would indicate that he wants to come to North America, which is why some people are concerned. I'm not saying that he is for certain staying in Russia, and he may very well be planning to come over. All I am saying is that at this time it is reasonable to consider it as a risk, however small.
Then the risk is the same as with Barkov, Lindholm and other European players? Since we do not know their intentions, we can assume there is minimal risk that they do not come over.

Of course i'm being a tad facetious, since this is a discussion framed within Russian misconceptions and anxities. Still, there isn't a ton of evidence to show that as a rule, Russian elite players are difficult to get over. So ...


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Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
The AHL may not be a good place for a Russian prospect, but it is a good place to learn the North American game. If a Russian player refuses to play in the AHL, then that to me is a negative. The fact that Filatov did not have to stick with playing it out in the AHL because he had the KHL as a fallback option is exactly my point. There is flight risk, because there are other options for them.
This is a different discussion, and i won't go into it in this thread. I'd only end up ranting.

Yes, the flight risk is definitely something that needs to be factored in. It's actually the bigger problem, by far. This is where player development comes in. Some organisations excel in it. Some don't.




Quote:
Originally Posted by pantherbot View Post
The question is not pointless because teams do have to evaluate all aspects when selecting a prospect. Whether or not a prospect may not even play for them IS something that needs to be evaluated. Whether this means figuring out if a player may not come to North America or whether a play just abhors your team, you have to figure it into the equation.

I actually think the Russian risk has generally been overblown, but to simply disregard it and not factor it into our drafting decisions is simply negligent.
The question is pointless because it is framed within a set of incredibly unrealistic parameters. Indeed, these set list of rules can be manipulated to get more and more ridiculous, until it really isn't a question worth asking yourself.

What you're discussing is character homework. This is pretty important. If you don't like the character, don't draft him. If he seems flakey, don't draft him. Filatov IMO played a large part in his downfall. Columbus didn't manage him very well, but also didn't do a very good job of realising this might happen.

I've yet to see anybody give any competent argument to counter the idea that getting elite Russian players over to North America is an issue. You may have to wait an extra or two, for various reasons, but then as Craig Button says on one of his recent podcasts, your drafting an NHL career, not who can achieve the fastest erection.

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