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The NEXT week will define this team

View Poll Results: Point Predictions for the next 5 games
≥ 9 7 7.95%
7 20 22.73%
5 45 51.14%
≤3 16 18.18%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-21-2013, 09:29 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nafrelio View Post
I predict that the team will do better in the next 5 games against middling/struggling teams than they will against the top teams we'll be facing in April...

March - STL (x2), CLB, NSH, VAN - prediction 5GP: 2-2-1-5pts

April - ANA (x3), CHI, LA, MIN, VAN (x2), CGY (x3), PHO, COL - prediction 14GP: 5-7-3-13pts

So no, the next 5 games will not define the Oilers, even if they creep up the standings for a few days. They'll drop down again by the end and miss the playoffs. Debbie downer I know, but the April schedule is tougher.
So April will be... Loss x3, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss x2, 1 win + 2 loss, Win, Win

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Old
03-21-2013, 09:33 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
They've already defined themselves via a multitude of damning stats. Like I said in the "Are the playoffs still makeable?" thread: The only reason we're still in the playoff race is because of the shortened season. If we're talking a full 82 game schedule we're tracking no differently than the previous three seasons.
It seems like this is lost on most of the media people this year.

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Old
03-21-2013, 09:43 AM
  #28
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Positive - Oilers are a .500 team this year = some progression from last year

Negative - Oilers don't have any consistancy when it comes to going on winning streaks. They have not won more than 2 in a row. Loser points are just that. They lost. No shoot outs in play offs. Coaching is starting to be a glaring question mark when it comes to coaching the last 10 mins of game, re: line management.

Next 5 games = 4 points

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Old
03-21-2013, 09:54 AM
  #29
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Wait, what? I thought the 9 game road trip was going to define them? And then the 4 game home stand?

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Old
03-21-2013, 09:54 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Well the team is on pace for ~48 pts which would be good for ~82 pts over a regular 82 game season... definitely still mediocre but also quite a step up from the last 3 years when they were in the low 60's to low 70's point range each year.
yeah we are on pace for 82 points, which since the last lockout puts us in about 22nd-23rd place each year... this is pretty much exactly where i thought we would finish this season (22nd to be exact)... so far the year is what i expected

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:00 AM
  #31
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Quote:
The NEXT week will define this team
...and then the next, and the next, and the next...

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:00 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Wait, what? I thought the 9 game road trip was going to define them? And then the 4 game home stand?
It already defines them as a bunch of chokers.

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:01 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Wait, what? I thought the 9 game road trip was going to define them? And then the 4 game home stand?
That's the great thing about the Oilers... They're constantly redefining themselves.

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:32 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Wait, what? I thought the 9 game road trip was going to define them? And then the 4 game home stand?
So many naysayers, if we would have won the shoot out, everyone would be rolling around gleefully at how awesome the Oilers are. And no, I don't think an unnaturally long road trip defines this team. But they did go 3-4-2 on the trip, which is decent.

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:34 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nafrelio View Post
I predict that the team will do better in the next 5 games against middling/struggling teams than they will against the top teams we'll be facing in April...

March - STL (x2), CLB, NSH, VAN - prediction 5GP: 2-2-1-5pts

April - ANA (x3), CHI, LA, MIN, VAN (x2), CGY (x3), PHO, COL - prediction 14GP: 5-7-3-13pts

So no, the next 5 games will not define the Oilers, even if they creep up the standings for a few days. They'll drop down again by the end and miss the playoffs. Debbie downer I know, but the April schedule is tougher.
but the next 5 games could define if we'll be getting Seth Jones or not..

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:36 AM
  #36
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Personally, the last couple of games kinda' wrapped up the most complete definition of this team anyone could ever need.

They've got a little bit going for themselves. Its enough to keep them out of last place annd probably even enough to flirt with a cheap imitation of a playoff spot.

But they have nowhere near enough of "what it takes" to actually make the playoffs.

Think about it...they've came up JUST short on every single "test" up to this point.

They've got quite a few people fooled at this point...because each time they "fail" its only by a question or two...and thats why we get threads such as this one...nothing more than a discussion in regard to how many "re-writes" we should give them before we write them off.

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:42 AM
  #37
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The last several years have defined this team.

But this year, more specifically what defines them is a W never being a W until the buzzer sounds. This is a team that apparently believes a 4 goal lead is the worst lead in hockey, that going into the 3rd period tied is a hopeless situation, and that having a two goal lead in the 3rd is insurmountable odds...

This is your team folks. Making losses out of potential wins.

Oddly enough the first few games they were the ones getting wins against the grain. But soon after getting walloped by SJ the club lost belief in itself and fairly expected to be losing games. You can see that with how much this club lacks resilience.

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Old
03-21-2013, 10:44 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Everest View Post
Personally, the last couple of games kinda' wrapped up the most complete definition of this team anyone could ever need.

They've got a little bit going for themselves. Its enough to keep them out of last place annd probably even enough to flirt with a cheap imitation of a playoff spot.

But they have nowhere near enough of "what it takes" to actually make the playoffs.

Think about it...they've came up JUST short on every single "test" up to this point.

They've got quite a few people fooled at this point...because each time they "fail" its only by a question or two...and thats why we get threads such as this one...nothing more than a discussion in regard to how many "re-writes" we should give them before we write them off.
This is total bs, how can people say this about a team that was 2nd last a year ago. They beat Chicago, almost twice, and competed against top teams all season. They have had only 5 games where they were very bad. Compare that to last year! Try having a little perspective for once

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Old
03-21-2013, 11:48 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Yablo21 View Post
This is total bs, how can people say this about a team that was 2nd last a year ago. They beat Chicago, almost twice, and competed against top teams all season. They have had only 5 games where they were very bad. Compare that to last year! Try having a little perspective for once
They didnt start last season in second last place. Their record after this many games last year was just about the same. They looked great in the early running last season but in the end they finished second last. They're still a young fragile team unable to play at a consistent level. They are more likely to fall back to the bottom than they are to make the playoffs. Looking at the situation objectively the team still isnt very good, we can hope they'll suddenly turn things around and go on a long winning streak but realistically they are much more likely to finish with 7 regulation wins or less than they are to finish with only 7 losses or less.

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Old
03-21-2013, 12:24 PM
  #40
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They've defined themselves all year as a team that plays for the OT/SO point at minimum. Even if they are leading.

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Old
03-21-2013, 12:25 PM
  #41
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Oilers last season compared to this season:

Goals for: 20th to 25th... got worse
Goals against: 23rd to 20th... slightly better
PP: 3rd to 6th... slightly worse
PK: 14th to 11th... slightly better
Shots for: 29th to 22nd... got better
Shots against: 19th to 30th... got worse
5 on 5 goals for/against ratio: 22nd to 29th... got worse
Faceoffs: 27th to 30th... got worse

Win % when leading after 1 period: 28th to 28th... stayed the same
Win % when leading after 2 periods: 20th to 29th... got worse
Win % when trailing after 1 period: 20th to 5th... improved
Win % when trailing after 2 periods: 21st to 4th... improved


Hard to make a case for substantial improvements in the team.

The one area they seem to have improved is playing when down... they seem to be able to hang in and come back more often than they did last year but they counter that with not being able to play with the lead and hang onto it very well.

They still get outshot badly, are worst in the NHL at faceoffs, and have actually dropped in offensive production from last season (not many would have predicted that I think). We all know how poorly they've been at even strength. They have improved a little as of late but are still near the basement in that category.

Overall you could make a case that the team is lucky to be where it is... a point per game pace is probably being generous to this team... they've been able to eek out enough extra OT/SO pts to push them up the standings... but really the underlying stats don't show much improvement at all and in some areas they have actually regressed quite badly.

I'm optimistic this team turns a corner someday but it doesn't look like it will be this season... hopefully they have a decent finish over these final games this year and use that to build on in a full 82 game season next year.

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Old
03-21-2013, 12:52 PM
  #42
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I've been thinking about it, and I now believe this team will define itself on February 3rd, 2014.

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Old
03-21-2013, 01:01 PM
  #43
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No defining needed.


This team has played like a .500 hockey team from opening day of the season.

We have our Up's and our Down's, and not much in between.

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Old
03-21-2013, 01:19 PM
  #44
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It'd be nice to see Sam Gagner carry his team on his back like he did in his rookie season. The supporting cast is certainly better than it was then.

I said 7 points. The back-to-back next week is so-so-so-so important. Win those two and they'll have the West's attention.

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Old
03-21-2013, 03:42 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Oilers last season compared to this season:.
So your comparing 29 games vs 82 games? You did a lot of work to discuss a skewed comparison.

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Old
03-21-2013, 03:50 PM
  #46
Njoy Oilers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Oilers last season compared to this season:

Goals for: 20th to 25th... got worse
Goals against: 23rd to 20th... slightly better
PP: 3rd to 6th... slightly worse
PK: 14th to 11th... slightly better
Shots for: 29th to 22nd... got better
Shots against: 19th to 30th... got worse
5 on 5 goals for/against ratio: 22nd to 29th... got worse
Faceoffs: 27th to 30th... got worse

Win % when leading after 1 period: 28th to 28th... stayed the same
Win % when leading after 2 periods: 20th to 29th... got worse
Win % when trailing after 1 period: 20th to 5th... improved
Win % when trailing after 2 periods: 21st to 4th... improved


Hard to make a case for substantial improvements in the team.

The one area they seem to have improved is playing when down... they seem to be able to hang in and come back more often than they did last year but they counter that with not being able to play with the lead and hang onto it very well.

They still get outshot badly, are worst in the NHL at faceoffs, and have actually dropped in offensive production from last season (not many would have predicted that I think). We all know how poorly they've been at even strength. They have improved a little as of late but are still near the basement in that category.

Overall you could make a case that the team is lucky to be where it is... a point per game pace is probably being generous to this team... they've been able to eek out enough extra OT/SO pts to push them up the standings... but really the underlying stats don't show much improvement at all and in some areas they have actually regressed quite badly.

I'm optimistic this team turns a corner someday but it doesn't look like it will be this season... hopefully they have a decent finish over these final games this year and use that to build on in a full 82 game season next year.
Great post. Amazed that they play better when trying to catch up. Also, we allowed less shots last year, and the only difference being Whitney being back, and adding J Schultz and Yak. Hmmm

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Old
03-21-2013, 03:53 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilDrop37 View Post
So your comparing 29 games vs 82 games? You did a lot of work to discuss a skewed comparison.
But, it gives an accurate picture of what the majority have been saying. Except for the experts of course.

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Old
03-21-2013, 04:03 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Njoy Oilers View Post
Great post. Amazed that they play better when trying to catch up. Also, we allowed less shots last year, and the only difference being Whitney being back, and adding J Schultz and Yak. Hmmm
New coach.

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Old
03-21-2013, 05:23 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by OneMoreAstronaut View Post
New coach.
Doh! Yeah forgot Wreckit.

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Old
03-21-2013, 08:10 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilDrop37 View Post
So your comparing 29 games vs 82 games? You did a lot of work to discuss a skewed comparison.
Well my crystal ball is broken and they've only played 29 games so far... so that's all I can actually use for the comparison. The season is only 48 games long so it's actually 60% completed.

You are welcome to make up whatever other imaginary games you like to add to it if you want a bigger sample.

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