HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New York Rangers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Tyler Dellow on hitting: 11-12 NYR had most road hits

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-21-2013, 01:13 PM
  #1
1994sec311
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 126
vCash: 500
Tyler Dellow on hitting: 11-12 NYR had most road hits

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5617

Even teams that hit a lot tend to do better when they get out-hit than when they hit. The Rangers led the league in road hits last year (ie. they were likely the most physical team in the NHL) and did better home and away when being out-hit. Ditto the Penguins, who were second in road hits. The Blues and Kings (third and fourth) are inconclusive, as they each did better in one locale when outhitting and another when being outhit. The only other top ten teams in road hits (which Iím using as a sort of proxy for physicality) who did better when being outhit in one of home or away were the Leafs and Flames. Nobody did better when outhitting both home and away.

1994sec311 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 01:34 PM
  #2
GrizMint
Registered User
 
GrizMint's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: United States
Posts: 307
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1994sec311 View Post
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5617

Even teams that hit a lot tend to do better when they get out-hit than when they hit. The Rangers led the league in road hits last year (ie. they were likely the most physical team in the NHL) and did better home and away when being out-hit. Ditto the Penguins, who were second in road hits. The Blues and Kings (third and fourth) are inconclusive, as they each did better in one locale when outhitting and another when being outhit. The only other top ten teams in road hits (which Iím using as a sort of proxy for physicality) who did better when being outhit in one of home or away were the Leafs and Flames. Nobody did better when outhitting both home and away.
Interesting. Hits are the most arbitrary stat in the game. Every home team scorer, scores differently. So comparing one team to another isn't a solid indicator, because one team might award 25% more hits to both the home and away team.

However, in this case, it is nice to see the rangers over a large sample, with different scoring officials lead the league. How are we doing this year on the road? Any direct correlation between hits on the road and Gf/GA on the road?

GrizMint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 01:58 PM
  #3
1994sec311
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 126
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizMint View Post
Interesting. Hits are the most arbitrary stat in the game. Every home team scorer, scores differently. So comparing one team to another isn't a solid indicator, because one team might award 25% more hits to both the home and away team.

However, in this case, it is nice to see the rangers over a large sample, with different scoring officials lead the league. How are we doing this year on the road? Any direct correlation between hits on the road and Gf/GA on the road?
Thanks. His stuff is generally very good. His point about hitting generally is that hitting for its own sake has a correlation with losing. He thinks the stats show you should hit to separate a man from the puck , but not just for its own sake, because there are cost opportunities with hitting.

1994sec311 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 02:20 PM
  #4
StaalWars
TeaOrrCoffey
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York City
Posts: 2,188
vCash: 500
Dellow is my favorite hockey writer bar none. I've actually developed a minor interest in the Oilers as a result of reading all his posts.

This was a really good article. Interesting that the Rangers kind of bucked the trend and were the exception to the idea that hitting has no correlation with winning.. I think some of that is probably MSG scorer bias which is notorious among all the advanced stats writers.

StaalWars is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 02:28 PM
  #5
GrizMint
Registered User
 
GrizMint's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Country: United States
Posts: 307
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1994sec311 View Post
Thanks. His stuff is generally very good. His point about hitting generally is that hitting for its own sake has a correlation with losing. He thinks the stats show you should hit to separate a man from the puck , but not just for its own sake, because there are cost opportunities with hitting.
After taking a quick look at the article, I think the next step is to really look at hits per zone. While separating the puck is certainly the best part of an average hit, it isn't the only perk, especially in the offensive zone.

Almost have to make the distinction, Offensive Hits, Netural Zone hits, Defensive Zone hits.

While hits in the defensive zone can be game changers, (like Staals huge hit to Matt Stajan)... high hit totals reflect having poor puck possession time, or being pinned down.

When you think the offensive zone, you have to be happy with hits because you are trying to put pressure on, force bad plays and keep them on their heels even if you don't seperate the puck because you have plenty of time to recover.

Neutral Zone depends entirely on the teams system. (Rangers don't get hit too often because they dump 99%, but also don't hit often because they collapse) Wouldn't mind stepping up more often against the Penguins and faster teams to try and slow them down.

With the way the team has been playing this year, even before the article, I would have thought if the Rangers out hit the other team 30 to 15, it was because they were running around without the puck. I am just shocked with last year because I felt we had so many good games we won, where we smoked the other team in the hit department. (At least on the stat sheet)

GrizMint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 02:28 PM
  #6
1994sec311
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 126
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by StaalWars View Post
Dellow is my favorite hockey writer bar none. I've actually developed a minor interest in the Oilers as a result of reading all his posts.

This was a really good article. Interesting that the Rangers kind of bucked the trend and were the exception to the idea that hitting has no correlation with winning.. I think some of that is probably MSG scorer bias which is notorious among all the advanced stats writers.
Agreed, he's great. Regrets if I missed it, but what part of the analysis are the NYR the exception to? His point is that you do better when you get out-hit than you do when out-hitting the other team. That was true with respect to the NYR as well, both in home and road games.

1994sec311 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-21-2013, 02:30 PM
  #7
1994sec311
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 126
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizMint View Post
....
While hits in the defensive zone can be game changers, (like Staals huge hit to Matt Stajan)... high hit totals reflect having poor puck possession time, or being pinned down. ...
Yeah, that's a good point I hadn't thought of . I wonder if Dellow has addressed that the out-hitting/losing relationship could be correlation and not cauusation. He's good enough that I'm sure he has, but I must have skipped over it/not seen it.

1994sec311 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:04 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2016 All Rights Reserved.