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Old
03-20-2013, 09:37 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
If Boyle doesn't hold enough trade value that he can't pull a good young speedy forward then I'd keep him. I would keep Marleau without any hesitation so long as he's not making more than 6-6.5 mil at the most. I would not keep Thornton...under any circumstances.
Yeah yeah Patrick we know how much you hate Joe stealing your thunder.

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03-20-2013, 10:01 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Mafoofoo View Post
Yeah yeah Patrick we know how much you hate Joe stealing your thunder.
Yeah yeah yeah...go get back on your knee pads, sir.

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03-21-2013, 12:29 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by OrrNumber4 View Post
What's not clear?

I am saying that it makes sense for JT, Marleau, and Boyle to take secondary roles if they actually decline.

But if they don't decline, and you are committed to continuing with a younger group (that is less talented), then you have to let the older players go.

Thornton's style usually improves with age.
I'd have thought that Boyle would decline, but he does have less-wear-and-tear on his body and is going strong at 37.

I'd have thought Marleau will decline, but Boyle's perseverance has surprised me.
Bull.

We have gone over it and over it and I haven't seen a good refutation of the research where I demonstrated that similar players to Patty and JT usually hit the wall around age 37. About the same. And, we are watching JT's possession skills taking a big hit right now and it is related to moving his feet. It is possible that there is an injury, but should this continue he is definitely in decline. If players do not continually work out off ice as they age, they will decline more rapidly. The other issue with decline in elite players is that it doesn't show in point totals initially. It will show in other areas. The coach will get softer and softer minutes for those elite players, shifting the weight of non-scoring play to lesser players in the lineup. The progression is ugly trying to save face for that elite player and crippling the team. A pure points argument on decline is a straw man. It is around age 37 that their points actually take a noticeable hit. They can't do it even with softer matchups.

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03-21-2013, 01:40 PM
  #54
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Can you point to said research where you demonstrated 37 is the magic number of players becoming a team cancer?

I think it's foolish to say anyone's skill improves with age (on the backside of their career), but the real question is: at age 37, are they going to be more effective than some "lesser" player on your roster? My money is on Yes.

I can't think of a Thornton-type player who played 'til 40+, but I think with Marleau's health history, he could take on a Selanne-type role until retirement.

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03-21-2013, 02:01 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by EastBayShark View Post
Can you point to said research where you demonstrated 37 is the magic number of players becoming a team cancer?

I think it's foolish to say anyone's skill improves with age (on the backside of their career), but the real question is: at age 37, are they going to be more effective than some "lesser" player on your roster? My money is on Yes.

I can't think of a Thornton-type player who played 'til 40+, but I think with Marleau's health history, he could take on a Selanne-type role until retirement.
It is not a magic number, it is an average. However, the players tend to bunch around that number. I went into the details of production as well which confirmed that the coaches were catering to their superstars' production. They lose the defensive side of the puck first.

I went for the super bigs (no more than average speed) for JT (eg Sundin) and the fast types (eg Modano) for Marleau. Selanne is an exception just as Lindros is an exception the other way. I omitted players with significant injuries as exceptions. Sakic is another for a Marleau type, Nieuwendyk for JT.

They will be more effective than other players if the GM is unsuccessful in securing the services of a better player. But if said GM is unsuccessful, do not be surprised to see said team plummet down the standings (eg Toronto).

If you look at the details of how Couture, Marleau, JT and Pavs are being played currently. Marleau and now Couture are surpassing JT and taking more responsibility in terms of ice time. It is better that the coach acknowledges the shifting of the tides in ice time. It gets ugly if the coach tries to pump the stats of the "star" when his play does not warrant it.

I am perfectly willing to accept either JT or Marleau being an exception, but they will have to prove it with their play. I won't speculate positively for either based on like or dislike, a point with which I am sure you would agree. It really grinds me when someone pulls the JT card when his current play is indicative of a decline with no recent games to show that it may only be an injury.

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03-21-2013, 03:35 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
If you look at the details of how Couture, Marleau, JT and Pavs are being played currently. Marleau and now Couture are surpassing JT and taking more responsibility in terms of ice time. It is better that the coach acknowledges the shifting of the tides in ice time.
Marleau and Thornton's ES ice-times have been pretty even this month though. Sometimes one gets about 20-30 seconds more per game, but that could just be from one extended shift.

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03-21-2013, 04:04 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
Marleau and Thornton's ES ice-times have been pretty even this month though. Sometimes one gets about 20-30 seconds more per game, but that could just be from one extended shift.
thornton this season is at 14:37
marleau this season is at 13:53

power play time is identical

penalty kill marleau is the leader by about a minute, but that really is expected. even if thornton's defensive game has gotten better.

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03-21-2013, 04:31 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Barrie22 View Post
thornton this season is at 14:37
marleau this season is at 13:53

power play time is identical

penalty kill marleau is the leader by about a minute, but that really is expected. even if thornton's defensive game has gotten better.
The trend has reversed itself recently. Marleau was playing very little (relative to usual) at even strength at the beginning of the season, probably to get him into game shape. He was 8th in EVTOI among forwards for a while. Recently he's been playing more than Thornton.

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03-21-2013, 04:38 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
The trend has reversed itself recently. Marleau was playing very little (relative to usual) at even strength at the beginning of the season, probably to get him into game shape. He was 8th in EVTOI among forwards for a while. Recently he's been playing more than Thornton.
It hasn't really been that significant though. From briefly skimming through the box-score this past month, Marleau would have like 20 seconds more for one game, then Thornton would have 10 seconds more the previous game. And then like 40 seconds one game, and then a minute for the other player in the next game.

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03-22-2013, 01:36 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
It hasn't really been that significant though. From briefly skimming through the box-score this past month, Marleau would have like 20 seconds more for one game, then Thornton would have 10 seconds more the previous game. And then like 40 seconds one game, and then a minute for the other player in the next game.
Early on, JT was getting more, way more. I am talking about the trend. Couture was getting little at the outset and has stepped way up. Pavs has dropped a little.

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03-22-2013, 02:31 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Bull.

We have gone over it and over it and I haven't seen a good refutation of the research where I demonstrated that similar players to Patty and JT usually hit the wall around age 37. About the same. And, we are watching JT's possession skills taking a big hit right now and it is related to moving his feet. It is possible that there is an injury, but should this continue he is definitely in decline. If players do not continually work out off ice as they age, they will decline more rapidly. The other issue with decline in elite players is that it doesn't show in point totals initially. It will show in other areas. The coach will get softer and softer minutes for those elite players, shifting the weight of non-scoring play to lesser players in the lineup. The progression is ugly trying to save face for that elite player and crippling the team. A pure points argument on decline is a straw man. It is around age 37 that their points actually take a noticeable hit. They can't do it even with softer matchups.
Well if they are going to hi the wall soon then Sj should probalby seek a trading partner for marleau in the summer or during next season unless he wants to take a hefty HTD..around 4-4.5. Joe's skill set is much more elite and should be retained.

As for JT's possession skills, they might be somewhat lower but without looking up stats i bet he has more takeaways than marleau. Also, marleau compared to JT to their respective work along the boards, and abilities to retain the puck and find guys for solid scoring chances... Joe wins hands down everyday and 2x on Sunday.

BULL..
The other issue with decline in elite players is that it doesn't show in point totals initially.

Ask yourself this, why does Toddr feel the need to continually play marleau with JT when PM should be more than capable to shoulder his own line...with a 1-2 punch SJ could be???? B/c Cooter/Pavs/Havlat cant do the work down low, retain the puck and find Patty..Patty would have to do the board work and he is nowhere near as good as JT.

patty is a sniper, opportunist that, unless has open ice or breakaway, needs others guys like JT to feed him, guys like Jt who have the ability to retain the puck with guys draped all over him, and yet still be able to find marleau..there is no way that relationship gets reversed with 1/4 of the success as PM doesn't have those skills and IMO, his skills, especially his puck skills, are sub par for his pay grade.

and i wont even go into his massive streaks and tendencies to competitively disappear or withdraw...

if it were down to JT and PM...PM skills are replaceable..JT's are not..

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03-22-2013, 04:26 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by PlaywithGutz View Post
Well if they are going to hi the wall soon then Sj should probalby seek a trading partner for marleau in the summer or during next season unless he wants to take a hefty HTD..around 4-4.5. Joe's skill set is much more elite and should be retained.
Both of them would take a HTD imo. Both Marleau and Thornton love it here and want to make this work. Their families and houses are here. However, If one was to be traded, I feel it would be Thornton as he would garner a better return. Marleau always struck me as a guy who will stay with San Jose through thick and thin. This assumes either would waive though, and I honestly don't think it will happen unless things keep going south or they wanted to try to win a Cup somewhere else.

Quote:
As for JT's possession skills, they might be somewhat lower but without looking up stats i bet he has more takeaways than marleau. Also, marleau compared to JT to their respective work along the boards, and abilities to retain the puck and find guys for solid scoring chances... Joe wins hands down everyday and 2x on Sunday.

BULL..
The other issue with decline in elite players is that it doesn't show in point totals initially.
Joe having more takeaways is due to his style of play. He works to strip the puck on the backcheck, and due to his puck handling skills he is able to take it from others and go back on the attack. However, he currently seems to have the tendency to throw the puck away on bad passes. This hopefully is all related to either an injury or some part of McLellan's system, but it could be indicative of decline. We haven't seen this in any form from Marleau in any part of his game.

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Ask yourself this, why does Toddr feel the need to continually play marleau with JT when PM should be more than capable to shoulder his own line...with a 1-2 punch SJ could be???? B/c Cooter/Pavs/Havlat cant do the work down low, retain the puck and find Patty..Patty would have to do the board work and he is nowhere near as good as JT.
Todd loves to match power with power, hence Marleau and Thornton playing together most of the time. We have seen several times when they are separate that they are fully functional without each other; however, when together and on top of their games, they are a powerful duo.

The main reason not to have Patty play center every game is to keep Couture in the middle for eventual transition to #1C. Marleau has spent enough time playing wing for it not to matter which position he plays. Also, all 5 players you mentioned can work down low, retain the puck, and find the open man (assuming that player is actually open). Maybe not as well as Thornton, but they are all capable.

Quote:
patty is a sniper, opportunist that, unless has open ice or breakaway, needs others guys like JT to feed him, guys like Jt who have the ability to retain the puck with guys draped all over him, and yet still be able to find marleau..there is no way that relationship gets reversed with 1/4 of the success as PM doesn't have those skills and IMO, his skills, especially his puck skills, are sub par for his pay grade.

and i wont even go into his massive streaks and tendencies to competitively disappear or withdraw...
Marleau is not much of a pure sniper anymore. He's far more well rounded and does not solely need someone feeding him to score. I've seen him score from multiple areas of the ice, including in the paint or at the point. Furthermore, Marleau earned around half his points before the Thornton trade. I'm also pretty sure I've seen Marleau pass to Thornton with good results, though it usually works best under the standard play as Thornton has a better knack for clean passes and Marleau has a great shot. Really though, saying Marleau has sub-par puck skills is horribly untrue. Yes, compared to Joe, his are lesser, but only a small percentage have better skills than Joe.

As for "streakiness", FTF has an article here that disproves that entire notion. Marleau also disappears far less than other players when he's not scoring.

Quote:
if it were down to JT and PM...PM skills are replaceable..JT's are not..
Are they? The Sharks do not have a highly skilled 1st line winger currently sitting in their prospect pool. Where would they replace Marleau's skills if they traded him/let him walk? Sure, 2014 has a great UFA class now, but who knows how many make it to that summer, as well as the Sharks' inability to bring in big name free agents. As for trades, the fans can always speculate on who they want, but we'll never know beforehand.

Currently, the team already have someone who could play 1st line center in Marleau. Pavelski or Couture could cover it as well, and who knows how well Hertl could do when he comes to NA. Yes, they would not have the same level of skill as Thornton, but they could cover it in case of retool/rebuild depending on who else is brought in.

Somebody feel free to correct me on any of this later. Just finished writing an essay and am to amped up to sleep right now

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03-22-2013, 08:47 AM
  #63
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Ya know, big, durable, speedy, shoot-first wingers might just be the least replaceable piece of talent on the roster. We have too many playmakers.

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03-22-2013, 11:24 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by AJ SF4L View Post
Both of them would take a HTD imo. Both Marleau and Thornton love it here and want to make this work. Their families and houses are here. However, If one was to be traded, I feel it would be Thornton as he would garner a better return. Marleau always struck me as a guy who will stay with San Jose through thick and thin. This assumes either would waive though, and I honestly don't think it will happen unless things keep going south or they wanted to try to win a Cup somewhere else.

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Lots of pros have houses in the cities where they play in..and their would a ton of interest in Marleau in Canada..they have been dreaming of this guy for years. I agree that DW were dumb enough, JT would garner a much better return

Joe having more takeaways is due to his style of play. He works to strip the puck on the backcheck, and due to his puck handling skills he is able to take it from others and go back on the attack. However, he currently seems to have the tendency to throw the puck away on bad passes. This hopefully is all related to either an injury or some part of McLellan's system, but it could be indicative of decline. We haven't seen this in any form from Marleau in any part of his game.

Quote:
His ability has almost nothing to do with it...he is in elite company with this category and it is ...competitive nature. PM is nowhere as tough on the puck as JT is. As for giveaways, you will get this with a setup guy and i bet he is nursing some type of minor injury. You will also get this type of behaivor from a shoot first guy who goes through schnieds, scoring droughts, and poor play. I would take JT's minor giveaways and poor passes(dimishing talents, as others would like to sell it as) anyday over guys like PM who regularly fade out into major schnieds.

Todd loves to match power with power, hence Marleau and Thornton playing together most of the time. We have seen several times when they are separate that they are fully functional without each other; however, when together and on top of their games, they are a powerful duo.

Quote:
Marleau just is not as effective playing alongside Cooter, but he should be for the money he is making

Currently, the team already have someone who could play 1st line center in Marleau. Pavelski or Couture could cover it as well, and who knows how well Hertl could do when he comes to NA. Yes, they would not have the same level of skill as Thornton, but they could cover it in case of retool/rebuild depending on who else is brought in.

Quote:
Sorry but Pavs is not capable of play as a 1st line center..ever. To slow, and often gets tossed around like a rag doll...dcant battle for his own ice...doesnt have the stuff to do it.
Somebody feel free to correct me on any of this later. Just finished writing an essay and am to amped up to sleep right now
take a look at the SJ ALL-TIME Points leaders....JT has 3/4 the points Marleau has in half the time as a Shark..

Once again there is no way to replace the skills JT has but Marleau would be alot easier...

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03-22-2013, 11:28 AM
  #65
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I don't even know why you guys are arguing about this. Patty will never waive his NMC, and never be asked to. We either re-sign him, or he walks for nothing in a year.

The org is not going to all of the sudden start pressuring star players to waive NMC's, it's not going to happen, stop trying to justify it.

If you think we should let Marleau walk in 2014, argue that, but he's not going to be traded. Also, if you think letting a 30 goal scoring 60-70 point forward walk is a good idea I don't know how to help you.

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03-22-2013, 11:29 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Early on, JT was getting more, way more. I am talking about the trend. Couture was getting little at the outset and has stepped way up. Pavs has dropped a little.
That sounds more like going back to the norm instead of shifting responsibilities though.

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03-22-2013, 02:04 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
That sounds more like going back to the norm instead of shifting responsibilities though.
No it is a shift. When they made JT captain, they tried to sell his all-around side, especially his defense and made him first unit PK. That did not end well. They shift for more than one reason. At one point Patty was used to improve the defense of Couture's line when they went against teams with nearly equal top lines. But they also give ice depending on current success in overall game, using either for extra shifts on lower lines. Currently Patty is getting more.

BTW, I checked who was the #2 forward as playmaker, JT obviously leads. It is Pavs currently. Look under first assists at behindthenet. Pay attention to first assist rate for JT because he will always get assists when he gets a lion's share of PP time. It happens to all F2's when first and second PP units are unbalanced on any team.

AJ,
You hit the nail on the head regarding giveaways. It will also be reflected in Corsi. You can check the year-to-year differences at behindthenet.

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03-25-2013, 02:43 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
We have gone over it and over it and I haven't seen a good refutation of the research where I demonstrated that similar players to Patty and JT usually hit the wall around age 37. About the same. And, we are watching JT's possession skills taking a big hit right now and it is related to moving his feet. It is possible that there is an injury, but should this continue he is definitely in decline. If players do not continually work out off ice as they age, they will decline more rapidly.
Yep. JT looks noticeably slower out there.

Even setting aside how his reduced speed kills transitional rushes and odd-man breaks (which is how most goals in the NHL are produced), even just on the micro level, his reduced foot speed makes it harder for him to buy himself the time and space he needs to make the passes he's known for. Which is a major part of the point production decline we've already seen, and will likely continue to see.

But that's not just true of JT or PM, that's true of ALL aging players as they get into their 30's and then late 30's.

It's not so much a question of whether their basic top speed has been hampered by age, it's more a question of how age hampers recovery. Indeed, JT & PM may be just as fast in a one-time flat-out foot race goal line to goal line and back as they were 5-10 years ago. The problem for them is can they still do it at that same speed after 22 minutes of ice time on their 3rd game in 4 nights. The answer is no. It's "no" for just about everybody (exempting steroid cheats). THAT is what age does.

And that's the problem. The legs start moving like molasses 25 seconds into a shift instead of at the 35- or 45-second mark. Double shifting becomes harder. The extra fatigue effects from a 90+ second PP/PK shift lingers for half a period instead of one extra shift.

Or even if there is an injury, that's an age problem, too. Older skaters get injured more often. Their injuries last longer. Their injuries take greater tolls and become much harder to play through than at 26.

When looking at a contract for a mid-30's player, these are all the things one has to account for. Even if JT is roughly the same player on the ice he was a few years ago, if his age forces him to play 5 fewer mins per game and increases the odds he'll miss 15-20 games per season, a good GM has to take ALL of that into account.

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