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03-21-2013, 03:01 AM
  #876
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Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post
It's just to compare them whit the same basis.
DD gets powerplay time and Eller don't.

DD did do good with White and Pouliot.....but so is Eller's 28 points in 79 games last year with Blunden/Darche/Moen/Palushaj/Leblanc/Kostitsyn.

For some reason, for one it was enough to get top line duties...for the other, not enough to get top line assigment....but we're talking about the same production considering the Powerplay time.
Why do you cherry pick with the stats so much?
As a rookie, DD got 22pts, Eller 17 pts. 2nd year, Eller gets 28 pts and DD gets 1st line duties. Sure, the PP production could be similar but if you can't understand why DD was good enough for 1st line duties while Eller wasn't, it's quite simple and frankly as much as you may dislike DD, you should clearly be able to see why. Simply put, Eller in rookie year gets 17 pts. 2nd year 28 pts...with 77 and 79 games respectively. You can cherry pick and manipulate the data all you want, DD got 22 pts in his rookie year with 43 games with white and pouliot etc. DD proved he can produce, Eller, up to that point hasn't.
I hope Eller continues to improve and become the monster that we all hope he becomes but up to the beginning of this year, DD has simply out performed Eller. That may certainly change this year and we can all hope Eller bursts out even more but historically, that is the situation.

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03-21-2013, 07:16 AM
  #877
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Bold=No. DD wins more faceoffs. Please don't look at a 20 game sample and make conclusions, check last year for example.
As for hysical, I assume physical. So i'm glad Eller is hitting and being physical as opposed to just hitting a lot and not being physical

Eller is obviously the more complete player. Few would deny that, btu he's not clearly better at everything. That's a fallacy. It's not to say DD is the best faceoff man on the team or anything like that but for the sake of discussion I'm pointing out that DD is better at it. I can't argue about the defensive aspects although I do think DD has good vision to set up the zone offensively. Eller also has a good puck protection game so it's not exclusive.
Faceoffs are a crap shoot.

He's 47.7% in faceoffs this year with 457 faceoffs. For the record, the statistical error on those measurements is 2.3% this year, and that is just the 1-sigma error, so 32% of the time he is outside of that range.

Meanwhile, Eller is 49.2% this year, with a 2.8% statistical error.

As such, Eller beats DD by 1.5% +/- 3.6%, i.e. by 0.41 standard deviations. In other words, based on this year;s stats, we're only 66% sure that Eller is superior at faceoffs, which is not much. DD might actually be better in spite of inferior stats, simply due to luck. Moreover, we are about 80% sure that the difference in faceoff ability between the two amounts to less than 5 percentage points.

*******************************

BTW there are no advanced stats in my post. Everything I wrote can be understood by a good CEGEP student.

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03-21-2013, 08:52 AM
  #878
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Originally Posted by pepperMonkey View Post
Why do you cherry pick with the stats so much?
As a rookie, DD got 22pts, Eller 17 pts. 2nd year, Eller gets 28 pts and DD gets 1st line duties. Sure, the PP production could be similar but if you can't understand why DD was good enough for 1st line duties while Eller wasn't, it's quite simple and frankly as much as you may dislike DD, you should clearly be able to see why. Simply put, Eller in rookie year gets 17 pts. 2nd year 28 pts...with 77 and 79 games respectively. You can cherry pick and manipulate the data all you want, DD got 22 pts in his rookie year with 43 games with white and pouliot etc. DD proved he can produce, Eller, up to that point hasn't.
I hope Eller continues to improve and become the monster that we all hope he becomes but up to the beginning of this year, DD has simply out performed Eller. That may certainly change this year and we can all hope Eller bursts out even more but historically, that is the situation.
First, you can't compare two players based only on their offensive production.

I'm not cherry picking, i tried to compare them on the same standard.
Even if it.s not really possible since one has been in the NHL at 20yo and the other one enter the league at 24.

I understand that in his first year, DD outperformed Eller, and that's why he got top 6
duties. But i won't cherry-pick an ything for the next part:

What i don't get, is that right now Eller clearly outperformed DD, and still don't fully get his chance as DD did and the only reason why, is that DD can'T do anything else on the ice!

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03-21-2013, 09:35 AM
  #879
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
BTW there are no advanced stats in my post. Everything I wrote can be understood by a good CEGEP student.
You've made several posts about faceoffs and it's made me look at them in a different light. It's pretty clear that they're a crapshoot but seeing some statistics corroborate that idea is nice.

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03-21-2013, 09:36 AM
  #880
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Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
You've made several posts about faceoffs and it's made me look at them in a different light. It's pretty clear that they're a crapshoot but seeing some statistics corroborate that idea is nice.
The best face-off men are those who cheat and don't get caught.

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03-21-2013, 10:43 AM
  #881
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The best face-off men are those who cheat and don't get caught.
Same thing can be said about CEGEP students.

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03-21-2013, 10:53 AM
  #882
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Faceoffs are a crap shoot.

He's 47.7% in faceoffs this year with 457 faceoffs. For the record, the statistical error on those measurements is 2.3% this year, and that is just the 1-sigma error, so 32% of the time he is outside of that range.

Meanwhile, Eller is 49.2% this year, with a 2.8% statistical error.

As such, Eller beats DD by 1.5% +/- 3.6%, i.e. by 0.41 standard deviations. In other words, based on this year;s stats, we're only 66% sure that Eller is superior at faceoffs, which is not much. DD might actually be better in spite of inferior stats, simply due to luck. Moreover, we are about 80% sure that the difference in faceoff ability between the two amounts to less than 5 percentage points.

*******************************

BTW there are no advanced stats in my post. Everything I wrote can be understood by a good CEGEP student.
The conclusion I get from this is that all of our centers are on the same level when it comes to faceoffs, which is not very good but it's an exaggerated problem.

I wish Talk to Goalposts was here to give his stance on why faceoffs are overrated. Obviously it's better to win then them not because the sooner you get the puck the better, but they are just one form of puck battles, and if you are good at battling for the puck elsewhere, like Eller and Plekanec are, you can get away with losing some faceoff draws.

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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Even as someone who's, let's say, not overly partial to Desharnais, I'd agree that the analysis there was pretty fair and accurate/reflective.
Well, the overall conclusion wasn't exactly flattering, especially if you compare it to their Plekanec review posted earlier. And it'll probably look even worse when they go over Pacioretty's numbers.


Last edited by Et le But: 03-21-2013 at 11:03 AM.
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03-21-2013, 12:11 PM
  #883
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Well, the overall conclusion wasn't exactly flattering, especially if you compare it to their Plekanec review posted earlier. And it'll probably look even worse when they go over Pacioretty's numbers.
I'm mainly referring to the points about his salary being more or less in line with what he provides the team, and him being good at what he's good at (or, rather, that there IS a way to use him productively to the benefit of the team). I obviously agree with the "short-comings" (pun intended) that are exposed as well, though.

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03-21-2013, 05:46 PM
  #884
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Faceoffs are a crap shoot.

He's 47.7% in faceoffs this year with 457 faceoffs. For the record, the statistical error on those measurements is 2.3% this year, and that is just the 1-sigma error, so 32% of the time he is outside of that range.

Meanwhile, Eller is 49.2% this year, with a 2.8% statistical error.

As such, Eller beats DD by 1.5% +/- 3.6%, i.e. by 0.41 standard deviations. In other words, based on this year;s stats, we're only 66% sure that Eller is superior at faceoffs, which is not much. DD might actually be better in spite of inferior stats, simply due to luck. Moreover, we are about 80% sure that the difference in faceoff ability between the two amounts to less than 5 percentage points.

*******************************

BTW there are no advanced stats in my post. Everything I wrote can be understood by a good CEGEP student.
This year is very limited. I'd rather take more than 1 single year.

Besides, I'm content with Et Le But's response:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
The conclusion I get from this is that all of our centers are on the same level when it comes to faceoffs, which is not very good but it's an exaggerated problem.

I wish Talk to Goalposts was here to give his stance on why faceoffs are overrated. Obviously it's better to win then them not because the sooner you get the puck the better, but they are just one form of puck battles, and if you are good at battling for the puck elsewhere, like Eller and Plekanec are, you can get away with losing some faceoff draws.

Back to DA:

What I will bring up for sake of discussion is that people often bring up Desharnais offensive zone starts. Fair argument absolutely. I just have an issue with advanced stats or stats in general. I know they can be biased. For instance, on topic of faceoffs. Is a team more likely to put a better faceoff man in the defensive zone or in neutral zone? It's fairly obvious. One might then suggest Desharnais faces better faceoff competition. It would not be outside the realm of logic. Still, it's really not an issue in my mind. I'm just trying to show there's 2 sides to a coin. I don't think Eller>DD in faceoffs or vice versa. Thing is, someone claimed Eller was and I responded that usually DD won more and even then he's been under 50%.

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Old
03-21-2013, 06:48 PM
  #885
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
I'm mainly referring to the points about his salary being more or less in line with what he provides the team, and him being good at what he's good at (or, rather, that there IS a way to use him productively to the benefit of the team). I obviously agree with the "short-comings" (pun intended) that are exposed as well, though.
Do not think he is a 3.5 million dollar man, watching hin out there he looks to be going through the motions, always behind the play, he looked better before signing the contract. Would of preferred 3 years at 2.5 million dollars a year, hope I am wong but that is a lot of money compared to what Plekanec brings for 5 million.

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03-21-2013, 06:50 PM
  #886
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Do not think he is a 3.5 million dollar man, watching hin out there he looks to be going through the motions, always behind the play, he looked better before signing the contract. Would of preferred 3 years at 2.5 million dollars a year, hope I am wong but that is a lot of money compared to what Plekanec brings for 5 million.
I'm between both of those numbers, personally, which makes "more or less" - at least where I'm coming from (I would have liked shorter term as well, honestly, as Desharnais seems difficult to pencil into a permanent "ideal" spot on a year to year basis, let alone as part of a "4 year plan"). $500K difference in a guy your coach is willing to give some semblance of top 6 minutes really isn't that much, as others have stated, in various ways, elsewhere.

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03-21-2013, 07:46 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
This year is very limited. I'd rather take more than 1 single year.

Besides, I'm content with Et Le But's response:




Back to DA:

What I will bring up for sake of discussion is that people often bring up Desharnais offensive zone starts. Fair argument absolutely. I just have an issue with advanced stats or stats in general. I know they can be biased. For instance, on topic of faceoffs. Is a team more likely to put a better faceoff man in the defensive zone or in neutral zone? It's fairly obvious. One might then suggest Desharnais faces better faceoff competition. It would not be outside the realm of logic. Still, it's really not an issue in my mind. I'm just trying to show there's 2 sides to a coin. I don't think Eller>DD in faceoffs or vice versa. Thing is, someone claimed Eller was and I responded that usually DD won more and even then he's been under 50%.
There are good arguments for or against Desharnais, right now faceoffs are neither imo.

Even if DD is 2% better or inferior, which there is no reason to believe, the effect will already be accounted for by all his other stats.

For example, Crosby is at 55% in the circle, and produces 1.7 ppg. Those are not independent stats, one of them contributes to the other. I am therefore not sure what knowledge is gained by having FO as an additional stat to comment on.

Further, i think almost every player in the NHL with very few exceptions is between 48% and 52%, so that should not very the deciding factor. In the case where two players have equal faceoffs ability, most cases, the ranking on the depth chart should be based on skills where they differ.

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03-21-2013, 11:33 PM
  #888
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There are good arguments for or against Desharnais, right now faceoffs are neither imo.

Even if DD is 2% better or inferior, which there is no reason to believe, the effect will already be accounted for by all his other stats.

For example, Crosby is at 55% in the circle, and produces 1.7 ppg. Those are not independent stats, one of them contributes to the other. I am therefore not sure what knowledge is gained by having FO as an additional stat to comment on.

Further, i think almost every player in the NHL with very few exceptions is between 48% and 52%, so that should not very the deciding factor. In the case where two players have equal faceoffs ability, most cases, the ranking on the depth chart should be based on skills where they differ.
They just showed the top 10 faceoff leaders graphic during the Coyotes/Canucks game, and I believe not a single guy on the list (all regulars, led by Patrice Bergeron at 62.1% after 600 draws) was under 55%. In fact, of the 29 centres who have already taken more than 500 draws this season (Zack Smith is #30 with 488 draws), only half (well, 14) of them are under 52%. It's a totally legit stat to focus on for a centre, and I believe teams track it broken down by offensive/neutral/defensive zone on top of NHL's home/away breakdown for even further good reason.

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03-21-2013, 11:38 PM
  #889
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loved his assist tonight. 'vintage' DD.

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Old
03-22-2013, 12:14 AM
  #890
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
They just showed the top 10 faceoff leaders graphic during the Coyotes/Canucks game, and I believe not a single guy on the list (all regulars, led by Patrice Bergeron at 62.1% after 600 draws) was under 55%. In fact, of the 29 centres who have already taken more than 500 draws this season (Zack Smith is #30 with 488 draws), only half (well, 14) of them are under 52%. It's a totally legit stat to focus on for a centre, and I believe teams track it broken down by offensive/neutral/defensive zone on top of NHL's home/away breakdown for even further good reason.
At 500 faceoffs, 1 center in 6 will exceed his natural performance by 2.2%, and 1 in 40 by 4.5%.

Break it down into zones and your statistical noise goes up by ~1.7, because the sample drops by ~3 for each zone. Home and away means another 42% increase in noise.

I am not sayibgvthat there are no good faceoffs guys, i am saying that the differences are small, and among Habs centers, negligible.

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03-22-2013, 12:23 AM
  #891
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
At 500 faceoffs, 1 center in 6 will exceed his natural performance by 2.2%, and 1 in 40 by 4.5%.

Break it down into zones and your statistical noise goes up by ~1.7, because the sample drops by ~3 for each zone. Home and away means another 42% increase in noise.

I am not sayibgvthat there are no good faceoffs guys, i am saying that the differences are small, and among Habs centers, negligible.
Statistically? Yes. In real life, to those watching the games? No. There is a vast difference between Plekanec's 50.1% and Desharnais' 48.2%. It's almost a chasmic divide in talent/ability from visual inspection that has only manifest itself by 1.9% statistically because of who they have faced for their respective faceoffs, on top of the where and when factors. And the same is true of everyone else at the top of the faceoff leader board statistics, and why their narrow divide between them and the guys on the page 2 is still relevant with context.

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03-22-2013, 12:27 AM
  #892
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Statistically? Yes. In real life, to those watching the games? No. There is a vast difference between Plekanec's 50.1% and Desharnais' 48.2%. It's almost a chasmic divide in talent/ability from visual inspection that has only manifest itself by 1.9% statistically because of who they have faced for their respective faceoffs, on top of the where and when factors. And the same is true of everyone else at the top of the faceoff leader board statistics, and why their narrow divide between them and the guys on the page 2 is still relevant with context.
It really isn't though. If DD gets so many offensive zone starts you'd have good faceoff guys defending other team's zone. Then again Plekanec faces top competition and is that premium defensive guy in dying seconds. At end of the day though, neither is particularly awesome at it. I think the divide is negligible.

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03-22-2013, 12:43 AM
  #893
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Statistically? Yes. In real life, to those watching the games? No. There is a vast difference between Plekanec's 50.1% and Desharnais' 48.2%. It's almost a chasmic divide in talent/ability from visual inspection that has only manifest itself by 1.9% statistically because of who they have faced for their respective faceoffs, on top of the where and when factors. And the same is true of everyone else at the top of the faceoff leader board statistics, and why their narrow divide between them and the guys on the page 2 is still relevant with context.
The 1.9% "chasmic divide" is smaller than the statistical noise.

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03-22-2013, 01:45 AM
  #894
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looking forward to this thread remaining open for 4 more years, especially after each bad game

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03-22-2013, 02:54 AM
  #895
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It really isn't though. If DD gets so many offensive zone starts you'd have good faceoff guys defending other team's zone. Then again Plekanec faces top competition and is that premium defensive guy in dying seconds. At end of the day though, neither is particularly awesome at it. I think the divide is negligible.
Sure, if top faceoff guys happened to be on the lines that get matched up against DD for those faceoffs. Which I'm going to assume doesn't happen that often in the overall grand scheme of things. Certainly a coach with last change wouldn't sub in a better faceoff guy in the defensive zone because he sees DD out there, for example, and looking at the guys among the faceoff leaders, how many of them end up squaring off with DD instead of Pleks?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The 1.9% "chasmic divide" is smaller than the statistical noise.
And what you're saying is... even watching them both take draws game after game, year after year, your conclusion from observation is that the small amount of "statistical noise" is representative of their respective talents/abilities in the faceoff circle?

Based on having watched DD and Pleks take faceoffs for a long time now, I'd expect DD to have closer to 45% in Plek's shoes, and Pleks to have closer to 55% in DD's shoes. I see much more than the 1.9% to which the spreadsheet fan is limited.


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03-22-2013, 04:51 AM
  #896
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It really isn't though. If DD gets so many offensive zone starts you'd have good faceoff guys defending other team's zone. Then again Plekanec faces top competition and is that premium defensive guy in dying seconds. At end of the day though, neither is particularly awesome at it. I think the divide is negligible.
Speaking of face-offs, I was inspired to look at the actual stats on NHL.com and this one looked pretty interesting.

PP FO W/L

Plekanec: 32/41 43,8%
Desharnais: 55/43 56,1%

That IS a massive difference and I'll bet it's a big part of the reason why DD still gets a lot of PP time.

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03-22-2013, 05:04 AM
  #897
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Plekanec's FO% has been on the plus side of 50 once in his career, let's not toot his horn now.

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03-22-2013, 06:38 AM
  #898
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Originally Posted by Not The One View Post
Speaking of face-offs, I was inspired to look at the actual stats on NHL.com and this one looked pretty interesting.

PP FO W/L

Plekanec: 32/41 43,8%
Desharnais: 55/43 56,1%

That IS a massive difference and I'll bet it's a big part of the reason why DD still gets a lot of PP time.
That's not a massive difference at all.

The sample sizes are 73 and 98. Why don't you look up the scoring race 10 games into the season, every second year someone is on track to break Gretzky's 92 goal record.

For the record, the statistical error on faceoff performance is approximately:

sqrt(0.25/n), where n is the number of faceoffs.

So for Plekanec, it is (43.8 +/- 5.9)% in the playoffs, with only 68% certainty. "Coincidentally" enough, the 49% value that we know to be Plekanec's true performance after a decade in the league is within the range.

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03-22-2013, 06:43 AM
  #899
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Sure, if top faceoff guys happened to be on the lines that get matched up against DD for those faceoffs. Which I'm going to assume doesn't happen that often in the overall grand scheme of things. Certainly a coach with last change wouldn't sub in a better faceoff guy in the defensive zone because he sees DD out there, for example, and looking at the guys among the faceoff leaders, how many of them end up squaring off with DD instead of Pleks?

And what you're saying is... even watching them both take draws game after game, year after year, your conclusion from observation is that the small amount of "statistical noise" is representative of their respective talents/abilities in the faceoff circle?

Based on having watched DD and Pleks take faceoffs for a long time now, I'd expect DD to have closer to 45% in Plek's shoes, and Pleks to have closer to 55% in DD's shoes. I see much more than the 1.9% to which the spreadsheet fan is limited.
There's no strong evidence that Plekanec is better at faceoffs than Desharnais or vice versa. I'm not interested in hearsay and gut-feelings: gut-feelings is what causes 29 GMs in the league to take a pass on Semin because he's Russian, et cetera.

But for the sake of argument, let's assume Plekanec is a 50% faceoff guy, and Desharnais is a 48% faceoff guy, even though we have little reason to believe so. What does that mean? It means that out of 100 trials:

- Both Desharnais and Plekanec will win the faceoff 48 times. We then worry about who's better offensively after the faceoff is won.
- Both Desharnais and Plekanec will lose the faceoff 50 times. We then worry about who's better defensively after the faceoff is lost.
- Plekanec wins and Desharnais loses the faceoff, twice. We then worry about the difference between Plekanec's offense and Desharnais' offense.

Obviously option C, which happens 2% of the time (but maybe less) is bad, and relevant, but the other options based purely on the skill difference between DD and Plekanec, are forty-nine times more frequent, and are thus more important.

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03-22-2013, 06:45 AM
  #900
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Plekanec's FO% has been on the plus side of 50 once in his career, let's not toot his horn now.
Twice from what I can see.

Plus he also hit 50% one year, and is generally at 49.5+ for the rest of those years with only a year or two under that.

He's been pretty good, considering our centers have been extremely weak on faceoffs.

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