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Playoff Chances Watch / Predictions / Hopes / Dreams Thread

View Poll Results: Which way do you hope/think/believe/want the Sabres will/to go
Tank 19 47.50%
Playoffs 15 37.50%
Irrelevancy 6 15.00%
Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-18-2013, 05:03 PM
  #26
slip
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Tumbril time in Buffalo:


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Old
03-18-2013, 05:38 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Have My Baby Pierre View Post
Zagrapan was a 13th overall pick..it's not unusual at all for players taken around there to bust.

However, it is a lot more rare for a top 3 player to bust.

Last 10 drafts not counting 2012 since that's too early.

2011 - RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2010 - Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2009 - Tavares, Hedman, Kane
2008 - Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2007 - Kane, JVR, Turris
2006 - Johnson, Staal, Toews
2005 - Crosby, Ryan, Johnson
2004 - Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker
2003 - Fleury, Staal, Horton

People want us to tank so we can get a chance at potential star like many of the players listed above, putting together a winning streak and finishing 9th-11th could get us another Zagrapan though..

Here are the 13th overall players for reference

2011 - Sven Baertschi
2010 - Brandon Gormley
2009 - Zack Kassian
2008 - Colten Teubert
2007 - Lars Eller
2006 - Jiri Tlusty
2005 - Marek Zagrapan
2004 - Drew Stafford
2003 - Dustin Brown

It makes perfect sense for fans to want the Sabres to lose and get a top 3 pick, especially since it's near impossible to build a team through free agency nowadays.
Excellent post - and data.

Stretch your analysis out to #4 and #5 picks and you'll find there are a lot of keepers there as well - based on the talent depth of a particular draft.

The degree of complacency that has settled in on this team amazes me. I know it's a cliche but every one should be playing their hardest just to keep their jobs. Either they've bought into the line that they are safe not matter what effort they put out or they are so bad that it doesn't make any difference.

I'm tired of drafting mid round. Let's get a top 3 (or even 5) pick. But do it HONESTLY!

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Old
03-18-2013, 08:07 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Ron C. View Post
Here is a fun site to watch the odds for both playoffs and draft pick:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...t/Buffalo.html
So our chances based on statistics finishing 29th are 33%. Finishing in the last three is 62%, thats great. And there are still odds to win the lottery and draft first overall. I hope we don't draft a goaltender first ... , and neither a defenceman ... even if it's Jones there.

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Old
03-18-2013, 08:19 PM
  #29
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We don't need no water, let the mother****er burn. Burn, mother****er, burn.
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They said, "It's a fight to the finish." I thought, that's a good place to end.
Offer up the season to the hockey gods, draft MacKinnon, and regroup.

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Old
03-18-2013, 08:22 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
They are still a ways off from being officially mathematically eliminated, but a few losses will take their chances from like 0.5% to 0.00001%, as they'll get to a point where they'd need to win out and need another team to basically win none of their remaining games.
So you're saying there's a chance...

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Old
03-18-2013, 09:31 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
They are still a ways off from being officially mathematically eliminated, but a few losses will take their chances from like 0.5% to 0.00001%, as they'll get to a point where they'd need to win out and need another team to basically win none of their remaining games.
They really are only 3 losses away from that very scenario.

In 3 losses, they will be in a position where at least one of the teams between them and 7th will be UNABLE to lose enough points, due to all the in-conference/in-division play, to clear enough room for the Sabres to overcome them, even if the Sabres won their last 16.

They may very well be mathematically done (as in .00000%) by this time next week.

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Old
03-22-2013, 01:41 AM
  #32
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Official Tank/Playoffs/Rush to 9th Thread

I know we talk about it in a couple threads, but here is where we can all discuss what train we're hitching a ride on, be it the Tank, Playoff, or Irrelevancy (aka 9th/10th) train.

I, myself, am on the tank train. Yes, some (The playoff crowd) may argue that we are only 4 points out of 8th, but I think we all need to be honest and realize this is not our year. I am hoping that we finish with a top 3 pick, and I am alright with either Jones, MacKinnon, or Drouin. I would also like to see some significant changes and I don't believe that happens if we are, say only 3 or 4 points out at deadline time, or if we finish 9th/10th again. I'm not apart of the "TRADE EVERYONE!!1!1!!" crowd, I would like to see at least one somewhat core-changing move however. Stafford I see is the most likely player to be dealt. He does have value and I'm sure he would most likely blossom on a new team. Could even become a 20-20 guy like we all think he can, I just don't see him really fitting the team anymore, and to me, it looks like he's checked out.

-----------------
Next Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 28 points with 8 Regulation/OT wins. 8th Place Carolina has 32 points with 15 Regulation/OT wins. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs. Either way, I see the next 5 games as the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 5 games are:

3/23: @Montreal (2-45ts)
3/26: @Tampa Bay (12-27pts)
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (13-27pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)

If we win 3 or 4 of those games, I believe Darcy will not be in a very selling move at the deadline because we may be within that 2-4 point range of 8th and he may even feel like buying a rental playing, which would be the absolute worst thing that could happen to the team and its future at the moment.
If however we only win 2 or less of those games, we could very well be on our way to some major changes and happenings at the deadline.

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation

Tank
If we were to go at a slightly less than .500 point percentage, around .400 pace, say 6-10-1, SCS has us at a 85% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 11, preferably 12 of their final 17 games. 52 points would mean a 55.9% chance, 53 a 82.1% chance, and 54 a 94.1% chance. Winning 12 of the 17 games would mean .700 hockey for the rest of the year.

Irrelevancy (9th/10th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 49-51 points, there is a greater than 50% chance that we would finish either 9th or 10th. 49-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 10 wins in our final 17.

-------------------

Of our final 17 games, we play:
  • 10 Home Games
  • 7 Away Games
  • 9 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 14 games and have gone 6-5-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 17 games and the Sabres were to go 7-7-3, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 45 points and most likely finish 13th in the Conference (45% Chance, or a 66% chance to finish 13th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/6 range for 13th place.

Math
That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .353 and a point percentage of .471. Of the remaining 7 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-4-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-8-3, or 43 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 35% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 51% chance of finishing 14th. This record predicition is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .076 (from .353 to .429), or roughly only 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 82%, from .353 to .643 under Rolston.***
----------
My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think/hope (remember, I'm on the tank train) we go 1-3-1 next week, losing to Montreal, Boston, Washington, and Tampa in a SO, and beat Florida. I think we finish the final 17 games 6-9-2, so 73% chance at a bottom 3 finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick. Of note however, the difference between 42 and 44 points is a 50% drop from 14th and 50% increase to 13th. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 42 or less points: 70% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 43-51 points: No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


Last edited by sjci: 03-22-2013 at 02:14 AM.
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Old
03-22-2013, 01:51 AM
  #33
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Don't finish ninth or tenth, please.


Edit: yeah, ignore me. Good post, unnecessary comments by me


Last edited by jBuds: 03-22-2013 at 02:34 AM.
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Old
03-22-2013, 02:39 AM
  #34
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What will also be funny is if someone, or some people (Regier specifically) after the year is done, try to find "the bright side" and say "look how many one Goal games we lost! We could have been much better record wise if some of those one goal games went the other way."

Any mezzamuerte who watched us with regularity knows that 93.775repeating percent of those one goal games weren't ever close, and could've just as easily been two to four goal losses.

Like I said in the GBU: if we played all season how we did against the leafs, and the record was the same, I'd likely be doing minimal to no complaining. Said it all along. Show me a passionate team who looks like they give a **** and I'm a happy camper.


Last edited by jBuds: 03-22-2013 at 03:04 AM.
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Old
03-22-2013, 02:51 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
What will also be funny is if someone, or some people (Regier specifically) after the year is done, try to find "the bright side" and say "look how many one Goal games we lost! We could have been much better record wise if some of those one goal games went the other way."

Any mezzamuerte who watched us with reality knows that 93.775repeating percent of those one goal games weren't ever close, and could've just as easily been two to four goal losses.

Like I said in the GBU: if we played all season how we did against the leafs, and the record was the same, I'd likely be doing minimal to no complaining. Said it all along. Show me a passionate team who looks like they give a **** and I'm a happy camper.
Definitely agree with everything you said. I'd be happy with this effort and similar record. I think the main problem a lot of us had was that we came into this season with high expectations again, and for the second year in a row, it's been a major disappointment.

Also, sorry if this is a repeat thread. I just didn't see one on the first page and figured I'd put this up. Plus, I liked running all the numbers and now everyone I hope has a better picture of what we're looking at for the rest of the year.

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Old
03-22-2013, 02:54 AM
  #36
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I *want* the Sabres to make the playoffs and win a series.
I *expect* they'll finish around 11th in the Conference.
I *hope* that their team comes together in the next few years and can content for the cup.
I *know* that drafting top 5 might make that much easier.

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03-22-2013, 03:07 AM
  #37
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Definitely agree with everything you said. I'd be happy with this effort and similar record. I think the main problem a lot of us had was that we came into this season with high expectations again, and for the second year in a row, it's been a major disappointment.

Also, sorry if this is a repeat thread. I just didn't see one on the first page and figured I'd put this up. Plus, I liked running all the numbers and now everyone I hope has a better picture of what we're looking at for the rest of the year.
No worries, my man. I am cranky tonight; nothing wrong with additional discussion and an attempt to quantify just how many people want us to continue to lose for draft position or "other"

The thing is, some of us had realistic/fair/cautious/tempered expectations that I was alluding to: rebuilding year, but a chance for guys like Ennis, Stafford, Hodgson, Foligno, Gerbe, Myers, and Sekera to step up and solidify major roles, or a place on the team. Individual results have been mixed, and collective results abysmal.

This deadline and subsequent offseason are huge in terms of what the franchise will look like in the next five+ years.

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Old
03-22-2013, 05:07 AM
  #38
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The race for 8th in underway! If the team can keep playing with this much energy and Miller continues to build his confidence, 8th or better will happen. I think they would benefit greatly by trading Stafford and Leopold, even if its just to shake up the locker room a little.

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Old
03-22-2013, 06:17 AM
  #39
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They are heading towards irrelevancy of course. It's the Sabres way!

The thing about the top pick in the draft (or the top 5), they give it to the worst team in the league (or the worst teams). That's not the Sabres. They are not going to make the playoffs either, so they are on the road to 11th. I suppose they could trade major pieces, but you're not going to get full value for those guys before the deadline and you'll probably get better deals during the summer for guys with a year still left on their contracts. Plus would replacing a lot of those guys with youth actually make their results on the ice appreciably worse this year?

So, I'm going to just enjoy every game as it comes. #yolo

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03-22-2013, 07:13 AM
  #40
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I'm scared of where we are at right now. Really looking like a 10th/11th place finish.

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03-22-2013, 07:23 AM
  #41
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The race for 8th in underway! If the team can keep playing with this much energy and Miller continues to build his confidence, 8th or better will happen. I think they would benefit greatly by trading Stafford and Leopold, even if its just to shake up the locker room a little.
Miller building confidence? The guy has been terrible in March. More like destroying it.

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03-22-2013, 08:26 AM
  #42
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Last night's win dropped us from 2nd pick to 7th pick. Think about the difference in prospects that constitutes: Mackinnon vs. Monahan; Drouin vs. Nichuskin; Jones vs. Zadarov/Nurse; etc. There is obvious merit to winning games - I don't deny that. In the current context, however, there are also very real and tangible downsides (see above) that could affect the trajectory of this franchise for years to come.

There's obviously nothing I or any of us fans can do about it - if they're going to win, they're going to win. Are we realistically one of the three worst teams in the league? Probably not. I think the same could be said of Montreal last year, but they picked third and they drafted a stud player. 3rd overall pick this year, IMO, nets you an even better player.

Another thing that frustrates (and potentially worries) me is that I don't see us being this bad again for awhile. Given that, the truncated season, and the ELITE talent at the top of this draft, this is the year to tank, and I feel like were about to **** it up. /rant

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03-23-2013, 08:45 PM
  #43
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This thread is now relevant

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03-25-2013, 03:36 AM
  #44
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Rangers and Flyers both lost ! We can creep up this week!

Maybe Darcy should start shopping our 1st round pick for a 2 way centre.

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03-25-2013, 04:10 AM
  #45
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Rangers and Flyers both lost ! We can creep up this week!

Maybe Darcy should start shopping our 1st round pick for a 2 way centre.
If that center is Bergeron or Couturier, sure

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03-25-2013, 05:25 AM
  #46
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I want the Sabres to make the playoffs, while I don't mind if they tank it too much it'll make it a miserable season to watch.

Honestly I'm not sure if it's easier to make the playoffs or tank. Florida, Colorado and possibly Tampa are locks for 1, 2, 3. I'd imagine Calgary to finish bottom 5 somewhere as well. Combine that with the Sabres reputation for late season streaks then I'm not sure what will happen.

Look at recently, 3 games and we're 3 points of 8th. It's a mad season. We won't be mathematically out of it till the last few games and Regier won't just man up and sell, that's not his style (plus I'd bet his job is on the line, his going to want us to make the playoffs).

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03-25-2013, 06:54 AM
  #47
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As of right now, Sports Club Stats has 52 pts as the number where it becomes more likely (55.7%) than not (51 pts = 31.8%) that a team makes the playoffs. Assuming an uptick in loser points, let's just assume that 53 is the magic number. Because we have so few regulation wins, let's assume that Buffalo needs 54 pts just to put itself in a good position. The Sabres would have to go 12-4-0 to have a solid chance at making the playoffs.

If they want any chance at a playoff spot, they have to get past their putrid record vs the Southeast and they have to win the next three games. Tampa is reeling and their players know they just got their coach fired, Florida is horrendous this season, and you have to beat Washington at home.

If they can get to 36 pts in 35 games, they're in business, but it'd still be a tough road from there.

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03-25-2013, 07:12 AM
  #48
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As of right now, Sports Club Stats has 52 pts as the number where it becomes more likely (55.7%) than not (51 pts = 31.8%) that a team makes the playoffs. Assuming an uptick in loser points, let's just assume that 53 is the magic number. Because we have so few regulation wins, let's assume that Buffalo needs 54 pts just to put itself in a good position. The Sabres would have to go 12-4-0 to have a solid chance at making the playoffs.

If they want any chance at a playoff spot, they have to get past their putrid record vs the Southeast and they have to win the next three games. Tampa is reeling and their players know they just got their coach fired, Florida is horrendous this season, and you have to beat Washington at home.

If they can get to 36 pts in 35 games, they're in business, but it'd still be a tough road from there.
To the first bolded point: We simply aren't that good...Miller's not gonna stand on his head every night like he did against montreal.
To the second bolded point: 3 games against teams that are as bad/worse than us? 3 straight losses coming up!

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03-25-2013, 07:18 AM
  #49
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To the first bolded point: We simply aren't that good...Miller's not gonna stand on his head every night like he did against montreal.
Agreed. I think we'll finish with a fitting 48 pts in 48 games. Almost the definition of mediocre (actually, it's worse considering .500 in the NHL is really around .540 or so because of loser points).


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To the second bolded point: 3 games against teams that are as bad/worse than us? 3 straight losses coming up!
Possibly. Just to troll us, all three will probably be in OT/SO so that we can get the loser point.

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03-25-2013, 07:18 AM
  #50
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I would say Colorado is a lock to finish top 5 with this remaining schedule...

WED MAR 27, 2013 AVALANCHE FLAMES
8:00 PM TSN, ALT
THU MAR 28, 2013 AVALANCHE CANUCKS
8:00 PM ALT
SAT MAR 30, 2013 PREDATORS AVALANCHE
1:00 PM ALT TICKETS
APRIL 2013
DATE VISITOR HOME TIME (MT) TV NETWORK/RESULTS
TICKETS
MON APR 1, 2013 AVALANCHE RED WINGS
5:30 PM TSN2, NBCSN
TUE APR 2, 2013 AVALANCHE PREDATORS
6:00 PM ALT
FRI APR 5, 2013 RED WINGS AVALANCHE
7:00 PM ALT TICKETS
SAT APR 6, 2013 AVALANCHE COYOTES
7:00 PM ALT
MON APR 8, 2013 FLAMES AVALANCHE
7:00 PM ALT TICKETS
WED APR 10, 2013 AVALANCHE DUCKS
8:00 PM ALT2
THU APR 11, 2013 AVALANCHE KINGS
8:30 PM NHLN-CA, NHLN-US, ALT
SAT APR 13, 2013 CANUCKS AVALANCHE
1:00 PM NHLN-US, ALT TICKETS
MON APR 15, 2013 BLUE JACKETS AVALANCHE
7:00 PM ALT TICKETS
FRI APR 19, 2013 OILERS AVALANCHE
7:00 PM RDS2, ALT TICKETS
SUN APR 21, 2013 BLUES AVALANCHE
6:00 PM NBC, NBCSN TICKETS
TUE APR 23, 2013 AVALANCHE BLUES
6:00 PM ALT
FRI APR 26, 2013 AVALANCHE COYOTES
8:00 PM ALT
SAT APR 27, 2013 WILD AVALANCHE
5:30 PM ALT TICKETS

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