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The Flyers at Even Strength and Giroux

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Old
03-23-2013, 12:56 AM
  #26
Clown Baby
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Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
Wow. A bad start followed by 20 points in 17 games and people are starting to suggest we let him go for 4 late firsts.

One guy is even saying those 4 late 1sts could help us land a player better than Giroux. Because those 4 1sts + a ridiculously unfavorable contract structure clearly got us Shea Weber .

This fan base...

I always knew it was possible certain members of our fan base would turn on Giroux, I just thought it'd take a little more than 30 games of "only" .9 PPG performance.
And this is the melodrama that comes with not understanding how a salary cap works.

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03-24-2013, 09:48 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
And this is the melodrama that comes with not understanding how a salary cap works.
I work on Wall Street. I think I have a better understanding of how a salary cap works / how the market respond to that salary cap than you could ever even dream of.

The problem with your line of thinking is that by trading Giroux for draft picks (and late 1sts at that) you just keep pushing back the future. You give up a forward in his prime for future players, the first of which likely won't be a significant contributor until 2 (or more) years down the line. Then by that time, Voracek is up for a new contract and now you've got to trade him because he's not worth 8M either. And don't forget about Brayden Schenn, you've got to trade him too!

It's just absolutely silly to consider trading your captain and franchise player for 4 1sts because of the new salary cap structure. Every team has to deal with this new cap and every team will be forced to sign their star players to these new bloated deals. If Getzlaf and Perry are worth over 8M per year, than Giroux is also worth ~8M. Ideally you'd like to pay a little less than that, get a hometown discount, but if not you don't just let him go for four 1sts.

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03-24-2013, 10:38 AM
  #28
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By all means, let's crap all over yet another proven player and taking draft picks, since draft picks are proven winners. Good grief.

I hope G has a bounce back year next year. I'm not sure he can handle the pressure of being the "best player in the world" as Lavi called him, as well as the captain in such short order. Hopefully he gets away from everything this summer and is raring to go once September rolls around. He also needs better support around him and that's on management.

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03-24-2013, 11:56 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
I work on Wall Street. I think I have a better understanding of how a salary cap works / how the market respond to that salary cap than you could ever even dream of.
I'd wager that you aren't half as good at your trade as you think you are. Otherwise, you wouldn't need to flex your reputation on an internet chat board pertaining to hockey.

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The problem with your line of thinking is that by trading Giroux for draft picks (and late 1sts at that) you just keep pushing back the future. You give up a forward in his prime for future players, the first of which likely won't be a significant contributor until 2 (or more) years down the line. Then by that time, Voracek is up for a new contract and now you've got to trade him because he's not worth 8M either. And don't forget about Brayden Schenn, you've got to trade him too!
*groans*

You do in fact push back your window, but that's what needs to happen right now. Almost every team that's succeeded in their hunt for the Stanley Cup (or even come close) has done so with a minimum of two solid two-way defensemen. The Flyers have a 38-year old Timonen... and nothing else.

The Los Angeles Kings had Doughty, and Voynov. The Boston Bruins had Chara, and Seidenberg. The Chicago Blackhawks had Keith, and Seabrook. Our Philadelphia Flyers had Pronger, and Timonen. The Pittsburgh Penguins had Gonchar, and Letang. The Detroit Red Wings had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall. The Anaheim Ducks had Pronger, and Niedermayer.

Guys like Gus, Ghost, and Manning could be the puck-moving two-way defensemen the Flyers need in order to be successful, but they still need years of conditioning before they will be ready to support the kind of workload that will be expected of them. And that's assuming they even make it that far. Other than that, we're probably looking at the same group that's been getting torched this season, with a little less Kimmo.

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It's just absolutely silly to consider trading your captain and franchise player for 4 1sts because of the new salary cap structure. Every team has to deal with this new cap and every team will be forced to sign their star players to these new bloated deals. If Getzlaf and Perry are worth over 8M per year, than Giroux is also worth ~8M. Ideally you'd like to pay a little less than that, get a hometown discount, but if not you don't just let him go for four 1sts.
He's not giving the Flyers a hometown discount after Holmgren just sent Carter, Richards, and JVR packing literally days before their limiting clauses kicked in. So, you can get that silly fan-boy idea out of your head right now.

And just because teams are willing to commit 12.5% of their salary cap for a player doesn't mean it's the right way to build a team. The Penguins, and Red Wings got by because they were spending that money on Hall of Fame talent. They also had the defensemen to support the team. Giroux's not that in that class, or that situation.

Teams like Atlanta (Kovalchuk), Columbus (Nash), Buffalo (Vanek), Colorado (Stastny), Minnesota (Parise, Suter, and Koivu), and Anaheim as of today (Perry and Getzlaf), they spent that much because they needed to convince the fans to buy/renew their season tickets. Philadelphia's not in that situation, nor do I really want to be given how much success they haven't had. If we had a Weber, a Keith/Seabrook, or Doughty, I'd say go for it. But, we don't.

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03-24-2013, 02:16 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
I'd wager that you aren't half as good at your trade as you think you are. Otherwise, you wouldn't need to flex your reputation on an internet chat board pertaining to hockey.
You insulted me, I responded. It wasn't me bragging or flexing my rep, it was in response to you telling me I don't understand a salary cap. This is my trade, I understand markets and things related to markets (salary caps) quite well. My undergraduate thesis was actually related to salary caps in sports

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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
*groans*

You do in fact push back your window, but that's what needs to happen right now. Almost every team that's succeeded in their hunt for the Stanley Cup (or even come close) has done so with a minimum of two solid two-way defensemen. The Flyers have a 38-year old Timonen... and nothing else.

The Los Angeles Kings had Doughty, and Voynov. The Boston Bruins had Chara, and Seidenberg. The Chicago Blackhawks had Keith, and Seabrook. Our Philadelphia Flyers had Pronger, and Timonen. The Pittsburgh Penguins had Gonchar, and Letang. The Detroit Red Wings had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall. The Anaheim Ducks had Pronger, and Niedermayer.
So the Flyers need to push back their window because your favorite teams in the past all fit some mold that you want the Flyers to fit?

Do you realize how incredibly dumb that is?

You're also really stretching a ton of those comparisons. Seidenberg is far from the offensive dynamo you'd have us believe he is. He's comparable to a healthy Meszaros or Matt Carle in terms of how many points he puts up. The year the Pens won, Letang had yet to become a superstar or anything close really. Voynov had 3 points in 20 playoff games for the Kings. Are you really going to tell me he made some gigantic impact?

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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
Guys like Gus, Ghost, and Manning could be the puck-moving two-way defensemen the Flyers need in order to be successful, but they still need years of conditioning before they will be ready to support the kind of workload that will be expected of them. And that's assuming they even make it that far. Other than that, we're probably looking at the same group that's been getting torched this season, with a little less Kimmo.
Really?!?

I thought the previous quote was nuts, but this takes the cake... the notion that Gus and Ghost are future superstars?!? LOL. We're pushing back our contending timeframe because Ghost and Gus might become something somewhere down the line? Really?

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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
He's not giving the Flyers a hometown discount after Holmgren just sent Carter, Richards, and JVR packing literally days before their limiting clauses kicked in. So, you can get that silly fan-boy idea out of your head right now.
That's right, I forgot that you're Giroux's agent. Those Carter, Richards, and JVR deals sure seemed to prevent us from locking up Voracek and Simmonds long-term. There's definitely no way Giroux decides to give us a discount .

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Originally Posted by Clown Baby View Post
And just because teams are willing to commit 12.5% of their salary cap for a player doesn't mean it's the right way to build a team. The Penguins, and Red Wings got by because they were spending that money on Hall of Fame talent. They also had the defensemen to support the team. Giroux's not that in that class, or that situation.

Teams like Atlanta (Kovalchuk), Columbus (Nash), Buffalo (Vanek), Colorado (Stastny), Minnesota (Parise, Suter, and Koivu), and Anaheim as of today (Perry and Getzlaf), they spent that much because they needed to convince the fans to buy/renew their season tickets. Philadelphia's not in that situation, nor do I really want to be given how much success they haven't had. If we had a Weber, a Keith/Seabrook, or Doughty, I'd say go for it. But, we don't.
That 12.5% figure is incredibly misleading. The cap will be around 69M for 2014-2015 if revenue growth continues as it was pre-lockout (some estimates say it has even sped up a bit). If the cap is 69M, he's 11.5% of your cap for the first year and then that figure drops and drops and drops as the cap goes up. What's important here is that Giroux occupying 11.5% or 12% or 12.5% of our cap in 2014-2015 doesn't restrict us from doing anything. And by the time we'll need to give big deals to other guys, the cap will have grown yet again.

We haven't had a Claude Giroux type of talent on this team since Eric Lindros (not saying he's comparable to Lindros, just saying he's better than Carter, Richards, etc.). They are incredibly hard to find. Just because you don't have all the pieces you want to become a contender doesn't mean you let other elite pieces walk away for a pittance (4 late 1st round picks).

And as far as your elite defenseman obsession goes, our "need" for those guys could very well be satisfied this offseason via the draft. We could have Jones, we could have Nurse, we could flip a player for Rundblad or Gormley, and boom, we've got two 2 way defensemen like you want.
_______________________________

One last question I have for you, and it's an honest one: What is your long term strategy with guys like Voracek? His contract is up in another 3 years. Do you let him go too if you don't have your ideal defensemen? What about Brayden Schenn? And what happens if those 4 late 1sts end up busting?

I just don't see your vision for this team's future.

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03-24-2013, 08:11 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
So the Flyers need to push back their window because your favorite teams in the past all fit some mold that you want the Flyers to fit?

Do you realize how incredibly dumb that is?
Nine of the last fourteen Stanley Cup finalists have made it that far using that exact construct. Eight have gotten by with at least one number one defenseman.

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You're also really stretching a ton of those comparisons. Seidenberg is far from the offensive dynamo you'd have us believe he is. He's comparable to a healthy Meszaros or Matt Carle in terms of how many points he puts up. The year the Pens won, Letang had yet to become a superstar or anything close really. Voynov had 3 points in 20 playoff games for the Kings. Are you really going to tell me he made some gigantic impact?
Seidenberg was and continues to be a competent two-way defenseman for the Boston Bruins. Letang and Voynov filled the same role for their respective clubs, in big game situations. Carle couldn't cut it without Pronger, which he's proving today, and Mesz has had a season and a half of competent play since 2008, none of which has carried over to this season. Nothing about "offensive dynamos." And if you wonder if having multiple two-way defensemen really helps your team... Of the 52 defensemen scoring at a 30 point clip pace this season, 32 would be in the playoffs if they ended today. (61.5%).

[quote]Really?!?

I thought the previous quote was nuts, but this takes the cake... the notion that Gus and Ghost are future superstars?!? LOL. We're pushing back our contending timeframe because Ghost and Gus might become something somewhere down the line? Really?[/quote[

Your reading comprehension sucks donkey balls.

You're pushing back the window because right now our best defenseman is 38 years old, and there's no one in the pipe-line that even looks remotely capable of filling the void left behind when he finally leaves. If you think watching this team is hard to watch now, take some ginseng, and think back to '07.

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That's right, I forgot that you're Giroux's agent. Those Carter, Richards, and JVR deals sure seemed to prevent us from locking up Voracek and Simmonds long-term. There's definitely no way Giroux decides to give us a discount .
$23.85 million through six years for two 40 points seasons, and $17 million through four years for two 50 point seasons and a 40... those are sweet-heart deals to you? They're not Bryzgalov bad, but the agents did Holmgren no favors in accepting those offers.

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That 12.5% figure is incredibly misleading. The cap will be around 69M for 2014-2015 if revenue growth continues as it was pre-lockout (some estimates say it has even sped up a bit). If the cap is 69M, he's 11.5% of your cap for the first year and then that figure drops and drops and drops as the cap goes up. What's important here is that Giroux occupying 11.5% or 12% or 12.5% of our cap in 2014-2015 doesn't restrict us from doing anything. And by the time we'll need to give big deals to other guys, the cap will have grown yet again.
You worked in banking didn't you? Counting on an immediate spike of 5 million dollars, followed by growth upon growth. when you have no idea what the financial landscape of the NHL will look like whatsoever. It's extremely short-sighted, and I'd expect better of management.

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We haven't had a Claude Giroux type of talent on this team since Eric Lindros (not saying he's comparable to Lindros, just saying he's better than Carter, Richards, etc.). They are incredibly hard to find. Just because you don't have all the pieces you want to become a contender doesn't mean you let other elite pieces walk away for a pittance (4 late 1st round picks).
Giroux is more skilled than either Richards or Carter, but he isn't any "better" (whatever that loosely translates to) than they were at their respective peaks for this club. Richards was a tremendous all-around player, the best we've seen since Primeau came to town. And Carter's defensive game was equally impressive, though he had none of the physicality to go with it. (Stastically, he was a better even-strength center than Richards.) Giroux, evident by the existence of this thread, needs to improve defensively for his point totals to have merit. Otherwise, he's just covering for his own lapses in the same way Briere does while on the PP. And honestly, the big games are won at ES, not on special-teams. If your players can't dictate the game at ES, the chances of them winning take a massive **** all over your hopes.

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And as far as your elite defenseman obsession goes, our "need" for those guys could very well be satisfied this offseason via the draft. We could have Jones, we could have Nurse, we could flip a player for Rundblad or Gormley, and boom, we've got two 2 way defensemen like you want.
Jones, like E.Johnson, could turn out to be average in the grand scheme of things. That's assuming we even land him, of course. Gormley, he's in the conversation for potential Kimmo replacemens as much as Gus and Ghost. Rundblad is the one guy I'd like to take a chance on, but it goes back to my original point that this organization, if they want to compete, are going to have to take multiple cracks at finding their defensem(e)n. Four first-round picks would make it doable because they've proven they can draft forwards late.

Quote:
One last question I have for you, and it's an honest one: What is your long term strategy with guys like Voracek? His contract is up in another 3 years. Do you let him go too if you don't have your ideal defensemen? What about Brayden Schenn? And what happens if those 4 late 1sts end up busting? I just don't see your vision for this team's future.
That's three different questions. And each is dependent upon some ludicrous hypothetical that a team will sign Giroux for $8 million per year. If it happens, I take the picks and look forward. If some team doesn't, aggressively pursue a young top-pairing defenseman, or multiple puck-moving defensemen. Independent of that, trade Briere for what you can get, and consider moving Kimmo given his age and our position in the league right now. (One serious injury, and we're ****ed next season with nothing to show for it.) I'd also consider giving Bryz the amnesty treatment, because at no point has shown capable of stringing together 20+ good/great games.

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03-24-2013, 09:37 PM
  #32
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I don't feel like quoting all that, so I'll address a few things:

1. Projecting revenue growth is not extremely short sighted. My projections are extremely conservative, as they are using the same 5% per year revenue growth that the NHL actually uses to set the salary cap each and every year . It's in the cap formula. I didn't just pull projections out of my butt. And the NHL since the last CBA has grown quite more than 5% year over year, so 5% is definitely a conservative estimate.

2. I guess you and I see Giroux differently. I see him as being far more productive and a far better player than Richards and/or Carter.

3. You don't need to take 4 cracks at finding a #1 defenseman. A trade for a defensive prospect and a high draft pick this year followed by another defenseman via the draft next year should be enough. There's no reason we need 4 more late 1sts. Contrary to your beliefs, good 2 way defensemen can also be acquired via free agency... guys like Seidenberg, Voynov, etc... obviously not the truly elite guys, but the second PMD types can.

4. You and I actually agree somewhat on the future... amnestying Bryz and Briere, etc. Beyond that though is where we have the disconnect. If we're freeing up all this money you're talking about, I don't see why we would also need to let Giroux go @ 8M. With Timonen, Bryz, and Briere all gone before Giroux needs his new deal, where's all that money going to go? And if we're truly going into the tank (which is what doing all the moves you're talking about would essentially be), what's the point in trading Giroux when we could trade an older guy like Hartnell? Hartnell would be like 35 before we're contending via your strategy.

That's why I'm saying I just don't see the long-term strategy here. You can't go out in a single year and just spend spend spend to fill all your needs via free agency, so if you let Giroux go, you're going to be without a #1C for a long time. And don't tell me Schenn or Couturier could fill that void, because that's basically the same as me saying that Jones + Rundblad would solve our #1D problem (and you just told me I was wrong there). You can't count on Schenn or Couturier being able to dominate a game offensively any more than I can count on prospects to fill our D needs.

You essentially want to turn this team into the Edmonton Oilers and I just don't see the need at all. Even if the cap doesn't rise one cent, and Claude Giroux gets 9M (high estimate), Brayden Schenn gets 5M (high estimate), and Sean Couturier gets 3M (high estimate), you're talking about a team that will have ~17.5M to spend going into 2014-2015, with the need to fill 2 defensive spots (one top 4 defender, one bottom pairing), perhaps 1 top-9 forward spot, and both goalie positions. And this is without penciling in our 2013 draft pick to the lineup, and if we've a top 5 pick, I don't see any way our pick isn't playing (cheaply) for this team in 2014-2015.

I think you're vastly overreacting to Giroux's cap hit. The fact is, the Flyers signed his last deal specifically so it ended when a lot of $$$ would be coming off the books. They have prepared for this and they can sign him without any adverse effects whatsoever.

There's absolutely no reason to let him go.

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03-24-2013, 09:49 PM
  #33
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Not to interrupt your discussion, but tonight was another night where they couldn't score at even strength.

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03-25-2013, 09:22 AM
  #34
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Letting Giroux go for 4 firsts? I've heard it all now. I'm not worried about his salary at all. Homer needs to do a better job at not giving out crazy contracts. I mean think about it. Hartnell is now playing 4th line at 4+ million I believe. Briere making 6+ million and hasn't produced squat the last 3 years for that pay. Schenn 3 million for nadda, Bryz 5 million for terrible numbers....the list just goes on. I believe a new GM is needed, not letting Giroux walk. That's crazy talk.

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03-25-2013, 09:40 AM
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These are PPG at even strength this year and last: (Improvements are in bold)

Jakub Voracek 0.548 0.487
Matt Read 0.480 0.418
Brayden Schenn 0.400 0.241
Claude Giroux 0.387 0.688
Tye McGinn 0.313 N/A
Danny Briere 0.308 0.457
Wayne Simmonds 0.286 0.402
Scott Hartnell 0.267 0.537
Maxime Talbot 0.258 0.358
Kimmo Timonen 0.161 0.289
Braydon Coburn 0.161 0.272
Zac Rinaldo 0.148 0.136
Sean Couturier 0.138 0.312

EDIT: Also, Tye McGinn has scored 0.029 points per minute played even strength vs Giroux at 0.025 points per minute played even strength.


Last edited by BillDineen: 03-25-2013 at 09:46 AM.
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03-25-2013, 09:58 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
These are PPG at even strength this year and last: (Improvements are in bold)

Jakub Voracek 0.548 0.487
Matt Read 0.480 0.418
Brayden Schenn 0.400 0.241
Claude Giroux 0.387 0.688
Tye McGinn 0.313 N/A
Danny Briere 0.308 0.457
Wayne Simmonds 0.286 0.402
Scott Hartnell 0.267 0.537
Maxime Talbot 0.258 0.358
Kimmo Timonen 0.161 0.289
Braydon Coburn 0.161 0.272
Zac Rinaldo 0.148 0.136
Sean Couturier 0.138 0.312

EDIT: Also, Tye McGinn has scored 0.029 points per minute played even strength vs Giroux at 0.025 points per minute played even strength.
There are some major differences this year than last year. Jagr was a great addition and did wonders for Giroux and Hartnell. Puck controlling to give Giroux and break and not having him do all the work was a big factor. Hartnell hasn't been good this season. He seems to have no chemistry. The lockout really hurt him.

Also, the amount of penalties this team takes is just ridiculous. Its hard always being on the PK. Also, Carle not being here took away a PMD. Flyers have none. there are so many things that are attributing to this team not being good right now. I see people trying to argue giving Giroux 8 million a season would be a mistake. Personally I was hoping for a 7 year 49 million dollar deal or something similar. You can live with paying your star players big wages, but you can't do that when you have guys like Briere, Bryz, Hartnell, Coburn, Meszaros not living up to their contract. We have at least 5 roster players who are preforming significantly below their standards.

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03-25-2013, 10:14 AM
  #37
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...get rid of Giroux?


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03-25-2013, 11:36 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
These are PPG at even strength this year and last: (Improvements are in bold)

Jakub Voracek 0.548 0.487
Matt Read 0.480 0.418
Brayden Schenn 0.400 0.241
Claude Giroux 0.387 0.688
Tye McGinn 0.313 N/A
Danny Briere 0.308 0.457
Wayne Simmonds 0.286 0.402
Scott Hartnell 0.267 0.537
Maxime Talbot 0.258 0.358
Kimmo Timonen 0.161 0.289
Braydon Coburn 0.161 0.272
Zac Rinaldo 0.148 0.136
Sean Couturier 0.138 0.312

EDIT: Also, Tye McGinn has scored 0.029 points per minute played even strength vs Giroux at 0.025 points per minute played even strength.
Well that settles that, give Giroux away and make McGinn the captain. We're in good hands.

Really????........

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03-25-2013, 11:42 AM
  #39
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Well that settles that, give Giroux away and make McGinn the captain. We're in good hands.

Really????........
It is to illustrate how bad G has regressed even strength. That is it.

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03-25-2013, 11:48 AM
  #40
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Well that settles that, give Giroux away and make McGinn the captain. We're in good hands.

Really????........
I'm not quite sure where he suggested any of those things in his post.

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03-25-2013, 12:06 PM
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Then you let them. The Flyers have a good enough foundation* that if Giroux walks for four firsts, you take the compensation, and add that depth to your organization over the next four years. Then, after year four, you can deal the firsts and seconds to get the player that'll get you over the top. It could even be Giroux (see Gratton).

We've seen what happened to Pitkanen, Richards, Carter and Gagne. They had some incredible seasons for the Flyers. In Pitkanen and Carter's case, it was actually closer to one. Still, if the Flyers were offered four first for either of those players, I don't think anyone here knowing what we now know wouldn't take those picks.

*Top nine forwards - Voracek, Hartnell, Read, Simmonds
*Third-line forwards - Schenn, Couturier
*Fourth-line forwards - McGinn, Rinaldo, Laughton
*Extras - Zolnierczyk, Wellwood, Holmstrom, Cousins

*3/4 defensemen - Coburn, Grossmann, Meszaros, Schenn
*5/6 defensemen - Gustafsson
*Extras - Manning

We're not that far out...
Loser attitude if you ask me. Four late first rounders (likely) for Giroux? No chance at all. What's $8m going to be 3/4 years into the cap? Most likely the equivalent of $6m today and Giroux will be a perennial all-star we let go for 4 Steve Downies.

Giroux's struggling (relatively) right now because he has to do everything himself. He has to get it in the zone, find the pass and even put it in himself most of the time. He's getting little help. It doesn't help that the only other form player in the forward group is very similar in style to himself.

We need a sniper.

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03-25-2013, 12:11 PM
  #42
LegionOfDoom91
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Giroux's almost at a PPG status. He's having a bad year on bad team. I think that speaks volumes of his talents that he's still putting numbers in a down year. I fully expect him to rebound next year.

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03-25-2013, 01:56 PM
  #43
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He looks like he barely cares out there, that Giroux domination with the puck is gone, he even seems to be fluffing on a lot of the passes he used to make. I don't know what it is with the Captaincy, but I think it has some kind of voodoo curse assigned to it.

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03-25-2013, 02:54 PM
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martz11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I'm not quite sure where he suggested any of those things in his post.
First off I wasn't serious but if you want a serious answer then I'll bite.

See that's a perfect example of cheer picking a stat. Things such as minutes played, lines that are opposing you, score of the game and game situation are not accounted in that stat. So he's trying to make it sound that Giroux and McGinn are somehow similar in production at even strength when so many factors that go into account are left out. It's comical to be honest.

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03-25-2013, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Giroux's almost at a PPG status. He's having a bad year on bad team. I think that speaks volumes of his talents that he's still putting numbers in a down year. I fully expect him to rebound next year.
He'll rebound as long as Homer gets some talent for him to play with. He needs a shooter and Hartnell has been pretty down this season. A Bobby Ryan type player would be perfect for him IMHO.

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