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Old
03-23-2013, 06:02 AM
  #351
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BAHAHA...you were not even replying to me...but I feel a need to leave my post up anyway!!!

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03-23-2013, 12:17 PM
  #352
Samwise Gagner
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I don't mean to offend anyone by this, but to the people who are adamant that we need a new goalie, do you guys actually have any experience with goaltending or any significant knowledge about the position? As in more than you would know from simply being a fan and watching all the games?

I've played the position all my life, and no, I don't think that makes me an expert who's 100% capable of analyzing and predicting an NHL goalies success, but what I can tell you is Dubey is remarkably strong technically (positionaly, good movement for his size, plays the right angles, etc). He also isn't nearly as bad in high pressure situations as people have mentioned, these late blown leads have more to to with who's on the ice at the time (petrell, brown, whichever other grinder wreck it Ralph goes with) or Petry putting it in his own net. This team has been known for blowing late leads over the last couple seasons regardless of who's in the net at the time.

I'm not going to say he's perfect, he doesn't play the puck (though half the goalies in the league won't even try it either), and yes I've seen the softies too but guess what? No matter how painful that one bad goal is to watch, it's how many goals he lets in that matters, not how they go in. Even during the first 10-15 games when Dubey was standing on his head for us and single handedly winning us games you guys still couldn't get over those occasional goals, but you need to look at the bigger picture and realize how well he's been playing outside of those moments.

As for the save % debate, yes that really is a very important stat for a goaltender. In fact it's probably the best statistical measure to evaluate them by (sv % is less effected by the team around you than the goals against average or win total). And what Dubey's save percentage tells us is that he can maintain a higher than normal percentage of saves while facing considerably more rubber than the average NHL goaltender, even with the occasional softy thrown in there. If it wasn't for those bad ones his stats would be through the roof and you guys would probably be talking vezina, not replacement.

That means that as the team develops defensively and learns to play a tighter more responsible system in their own end the shots against will decrease, which leads to other stats like goals against average and win totals improving big time. Just think how much more energy and focus the guy will have when he doesn't have to face 35+ shots every night, just speculation but that might even help out with the soft goals a little (I always found that when I let in a bad one it was usually during a time of fatigue in a game).

In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.


Last edited by Samwise Gagner: 03-23-2013 at 12:28 PM.
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03-23-2013, 12:40 PM
  #353
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I agree, that considering the cost of a supposedly No. 1 goalie, that the team's "arrival" looks like its another year delayed, and that Dubey continues to show good glimmers of being a real good starter. What will help is being free of the DUI; there's always some low cost, good backups available (bishop) every year. If he isn't up for the 1 job next season, then you make that move.

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03-23-2013, 12:59 PM
  #354
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
I've played the position all my life, and no, I don't think that makes me an expert who's 100% capable of analyzing and predicting an NHL goalies success
Saying that^^^ doesn't mean much

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.
When you say this ^^^

Clearly you believe your 'actual goaltending' knowledge puts you at a higher level than most of us plebes on the board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.
What level of knowledge would you require to hear from?

I guess it's a good thing the Oilers will actually sell tickets and merchandise to people who don't possess your required level of knowledge.

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03-23-2013, 01:41 PM
  #355
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What we need to win tonight.

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03-23-2013, 01:42 PM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
I don't mean to offend anyone by this, but to the people who are adamant that we need a new goalie, do you guys actually have any experience with goaltending or any significant knowledge about the position? As in more than you would know from simply being a fan and watching all the games?

I've played the position all my life, and no, I don't think that makes me an expert who's 100% capable of analyzing and predicting an NHL goalies success, but what I can tell you is Dubey is remarkably strong technically (positionaly, good movement for his size, plays the right angles, etc). He also isn't nearly as bad in high pressure situations as people have mentioned, these late blown leads have more to to with who's on the ice at the time (petrell, brown, whichever other grinder wreck it Ralph goes with) or Petry putting it in his own net. This team has been known for blowing late leads over the last couple seasons regardless of who's in the net at the time.

I'm not going to say he's perfect, he doesn't play the puck (though half the goalies in the league won't even try it either), and yes I've seen the softies too but guess what? No matter how painful that one bad goal is to watch, it's how many goals he lets in that matters, not how they go in. Even during the first 10-15 games when Dubey was standing on his head for us and single handedly winning us games you guys still couldn't get over those occasional goals, but you need to look at the bigger picture and realize how well he's been playing outside of those moments.

As for the save % debate, yes that really is a very important stat for a goaltender. In fact it's probably the best statistical measure to evaluate them by (sv % is less effected by the team around you than the goals against average or win total). And what Dubey's save percentage tells us is that he can maintain a higher than normal percentage of saves while facing considerably more rubber than the average NHL goaltender, even with the occasional softy thrown in there. If it wasn't for those bad ones his stats would be through the roof and you guys would probably be talking vezina, not replacement.

That means that as the team develops defensively and learns to play a tighter more responsible system in their own end the shots against will decrease, which leads to other stats like goals against average and win totals improving big time. Just think how much more energy and focus the guy will have when he doesn't have to face 35+ shots every night, just speculation but that might even help out with the soft goals a little (I always found that when I let in a bad one it was usually during a time of fatigue in a game).

In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.
He's talented. No one should dispute that.

Technically, he's cleaned up his stance over the past few years (you can see the entire crest of his jersey these days which lets us know that he's playing bigger than he used to).

Sadly he still loses himself in his net quite a bit; resulting in him playing bad angles and getting beat by relatively weak shots (see Wingles goal on Wednesday). It's a mental issue. At this point I can only conclude that he's incapable of bearing down and giving a 60 minute effort. Part of the reason he faces a lot of rubber is that shooters know he lets in weak goals and show him a lot less respect than they would a Quick or even a Bobrovsky.

Million dollar talent. 5 cent head.

I'd love it if he proved me wrong.

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03-23-2013, 02:15 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Saying that^^^ doesn't mean much



When you say this ^^^

Clearly you believe your 'actual goaltending' knowledge puts you at a higher level than most of us plebes on the board.



What level of knowledge would you require to hear from?

I guess it's a good thing the Oilers will actually sell tickets and merchandise to people who don't possess your required level of knowledge.
By all means feel free to respond to my post in a way that actually addresses the topic rather than just calling me out.

So far this thread is full of Dubnyk bashing, very little of which seems to be coming from sources who really seem familiar with the position. I'd just like to hear from some people who at very least have a little experience with goaltending in one form or another, an "educated" opinion rather than just a few guys who've seen the highlights of the bad goals and come to the conclusion that we need a new goaltender (despite the fact that he's been above average in most every other ways). If that offends you, don't feel mandated to be part of the discussion.

@worraps: I agree, most of his issues are mentally based. From what i've seen he does best when he knows that he has the confidence of the team by stinging together a lot of starts in a row, and when he knows that he's the number 1 guy he seems a lot more comfortable than when khabi was breathing down his neck the last few seasons. The mental game can be a real b*tch because it can get better with time, or some guys just don't have it. It's too soon to tell if Dubey will ever master the stud #1 goalie mentality, but I think he has improved over the past few seasons in how he recovers after a goal rather than falling apart like he used to do more often.

For now my opinion on him is he is a good option as our starter. Will he win this team a cup? Maybe, maybe not, it's too soon to tell, but I think we have to get the rest of the team looking like a contender before he becomes the issue holding us back. The oilers have a long list of problems, Dubnyk not being anywhere close to one of the biggest ones IMO.


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Old
03-23-2013, 02:22 PM
  #358
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He's talented. No one should dispute that.

Technically, he's cleaned up his stance over the past few years (you can see the entire crest of his jersey these days which lets us know that he's playing bigger than he used to).

Sadly he still loses himself in his net quite a bit; resulting in him playing bad angles and getting beat by relatively weak shots (see Wingles goal on Wednesday). It's a mental issue. At this point I can only conclude that he's incapable of bearing down and giving a 60 minute effort. Part of the reason he faces a lot of rubber is that shooters know he lets in weak goals and show him a lot less respect than they would a Quick or even a Bobrovsky.

Million dollar talent. 5 cent head.

I'd love it if he proved me wrong.
lol so the Oilers face lots of rubber because Dubnyk is bad, unlike Bobrovky, who teams are too scared of to shoot pucks at.

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03-23-2013, 02:25 PM
  #359
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I think its hard to quantify whether or not a viable improvement is "out there" to replace Doobie...but...at best...he is an average NHL starter.

Its tricky. We could end up moving assets and end up without a substantial improvement at the goaltending position.

Right now...I think Id like to see the Coach put some heat on Doobie to bare down.

He was sleeping at the wheel on the GWG the other night against San Jose...taking a docile step inside and giving the shortside post away.

Thats unacceptable.

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03-23-2013, 02:34 PM
  #360
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Ok so lets look at our Goaltending depth as a whole here, we got:

Dubnyk
Khabibulin
Danis
Bunz
Roy
Hovinen

Kahbibulin is done as an NHL net minder, and his body can't handle the movements for any more than a couple games at a time without injury and the Oilers can't rely on him going forward.

Danis is just not good enough and Bunz and Roy are a long way off from the big show and Hovinen...well who knows.

I think we can all agree that we at least need some more options going forward no?

Whether or not we agree on Dubnyk being a legitimate starter in the league, I believe at the very least we need to add to our depth and have a better option for a "back-up" next year rather than re-signing Khabibulin.

Adding someone through the draft this year could help down the road but doesn't help us out next year.

And let's assume that we're not making any blockbuster trades for someone else's current starter, so who are our realistic options moving forward?

Labarbara, Emery, Bishop, , Bernier, Khudobin, Hiller, D. Ellis, Kinkaid? I don't see why Smith or Howard would go anywhere and I don't want Miller or Luongo and can't see how we'd ever get Schneider.

Obviously we don't want to get into the 2-headed monster situation again, but we do need a better tandem don't we?

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03-23-2013, 02:36 PM
  #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
I don't mean to offend anyone by this, but to the people who are adamant that we need a new goalie, do you guys actually have any experience with goaltending or any significant knowledge about the position? As in more than you would know from simply being a fan and watching all the games?

I've played the position all my life, and no, I don't think that makes me an expert who's 100% capable of analyzing and predicting an NHL goalies success, but what I can tell you is Dubey is remarkably strong technically (positionaly, good movement for his size, plays the right angles, etc). He also isn't nearly as bad in high pressure situations as people have mentioned, these late blown leads have more to to with who's on the ice at the time (petrell, brown, whichever other grinder wreck it Ralph goes with) or Petry putting it in his own net. This team has been known for blowing late leads over the last couple seasons regardless of who's in the net at the time.

I'm not going to say he's perfect, he doesn't play the puck (though half the goalies in the league won't even try it either), and yes I've seen the softies too but guess what? No matter how painful that one bad goal is to watch, it's how many goals he lets in that matters, not how they go in. Even during the first 10-15 games when Dubey was standing on his head for us and single handedly winning us games you guys still couldn't get over those occasional goals, but you need to look at the bigger picture and realize how well he's been playing outside of those moments.

As for the save % debate, yes that really is a very important stat for a goaltender. In fact it's probably the best statistical measure to evaluate them by (sv % is less effected by the team around you than the goals against average or win total). And what Dubey's save percentage tells us is that he can maintain a higher than normal percentage of saves while facing considerably more rubber than the average NHL goaltender, even with the occasional softy thrown in there. If it wasn't for those bad ones his stats would be through the roof and you guys would probably be talking vezina, not replacement.

That means that as the team develops defensively and learns to play a tighter more responsible system in their own end the shots against will decrease, which leads to other stats like goals against average and win totals improving big time. Just think how much more energy and focus the guy will have when he doesn't have to face 35+ shots every night, just speculation but that might even help out with the soft goals a little (I always found that when I let in a bad one it was usually during a time of fatigue in a game).

In conclusion, I'd like to hear from someone with some actual goaltending knowledge and experience that thinks Dubnyk is our problem.
Kind of an ignorant post, lots of guys on this board have played hockey at some level and I think shooters can judge a goalies ability as well as a goalie could. Maybe shoot an email to one of the ON guys and see if they can get an interview with Chabot. Regarding the rest all I'm going to say to this is I sure hope he's good at the bolded, he's an NHL goalie.

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03-23-2013, 02:40 PM
  #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samwise Gagner View Post
By all means feel free to respond to my post in a way that actually addresses the topic rather than just calling me out.

So far this thread is full of Dubnyk bashing, very little of which seems to be coming from sources who really seem familiar with the position. I'd just like to hear from some people who at very least have a little experience with goaltending in one form or another, an "educated" opinion rather than just a few guys who've seen the highlights of the bad goals and come to the conclusion that we need a new goaltender (despite the fact that he's been above average in most every other ways). If that offends you, don't feel mandated to be part of the discussion.
Clearly this isn't the right forum for you. There must be somewhere online that people with your self-proclaimed ability to make an educated comment.

Your comment about the 'occasional' softie really weakens your argument and your crediblity. Most games with a soft goal is not occasional.

As for being dismissed about just seeing the highlights, well that's false. Believe it or not there are people who watch as many of the Oilers games as they can, without making baseless claims about knowledge of the position.

Dubnyk has the 26th GAA in the league. He still has poor puck handling skills and makes poor decisions. He hasn't even stopped half of the attempts he has faced in the shootout.

He plays well when the pressure is off. At other times he is uneven and lets in soft goals.

Thankfully Krueger is starting Khabi tonight.

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03-23-2013, 02:40 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Powder View Post
Ok so lets look at our Goaltending depth as a whole here, we got:

Dubnyk
Khabibulin
Danis
Bunz
Roy
Hovinen

Kahbibulin is done as an NHL net minder, and his body can't handle the movements for any more than a couple games at a time without injury and the Oilers can't rely on him going forward.

Danis is just not good enough and Bunz and Roy are a long way off from the big show and Hovinen...well who knows.

I think we can all agree that we at least need some more options going forward no?

Whether or not we agree on Dubnyk being a legitimate starter in the league, I believe at the very least we need to add to our depth and have a better option for a "back-up" next year rather than re-signing Khabibulin.

Adding someone through the draft this year could help down the road but doesn't help us out next year.

And let's assume that we're not making any blockbuster trades for someone else's current starter, so who are our realistic options moving forward?

Labarbara, Emery, Bishop, , Bernier, Khudobin, Hiller, D. Ellis, Kinkaid? I don't see why Smith or Howard would go anywhere and I don't want Miller or Luongo and can't see how we'd ever get Schneider.

Obviously we don't want to get into the 2-headed monster situation again, but we do need a better tandem don't we?
No tandems!! Spector had a guy from vancouver management on a few weeks ago and he basically said theres no chance they're trading Schneider. I'd take Luongo but doubt they'd trade him in the division.

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03-23-2013, 02:48 PM
  #364
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Clearly this isn't the right forum for you. There must be somewhere online that people with your self-proclaimed ability to make an educated comment.

Your comment about the 'occasional' softie really weakens your argument and your crediblity. Most games with a soft goal is not occasional.

As for being dismissed about just seeing the highlights, well that's false. Believe it or not there are people who watch as many of the Oilers games as they can, without making baseless claims about knowledge of the position.

Dubnyk has the 26th GAA in the league. He still has poor puck handling skills and makes poor decisions. He hasn't even stopped half of the attempts he has faced in the shootout.

He plays well when the pressure is off. At other times he is uneven and lets in soft goals.

Thankfully Krueger is starting Khabi tonight.
Why would you bring up GAA? GAA is not a proper stat to judge a goalie, which is why everyone uses sv%. Dubnyk's sv% is still good, which is probably why you didn't use it. If the Oilers gave up 27 shots per game instead of 34, the GAA would go down to about 2, which would put him in the top 5 in the NHL.

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03-23-2013, 02:51 PM
  #365
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Why would you bring up GAA? GAA is not a proper stat to judge a goalie, which is why everyone uses sv%. If the Oilers gave up 27 shots per game instead of 34, the GAA would go down to about 2, which would put him in the top 5 in the NHL.
Yea but then his sv% would also probably go down, which everyone always brings up to support the guy. And no he's not a top 5 goalie, never will be.

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03-23-2013, 02:54 PM
  #366
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Yea but then his sv% would also probably go down, which everyone always brings up to support the guy. And no he's not a top 5 goalie, never will be.
Yeah thanks for helping my point. He isn't a top 5 goalie yet his GAA would be top 5, because GAA is partly a team stat. You don't know if his sv% would go down, you're just guessing.

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03-23-2013, 03:09 PM
  #367
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Yeah thanks for helping my point. He isn't a top 5 goalie yet his GAA would be top 5, because GAA is partly a team stat. You don't know if his sv% would go down, you're just guessing.
No I'm using basic math, fewer shots means each shot is worth a higher percentage. Right now we have two guys in the top 20 in shot blocking. I think our shot totals will go down when we get a few centers that win more faceoffs then they lose. Also Dubnyk's only averaging 30 shots a game not the 34 your suggesting.

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03-23-2013, 03:15 PM
  #368
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No tandems!! Spector had a guy from vancouver management on a few weeks ago and he basically said theres no chance they're trading Schneider. I'd take Luongo but doubt they'd trade him in the division.
I wouldn't take Luongo.

The only reason Vancouver is in the situation that they're in is because Luongo was inconsistent and they had to bring Schneider in during the playoffs to get them through a couple of the series' and ended up winning the starting job away from Luongo.

Luongo is notorious in Van for letting in soft goals and having really bad nights and wouldn't last 5 minutes under the scrutiny of the common Oiler fan IMHO.

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03-23-2013, 03:22 PM
  #369
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I wouldn't take Luongo.

The only reason Vancouver is in the situation that they're in is because Luongo was inconsistent and they had to bring Schneider in during the playoffs to get them through a couple of the series' and ended up winning the starting job away from Luongo.

Luongo is notorious in Van for letting in soft goals and having really bad nights and wouldn't last 5 minutes under the scrutiny of the common Oiler fan IMHO.
Luongo got pulled in that playoff series because the whole team sucked. Was a bad coaching decision by Vigneault and Luongo asked for a trade. And he's lived under Vancouver's media scrunity for awhile and has never had an issue with it.

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03-23-2013, 03:28 PM
  #370
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Luongo got pulled in that playoff series because the whole team sucked. Was a bad coaching decision by Vigneault and Luongo asked for a trade. And he's lived under Vancouver's media scrunity for awhile and has never had an issue with it.
Luongo is far out of the Oilers price range given his current contract. With the new CBA I can't see anyone trading for him.

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03-23-2013, 03:33 PM
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Luongo got pulled in that playoff series because the whole team sucked. Was a bad coaching decision by Vigneault and Luongo asked for a trade. And he's lived under Vancouver's media scrunity for awhile and has never had an issue with it.
I don't know if I agree with that. The whole captaincy thing and having to talk to the media all the time didn't go over too well. And with his contract Oiler fans would be riding him like a rented mule as Dutchie used to say.

Every time he has a bad night and gets lit up because of the team in front of him sucks we'd be hearing about what a bad trade it was and we need to dump his contract and how the Oilers goaltending sucks.

We need a goalie that doesn't necessarily need a great team in front of him like Luongo does.

The Oilers need someone that can bail them out every time they give the puck away in their own end, give an odd-man rush or leave someone wide open in the slot for a glorious scoring chance.

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03-23-2013, 04:18 PM
  #372
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I don't know if I agree with that. The whole captaincy thing and having to talk to the media all the time didn't go over too well. And with his contract Oiler fans would be riding him like a rented mule as Dutchie used to say.

Every time he has a bad night and gets lit up because of the team in front of him sucks we'd be hearing about what a bad trade it was and we need to dump his contract and how the Oilers goaltending sucks.

We need a goalie that doesn't necessarily need a great team in front of him like Luongo does.

The Oilers need someone that can bail them out every time they give the puck away in their own end, give an odd-man rush or leave someone wide open in the slot for a glorious scoring chance.
Great. Unless Lundqvist, Rinne, Lehtonen, etc come available, we aren't trading for one of those anyway.

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03-23-2013, 04:27 PM
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Great. Unless Lundqvist, Rinne, Lehtonen, etc come available, we aren't trading for one of those anyway.
Exactly, which is why I don't think there's really any need to get rid of Dubnyk at the moment.

He's doing a relatively decent job and I think should be given some slack to figure things out a little longer while we're still growing as a team.

I DO however think we need to have the whole starter situation figured out in the next 2 seasons though, which is why I think we need a 1B option for now that has a real shot at turning into a true starter if Dubnyk doesn't pan out.

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03-23-2013, 04:47 PM
  #374
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
No I'm using basic math, fewer shots means each shot is worth a higher percentage. Right now we have two guys in the top 20 in shot blocking. I think our shot totals will go down when we get a few centers that win more faceoffs then they lose. Also Dubnyk's only averaging 30 shots a game not the 34 your suggesting.
What? The Oilers allow 33.6 shots per game so I have no idea where this 30 number comes from. If Dubnyk is pulled early in a game or something that has no bearing on how many shots the team gives up. You can't just take his total shots and divide by the number of games he has played...

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03-23-2013, 04:51 PM
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worraps
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Originally Posted by Insta View Post
lol so the Oilers face lots of rubber because Dubnyk is bad, unlike Bobrovky, who teams are too scared of to shoot pucks at.
It plays a part. Not as big a part as defenseman who have difficulty clearing the zone but it plays a part.

In his prime Hasek faced more wide shots than anyone in the league because shooters thought they needed a perfect shot to beat him. Dubnyk suffers from the opposite.

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