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Saturday Night's Alright For...Losing?

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Old
03-23-2013, 08:58 PM
  #1
BJG
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Saturday Night's Alright For...Losing?

What is it with the Habs on Saturday Night?

We are 20-6-5, but only 5-3-1 on Sat, while 15-3-4 the rest of the week.

That's half our losses. Maybe just a statistical fluke, but annoying nonetheless.

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03-23-2013, 09:07 PM
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DAChampion
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Small sample size.

Let's compare our win-loss record in games where Ryder has exactly one assist to games where Pacioretty has exactly one assist. We can then see which situation has a better record, so as to decide which player to trade and which to keep.

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03-23-2013, 09:08 PM
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Marc the Habs Fan
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Ya, definitely small sample size. Take out those 2 horrendous Leafs games and it's 5-1-1.

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03-23-2013, 09:09 PM
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Also, we haven't had a single game on a Friday yet, so we can't blame it on fatigue or anything.

Sabres - Habs (3-2)
Pens - Habs (7-6OT)
Toronto - Habs (6-0)
Toronto - Habs (2-1)

We're losing to teams we struggle against on a regular basis which is costing us some big points, especially losing to playoff teams we're better than (Toronto) and non-playoff teams like the Sabres who we should beat. That loss to pens is acceptable even though it was a brutal game all around from both teams so the habs just need to fight and work harder and win the games where the odds are stacked in their favour, it's not so much of a statistical thing its just the habs playing bad.

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Old
03-23-2013, 09:10 PM
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BJG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Small sample size.

Let's compare our win-loss record in games where Ryder has exactly one assist to games where Pacioretty has exactly one assist. We can then see which situation has a better record, so as to decide which player to trade and which to keep.
I admitted it might be a statistical fluke, but that's a terrible comparison.

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03-23-2013, 09:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Take out those 2 horrendous Leafs games and it's 5-1-1.
"Take out" 2/3 of Subban's goals and Gallagher's points and I guess they're not having very good seasons.

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03-23-2013, 09:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJG View Post
What is it with the Habs on Saturday Night?

We are 20-6-5, but only 5-3-1 on Sat, while 15-3-4 the rest of the week.

That's half our losses. Maybe just a statistical fluke, but annoying nonetheless.
lol what? thats still a winning record and still above .500.

if there's one annoying stat we have is that we're 5-5-3 against NE teams. but thank god we're 9-0-0 vs SE. makes up for it.

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03-23-2013, 10:03 PM
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Darth Joker
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Our Saturday games happen to include many against teams that are like kryptonite to us. The problem is Buffalo and Toronto, and how they play well against us. It's not what day of the week we play them.

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03-23-2013, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Toshio View Post
lol what? thats still a winning record and still above .500.

if there's one annoying stat we have is that we're 5-5-3 against NE teams. but thank god we're 9-0-0 vs SE. makes up for it.
There's no mystery to it. The Northeast division is the strongest in the East, the Southeast is the weakest. If those stats were reversed the Habs would have a commanding lead over the Bruins.

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03-23-2013, 10:39 PM
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Dont Poke Subban
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
There's no mystery to it. The Northeast division is the strongest in the East, the Southeast is the weakest. If those stats were reversed the Habs would have a commanding lead over the Bruins.
Stop making excuses!

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03-23-2013, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Toshio View Post
lol what? thats still a winning record and still above .500.

if there's one annoying stat we have is that we're 5-5-3 against NE teams. but thank god we're 9-0-0 vs SE. makes up for it.
NE is the strongest division in the league.

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03-23-2013, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
NE is the strongest division in the league.
I know that. But again, please stop making excuses! lol it doesnt mean we have to be okay with 5-5-3.

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03-23-2013, 11:16 PM
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Another stat I found interesting: Montreal is 0-6-0 when trailing after the 3rd period.

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Old
03-24-2013, 12:24 AM
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Madam Kadri
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Originally Posted by Habsawce View Post
Another stat I found interesting: Montreal is 0-6-0 when trailing after the 3rd period.
Some things never change.

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03-24-2013, 12:51 AM
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DAChampion
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Originally Posted by BJG View Post
I admitted it might be a statistical fluke, but that's a terrible comparison.
It's not.

You're looking for any pattern you can find, and then when you find a pattern you are assigning it mysticism.

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03-24-2013, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toshio View Post
I know that. But again, please stop making excuses! lol it doesnt mean we have to be okay with 5-5-3.
We're not ok with it, a lot of us recognize that it is harder to play against tough teams and have been calling for more toughness.

With that said, aside from being a stronger division, it is also a small sample size.

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Old
03-24-2013, 07:08 AM
  #17
One Man Rock Band
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Its cause, me, their good luck charm, misses half the game on Saturday's due to work.

Guess I'll have to take off Saturday night's of the playoffs...

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Old
03-24-2013, 07:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
It's not.

You're looking for any pattern you can find, and then when you find a pattern you are assigning it mysticism.
That's called Data Mining. You just run the data through every single analysis possible and try to divine something out of it. It's frowned upon in the Statistics community (you need to have strong fundamentals to justify your correlations), and usually deemed as incompetent in the Financial community.

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Old
03-24-2013, 07:50 AM
  #19
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OMG! Losses on 23rd of march mean horrible things. My psychic reading from miss cleo told me of terrible doom.

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Old
03-24-2013, 07:52 AM
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DAChampion
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Originally Posted by PricePkPatch View Post
That's called Data Mining. You just run the data through every single analysis possible and try to divine something out of it. It's frowned upon in the Statistics community (you need to have strong fundamentals to justify your correlations), and usually deemed as incompetent in the Financial community.
Yup, good post.

Basically, if you're asking 100 questions, and one of your answers has a 1% chance of being true, you have shown nothing.

The OP compared 5-3-1 on Sat, while 15-3-4 the rest of the week, from which you expect 6.14:1.23:1.64, which is extremely similar to 5-3-1.

It would need to be very different from 6.14:1.23:1.64 for the OP to have a valid point. If you round, we are expecting 6 wins, and we only have 5. It's a minor glitch, it's not even a 1% thing.

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Old
03-24-2013, 07:57 AM
  #21
PricePkPatch
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Yup, good post.

Basically, if you're asking 100 questions, and one of your answers has a 1% chance of being true, you have shown nothing.

The OP compared 5-3-1 on Sat, while 15-3-4 the rest of the week, from which you expect 6.14:1.23:1.64, which is extremely similar to 5-3-1.

It would need to be very different from 6.14:1.23:1.64 for the OP to have a valid point. If you round, we are expecting 6 wins, and we only have 5. It's a minor glitch, it's not even a 1% thing.
Here's a good example of data mining


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