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Old
03-23-2013, 10:43 PM
  #51
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If they win the next 3 games then I'll root for the playoffs. Until then I'm still in tank mode.

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03-23-2013, 10:48 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
If they win the next 3 games then I'll root for the playoffs. Until then I'm still in tank mode.
That are the words of a true, die hard sabres-fan!

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Old
03-23-2013, 11:09 PM
  #53
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Unlike Ruff, Rolston has them playing up to their potential.

Their potential is good enough for about 10th place.

Should have kept Ruff?

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03-23-2013, 11:13 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
...is officially over

only 5 of our remaining 16 games are on the road
only 2 more back to backs
relatively easy overall schedule

it's playoffs... or drafting 10th-15th

the trade deadline just got more complicated
I don't think so. I expect Regier to do what he did last year. Trade pending UFAs (Regehr/Leo) for as high a pick as he can get. I also expect him to make a "hockey trade" like the Hodgson/Kassian deal to address needs on the team. THough it may involved older players for a younger player this time around. Regier said recently thats the type of move he is looking to make. As in trade an established player for a younger player with upside potential.

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Old
03-23-2013, 11:16 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I don't think so. I expect Regier to do what he did last year. Trade pending UFAs (Regehr/Leo) for as high a pick as he can get. I also expect him to make a "hockey trade" like the Hodgson/Kassian deal last deadline to address needs on the team.
This is what I'm hoping for, trade ufas for picks and a hockey trade like miller for a younger goalie+ futures or pominville for another impact player

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03-23-2013, 11:23 PM
  #56
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This is why it's so annoying being a Buffalo sports fan, they're constantly in the middle. They can never be at one extreme or the other, it's always just bad enough to miss top picks or just bad enough to not go all the way. It's beyond frustrating.

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03-23-2013, 11:27 PM
  #57
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Posted this in the other thread, but I'll add it here and try and do an updated one after each game:

================

-----------------
Next Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. 8th Place Carolina has 32 points with 15 Regulation/OT wins in 30 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs. Either way, I see the next 5 games as the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 5 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts)
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)

If we win 3 or 4 of those games, I believe Darcy will not be in a very selling move at the deadline because we may be within that 2-4 point range of 8th and he may even feel like buying a rental playing, which I believe would be the absolute worst thing that could happen to the team and its future at the moment.
If however we only win 2 or less of those games, we could very well be on our way to some major changes and happenings at the deadline.

---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation

In our 16 remaining games

Of our final 16 games, we play:
  • 10 Home Games
  • 6 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)

Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 15 games and have gone 7-5-3, and 4-4-3 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 17 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-3, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 47 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (39% Chance, or a 59% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 6/8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .389 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 6 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-3-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-7-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 45% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 20% chance of finishing 14th.
This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .466), or roughly only 1/2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 89%, from .353 to .667 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 16 games. 52 points would mean a 59.4% chance, 53 a 80.7% chance, and 54 a 92.9% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 11 of the 16 games which is about .700 hockey
  • At minimum 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  • Or at least points in 75% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/12th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is a 64% to 94% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 9/10 wins in our final 16.
*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 33% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think/hope (remember, I'm on the tank train) we go 1-3-1 next week, losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and Tampa in a SO, and beat Florida. I think we finish the final 16 games 6-8-2, so 81% chance at a bottom 3 finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 70%, 33%, and 7% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 96%, 80%, and 40% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 55% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


=========
Note:

I've seemed to notice that a lot of bashing is going back and forth between people that want them to tank, want to make a run, etc. Let me try to make the civilized argument to "tanking." When we root/cheer/hope/whatever for a loss, we aren't trying to root against the team. I think it's fair to say that most of us a passionate Sabres fans that want to see the team do good, however we've just come to the conclusion that:
  • this isn't the year for us
  • we most likely won't be having the opportunity to draft this high again anytime soon
  • the high end draft talent this year is ridiculously good
  • and we want to see some changes on the team.
The Maple Leafs game was one of the funnest and best game to watch this year. I was happy that it was an entertaining game, the team showed effort, and even though I'm pro-tank, I was happy for the win. But games like tonight against Montreal are what frustrate me as a fan because we were clearly outclassed and honestly won a game that we really shouldn't have.

In the end, whether you're pro-tank or anti-tank, we're all fans of the team and just want to see the team better, we just have different viewpoints on how to go about it. It's like arguing politics. Both sides think they're right and both sides have merit to them. I just hope we can keep it all civil


Last edited by sjci: 03-23-2013 at 11:37 PM.
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Old
03-23-2013, 11:30 PM
  #58
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Realistically erne is looking like he could be an option, I would love to take him and have a future
Erne-grigs-armia line

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Old
03-24-2013, 12:18 AM
  #59
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As of this moment, even though we are currently in 22nd, place (or the 9th pick), we have the greatest odds of finishing in 26th Place, or getting the 5th overall pick.

The projected standings show the draft order as being
*Going off that the worst team wins the lottery

1) Florida (73% chance)
2) Colorado (21% Chance)
3) Calgary (12% Chance)
4) Philadelphia (10% Chance)
5) Buffalo (10 % Chance)
6) New York Islanders (9% Chance)
7) Edmonton (8% Chance)
8) Columbus (7% Chance)

So it's a likely probability that Florida and Colorado are the bottom 2 teams. Slots 3-8 are really up for grabs between those teams as few % points separate them

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Old
03-24-2013, 12:30 AM
  #60
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Does SCS reveal their math/assumptions anywhere?

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03-24-2013, 01:13 AM
  #61
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I'm just terrified this streak will lead to the sane ending as last few years: good enough to just miss and give Darcy cause to keep the rotten core together, and not bad enough for a lottery pick.

I just hope he realizes, streak or no streak, it's time to change the guard

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Old
03-24-2013, 01:20 AM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
As of this moment, even though we are currently in 22nd, place (or the 9th pick), we have the greatest odds of finishing in 26th Place, or getting the 5th overall pick.

The projected standings show the draft order as being
*Going off that the worst team wins the lottery

1) Florida (73% chance)
2) Colorado (21% Chance)
3) Calgary (12% Chance)
4) Philadelphia (10% Chance)
5) Buffalo (10 % Chance)
6) New York Islanders (9% Chance)
7) Edmonton (8% Chance)
8) Columbus (7% Chance)

So it's a likely probability that Florida and Colorado are the bottom 2 teams. Slots 3-8 are really up for grabs between those teams as few % points separate them
lets see how the next three winnable games go, and if they blow two of those you can bring this stuff up again. I'm on the win wagon.

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Old
03-24-2013, 01:28 AM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason View Post
Does SCS reveal their math/assumptions anywhere?
Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BUFSABES1981 View Post
lets see how the next three winnable games go, and if they blow two of those you can bring this stuff up again. I'm on the win wagon.
They are 4-1-1 in their last six, so they've definitely bucked their season trend. But yes, this next week (5 games) will be key to seeing in which direction they will go

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Old
03-24-2013, 02:07 AM
  #64
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If they lose every game this week, I'm going to start preparing my new song "Tank On", to the sound of Aerosmith's "Dream On"

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Old
03-24-2013, 02:09 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Sports Club Stats calculates each teamís odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When itís finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the leagueís tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each teamís highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs.
I see. So if the team up and traded for Crosby, the odds wouldn't show a negligible difference?

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Old
03-24-2013, 02:11 AM
  #66
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Did anyone just say.......


Tank?


There's no way you guys can do as bad as the Oilers over the next 20 games or so. It's in our blood. No batch of players can give less ****s about competing and winning than ours. It's something we take pride in. Once playoffs are out of the question, this team can tank like nobody's business.

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03-24-2013, 02:14 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Did anyone just say.......


Tank?


There's no way you guys can do as bad as the Oilers over the next 20 games or so. It's in our blood. No batch of players can give less ****s about competing and winning than ours. It's something we take pride in. Once playoffs are out of the question, this team can tank like nobody's business.
Yeah, no offense but you guys suck ass. No heart and soul guys?

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03-24-2013, 07:33 AM
  #68
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They're starting to regain confidence and play with a little verve under Rolston. And the rest of the Eastern cellar is collapsing all around them.

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03-24-2013, 07:45 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by aceface33 View Post
Unlike Ruff, Rolston has them playing up to their potential.

Their potential is good enough for about 10th place.

Should have kept Ruff?
Dunno...under Rolston I'm seeing more interesting line combos...Myers back to be being a defensive D-man, and Stafford finally scratched.

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03-24-2013, 08:16 AM
  #70
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Originally Posted by TheyAreGoodScaryGood View Post
Realistically erne is looking like he could be an option, I would love to take him and have a future
Erne-grigs-armia line
Just what we need, another 2nd line winger!

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03-24-2013, 08:27 AM
  #71
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The difference between 10th in the east and 14th will likely be around 4-6 points, we lose 3 of the next four and we are back near the bottom.

Lets be realistic we got dominated in the 2 MTL games and TOR was a rather fortunate win after being down by 2 twice. Just as easily we could have lost the last 3 and been 29th in the league. Tampa game won't be easy seeing as it could be the first game with a new coach, guys will play hard, even FLA has been playing better of late.

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03-24-2013, 10:46 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Dubi Doo View Post
Or Tyler Myers or Joel Armia or Mikhail Grigorenko or Girgs etc...
Who's to say that Armia, Grigorenko, Girgs etc are even going to have the success that Stafford has had in the NHL? Myers also hasn't been a big impact player for quite some time now...remember we all loved Stafford after his rookie year too.

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Old
03-24-2013, 01:03 PM
  #73
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They're starting to regain confidence and play with a little verve under Rolston. And the rest of the Eastern cellar is collapsing all around them.
That's why I'm giving them better than the 7.3% chance of making the playoffs. We have a few easier opponents coming up, and this is going to play out like a large track Nascar finish. If we can sneak up into 8th, we can maybe hold it.

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Old
03-24-2013, 01:16 PM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Did anyone just say.......


Tank?


There's no way you guys can do as bad as the Oilers over the next 20 games or so. It's in our blood. No batch of players can give less ****s about competing and winning than ours. It's something we take pride in. Once playoffs are out of the question, this team can tank like nobody's business.
Plz don't out tank us...

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03-24-2013, 01:23 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Darcy Regier View Post
The difference between 10th in the east and 14th will likely be around 4-6 points, we lose 3 of the next four and we are back near the bottom.

Lets be realistic we got dominated in the 2 MTL games and TOR was a rather fortunate win after being down by 2 twice. Just as easily we could have lost the last 3 and been 29th in the league. Tampa game won't be easy seeing as it could be the first game with a new coach, guys will play hard, even FLA has been playing better of late.
Remind me how hard the Sabres played on the first game with their new coach.

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