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2013 NHL Draft Thread II (6/30, 3PM EDT)

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Old
03-22-2013, 12:26 AM
  #276
georgiabluejacket
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Should be able to land Shinkaruk in the 8-14 range, and while Nichuskin has huge upside, the Russian factor is heavy, and he could fall as far as the mid-20s, from what I'm hearing.
-My two "fall back" players are Monahan & Shinkaruk. Both could be had in the 8-12 range I think.

-Where have you heard Nichuskin is falling? I've been hearing the opposite a little in that he's "firmly" in the #4 prospect hole. Now admittingly there's a difference between #4 prospect and #4 draft position, but still. I could potentially see him in Buffalo with Grigorenko, but you could be right in the "russian factor" might play into his draft position. Now say he does fall and is still available at LA's pick, do we have the cajones to pull the trigger? Davidson did have Tarasenko in St. Louis, so I imagine we would.

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03-22-2013, 02:51 PM
  #277
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I would be irate if we passed on Nichuskin with LA's pick. He will not fall that far. But you have to take him that late.

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03-22-2013, 03:07 PM
  #278
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This piece from a St. Louis blogger on Jarmo's draft strategy was posted on another thread and I'm moving it over here to discuss.

Main points:

1. Draft BPA. So if that's a defenceman with our top pick, you take him.

But I suspect they'll try to move up or down if that's the case, or trade him later a la Rundblad for Tarasenko. JD made it clear recently that other than Seth Jones at #1, the team is focused on forwards.

2. No safe picks. Swing for the fences.

I like this tendency of Jarmo's as well. I think the value to the franchise from an elite center is worth a whole bag of very good players. And if you look at our current roster we are stacked with middle-six / second-pair guys. We need top-end, and we'll have to take chances to get it.

3. Invest in scouting/ development / farm system. The blogger notes Columbus has done well with this.

I'd agree in the last year or so we have done well with this, and have been more attentive to Springfield. It's good to hear that Jarmo will continue this.

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03-22-2013, 05:39 PM
  #279
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I would be irate if we passed on Nichuskin with LA's pick. He will not fall that far. But you have to take him that late.
I agree I don't think he'll fall that far, but I was curious. Wondering if we'd consider it with even our first pick(which is looking about 12-14 range)

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03-22-2013, 07:37 PM
  #280
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Nichushkin signed a 3 year contract with his hometown Traktor Chelyabinsk. How teams view that may depend on what he says in interviews. Previously, he's said in Russian statements that have been been spun by the Russian media as sounding like he doesn't want to come to the NHL (something like "I don't want to talk about that").

If enough teams pass on him, it may scare off more teams. There are safer picks in the 4-10 range, maybe even 4-15.

But there are teams that may end up with a lottery pick that usually don't, like the Caps or Flyers, who may be more attractive to a Russian and are willing to wait.

If Jarmo is going to swing for the fences rather than play it safe, then he's going to pick Nichushkin over say Erne or Wennberg, but a lot of teams are going to take a prospect who has a good chance of being a decent NHLer over one that might stay in Russia.

With all the Russians players in Columbus, it would be a good situation for a youngster like Nichushkin and much different than when Filatov or Zherdev were here. And staying in Russia and developing 3 years might have been a better strategy for Filatov rather than rushing him. But that's going to be a long, nervous wait to see if he will or won't sign.

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03-22-2013, 07:53 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by JacketsFanWest View Post
Nichushkin signed a 3 year contract with his hometown Traktor Chelyabinsk. How teams view that may depend on what he says in interviews. Previously, he's said in Russian statements that have been been spun by the Russian media as sounding like he doesn't want to come to the NHL (something like "I don't want to talk about that").

If enough teams pass on him, it may scare off more teams. There are safer picks in the 4-10 range, maybe even 4-15.

But there are teams that may end up with a lottery pick that usually don't, like the Caps or Flyers, who may be more attractive to a Russian and are willing to wait.

If Jarmo is going to swing for the fences rather than play it safe, then he's going to pick Nichushkin over say Erne or Wennberg, but a lot of teams are going to take a prospect who has a good chance of being a decent NHLer over one that might stay in Russia.

With all the Russians players in Columbus, it would be a good situation for a youngster like Nichushkin and much different than when Filatov or Zherdev were here. And staying in Russia and developing 3 years might have been a better strategy for Filatov rather than rushing him. But that's going to be a long, nervous wait to see if he will or won't sign.
I'd agree that if we knew we would get him eventually, having a Russian kid develop a few years in Russia isn't bad, and might be better, as they don't have to deal with the culture shock or living away from home until they are older.

I wonder if Jarmo can meet with Nichushkin, bring some Russian Jackets with him, assess his character and ask him straight up if he wants to play for the Jackets. If so, good, if not, then we don't pick him.

Another concern I have with Nichushkin is that he hasn't demonstrated the elite hockey sense yet. He's been playing in a man's league and scoring highlight reel goals, but highlight reel goals don't make up more than a small part of anyone's value. Can he make his teammates better?

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03-23-2013, 12:58 AM
  #282
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Enough of this 1st round talk. Who do we target in the 2nd?

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03-23-2013, 02:24 AM
  #283
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Originally Posted by georgiabluejacket View Post
Enough of this 1st round talk. Who do we target in the 2nd?
As much as I'm intrigued by "Pocket PK" Jordan Subban, I'd bet the Jackets remain focused on forwards in the second round. This year there are still going to be forwards with homerun upside in the second round (although substantially sketchier than the guys in the first, of course), and by all available accounts Jarmo will zero in on them.

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03-23-2013, 06:26 AM
  #284
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I'd agree that if we knew we would get him eventually, having a Russian kid develop a few years in Russia isn't bad, and might be better, as they don't have to deal with the culture shock or living away from home until they are older.

I wonder if Jarmo can meet with Nichushkin, bring some Russian Jackets with him, assess his character and ask him straight up if he wants to play for the Jackets. If so, good, if not, then we don't pick him.

Another concern I have with Nichushkin is that he hasn't demonstrated the elite hockey sense yet. He's been playing in a man's league and scoring highlight reel goals, but highlight reel goals don't make up more than a small part of anyone's value. Can he make his teammates better?
Ah, the infamous hockey sense,low IQ I guess. Where exactly do you watch him to determine this? Do they broadcast KHL on the net?

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03-23-2013, 07:26 AM
  #285
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Ah, the infamous hockey sense,low IQ I guess. Where exactly do you watch him to determine this? Do they broadcast KHL on the net?
WJCs, and yeah they stream KHL games.

One is actually starting in little over half of an hour.

I'd agree with that observation.

But this kid has the physical tools to overcome it.

If he was Canadian, TSN and Canadian media would hype him as the next Rick Nash.

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03-23-2013, 10:15 AM
  #286
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Us on the Flyers board were talking about how Nichushkin is perfect for Columbus. With 3 firsts, I THINK the Russian factor can make him fall to the mid teens. Whether that is the CLB or NYR pick I dont know but I think Jarmo can use one of those picks on a guy who wont show up for atleast 2-3 years. Another Russian to look at is Anton Slepyshev. Passed on last year but people are saying this season he wont be (he was passed because of Russian factor). Wouldnt be a bad 5th or 6th round pick.

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03-23-2013, 11:30 AM
  #287
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Originally Posted by georgiabluejacket View Post
Enough of this 1st round talk. Who do we target in the 2nd?
I honestly don't think we will have one. Jarmo is agressive, and I think he uses that pick in order to move up to get one of the top guys on his board. I would bet we see a trade to move up with our pick and grab someone like Lindholm. If we keep the pick I could see us going after a guy like Klimchuck, Fasching, or Kujawinski. Of those I'd favor Fasching as he has the biggest upside (kid has Nash type upside if he reaches his potential and is apparently a character guy as well. The fact that he'll likely be available in the second round is one of the reasons to me that this is a deep draft)

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03-23-2013, 03:12 PM
  #288
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Ah, the infamous hockey sense,low IQ I guess. Where exactly do you watch him to determine this? Do they broadcast KHL on the net?
Hockey sense is real, and the term is somewhat interchangeable with "clever" or this new phrase "hockey iq". To give you a scenario relevant to Nichushkin, imagine a guy is in the offensive zone in a cycle situation. Can he figure out a way to get the puck to the prime scoring areas that doesn't involve just bulldozing your way through in a primal fashion? The Sedin's might be the best at this in the whole league, and a lot more goals around the league come from clever alternatives than the bulldozer approach.

I've only seen Nichushkin play 3 times, but he didn't get much ice time in any game, so my critique is as much from scouting reports as it is from first hand viewing. And I'm not saying he doesn't have the hockey sense, he just hasn't proven it.

Jarmo is always looking for elite hockey sense, and I doubt he would take a guy even at #20 who doesn't have at least good hockey sense. Even if you're 6-5 230 its tough to be elite in the NHL without it.

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03-24-2013, 08:09 PM
  #289
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Unfortunately I think the challenging road schedule provides Columbus with too many losses to stay in the chase. I have a gut feel Columbus ends up with Lindholm with their first pick.

CBJ pick(5) - Lindholm
NYR pick(13) - Nichushkin
LAK pick(18) - Mantha

I would absolutely love that from the draft. I do think we see a touch of the Russian factor due to the contract and with 3 picks the gamble is worth it. Mantha seems like he's in that 15-20 range....

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03-24-2013, 08:48 PM
  #290
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Unfortunately I think the challenging road schedule provides Columbus with too many losses to stay in the chase. I have a gut feel Columbus ends up with Lindholm with their first pick.

CBJ pick(5) - Lindholm
NYR pick(13) - Nichushkin
LAK pick(18) - Mantha

I would absolutely love that from the draft. I do think we see a touch of the Russian factor due to the contract and with 3 picks the gamble is worth it. Mantha seems like he's in that 15-20 range....
I would love those results. And I agree, I don't see our success over the past few weeks lasting too long with this road trip. Maybe .500 but not good enough to push us in. Not to say we won't see the same effort, I think this team knows how to play but is simply lacking in certain areas.

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03-24-2013, 10:33 PM
  #291
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Unfortunately I think the challenging road schedule provides Columbus with too many losses to stay in the chase. I have a gut feel Columbus ends up with Lindholm with their first pick.

CBJ pick(5) - Lindholm
NYR pick(13) - Nichushkin
LAK pick(18) - Mantha

I would absolutely love that from the draft. I do think we see a touch of the Russian factor due to the contract and with 3 picks the gamble is worth it. Mantha seems like he's in that 15-20 range....
If those are the other two prospects that we come away with, then Nichuskin may be worth the risk. Maybe.

I have a feeling that we'll end up with some "huh?" picks again, at least according to the faithful around here. Jarmo has been known to beat to his own tune with his scouting, and I think this year will be no exception. So don't be too shocked if we see some Ryan Murray-type picks at the draft. Not that they will be stretches, but they may not be the "popular vote".

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03-24-2013, 11:35 PM
  #292
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I'd agree that if we knew we would get him eventually, having a Russian kid develop a few years in Russia isn't bad, and might be better, as they don't have to deal with the culture shock or living away from home until they are older.

I wonder if Jarmo can meet with Nichushkin, bring some Russian Jackets with him, assess his character and ask him straight up if he wants to play for the Jackets. If so, good, if not, then we don't pick him.

Another concern I have with Nichushkin is that he hasn't demonstrated the elite hockey sense yet. He's been playing in a man's league and scoring highlight reel goals, but highlight reel goals don't make up more than a small part of anyone's value. Can he make his teammates better?
I don't agree with your assessment of Nichushkin's hockey sense. I think it's extremely high, and I don't believe for a second that anything on the ice will prevent him from becoming an NHL star in the future.

The star of this year's draft in hockey sense will be Jonathan Drouin. He's got the type of off-the-charts IQ on the ice that anyone who's spent more than a day in hockey will fantasize about. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had the best sense since Crosby, and Drouin makes Nugent-Hopkins look like the remedial class.

Nichushkin's biggest issue will be whether the KHL really wants to make a run at keeping him over here. They haven't had a star prospect like this in a while, someone who can excel in several facets of the game.

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03-25-2013, 12:10 AM
  #293
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I don't agree with your assessment of Nichushkin's hockey sense. I think it's extremely high, and I don't believe for a second that anything on the ice will prevent him from becoming an NHL star in the future.

The star of this year's draft in hockey sense will be Jonathan Drouin. He's got the type of off-the-charts IQ on the ice that anyone who's spent more than a day in hockey will fantasize about. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had the best sense since Crosby, and Drouin makes Nugent-Hopkins look like the remedial class.

Nichushkin's biggest issue will be whether the KHL really wants to make a run at keeping him over here. They haven't had a star prospect like this in a while, someone who can excel in several facets of the game.
I wasn't saying he doesn't have it, I was questioning whether he has it. But I just checked and there are indeed some new reports out on him that are answering the question positively, saying he has smarts and excellent vision. Question answered! I upgrade my view on Nichushkin substantially, which is really something because I already see him as having Nash/Malkin skating and strength.

Now I have a new question. Why isn't he a center? And if he's moved to center how good would he be? An elite winger isn't as valuable as an elite center of comparable scoring ability.

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03-25-2013, 12:30 AM
  #294
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Folks have been mentioning the Lightning as possible trade partners (actually they have been circling like vultures over that franchise), but I think the Lightning might be another team who would want to move in the draft if they are in the 2-6 range. They already have a great offence, and their forward prospect core looks good. It's the rest of the team that needs help.

I wonder if Yzerman would do:

3rd overall for Ryan Murray and a second rounder.

or

3rd overall for 9th overall + John Moore + Fedor Tyutin

That puts us back in Drouin/Mackinnon range, and both franchises rebalance themselves.

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03-25-2013, 12:35 AM
  #295
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Folks have been mentioning the Lightning as possible trade partners (actually they have been circling like vultures over that franchise), but I think the Lightning might be another team who would want to move in the draft if they are in the 2-6 range. They already have a great offence, and their forward prospect core looks good. It's the rest of the team that needs help.

I wonder if Yzerman would do:

3rd overall for Ryan Murray and a second rounder.

or

3rd overall for 9th overall + John Moore + Fedor Tyutin

That puts us back in Drouin/Mackinnon range, and both franchises rebalance themselves.
They don't have the cap space to take on 2 contracts without shedding any salary themselves.

I doubt they give up on Ryan Murray this early, too.

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03-25-2013, 12:50 AM
  #296
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They don't have the cap space to take on 2 contracts without shedding any salary themselves.

I doubt they give up on Ryan Murray this early, too.
Is it really "giving up" when you get Nathan Mackinnon or Johnathan Drouin in return?

I actually think Ryan Murray showed more high end skill and flash this year than he did in his draft year. And he might be even better after his recovery considering he was playing through pain the whole time. So I'm not advocating moving him for any other reason than the fact that you give up something to get something, and its all about balancing the lineup.

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03-25-2013, 01:06 AM
  #297
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They don't have the cap space to take on 2 contracts without shedding any salary themselves.

I doubt they give up on Ryan Murray this early, too.
Umm...can you say Lecavalier? Tampa keeps half of the salary and cap hit. Takes a big chunk of their cap problems off their hands, gives us a good player and a great pick. I know it'd never happen, and the value might not be quite equal (vinny is still a pretty impressive player at times) but its an interesting thought. (Plus, we can reunite the Vinnys )

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03-25-2013, 01:10 AM
  #298
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Ryan Murray is to good to not play in Columbus. He would take this team to the next level this year with all the ice time he would have seen..

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03-25-2013, 01:27 AM
  #299
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Umm...can you say Lecavalier? Tampa keeps half of the salary and cap hit. Takes a big chunk of their cap problems off their hands, gives us a good player and a great pick. I know it'd never happen, and the value might not be quite equal (vinny is still a pretty impressive player at times) but its an interesting thought. (Plus, we can reunite the Vinnys )
Thankfully for us it would never happen.

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03-25-2013, 01:30 AM
  #300
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Ryan Murray is too good to not play in Columbus. He would take this team to the next level this year with all the ice time he would have seen..
I love the guy but I bet he'd go 5th or 6th in this draft. And he wouldn't necessarily have much impact, this year or next. I can't imagine not swapping him for a top four pick in this draft if we were offered it.

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