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Old
03-22-2013, 11:03 AM
  #501
J17 Vs Proclamation
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
Flight risk is part of the Russian factor.

See Nikita Filatov.
Flight risk is the bigger issue.

Still, Filatov isn't good enough to be an NHL player. So, who cares? It's not as if Ottawa is missing a Top 6 Forward here.

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03-22-2013, 11:21 AM
  #502
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Originally Posted by JPG View Post
OK maybe I should elaborate my point - that he is unproven. And yes, that tends to apply to Russian prospects because they play alot less games than North American prospects. That's not ignorance, that is fact.
He only scored 2 points in 6 games in the world juniors. He's played a total of thirty games in the KHL scoring 12 points. I'm sorry, you want to spend the top draft pick on a guy who's only played enough to score 14 points in his career? (he does have some underage stuff but I don't think that is worth much to extrapolate to NHL).
Playing less games has a direct correlation to less proven? You're going to need to expand on that A LOT for it to have any meaning.

Your ignorance of European statistical data is somewhat alarming. Playing in the CHL and playing in the KHL are two entirely different beasts. The KHL is a very very tough league to crack for younger plays, nevermind produce. Nichushkins numbers are extremely pleasing. You'll find that the majority of high NHL Forwards drafted out of Europe don't have high production in their domestic leagues (If they play in it much at all) during their draft year. I get the feeling you understand the meaning of data and European hockey as much as i understand modern dance.

14 career points? As if this is the first year Nichushkin started to play hockey?

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Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Compare that to Mackinnon: 181 points in 119 games in the QMJHL, 1 point in 6 games in world juniors.
That's just one player, but the fact is players from Russia in particular play less games and have less exposure. While you CAN have a player that pans out, I find that many times they are overhyped because it is an 18 year old kid who is 6 ft 2 200 lbs and people like the size and possibilities without being able to do enough scouting on them. We have seen many amazing "practice" players that can show off for a scout but can't do anything when it counts. On the other hand, NCAA and CHL players have alot more games to show for themselves and one can make an educated decision.
It's difficult to formulate a starting point. I guess i may as well ramble like Alan Partridge.

Playing less games (As if these hockey players haven't played 1000 of games) means what exactly? That it makes a player better? No. That it makes a player more proven? No, because it takes no account of performance, the performances compared to peers and historical figures, and the environment the player performs in. That they have less exposure? Nichushkin has played in every top Junior international tournament and now, the 2nd best professional league on the planet. Nichushkin has been known about as a player since he was 13/14. If that isn't exposure, i don't know what is. Scouts are paid to project players. They have years worth of data on Nichushkin. If they need 10 more games of CHL data to form an opinion, i'm going to go out on a limb and say nepotism got them the job.

Just to re-iterate, Nichushkin was the best player at the U-17's (A tournament where the best of every nation plays at), the best at a recent U-18 event (Where multiple 1st round picks played at this year alone), played well at the U-20 and now plays good minutes on a stacked high level men's team. Exposure? Ahhh hell naw.

For the final smackdown, the NCAA plays a much smaller schedule than the CHL. Infact, the NCAA players a smaller schedule than European elite leagues. Junior aged players in Europe play many international games during their year, so their totals are well into the 60's and 70's. Finally, very few players are drafted directly out of the NCAA with first time eligibility, since fast-tracking to college at 17 isn't common.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Finally, please don't make assumptions about me - I don't appreciate you insinuating that I am ignorant. I do plenty of reading and research. I don't claim to be a scout by any means, just a passionate fan. I do appreciate the fact that it struck a chord since I said he was Russian, but hopefully I explained myself why I said that.
I actually didn't mean that you were ignorant, rather it was a comment regarding a trend. You absolutely are ignorant in regards to youth hockey, but i didn't mean to offend you. Sorry.

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03-22-2013, 12:33 PM
  #503
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Playing less games has a direct correlation to less proven? You're going to need to expand on that A LOT for it to have any meaning.

Your ignorance of European statistical data is somewhat alarming. Playing in the CHL and playing in the KHL are two entirely different beasts. The KHL is a very very tough league to crack for younger plays, nevermind produce. Nichushkins numbers are extremely pleasing. You'll find that the majority of high NHL Forwards drafted out of Europe don't have high production in their domestic leagues (If they play in it much at all) during their draft year. I get the feeling you understand the meaning of data and European hockey as much as i understand modern dance.

14 career points? As if this is the first year Nichushkin started to play hockey?



It's difficult to formulate a starting point. I guess i may as well ramble like Alan Partridge.

Playing less games (As if these hockey players haven't played 1000 of games) means what exactly? That it makes a player better? No. That it makes a player more proven? No, because it takes no account of performance, the performances compared to peers and historical figures, and the environment the player performs in. That they have less exposure? Nichushkin has played in every top Junior international tournament and now, the 2nd best professional league on the planet. Nichushkin has been known about as a player since he was 13/14. If that isn't exposure, i don't know what is. Scouts are paid to project players. They have years worth of data on Nichushkin. If they need 10 more games of CHL data to form an opinion, i'm going to go out on a limb and say nepotism got them the job.

Just to re-iterate, Nichushkin was the best player at the U-17's (A tournament where the best of every nation plays at), the best at a recent U-18 event (Where multiple 1st round picks played at this year alone), played well at the U-20 and now plays good minutes on a stacked high level men's team. Exposure? Ahhh hell naw.

For the final smackdown, the NCAA plays a much smaller schedule than the CHL. Infact, the NCAA players a smaller schedule than European elite leagues. Junior aged players in Europe play many international games during their year, so their totals are well into the 60's and 70's. Finally, very few players are drafted directly out of the NCAA with first time eligibility, since fast-tracking to college at 17 isn't common.



I actually didn't mean that you were ignorant, rather it was a comment regarding a trend. You absolutely are ignorant in regards to youth hockey, but i didn't mean to offend you. Sorry.
Excellent response. No matter what, you will run into the North American mentality that everything is better here. Why in the world would anyone consider playing in the AHL to be better than playing regular minutes in the KHL? The facilities are better, the competition is better, the pay is better, etc. Adjust to the North American game? give me a break... they will do that in 1 year tops once they come over here.

The other point the other poster fails to recognize is that in the KHL you are playing against men, where as in North America in juniors or NCAA, you are playing against boys. You think that does not make a difference? Nichushkin has cracked a stacked line-up as a 17 year old (granted, only playing 8-10 mins/game, which also affect his stats) And guess what too... he was just voted the best rookie of the KHL playoffs semifinals round http://en.khl.ru/news/2013/03/21/25107.html

There are several good prospects at the top of this draft worth picking. To eliminate one as a possibility because of unfounded stereotypes instead of his actual performance on the ice is nonsense.

Also, in an interview with McKeen's Hockey, he has stated his intentions of playing in the NHL:
Q & A with Valeri Nichushkin
By Randy Gorman On February 1, 2013 Add Comment
V Nichushkin
NHL teams will take comfort in hearing talented Russian forward Valeri Nichushkin is eager to get his North American career underway sooner rather than later.


Last edited by Chino Oscar: 03-22-2013 at 12:41 PM.
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Old
03-22-2013, 02:55 PM
  #504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
I actually didn't mean that you were ignorant, rather it was a comment regarding a trend. You absolutely are ignorant in regards to youth hockey, but i didn't mean to offend you. Sorry.
I don't really want to quote your whole post because of too much spam. I don't think what I am saying is unreasonable and I don't know why you don't understand it. Regardless of what you are evaluating (hockey, etc), if you watch someone perform a skill once, compared to watching someone else perform that same skill several times, you have a better idea of how the person will do if you evaluated multiple instances. I don't know if you have taken any statistics courses but there is such a thing called "power" of data, which involves larger sample sizes. The smaller the sample size, the less reliable the data. What I am saying is that in Russia they play WAY LESS GAMES and combined with the fact that it is far and the games are spaced out, it is much harder to scout those players well. I know you will say that is why we have a scouting department. Well that costs money, and if they spend as much money on our scouts as they do on our players I would worry about relying on small sample sizes from players scouted far away (and that goes for both my own evaluation of the player as a fan, as well as the team scouts). A second point is that the 14 points I stated where when he actually hit real competition. I don't consider under 17 to be reliable data for NHL projection; maybe you do, thats your opinion. I'm done with this discussion though, we can agree to disagree if you want.

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03-22-2013, 03:13 PM
  #505
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I don't think you understand statistics at all. Just to humour you, you realise you would be required to translate a formula that allows you to cross compare statistics from different leagues.





Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Regardless of what you are evaluating (hockey, etc), if you watch someone perform a skill once, compared to watching someone else perform that same skill several times, you have a better idea of how the person will do if you evaluated multiple instances.
Nichushkin and Mackinnon have played around the same number of games this year. Both players were dominant within their age groups growing up, both players have been known internationally for a few years.

Scouts have watched these players countless times. You seem to think that Russia is the magical mysterical land far far away. That for some reason, a high end men's league isn't worth bothering about. That we should simply look to the good old North American boys. News Flash ; most organisations have regional scouts for Russia/Eastern Europe. News Flash ; all scouting directors/veteran scouts in NHL organisations will have made the effort to see Nichushkin countless times.

You're so uninformed it's actually bizarre.



Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
I don't know if you have taken any statistics courses but there is such a thing called "power" of data, which involves larger sample sizes. The smaller the sample size, the less reliable the data. What I am saying is that in Russia they play WAY LESS GAMES and combined with the fact that it is far and the games are spaced out, it is much harder to scout those players well. I know you will say that is why we have a scouting department.
You don't understand data. You apparently cannot even read data. Nichushkin and Mackinnon have played roughly the same total of games this season. Both players have been prominent in other major junior tournaments both this year and last that all scouts watch.

Secondly, after 50+ odd games of hockey in a year, scouts will have watched Nichushkin enough to have a handle. Some will love him, some will not. Small sample size this is not. It's also clear you have absolutely no understand of how scouts operate, where they go, and the logic they apply.




Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
Well that costs money, and if they spend as much money on our scouts as they do on our players I would worry about relying on small sample sizes from players scouted far away (and that goes for both my own evaluation of the player as a fan, as well as the team scouts).
So you've moved your argument from small sample size to money? I'd respect your ignorant uninformed opinion more if you came out and simply declared your CHL/North American bias, rather than a thinly veiled attempt to embroil your lunacy in the shambles written above.

Scouting is imperative to NHL organisations. It's the fundamental building block. Travel costs to see high end 17 year old players ain't an issue. I can assure you NHL teams will have seen plenty of Nichushkin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPG View Post
A second point is that the 14 points I stated where when he actually hit real competition. I don't consider under 17 to be reliable data for NHL projection; maybe you do, thats your opinion. I'm done with this discussion though, we can agree to disagree if you want.
He's a 17 year old playing in an exceptionally high level league, playing relatively sheltered minutes. What on earth do you expect? Not withstanding you're comparing statistics that cannot be compared (CHL data to KHL data) without a cross comparison system for the data to have any merit. That ignores the salient fact that statistics to scouts aren't the be all and end all anyway. Scouts don't sit at home eating hotdogs looking at hockeydb.com.

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03-23-2013, 12:25 AM
  #506
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Originally Posted by J17 Vs Proclamation View Post
Then the risk is the same as with Barkov, Lindholm and other European players? Since we do not know their intentions, we can assume there is minimal risk that they do not come over.

Of course i'm being a tad facetious, since this is a discussion framed within Russian misconceptions and anxities. Still, there isn't a ton of evidence to show that as a rule, Russian elite players are difficult to get over. So ...

This is a different discussion, and i won't go into it in this thread. I'd only end up ranting.

Yes, the flight risk is definitely something that needs to be factored in. It's actually the bigger problem, by far. This is where player development comes in. Some organisations excel in it. Some don't.

The question is pointless because it is framed within a set of incredibly unrealistic parameters. Indeed, these set list of rules can be manipulated to get more and more ridiculous, until it really isn't a question worth asking yourself.

What you're discussing is character homework. This is pretty important. If you don't like the character, don't draft him. If he seems flakey, don't draft him. Filatov IMO played a large part in his downfall. Columbus didn't manage him very well, but also didn't do a very good job of realising this might happen.

I've yet to see anybody give any competent argument to counter the idea that getting elite Russian players over to North America is an issue. You may have to wait an extra or two, for various reasons, but then as Craig Button says on one of his recent podcasts, your drafting an NHL career, not who can achieve the fastest erection.
I don't have the stamina that you have to continue this debate, so I will just leave it simply as this...

I am 100% certain that throughout Mackinnon, Drouin, or Jones' careers, they will be playing in North America. 100%, no doubt, they will be playing in the NHL from when they are 18 year-old rookies to 40-year old vets.

I am not 100% certain that Nichuskin will play in North America his entire career. I am not saying that this is not their plan, or that they won't play their entire careers here. All I am saying is that I am not 100% certain.

That is why people cite the "Russian factor" or whatever you want to call it. This also applies to other European players, but to a lesser degree because the KHL is a Russian league and is able to pay top dollar.

Anyways, I know you will still disagree with me and that is fine. We will just have to agree to disagree.


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Old
03-23-2013, 08:50 AM
  #507
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Jeez, while someone should stop making stupid AH comments and telling people what they do and dont understand...I agree with him.

Seriously J17, you usually make excellent points but always have to throw some crap insult...where is 0g anyway?

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03-23-2013, 12:12 PM
  #508
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I'm still for an offensive player first. I'm going:

Mac
Drouin
Barkov (taking other's words for it)
Jones

-ghoste

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03-23-2013, 02:17 PM
  #509
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Possibly future faces of the Florida Panthers:



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03-23-2013, 02:21 PM
  #510
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Jeez, while someone should stop making stupid AH comments and telling people what they do and dont understand...I agree with him.

Seriously J17, you usually make excellent points but always have to throw some crap insult...where is 0g anyway?
someone called?

that was the old zero. now i just make excellent points

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03-23-2013, 02:44 PM
  #511
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someone called?

that was the old zero. now i just make excellent points
On games you never watch.

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03-23-2013, 09:54 PM
  #512
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Possibly future faces of the Florida Panthers:


I'm down with that. If we have the #1 pick we need to draft MacKinnon. If we want a defensemen we can draft him in the second round. That would be #31. That's a perfect spot to draft a defensemen anyways. A defensemen drafted in the second round (and a high second at #31 too) has just as much chance at becoming a #1 D as any defensemen you will draft. Seeing Huberdeau make passes that his teammates simply don't have the skill to do anything with is frustrating. We need a lot more skill on this team. MacKinnon would help in that area.


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03-24-2013, 01:31 AM
  #513
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someone called?

that was the old zero. now i just make excellent points
Ey!! Lol ill go out on a limb and say i might not be the only one who noticed
Decide to watch this year? U might be jinxin the whole damn thing :p

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03-24-2013, 01:32 AM
  #514
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On games you never watch.
I swear i didnt see this before i.posted :/

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03-24-2013, 08:55 AM
  #515
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I wouldn't rule out Jones to be honest.
If we pick at #3 and he's still there, Tallon's gonna pull the trigger no doubt.

We're not picking #1, no way. Would be too good to be true.

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03-24-2013, 09:06 AM
  #516
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Barkov 0+3=3, +3 and 2 PIM in 3 games. Tappara leads the series against HIFK 3-0 and they've rested Barkov a lot during the games.

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03-24-2013, 10:56 AM
  #517
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Barkov 0+3=3, +3 and 2 PIM in 3 games. Tappara leads the series against HIFK 3-0 and they've rested Barkov a lot during the games.
Nice, thanks for the update.

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03-24-2013, 01:21 PM
  #518
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Last night was the 20th time this season that this team scored 2 or less goals..

Let's draft some more defense..


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03-24-2013, 10:16 PM
  #519
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Apparently, Tallon went to the Halifax/St. John games on Friday & Saturday. Hope he got some good looks.

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03-25-2013, 07:38 AM
  #520
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http://metronews.ca/sports/608308/fl...nathan-drouin/

heres a link talking about it ghoste

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03-25-2013, 07:48 AM
  #521
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I'm sure Tallon will be going to a lot more junior games over the next couple months than NHL games. The Memorial Cup could(and probably will)feature both Portland(Jones) and Halifax(MacKinnon,Drouin).

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03-25-2013, 08:35 AM
  #522
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http://metronews.ca/sports/608308/fl...nathan-drouin/

heres a link talking about it ghoste
That's the one I seen, thanks bud! I just posted from my phone so I didn't include the link.

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03-25-2013, 08:36 AM
  #523
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I said this before but might as well reiterate..There's a potential franchise center out there in the draft (MacKinnon). It would be silly not to take him. As good as our prospect pool is, we have no one with elite skill besides Huberdeau coming out of there.

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03-25-2013, 08:39 AM
  #524
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Originally Posted by Markstrom Rules View Post
I'm sure Tallon will be going to a lot more junior games over the next couple months than NHL games. The Memorial Cup could(and probably will)feature both Portland(Jones) and Halifax(MacKinnon,Drouin).
Wonder if he'd come over for the World Champs if Barkov and others get chosen for their respective national teams?

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03-25-2013, 09:00 AM
  #525
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Wonder if he'd come over for the World Champs if Barkov and others get chosen for their respective national teams?
I'm sure someone from the Panthers will be there, if not Tallon. GMs usually go to the WC though.

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