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Alain Vigneault/Coaching Discussion Repository - Part V

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Old
03-25-2013, 11:50 AM
  #26
putridgasbag
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i see it as a big gamble. there are a few examples of a new coach being brought in mid-to-late-season and the team going on a big run and winning the cup (sutter last year, bylsma in pittsburgh, and farther back larry robinson in NJ though robinson and that team were familiar with one another from a previous stint). but there's probably an 75% or higher chance that it'll fail miserably.

i guess the question is, how small is the chance that AV can get it done this year? if that chance is smaller than the chance of a new guy prospering, however small that second chance might be, then i'd say do it. texas hold'em logic, so to speak.

personally, i think the chances of us contending with AV this year (or any subsequent year, barring a major change in his coaching style, philosophy, and methodology) is so miniscule that i'd roll the dice with a new guy.
Really? So back to back presidents trophies, one win from the cup and currently 3rd in the conference and you think that he is crap. Man this place is so full of the grass is greener types. What besides one more win a couple of seasons ago would it take to convince you that he is a good coach? Since you seem to think a new guy... who and why?

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03-25-2013, 11:51 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Fat Tony View Post
Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
Not reading too much into this one way or the other, but Jon Cooper is currently on the ice running Syracuse Crunch practice.
What would there be to read into there?

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03-25-2013, 11:58 AM
  #28
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What would there be to read into there?
That he wasn't tapped to be the TB's new head coach.

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Old
03-25-2013, 12:02 PM
  #29
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That he wasn't tapped to be the TB's new head coach.
You'll have to excuse me, sometimes I look past the obvious.

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03-25-2013, 12:13 PM
  #30
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Really? So back to back presidents trophies, one win from the cup and currently 3rd in the conference and you think that he is crap. Man this place is so full of the grass is greener types. What besides one more win a couple of seasons ago would it take to convince you that he is a good coach? Since you seem to think a new guy... who and why?
i think the distinction many of us are making is that what has produced success in the past may not in fact produce those same results moving forward. almost every coach, even the best ones, get fired at one point or another. that could be for a number of reasons: gets tuned out, the league figures out his system and he's slow to or can't adapt, he has a demonstrable ceiling with that team and GM wants to roll the dice that some new guy's ceiling is higher. whether one, or all, of those applies to AV is up for debate. but the question is not whether he is or is not a "good coach" in the absolute sense. it's whether he's the right coach for this team at this point in time and for the foreseeable future to take it as far as it can go.

and the substance of that post of mine you quoted was explicitly not that the grass is greener. i was saying, the grass might be greener but there's a 75% or higher chance that it in fact is not. but it's a gamble i'd take because i think the chances of AV making this work are even lower.


- - -


as for candidates, on a temporary basis one guy is ruff. again, probably wouldn't work, but i think our guys need a kick in the rear that a gruff (pardon the pun) western canadian guy like lindy would offer. also, he has had a lot of success with a roster (buffalo, '06 and '07) that had a similar distribution of talent to ours when both are healthy (scoring depth, elite two-way second line center, third line that can provide timely scoring, deep puck moving/rushing D with no true number one). also, he can and is willing to coach an up tempo game that i think will maximize our roster's abilities. and, at least back in the briere years, he showed that he was able to adjust his gameplan depending on matchups and when forced to due to injuries. that '06 sabres team was missing four of its top six defensemen -- down to its #2 and #6 guys -- and still pushed the eventual champs to seven games. they had a freaking lead going into the third period of game seven before young campbell broke down from playing way too many minutes and they lost the game going up against carolina's historically lethal PP with campbell in the box and relying on rory (yes rory) to help kill that penalty.

cooper, i know less about. if he's as good and promising as people say he is, then yeah go for it. it's a good play for future years, not just to throw a hail mary to salvage this one. but i can't legitimately make a call on that one because i don't know him.

but this is actually what i'd like to do, which i mentioned in the last AV thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by me from yesterday
if yzerman would be willing to let him go for an assistant job, and if boucher would be willing to take it (with the understanding that he's auditioning for either AV's job or a head coaching job somewhere else for next year), then that's a really nice play.

fire bones and brown, hire boucher for the PP and promote someone from the wolves for the year (i'm guessing that the guy who handles their D is nolan b.) at the end of the year, assess what you have and decide whether it's AV or boucher, and if it's boucher you let him bring in his own people. if it's AV, then the gamble to cut his guys and light a fire under his butt paid off. boucher probably then moves on to a head coaching job somewhere else.

oh, and end of the year, baumgartner (of foligno or whomever) goes back to chicago for more seasoning unless the guy was a revelation.
and the impossible dream: if babcock ends up getting fired (very unlikely right now) i don't see how you don't push through every other GM in the league and do whatever you can to sign him on the spot.

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Old
03-25-2013, 12:15 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by putridgasbag View Post
Standing a dman 30 feet in front of your net, lining 3 guys up at your blue line and one guy at centre.... man that team must have been really slow. People are *****ing around here about a coach who reverts to a d posture (like most coaches) when they have a lead and the solution is a coach who thought of that?!?!? Heck TB wasn't even in the lead when they were doing crap like that. Meh... Grass is always greener.
And yet they managed to win that game. Boucher attempted to make due with an awful blueline and equally lackluster goaltending. 1-3-1 was a temporary ploy that could not be sustained once teams refused to play into the trap mentality. People are less critical of Boucher right now because he has nothing but offense to work with. Give him the likes our defense and goaltending and he could very well have us emulating the Caps of old, just with a vastly superior back end.

Boucher is an offensive minded coach. You do not hire him with a terrible defense squad and expect miracles. Stevie Y thought otherwise.

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03-25-2013, 12:26 PM
  #32
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It's hilarious that a bunch of us called we would actually get better by having more key forwards hurt. All of a sudden, for the most part, our defense actually looks comfortable out there and that's because our team defense is back. I can only hope that our D can continue to play like this as we get more and more healthy. I actually hope they turn Kesler into the shutdown C for awhile and keep the speed line together.

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Old
03-25-2013, 12:35 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Tony View Post
That he wasn't tapped to be the TB's new head coach.
Was some talk on Twitter that Yzerman wants a more experienced coach this time around, and likes Ruff due to his Team Canada experience.

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03-25-2013, 02:17 PM
  #34
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Now that Guy Boucher is fired, hopefully AV will be fired soon as well

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03-25-2013, 02:18 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Also, you can't argue with empirical evidence, apparently no coach tenured as long as AV has ever won the Cup for the first time with his team...I don't pretend to know why, but why fight empirical evidence when there are great alternatives available.
I don't intend to pick on you, since lots of people have been citing the above claim, but without any context I think this falls way short of being persuasive empirical evidence. Here's what I would want to know before leaning too much on that claim.

(1) Sample size: how many coaches have coached into their 7th season with a team, without having won a cup in seasons 1-6? How many total seasons beyond their 6th have been coached by coaches in that situation?

(2) Comparison group: For each coach who coached a team 7+ years without winning a cup, how did their immediate successors do? How many seasons did they last as coach and how many total cups were won? Do any of those situations look at all comparable to the Canucks' situation?

Can anyone compile this info, or have it already at hand?

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Old
03-25-2013, 02:27 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
I think it depends on the coach we get, and if they are the right fit. I could see us going on a long run, we really aren't that much different a team from the 11 team. But we could just as easily be bounced in the first round. some may also have to do with injuries as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
i see it as a big gamble. there are a few examples of a new coach being brought in mid-to-late-season and the team going on a big run and winning the cup (sutter last year, bylsma in pittsburgh, and farther back larry robinson in NJ though robinson and that team were familiar with one another from a previous stint). but there's probably an 75% or higher chance that it'll fail miserably.

i guess the question is, how small is the chance that AV can get it done this year? if that chance is smaller than the chance of a new guy prospering, however small that second chance might be, then i'd say do it. texas hold'em logic, so to speak.

personally, i think the chances of us contending with AV this year (or any subsequent year, barring a major change in his coaching style, philosophy, and methodology) is so miniscule that i'd roll the dice with a new guy.
thanks for the answers.

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Old
03-25-2013, 02:46 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by The Stovepipe Cup View Post
So this is where we give props to AV for coaching the team to 6-2-0 in the past 8 games despite a horrific injury bug spread across the lineup, right? Or am I doing this wrong.

Part 4: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1371677


Good adjustment on placing Higgins with the Sedin's though. Seemed to have jump-started his game. He looked dangerous and active out there. Hopefully it carries on.
Quote:
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Are you kidding me? AV lost 2 games because he was clearly outcoached. Fire AV and hire Boucher, Guy Boucher.
You can't be "outcoached" when you have Ebbett, Pinnizotto and Gordon in your line-up. Winning 6 of 8 with those guys in the line-up is deffinately "outcoaching" the opposing team.

Some people just hate AV so much that they give him no credit for anything.

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Old
03-25-2013, 02:49 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Royal Canuck View Post
You can't be "outcoached" when you have Ebbett, Pinnizotto and Gordon in your line-up. Winning 6 of 8 with those guys in the line-up is deffinately "outcoaching" the opposing team.

Some people just hate AV so much that they give him no credit for anything.
well, no, it's probably a lot of luck. i dont think its supreme coaching to beat up the colorado avalanche anyways

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03-25-2013, 04:14 PM
  #39
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I'd like to see a Tanev - Garrison pairing tomorrow night on the powerplay.

Garrison is only effective if he just keeps on shooting the puck non stop (see the Campbell - Garrison years). Tanev is sure as hell not gonna shoot and has a decent pass. He's also smart enough to make those plays happen.

Thoughts?

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Old
03-25-2013, 04:18 PM
  #40
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well, no, it's probably a lot of luck. i dont think its supreme coaching to beat up the colorado avalanche anyways
That and a greater portion of solid goaltending. You'll always have a chance if your goalie outplays the other goalie (barring not that many Ballard or Alberts gaffes....).

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Old
03-25-2013, 04:27 PM
  #41
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That and a greater portion of solid goaltending. You'll always have a chance if your goalie outplays the other goalie (barring not that many Ballard or Alberts gaffes....).
err, yeah that too.

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Old
03-25-2013, 04:48 PM
  #42
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Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 1m

Piling on to the speculation...expect Tampa Bay to announce Jon Cooper as head coach as early as tomorrow


That was kind of obvious.

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Old
03-25-2013, 05:05 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by palefire View Post
I don't intend to pick on you, since lots of people have been citing the above claim, but without any context I think this falls way short of being persuasive empirical evidence. Here's what I would want to know before leaning too much on that claim.

(1) Sample size: how many coaches have coached into their 7th season with a team, without having won a cup in seasons 1-6? How many total seasons beyond their 6th have been coached by coaches in that situation?

(2) Comparison group: For each coach who coached a team 7+ years without winning a cup, how did their immediate successors do? How many seasons did they last as coach and how many total cups were won? Do any of those situations look at all comparable to the Canucks' situation?

Can anyone compile this info, or have it already at hand?
Using the more than 5 year time frame most people refer to, here are the more recent coaches (30 years or so) that I was able to find with a quick search who didn't win a cup with their team:

Lemaire (MIN)
Quinn (TOR)
Martin (OTT)
B. Murray (WSH)
Quenneville (STL)
Crawford (VAN)
Ruff (BUF)
Maurice (CAR)
Tippett (DAL)
MacTavish (EDM)
A. Murray (LAK)


And then two active coaches:

Trotz (NSH)
Vigneault (VAN)


Carolina is really the only team on that list to win the cup after changing coaches. LA did as well, but that was 6 years later with a completely different team and after they'd already gone through Crawford and T. Murray in the interim.

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Old
03-25-2013, 06:16 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by VanCanucks17 View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 1m

Piling on to the speculation...expect Tampa Bay to announce Jon Cooper as head coach as early as tomorrow


That was kind of obvious.
yeah. here's an article:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=419104

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Old
03-25-2013, 07:26 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Using the more than 5 year time frame most people refer to, here are the more recent coaches (30 years or so) that I was able to find with a quick search who didn't win a cup with their team: [...] Carolina is really the only team on that list to win the cup after changing coaches. LA did as well, but that was 6 years later with a completely different team and after they'd already gone through Crawford and T. Murray in the interim.
Thanks opendoor. In fact I went ahead and did the research too, and came up with the same list you did. Going back a bit further there were just a couple of additional examples in the post-expansion era: Michel Bergeron (QUE, 1980-87) and Billy Reay (CHI, 1963-1976), and again their immediate successors didn't win the cup -- a wait of 9 years for QUE/COL, and 34 for CHI.

The good news is that the original premise isn't true. Jack Adams started coaching Detroit in 1927, coached them continuously into the 1940s, and won his first cup in 1936. (They weren't renamed Red Wings until 1932, but it was the same franchise.) Fine, that was a while ago!

Of the 13 coaches we've mentioned in the post-expansion era, there were a total of 48 "excess" seasons beyond the fifth year. Of those, 19 are accounted for by two coaches: Ruff in Buffalo (1997-2013) and Billy Reay.

I looked at the dozen coaches that immediately succeeded those coaches (giving Buffalo an incomplete for this season). Those successors coached a total of 31 seasons -- almost all for no more
than two years, except for Laviolette (CAR), Terry Murray (WAS), and AV. Those 31 seasons produced a total of 1 cup.

Unfortunately, 1 cup in 31 seasons vs no cups in 48 seasons is not a whole lot better than statistical noise. I don't think you can draw any reasonable conclusions based on this line of argument.

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Old
03-25-2013, 09:19 PM
  #46
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i think the conclusion that you can draw is:

coaches coach teams that sometimes win cups, and sometimes dont. replacing a coach because of an arbitrary number of years is at its very best ignoring the team, players, management and dressing room in favour of a magic bullet, and at its worst direct sabotage of the team

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Old
03-26-2013, 02:00 AM
  #47
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so canucks are winning games with 2 4th lines, and jon cooper just got hired to coach the lightning. guess this whole fire av thing has to go on the backburner until the next losing streak starts.

but when it does, i'm firing up the LARRY ROBINSON bandwagon.

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03-26-2013, 02:02 AM
  #48
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so canucks are winning games with 2 4th lines, and jon cooper just got hired to coach the lightning. guess this whole fire av thing has to go on the backburner until the next losing streak starts.

but when it does, i'm firing up the LARRY ROBINSON bandwagon.
Why not go after Don Cherry?

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Old
03-26-2013, 02:05 AM
  #49
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so canucks are winning games with 2 4th lines, and jon cooper just got hired to coach the lightning. guess this whole fire av thing has to go on the backburner until the next losing streak starts.

but when it does, i'm firing up the LARRY ROBINSON bandwagon.
Stupid Yzerman took perhaps the best potential name off the market. Cooper would have been amazing here.

Oh, and for this fan, fire AV will always be on the front burner. Losing streak, winning streak, or otherwise. It how the team plays that is the issue with him, not their results, which have toggled on a razor thin margin.

I'd be fine with Babcock or Boucher.

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03-26-2013, 02:10 AM
  #50
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Stupid Yzerman took perhaps the best potential name off the market. Cooper would have been amazing here.

Oh, and for this fan, fire AV will always be on the front burner. Losing streak, winning streak, or otherwise. It how the team plays that is the issue with him, not their results, which have toggled on a razor thin margin.

I'd be fine with Babcock or Boucher.
i'd love babcock too, the problem is you'd probably have to luck into hiring him...he'd be out of a job for about as long as bruce boudreau was

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