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2013 Draft Discussion (Mar. 29 article, post #976)

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Old
03-26-2013, 10:46 AM
  #851
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
Jones also plays on a loaded Portland Winterhawks team. I would love to see what Nurse can do on a team that sports three one hundred point scorers and three sixty point scorers. In comparison, Nurse plays on a team with one one hundred point scorer and two sixty point scorers.

As for Nurse, he's right up there with Jones in terms of offensive ability. Nurse chose to be the shut down defender in the Soo this year and he still put up 40 points. He's considerably more physical than Jones and he's significantly a better defender.

I'm not harping on Jones, but the overrating that's going on with regards to Jones is borderline ridiculous. He's a fantastic player, but the difference between Jones and Nurse has closed significantly to the point that Nurse is considered by some scouting services to be possibly the number 2 player and depending on a Sault Ste Marie playoff run, could be the number one guy by the time all is said and done.

Funny story about Nurse. When the junior hockey year started, he wasn't even rated by ISS or CSB or any of the major scouting services. As of now, he's climbed to number 5. The only other person to see a ratings jump like that? Claude Giroux was the last guy who wasn't rated when his draft year started and climbed all the way to 24 by the time the season ended.
Both look like great players but if it were me, I would still choose some of the top end forwards ahead of them. Defensemen are so hard to predict at the NHL level because the number one characteristic of a elite NHL defensemen is decision making. Being able to make decisions at the speed of the NHL is impossible to predict because the pace of the lower levels in nowhere near that of the NHL. For every Doughty, OEL, and Piertangelo that was picked in the top 10 that have turned into franchise defensemen, there is Jack and Erik Johnson, Coburn, Bouwmeester, and Bogasian, decent defensemen but not franchise worthy. Also notice that a lot of those high picked defensemen are on their 2nd team bye now. When you choose a defensemen high, fans and the organization expect almost immediate results. Most struggle and end up traded. Even Pronger didn't prosper until he was on his 2nd team. Forwards tend to be easier to predict and the Flyers are especially good a recognizing talent at that position. With the amount of great defensemen that have come out of later rounds versus the dearth of great offensive players that have come later, I would choose forward first and 5-6 defensemen after. Maybe throw in a goaltender too.

Now with that being said, if the Flyers win the lottery they have to take Seth Jones or there would be a full fledge riot against management. Just be prepared for him to struggle for a few years at a bare minimum while the forwards chosen after him have almost immediate success. I would only choose Nurse if the top 5 forwards are off the boards: Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan (Nichuskin has zero chance of being picked by the Flyers sadly).

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03-26-2013, 10:55 AM
  #852
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Now with that being said, if the Flyers win the lottery they have to take Seth Jones or there would be a full fledge riot against management. Just be prepared for him to struggle for a few years at a bare minimum while the forwards chosen after him have almost immediate success. I would only choose Nurse if the top 5 forwards are off the boards: Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan (Nichuskin has zero chance of being picked by the Flyers sadly).
Didn't Pronger and Chara struggle when they initially came into the league so yeah it definitely takes some adjustment for a D man so I would be prepared with Jones. The key is to get him and then use one of our other younger players to land a strong complementary D man with experience.

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03-26-2013, 11:10 AM
  #853
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Didn't Pronger and Chara struggle when they initially came into the league so yeah it definitely takes some adjustment for a D man so I would be prepared with Jones. The key is to get him and then use one of our other younger players to land a strong complementary D man with experience.
Both did struggle. Defensemen don't really hit their prime until their late 20's/early 30's. that's not to say Jones won't have an impact for that long. He could be another Doughty or Karlson but they didn't have a big impact until there fourth season. If the Flyers do take him, they would be smart to sign a veteran defensemen like Hainsey, who is more of a defensive defensemen at this point, to pair with him for a few years while he gets up to speed.

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03-26-2013, 11:22 AM
  #854
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Both look like great players but if it were me, I would still choose some of the top end forwards ahead of them. Defensemen are so hard to predict at the NHL level because the number one characteristic of a elite NHL defensemen is decision making. Being able to make decisions at the speed of the NHL is impossible to predict because the pace of the lower levels in nowhere near that of the NHL. For every Doughty, OEL, and Piertangelo that was picked in the top 10 that have turned into franchise defensemen, there is Jack and Erik Johnson, Coburn, Bouwmeester, and Bogasian, decent defensemen but not franchise worthy. Also notice that a lot of those high picked defensemen are on their 2nd team bye now. When you choose a defensemen high, fans and the organization expect almost immediate results. Most struggle and end up traded. Even Pronger didn't prosper until he was on his 2nd team. Forwards tend to be easier to predict and the Flyers are especially good a recognizing talent at that position. With the amount of great defensemen that have come out of later rounds versus the dearth of great offensive players that have come later, I would choose forward first and 5-6 defensemen after. Maybe throw in a goaltender too.

Now with that being said, if the Flyers win the lottery they have to take Seth Jones or there would be a full fledge riot against management. Just be prepared for him to struggle for a few years at a bare minimum while the forwards chosen after him have almost immediate success. I would only choose Nurse if the top 5 forwards are off the boards: Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan (Nichuskin has zero chance of being picked by the Flyers sadly).
I completely agree. I would not be disappointed with Jones, or Nurse, but I'd prefer a game breaking forward. I like what I've seen from Drouin the most, but Mackinnon makes sense as a fit with Giroux.

Honestly this is why I really wanted to move Danny and several others at the deadline. If he could get a first I think it could be used to acquire a young defenseman, something like prospect + 1st for Rundblad or whoever, or have backup picks to offset the blow of a potential offer sheet. Then you'd wind up with Drouin/Mackinnon/Barkov and a young, all be it not #1, Dman.

The team's forward core is built for the future but their star is in his prime right now. By the time Jones would likely be ready to be a #1 Grioux would be around 30. If you take a dman you have to hope you drafted a Karlsson or Pietrangelo, otherwise you could very well see him being sold low in 3 years.


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03-26-2013, 12:27 PM
  #855
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First time poster here.

I fully believe Jones is the next big thing on D. That being said, it will be quite some time before he even begins to scratch the surface of his full potential, as others here have noted. Last year, Doughty became the first defenseman drafted in the top 10 to win the Cup within five years of being drafted since Niedermayer in '95. Granted, players drafted that high are often joining poor teams. But I'd assume the Flyers would be more likely to seek their much-needed stud defenseman via trade than through the draft.

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03-26-2013, 01:01 PM
  #856
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Both look like great players but if it were me, I would still choose some of the top end forwards ahead of them. Defensemen are so hard to predict at the NHL level because the number one characteristic of a elite NHL defensemen is decision making. Being able to make decisions at the speed of the NHL is impossible to predict because the pace of the lower levels in nowhere near that of the NHL. For every Doughty, OEL, and Piertangelo that was picked in the top 10 that have turned into franchise defensemen, there is Jack and Erik Johnson, Coburn, Bouwmeester, and Bogasian, decent defensemen but not franchise worthy. Also notice that a lot of those high picked defensemen are on their 2nd team bye now. When you choose a defensemen high, fans and the organization expect almost immediate results. Most struggle and end up traded. Even Pronger didn't prosper until he was on his 2nd team. Forwards tend to be easier to predict and the Flyers are especially good a recognizing talent at that position. With the amount of great defensemen that have come out of later rounds versus the dearth of great offensive players that have come later, I would choose forward first and 5-6 defensemen after. Maybe throw in a goaltender too.

Now with that being said, if the Flyers win the lottery they have to take Seth Jones or there would be a full fledge riot against management. Just be prepared for him to struggle for a few years at a bare minimum while the forwards chosen after him have almost immediate success. I would only choose Nurse if the top 5 forwards are off the boards: Drouin, Mackinnon, Barkov, Lindholm, and Monahan (Nichuskin has zero chance of being picked by the Flyers sadly).
Oh, I totally understand where you're coming from. My point was that everyone seems to think that Jones is the be all end all with regards to this year's draft and it's simply not true. The difference between Jones and Nurse is no longer a great divide and that if in the proper environment, Nurse might actually surpass Jones. The reality is that Nurse is catching up to Jones in the eyes of numerous scouts and he's closed the gap considerably.

As for forwards, yep, gotta agree that it's easier to draft, develop and watch forwards become game breakers than it is with defensemen. Defensemen and goaltenders are significantly harder to predict simply because it's usually a five to six year window where as forwards are usually a 3 to 4 year window.

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03-26-2013, 01:24 PM
  #857
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I don't care which of the top d-man we get in the draft. I just want to come out with any one of Jones, Nurse, Zadarov, or Rist. Of course, I would also take one of Drouin, MacKinnon, but if the Flyers take one of them over Jones or Nurse they better have one hell of a trade on the table for a young d-man with potential.

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03-26-2013, 01:37 PM
  #858
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Jones also plays on a loaded Portland Winterhawks team. I would love to see what Nurse can do on a team that sports three one hundred point scorers and three sixty point scorers. In comparison, Nurse plays on a team with one one hundred point scorer and two sixty point scorers.

As for Nurse, he's right up there with Jones in terms of offensive ability. Nurse chose to be the shut down defender in the Soo this year and he still put up 40 points. He's considerably more physical than Jones and he's significantly a better defender.

I'm not harping on Jones, but the overrating that's going on with regards to Jones is borderline ridiculous. He's a fantastic player, but the difference between Jones and Nurse has closed significantly to the point that Nurse is considered by some scouting services to be possibly the number 2 player and depending on a Sault Ste Marie playoff run, could be the number one guy by the time all is said and done.

Funny story about Nurse. When the junior hockey year started, he wasn't even rated by ISS or CSB or any of the major scouting services. As of now, he's climbed to number 5. The only other person to see a ratings jump like that? Claude Giroux was the last guy who wasn't rated when his draft year started and climbed all the way to 24 by the time the season ended.
So why is Jones considered by most to be easily the better prospect than Nurse? Just hype? Just because Nurse came out of nowhere? I'm not saying you're wrong because you've probably seen more of both than I have, I'm just curous. I'll admit I've seen Jones play 5-6 times this season and Nurse just once. I only ask because you say Nurse is almost on par as far as offense but he's more physical and a significantly better defender than Jones. It seems that if that were the general consensus that Nurse would be easily the better prospect. I want either of these guys and if either are available when they pick, i hope they grab one.

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03-26-2013, 02:45 PM
  #859
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I don't care which of the top d-man we get in the draft. I just want to come out with any one of Jones, Nurse, Zadarov, or Rist. Of course, I would also take one of Drouin, MacKinnon, but if the Flyers take one of them over Jones or Nurse they better have one hell of a trade on the table for a young d-man with potential.
I'm beginning to think that the best-case scenario for the Flyers organization might be to have a higher-rated forward fall to them. I just don't believe that the team will have the patience required to properly develop a defenseman. Bolstering the forward corps and, in turn, flipping a center for a more developed defenseman might offer the best way forward.

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03-26-2013, 04:30 PM
  #860
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First time poster here.

I fully believe Jones is the next big thing on D. That being said, it will be quite some time before he even begins to scratch the surface of his full potential, as others here have noted. Last year, Doughty became the first defenseman drafted in the top 10 to win the Cup within five years of being drafted since Niedermayer in '95. Granted, players drafted that high are often joining poor teams. But I'd assume the Flyers would be more likely to seek their much-needed stud defenseman via trade than through the draft.
First-time poster?? Who let YOU in???!??

Seriously, though, welcome. It's my fear, too, that the Flyers organization -- including we fans -- are too ADHD to enjoy watching a player develop into his potential. Exhibit A:



But you have to start somewhere, and it's about time the Flyers actually had very good prospects on the Phantoms. I'm coming to terms with them choosing Nurse, and I like the idea of him becoming the top-pairing Dman in Adirondack/Glens Falls.

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03-26-2013, 04:39 PM
  #861
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F I'm coming to terms with them choosing Nurse, and I like the idea of him becoming the top-pairing Dman in Adirondack/Glens Falls.
Nurse would have 1-2 more seasons in the OHL, right?

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03-26-2013, 04:47 PM
  #862
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So why is Jones considered by most to be easily the better prospect than Nurse? Just hype? Just because Nurse came out of nowhere? I'm not saying you're wrong because you've probably seen more of both than I have, I'm just curous. I'll admit I've seen Jones play 5-6 times this season and Nurse just once. I only ask because you say Nurse is almost on par as far as offense but he's more physical and a significantly better defender than Jones. It seems that if that were the general consensus that Nurse would be easily the better prospect. I want either of these guys and if either are available when they pick, i hope they grab one.
Honestly, I think right now with Jones, he plays on a team that's going to challenge for the Memorial Cup and he's played on a world junior championship team. To me, I think the hype machine is in overdrive with Jones. He's playing on a loaded Portland team and he played on a loaded U.S. team (as much as people say Canada was a loaded team, that U.S. team had a boatload of talent as well). With that kind of talent, it's easy to look very good and it's very easy to cover up flaws in one's game.

With that being said, I'm not saying Jones is a bad player. On the contrary, Jones is a fantastic talent with an incredible skill set that franchises look and would kill for in a defenseman. What I am saying is that Nurse is right up there with him and that the gap between Jones and Nurse has lessened significantly. Do I think Jones goes first overall? Yes, I do. I have no questions about that. Do I think Jones can be a franchise defenseman? Yes, I do. I have no questions about that either. Do I think the difference between Jones and Nurse is as big as others might be saying? No, I absolutely don't. As well, the scouting community feels the same way.

It's at the point where depending on what you're looking for, you can't go wrong with either guy. If you're looking for a Rob Blake type of defender, Jones is the guy you probably want. If you're looking for a Scott Stevens type of defender, Nurse is the you probably want.

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03-26-2013, 04:48 PM
  #863
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Nurse would have 1-2 more seasons in the OHL, right?
Yes. He just turned 18 in February

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03-26-2013, 05:47 PM
  #864
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Hey guys just a quick question. What do you think about Martin Spencer for rd 2?

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03-26-2013, 06:04 PM
  #865
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Hey guys just a quick question. What do you think about Martin Spencer for rd 2?
You can never have too many goalie prospects. Personally I hope they target Jimmy Lodge in the second. He's a pretty good forward for Saginaw who came on late in the season for them. Local kid too.

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03-26-2013, 07:49 PM
  #866
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Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
I'm beginning to think that the best-case scenario for the Flyers organization might be to have a higher-rated forward fall to them. I just don't believe that the team will have the patience required to properly develop a defenseman. Bolstering the forward corps and, in turn, flipping a center for a more developed defenseman might offer the best way forward.
I agree. If we got Jones, we will have no patience.

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03-26-2013, 07:52 PM
  #867
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Honestly, I think right now with Jones, he plays on a team that's going to challenge for the Memorial Cup and he's played on a world junior championship team. To me, I think the hype machine is in overdrive with Jones. He's playing on a loaded Portland team and he played on a loaded U.S. team (as much as people say Canada was a loaded team, that U.S. team had a boatload of talent as well). With that kind of talent, it's easy to look very good and it's very easy to cover up flaws in one's game.
You seem to be leaving out the part where Jones was an alternate captain of the gold medal winning team, and had a solid tournament, whereas Nurse didn't even make Team Canada. Yes, Jones plays for a loaded team, but that doesn't discount the fact that he's more polished, is a safer pick and probably has a higher overall upside than Nurse. We're also horrible as an organization at developing defensemen, or exhibiting any sort of patience waiting for young players to develop (that goes for fans and management).

Do you discount Crosby's ability because he plays for a loaded Penguins team? Elite players are elite players, regardless of their team.

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03-26-2013, 07:54 PM
  #868
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You can never have too many goalie prospects. Personally I hope they target Jimmy Lodge in the second. He's a pretty good forward for Saginaw who came on late in the season for them. Local kid too.
I think the Flyers new philosophy should be to take a goalie in the second round every year. Or at least the third.

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03-26-2013, 08:08 PM
  #869
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I think the Flyers new philosophy should be to take a goalie in the second round every year. Or at least the third.
Yeah this isn't a strong year for goaltenders in this draft class. But I agree with what you're saying.

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03-26-2013, 08:13 PM
  #870
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Do you think Florida take Jones first? They do seem to have a lot of young D already.

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03-26-2013, 08:23 PM
  #871
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Do you think Florida take Jones first? They do seem to have a lot of young D already.
This question isn't really relevant yet. Even if Florida finishes last the odds of them having the first overall are still low. They'll take whoever they think is the BPA. Consensus is that's Jones but that doesn't guarantee that's they way they feel.

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03-26-2013, 08:27 PM
  #872
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Do you think Florida take Jones first? They do seem to have a lot of young D already.
I still think that our best bet might be to hope that they get the top pick and try to convince them to move back to 3-4. If they grade MacKinnon, Drouin, and Barkov relatively closely, it might be plausible... maybe... sort of...

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This question isn't really relevant yet. Even if Florida finishes last the odds of them having the first overall are still low. They'll take whoever they think is the BPA. Consensus is that's Jones but that doesn't guarantee that's they way they feel.
If they have Jones and MacKinnon as 1A/1B, I think they take MacKinnon. Offense sells tickets, and in a non-traditional hockey market, there's a benefit to having a superstar.

I don't know what they will do, but I'm pretty sure that their fans want MacKinnon over Jones.

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03-26-2013, 08:59 PM
  #873
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First-time poster?? Who let YOU in???!??

Seriously, though, welcome. It's my fear, too, that the Flyers organization -- including we fans -- are too ADHD to enjoy watching a player develop into his potential. Exhibit A:



But you have to start somewhere, and it's about time the Flyers actually had very good prospects on the Phantoms. I'm coming to terms with them choosing Nurse, and I like the idea of him becoming the top-pairing Dman in Adirondack/Glens Falls.
Thanks for the warm welcome haha.

I'm pretty high on Elias Lindholm, who seems to be falling under the radar. He put up better draft-year numbers in the SEL than Nicklas Backstrom. Lots of skill with a good deal of grit. I think he's going to be one of the top players from this draft class when all is said and done.

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03-26-2013, 09:22 PM
  #874
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Funny story about Nurse. When the junior hockey year started, he wasn't even rated by ISS or CSB or any of the major scouting services. As of now, he's climbed to number 5. The only other person to see a ratings jump like that? Claude Giroux was the last guy who wasn't rated when his draft year started and climbed all the way to 24 by the time the season ended.
Nurse was the 3rd overall pick in the OHL draft and represented Canada at the Ivan Hlinka. Giroux was passed over in the OHL draft and had to try-out for Gatineau prior to his draft year. Easy to see why Giroux was unranked.

Nurse was rated #16 by ISS in October
He was rated as an "A" skater by CSS in their Preliminary lists
Honorable mention (top 20) on Bob McKenzie's preseason list
#23 on Craig Button's list from October

Not sure where you're getting this "jump in the rankings" stuff. Has he risen? Yes, but not at the level you are portraying.

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03-26-2013, 09:24 PM
  #875
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I think the Flyers new philosophy should be to take a goalie in the second round every year. Or at least the third.
ill settle for just keeping and using our own picks.

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