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Old
03-26-2013, 12:00 PM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
Eller is 48.8% on faceoffs this year: http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/4252



Umm Desharnais isn't a two-way center and doesn't face the best opposition. He faces the weakest.
I'm not sure that's true. DD gets more offensive minutes, and less
defensive minutes. But that doesn't translate to weaker opponents.
I would imagine that most coaches put out their top D pairing against
his line last year. And probably tried to get their top line out if they
were solid defensively, because they could then also try to exploit
DD relative defensive weakness. I think DD got his 60 points against
strong opponents.

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03-26-2013, 12:04 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
I'm not sure that's true. DD gets more offensive minutes, and less
defensive minutes. But that doesn't translate to weaker opponents.
I would imagine that most coaches put out their top D pairing against
his line last year. And probably tried to get their top line out if they
were solid defensively, because they could then also try to exploit
DD relative defensive weakness. I think DD got his 60 points against
strong opponents.
Umm... we all have the QoC and Corsi stats on the matter, and they paint a slightly different picture that you did here.

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03-26-2013, 12:04 PM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
I'm not sure that's true. DD gets more offensive minutes, and less
defensive minutes. But that doesn't translate to weaker opponents.
I would imagine that most coaches put out their top D pairing against
his line last year. And probably tried to get their top line out if they
were solid defensively, because they could then also try to exploit
DD relative defensive weakness. I think DD got his 60 points against
strong opponents.
The numbers state the DD had some of the weakest quality of competition on the team - so far the three coaches Desharnais has played under in the NHL have always tried to make sure Plekanec is out there against the opposing teams most effective line, and if not Plekanec, Eller. Of course this doesn't mean DD never played against strong competition, but he has been used primarily as an exploitation scorer, and I really don't think there's any debate with that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
Umm Desharnais isn't a two-way center and doesn't face the best opposition. He faces the weakest.
Well, that's why I'm saying, if we trade Plekanec to make room for Gally at center, it means one of Galchenyuk or Desharnais will not be in an exploitation role. You can't have two exploitation scoring lines. It's very likely Galchenyuk will have no problem filling a two way role someday, but next year, at 20? If we must move him off the wing ASAP, it can only come at the expense of Desharnais IMO. Even if they think Eller is good enough to replace Plekanec at this point (even as an Eller fan, I'm not so sure), Galchenyuk would be replacing Eller, and I would hate to see the reaction here if Galchenyuk was used as a defense-first third liner. Which is why I want to see how DD plays on the wings.


Last edited by Et le But: 03-26-2013 at 12:10 PM.
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Old
03-26-2013, 12:37 PM
  #129
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I think us Habs fans have been criticizing DD a bit too much, but it's all about hype and French media being in love with him.

The fact is, none of our centers is a quality 1st line center, Plek, DD and Eller are all quality 2nd or 3rd line center. None of them have the talent it takes to earn a 1st line center job on a cup contender (I don't expect the Habs to compete for the cup this year). Plek has always been closer to be a 1st line center, but it seems his defensive is so much needed that he can't concentrate on creating offense. Plek is probably the best 2-way center in the league, but lacks points scoring, so I peg him as one of the best 2nd line center in the NHL.

The question is, who do we move going forward, to aquire our 1st line center ? My pick would be DD or Plek. DD first, and hopefully he performs well for his contract, that'll bump his trade value.

Unless of course Galchenyuk developps as a top line center, and he seems to have the playmaking abilities. But even then we'll have to move someone.

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03-26-2013, 12:54 PM
  #130
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Question, I don't know to much about advanced stats, but I have read a lot of things like DD plays vs weak opponents and plays sheltered minutes.

What does that mean, I understand sheltered minutes mean probaly like getting more offensive zone starts and few defensive zone starts, but how are you judging the players he is up against. Does it mean that he doesn't go againt other teams top lines? Does he face other teams bottom pairing d-men?

Because it seems like most teams both their top pairing d-men vs the DD line.

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03-26-2013, 01:02 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Question, I don't know to much about advanced stats, but I have read a lot of things like DD plays vs weak opponents and plays sheltered minutes.

What does that mean, I understand sheltered minutes mean probaly like getting more offensive zone starts and few defensive zone starts, but how are you judging the players he is up against. Does it mean that he doesn't go againt other teams top lines? Does he face other teams bottom pairing d-men?

Because it seems like most teams both their top pairing d-men vs the DD line.
It's exactly what you said.
If you see top pairing its because your watching a road game.

Really, how many times have you seen DD go in the corners with Chara, Bergeron, Phaneuf, Kessel, Crosby, Letang and co? Very few times.

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03-26-2013, 01:20 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
It's exactly what you said.
If you see top pairing its because your watching a road game.

Really, how many times have you seen DD go in the corners with Chara, Bergeron, Phaneuf, Kessel, Crosby, Letang and co? Very few times.
Well if that is the case, doesn't that mean that he does face tough competition in the sense that he goes another teams top defensive forwards and d-men, specially on the road?

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03-26-2013, 01:26 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Well if that is the case, doesn't that mean that he does face tough competition in the sense that he goes another teams top defensive forwards and d-men, specially on the road?
Obviously not enough to tip the advanced stats back into his favour, or to be reflective of his "usage" "overall".

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03-26-2013, 01:29 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Well if that is the case, doesn't that mean that he does face tough competition in the sense that he goes another teams top defensive forwards and d-men, specially on the road?
Even on the road the coach can avoid top pairings/lines. It's harder but it can happen.

Advanced stats is advanced stats. It's not flawed but you cant base your argument around that only.

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03-26-2013, 01:30 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Obviously not enough to tip the advanced stats back into his favour, or to be reflective of his "usage" "overall".
again sorry if i'm being annoying but what does that mean?

He isn't putting up enough points to be used in that role? I mean during road games, if teams are playing their top d pairing vs the DD line, shouldn't the Plek and Eller line be better up better numbers since they face 2nd and 3rd pairings?

Answer just kinda hypothetical speaking, and I'm just trying to understand.

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03-26-2013, 01:34 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
again sorry if i'm being annoying but what does that mean?

He isn't putting up enough points to be used in that role? I mean during road games, if teams are playing their top d pairing vs the DD line, shouldn't the Plek and Eller line be better up better numbers since they face 2nd and 3rd pairings?

Answer just kinda hypothetical speaking, and I'm just trying to understand.
If we play Pittsburgh.

Plek will face Crosby and Eller will face Malkin

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03-26-2013, 01:37 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
If we play Pittsburgh.

Plek will face Crosby and Eller will face Malkin
With Sutter playing vs DD, I see what you mean by you can't really just use those advance stats, because while Crosby and Malkin are the better offensive players, Sutter actually might be the better defensive player.

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03-26-2013, 03:18 PM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
If we play Pittsburgh.

Plek will face Crosby and Eller will face Malkin
Are you saying that the Pitt coach will try to protect Crosby
and Malkin from DD? That doesn't sound plausible to me.

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03-26-2013, 03:26 PM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Umm... we all have the QoC and Corsi stats on the matter, and they paint a slightly different picture that you did here.
I don't know what these models include. Do any of then look simply
at average ice-time of opponents? That should become significant pretty
quickly.

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03-26-2013, 03:49 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
I don't know what these models include. Do any of then look simply
at average ice-time of opponents? That should become significant pretty
quickly.
That's been done, it ended up being so similar to corsiRel QoC that they didn't bother to keep doing it because it was essentially showing the same thing.

There was an interesting one that split forward and defensemen QoC which showed how there were some lines that get used like Desharnais does that face weaker forwards but still good defensemen. That's fairly common for your true "pure offense" lines that typically are built around offensive wingers (wingers having less defensive talent than centers) and young/inexperienced talent. Desharnais line is arguably both since the driver of results is Pacioretty, easily the teams best offensive weapon and its center is a recent graduate with questionable defensive skills.

Like I keep saying, the sheltering Desharnais gets isn't so much to make it easier to score, but primarily to avoid putting him in dangerous defensive situations. The increased scoring and better shot/scoring chance/and eventual goal differential for DD is a side effect of avoiding putting him in a position to get scored against rather than primarily about boost his point totals.

Which gets back to what I'll say about Desharnais, he's a darn fine offensive zone/playmaking specialist not the drive of results but solid as a supporting cast guy if you keep him in his role. A good way to describe it is that's he's the inverse of Hal Gill.

And now he makes a completely fair salary for that kind of supporting cast player, essentially what other top 6/9 complimentary forwards like AKostisyn and Bourque get.

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03-26-2013, 05:41 PM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
That's been done, it ended up being so similar to corsiRel QoC that they didn't bother to keep doing it because it was essentially showing the same thing.

There was an interesting one that split forward and defensemen QoC which showed how there were some lines that get used like Desharnais does that face weaker forwards but still good defensemen. That's fairly common for your true "pure offense" lines that typically are built around offensive wingers (wingers having less defensive talent than centers) and young/inexperienced talent. Desharnais line is arguably both since the driver of results is Pacioretty, easily the teams best offensive weapon and its center is a recent graduate with questionable defensive skills.

Like I keep saying, the sheltering Desharnais gets isn't so much to make it easier to score, but primarily to avoid putting him in dangerous defensive situations. The increased scoring and better shot/scoring chance/and eventual goal differential for DD is a side effect of avoiding putting him in a position to get scored against rather than primarily about boost his point totals.

Which gets back to what I'll say about Desharnais, he's a darn fine offensive zone/playmaking specialist not the drive of results but solid as a supporting cast guy if you keep him in his role. A good way to describe it is that's he's the inverse of Hal Gill.

And now he makes a completely fair salary for that kind of supporting cast player, essentially what other top 6/9 complimentary forwards like AKostisyn and Bourque get.
To the first point. In the case of DD, it makes sense that opponents
would use their top D pairing, but not necessarily their top line. They would
save their top line more often for their own O-zone starts.
And I get that he gains by being sheltered from some tough defensive
mach-ups. But like you said, I don't think his points are coming in easier
match-ups. He just gets more oppertunities because of relatively more
O-zone starts.
As to these "advanced stats". It would make sense that they show a
similar picture to ice-time. Some day I should look at these thing a little
more.

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03-26-2013, 05:55 PM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
With Sutter playing vs DD, I see what you mean by you can't really just use those advance stats, because while Crosby and Malkin are the better offensive players, Sutter actually might be the better defensive player.
One great thing about the advanced stats is that it takes "reputation" out of the equation, and just measure what countable events everyone was able to record over the multitude of situations they've been thrown into (and against whom). Player reputations stick around for a long time in the "overall" sense, but even facing the same players year after year, your QoC will reflect what they've (and you've) done "recently", as opposed to what they have for a reputation from 5 years ago, or even the last couple of years, for example.

To touch on the defensemen faced part, realize that on just about every team the top 2 pairings play a combined ~45 of 60 minutes (75%). That's two pairings playing almost the same amount of time that 3 forward lines get in a game, so there's bound to be overlap (making it a bit harder to speak in generalities about defensemen faced).

Also, yes, relative icetime is factored in, I believe, depending on which metric(s) you're talking about.

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03-26-2013, 05:59 PM
  #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habaddict View Post
Are you saying that the Pitt coach will try to protect Crosby
and Malkin from DD? That doesn't sound plausible to me.
No. Pitt wants DD to be against Geno or Sid, because he's poor defensively.
MTL wants Plek against Geno or Sid.

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03-26-2013, 06:39 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
No. Pitt wants DD to be against Geno or Sid, because he's poor defensively.
MTL wants Plek against Geno or Sid.
Well, level of subjectivity aside, you are correct.

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03-26-2013, 07:38 PM
  #145
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can't wait for the day he gets traded

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03-26-2013, 08:40 PM
  #146
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Can't believe we have to put up with 4 more years of his ****** play. Move him to the wing or get him the **** off the team...

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03-26-2013, 08:44 PM
  #147
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Desharnais on the bench in the last minute of play against Pittsburg. Even Therrien is starting to realize that DD is not a go to guy. Another poor game for DD, i think it's time to move Gallagher back on the line with Eller and Chuckie.

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03-26-2013, 09:03 PM
  #148
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Desharnais on the bench in the last minute of play against Pittsburg. Even Therrien is starting to realize that DD is not a go to guy. Another poor game for DD, i think it's time to move Gallagher back on the line with Eller and Chuckie.
This.

I understand they want to bring Alex along slowly but he played his best when Gallagher was on his wing. I wouldn't be opposed to playing Galchnyuk at C with Gallagher and Patches on his wings for a game to see what the chemistry is like either. I still don't understand the DD deal. Watching him tonight not wanting to go to the corners and do the dirty work against a good team like the Pens is just awful. Pleks-Gally-Eller-Halpern is a pretty solid Center group. It's too bad we couldn't have traded DD a few weeks ago to a team like Florida for draft picks. Weiss going out for the year maybe they would have paid a 2nd or a 3rd for help if he was available who knows.

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03-26-2013, 09:12 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL View Post
Desharnais on the bench in the last minute of play against Pittsburg. Even Therrien is starting to realize that DD is not a go to guy. Another poor game for DD, i think it's time to move Gallagher back on the line with Eller and Chuckie.
DD's line was on the ice the minute just before. You can't play that line for the full last 2 minutes, obviously.

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03-26-2013, 09:15 PM
  #150
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This.

I understand they want to bring Alex along slowly but he played his best when Gallagher was on his wing. I wouldn't be opposed to playing Galchnyuk at C with Gallagher and Patches on his wings for a game to see what the chemistry is like either. I still don't understand the DD deal. Watching him tonight not wanting to go to the corners and do the dirty work against a good team like the Pens is just awful. Pleks-Gally-Eller-Halpern is a pretty solid Center group. It's too bad we couldn't have traded DD a few weeks ago to a team like Florida for draft picks. Weiss going out for the year maybe they would have paid a 2nd or a 3rd for help if he was available who knows.
Not yet. Chuckie not ready for center, play Eller at center with the two Gallys, at least Brendan's effort will not be wasted. Have Armstrong play with Patches and DD, at least that line wont get scored on as often.

BTW, guess who was on the iced when Crosby scored.... DD of course.

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