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Old
03-26-2013, 11:35 AM
  #126
Old Navy Goat
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I think the Nucks also felt that Schroeder could come in and easily replace Hodgson's minutes without causing the 'problems' that Gillis felt were associated with him.

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Old
03-26-2013, 11:37 AM
  #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
I think the Nucks also felt that Schroeder could come in and easily replace Hodgson's minutes without causing the 'problems' that Gillis felt were associated with him.
That and I'm sure they figured Kesler would be healthy. Him being constantly out of the lineup hurts them the most.

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Old
03-26-2013, 12:17 PM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat View Post
I think the Nucks also felt that Schroeder could come in and easily replace Hodgson's minutes without causing the 'problems' that Gillis felt were associated with him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
That and I'm sure they figured Kesler would be healthy. Him being constantly out of the lineup hurts them the most.
I suppose I should have clarified that the timing of the trade and the situation the Nucks were in at the time of the trade were big reasons for me thinking it was a stupid move.

The Nucks were heading towards the President's trophy and were a Cup fav heading into last season's trade deadline. Hodgson was 4th in goals scored (16g) and 4th in PP points at the time of the trade. He added quality scoring depth to a team that frankly had little beyond the Sedins' line and Kesler (himself not his line). He also gave them quality depth at center which we know is important for any team looking to make a Cup run.


At the deadline, when teams in the Nucks position are looking to shore up weaknesses and add depth. Gillis weakened his center position and made his team worse by trading Hodgson for Kassian. Whether Kassian turns into an effective top 6 power forward or not in a few years is not the point. At the time of the trade he wasn't as good offensively as Hodgson nor was he a center. Gillis cut off his nose to spite his face. I find it hard to believe the Nucks couldn't have waited until after the season to part ways with Hodgson. At that time a Hodgson for Kassian deal would make a lot more sense from a Nucks pov.

And to pile on the Nucks doctors, management and coaches. Its become pretty obvious the issue was them misreading the severity of Hodgson's injury thus leading them to question his attitude. To the point that AV took childish mocking digs at Hodgson about him faking or playing up his injury. Gary Roberts, who trains Cody in the offseason and doesn't exactly tolerate lazy bums, took a shot at the Nucks over the summer for their unfair comments/treatment of Cody.

At the end of the day the Nucks messed up and we've gained a top 6 center for the foreseeable future because of it.


Last edited by joshjull: 03-26-2013 at 12:43 PM.
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Old
03-26-2013, 01:10 PM
  #129
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I agree that the timing was strange, but I also think that he felt that Schroeder could come in and be as effective while acquiring Kassian would give them added nasty for the playoff run.

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Old
03-26-2013, 10:02 PM
  #130
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The tank is back baby!!!

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Old
03-26-2013, 10:03 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by sabresfan129103 View Post
The tank is back baby!!!
We're back? We're on the air?!

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Old
03-26-2013, 10:48 PM
  #132
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Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 5 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 16 games and have gone 7-6-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 15 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (38% Chance, or a 84% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .368 and a point percentage of .474. Of the remaining 5 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-6-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 24% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .438), or roughly only 1~2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 77%, from .353 to .625 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 15 games. 52 points would mean a 55.8% chance, 53 a 78.4% chance, and 54 a 92.6% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  1. Winning 11 of the 15 games which is about .750 hockey
  2. Winning 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  3. Or at least points in 80% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 15.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 30% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I see us going probably 1-3 in our next 4 (Up to the trade deadline) losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and beating Florida in OT/SO. I think we finish the final 15 games 5-8-2, so 99% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 74%, 40%, and 10% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 85%, and 46% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 59% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


=========
Note from earlier:

Quote:
I've seemed to notice that a lot of bashing is going back and forth between people that want them to tank, want to make a run, etc. Let me try to make the civilized argument to "tanking." When we root/cheer/hope/whatever for a loss, we aren't trying to root against the team. I think it's fair to say that most of us a passionate Sabres fans that want to see the team do good, however we've just come to the conclusion that:
  • this isn't the year for us
  • we most likely won't be having the opportunity to draft this high again anytime soon
  • the high end draft talent this year is ridiculously good
  • and we want to see some changes on the team.
The Maple Leafs game was one of the funnest and best game to watch this year. I was happy that it was an entertaining game, the team showed effort, and even though I'm pro-tank, I was happy for the win. But games like tonight against Montreal (and now Tampa Bay) are what frustrate me as a fan because we were clearly outclassed and honestly won a game that we really shouldn't have.

In the end, whether you're pro-tank or anti-tank, we're all fans of the team and just want to see the team better, we just have different viewpoints on how to go about it. It's like arguing politics. Both sides think they're right and both sides have merit to them. I just hope we can keep it all civil


Last edited by sjci: 03-27-2013 at 01:54 AM. Reason: Rangers have 13 ROW not 12
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Old
03-26-2013, 10:59 PM
  #133
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Frankly, I think it's likelier that they make the playoffs than finish 14th or 15th. I doubt either will happen.

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Old
03-26-2013, 11:03 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason View Post
Frankly, I think it's likelier that they make the playoffs than finish 14th or 15th. I doubt either will happen.
I think Florida will definitely finish worse than use, and it'll be between us, Tampa, and Philadelphia on who finishes 12th/13th/14th. My guess is it'll end up

12. Tampa
13. Buffalo
14. Philadelphia
15. Florida

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Old
03-26-2013, 11:05 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
I think Florida will definitely finish worse than use, and it'll be between us, Tampa, and Philadelphia on who finishes 12th/13th/14th. My guess is it'll end up

12. Tampa
13. Buffalo
14. Philadelphia
15. Florida
I agree with your 14/15 for sure.

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Old
03-26-2013, 11:08 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
I think Florida will definitely finish worse than use, and it'll be between us, Tampa, and Philadelphia on who finishes 12th/13th/14th. My guess is it'll end up

12. Tampa
13. Buffalo
14. Philadelphia
15. Florida
Yea, I've been thinking for a few weeks #12/13 in the east

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Old
03-26-2013, 11:09 PM
  #137
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Awesome,e post sjci.

Since playoffs are very unlikely all you need is a solid 4-5 game skid at the end and we could really be in line for a top 3 pick. Like you said, it's so tight any win/loss is huge for standings.

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Old
03-27-2013, 01:38 AM
  #138
sjci
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Selanne00008 View Post
Awesome,e post sjci.

Since playoffs are very unlikely all you need is a solid 4-5 game skid at the end and we could really be in line for a top 3 pick. Like you said, it's so tight any win/loss is huge for standings.
Thanks! I'm going to try and post an update of this after each game, so we can get a clearer picture as we head towards the end of the year. I think there's definitely opportunity for us to go on mini losing streaks.

Quote:
3/28 - @Florida
3/30 - Washington
3/31 - Boston
4/02 - @Pitt
-----Trade Deadline-----
4/05 - Ottawa
4/07 - New Jersey
4/09 - @Winnipeg
4/11 - Montreal
4/13 - Philadelphia
4/14 - Tampa Bay
4/17 - @Boston
4/19 - New York Ranger
4/20 - @Pittsburgh
4/22 - Winnipeg
4/26 - New York Islanders
We might even have one coming up. Florida has just had some bad luck at home this year, with a 23.5 Win %, but they have 5 OT/SO losses at home, so they are competitive/getting points in 52.9% of those games. So we could potentially be looking at another loss. Washington is a toss up that I would throw the Caps way as they've been pretty hot lately. And I'm saying Boston and Pittsburgh should be losses, so we could be looking at a 5 game skid. That would definitely improve the chances of a better pick.

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Old
03-27-2013, 01:41 AM
  #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 12 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 5 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 16 games and have gone 7-6-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 15 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (38% Chance, or a 84% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .368 and a point percentage of .474. Of the remaining 5 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-6-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 24% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .438), or roughly only 1~2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 77%, from .353 to .625 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 15 games. 52 points would mean a 55.8% chance, 53 a 78.4% chance, and 54 a 92.6% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  1. Winning 11 of the 15 games which is about .750 hockey
  2. Winning 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  3. Or at least points in 80% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 15.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 30% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I see us going probably 1-3 in our next 4 (Up to the trade deadline) losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and beating Florida in OT/SO. I think we finish the final 15 games 5-8-2, so 99% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 74%, 40%, and 10% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 85%, and 46% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 59% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


=========
Note from earlier:
Nice job

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Old
03-27-2013, 02:27 AM
  #140
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I'm now rooting for the Sabres to lose, so that they can win in the long-term.

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Old
03-27-2013, 02:38 AM
  #141
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
The Nucks depth at center with Hodgson was nothing special and removing Hodgson created a hole. Plus Malhotra is an older 3/4 defensive center thats a faceoff specialist. Whereas Hodgson was a rookie offensive center with top 6 potential when he got traded. Other than being centers they have nothing in common and their impact/roles on the team were completely different.
Maybe, but they weren't going to bench Sedin or Kesler to give Cody a top 6 spot, and neither is going to retire anytime soon. I agree that Cody isn't a good fit for a bottom 6 role, but that would be his opportunity in Vancouver if Kesler was healthy. Cody was expendable

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Old
03-27-2013, 06:19 AM
  #142
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PLEASE. STOP. CITING. SPORTS. CLUB. STATS. AS. ACCURATE.

The numbers they put out there are NOT CORRECT.

The only way to properly calculate this number is to calculate all possible combinations of all possible outcomes of all remaining games, then determining what percentage of those combinations involve the Sabres making the playoffs.

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Old
03-27-2013, 07:13 AM
  #143
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The tank is on!!

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03-27-2013, 07:14 AM
  #144
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Originally Posted by SackTastic View Post
PLEASE. STOP. CITING. SPORTS. CLUB. STATS. AS. ACCURATE.

The numbers they put out there are NOT CORRECT.

The only way to properly calculate this number is to calculate all possible combinations of all possible outcomes of all remaining games, then determining what percentage of those combinations involve the Sabres making the playoffs.
I thought this was the way they did it?

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03-27-2013, 08:08 AM
  #145
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Originally Posted by aceface33 View Post
The tank is on!!
Funny how going 3-1-0 can still lead them basically to where they are today... still poor.

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03-27-2013, 08:21 AM
  #146
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This post has to fly against all that pro sports is all about, winning or trying to win at all costs. To deliberately lose is something that happens in a two bit sport, but not a great one such as hockey.

To also think that selecting a player in the draft will immediately provide results is also absurd. Its a crap shoot at best no matter where you select. Oilers anyone?

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03-27-2013, 08:44 AM
  #147
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Originally Posted by French Connection View Post
This post has to fly against all that pro sports is all about, winning or trying to win at all costs. To deliberately lose is something that happens in a two bit sport, but not a great one such as hockey.

To also think that selecting a player in the draft will immediately provide results is also absurd. Its a crap shoot at best no matter where you select. Oilers anyone?
Is it though? Tell that to Pittsburgh, or even Chicago.

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03-27-2013, 08:48 AM
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-52pts)
Tell me that isn't the needed exclamation point the night before the trade deadline.

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Old
03-27-2013, 09:20 AM
  #149
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Any updates on Vanek? I think his status factors quite prominently in this thread.

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Old
03-27-2013, 09:24 AM
  #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by French Connection View Post
This post has to fly against all that pro sports is all about, winning or trying to win at all costs. To deliberately lose is something that happens in a two bit sport, but not a great one such as hockey.

To also think that selecting a player in the draft will immediately provide results is also absurd. Its a crap shoot at best no matter where you select. Oilers anyone?
Taylor Hall PPG 21 years old
RNH PPG last season as an 18 year old
Yakupov is struggling but is only 18.

All 3 will be 1st liners at least with Hall starting to really become a impact player

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