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Eastern Conference #1 Seed: Magic Number Thread

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03-27-2013, 10:16 AM
  #1
johnniewalker
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Eastern Conference #1 Seed: Magic Number Thread

So, we have a guaranteed Atlantic Division Championship. Now all that is left is to challenge for the top seed in the East, and potentially for the President's Trophy.

TEAMGPWLOTLPTSROWSOWSOLPOSSROWPMAGIC#
Pittsburgh433310066303076350
Boston422611557224369281.5
Montreal432612557233267280.5

The magic number column works as follows:

Penguins win decreases the magic number for all Atlantic division teams by 1.
Penguins overtime loss decreases the magic number for all Atlantic division teams by 0.5.
Any other team win keeps the magic number the same for that team.
Any other team loss decreases the magic number for that team by 1.
Any other team overtime loss decreases the magic number for that team by 0.5.

The Penguins have locked up the top seed when all other teams' magic numbers are less than or equal to 0 and their ROWP (Regulation and Overtime Wins Possible) is less than the Penguins current ROW.

Here is the table for the President's Trophy:
TEAMGPWLOTLPTSROWSOWSOLPOSSROWPMAGIC#
Pittsburgh433310066303076350
Chicago42335470276482338
Anaheim432710660216370262
Boston422611557224369281.5
Montreal432612557233267280.5


Last edited by johnniewalker: 04-18-2013 at 02:03 PM.
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03-27-2013, 10:24 AM
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LetangInTheSO
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I try not to jinx things and nothing's ever a guarantee in sports, but I think it's safe to say that the Penguins easily win the division. It would require a combination of a disastrous finish for the Pens and an absolute tear by another team in the division for the Pens to slip out of 1st.

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03-27-2013, 10:28 AM
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Bengui
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LetangInTheSO View Post
I try not to jinx things and nothing's ever a guarantee in sports[...]
There's no such thing as a jinx either
Let's be real. We win the division.

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03-27-2013, 10:30 AM
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Likely as it may be that we do win it, I just want to know when that is exactly!

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03-27-2013, 10:31 AM
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LetangInTheSO
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnniewalker View Post
Likely as it may be that we do win it, I just want to know when that is exactly!
Yeah, I wasn't trying to diminish the thread, I was just pointing out that it is extremely unlikely that we don't win the division.

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03-27-2013, 10:34 AM
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Very nice, thanks. Has anyone done a playoff magic number calculation?

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03-27-2013, 10:38 AM
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LetangInTheSO
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Very nice, thanks. Has anyone done a playoff magic number calculation?
We need 11 more points to be guaranteed a playoff spot.

EDIT: I guess we technically need 12 points, because 11 SO losses for us combined with the currently 9th place Isles winning their games outright would bump us out, so we either need 11 points with at least 5 regulation/OT winners or 12 points in any way.

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03-27-2013, 10:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dying Alive View Post
Very nice, thanks. Has anyone done a playoff magic number calculation?
Lowest in the play-offs at the moment is Rangers with 35 points on 32 games.

However, outside the play-offs the Canes have 32 points on 31 games.

Rangers could finish with at most 67 I think whilst Carolina could finish with 66 points.

At their current pace though Rangers would finish with 52.5 whilst Carolina would finish with 49.54.

So, you could say that technically we're in the play-offs. Not mathematically though.

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03-27-2013, 11:29 AM
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If you would have told me when the season started that we'd have a 15pt lead in the division on this date, in this shortened season... I wouldn't have believed you for a second.

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03-27-2013, 11:32 AM
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Dying Alive
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Quote:
Originally Posted by standundefeated View Post
If you would have told me when the season started that we'd have a 15pt lead in the division on this date, in this shortened season... I wouldn't have believed you for a second.
Yeah, I agree. I thought it was going to be a much tougher division this year. I did think the Rangers were overrated but I didn't think for a second they'd be in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. Same with the Flyers, they have a lot of question marks (esp on defense) but I thought they'd be safely in as well.

To be fair, if Brodeur hadn't missed so much time I doubt our lead is as big as it is.

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03-29-2013, 02:42 PM
  #11
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Updated with last night's results. 6.5 wins / division losses to go.

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03-29-2013, 02:46 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dying Alive View Post
Yeah, I agree. I thought it was going to be a much tougher division this year. I did think the Rangers were overrated but I didn't think for a second they'd be in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. Same with the Flyers, they have a lot of question marks (esp on defense) but I thought they'd be safely in as well.

To be fair, if Brodeur hadn't missed so much time I doubt our lead is as big as it is.
I have to agree with that. I think the Devils are our biggest competitor this season in our division and Brodeur is just too good. If he were here, I guarantee the Devils have at least another 5 wins if not more. It'd be funny if he was only out 4 games because then I would look stupid because I don't how long he was out only that he was out with an injury.

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03-29-2013, 03:45 PM
  #13
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So 14 pts is technically the magic #? 7 wins? Or of course 4 wins/3 losses by the opponents/etc.

That's very do-able. Thanks for keeping this, jw!

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03-29-2013, 04:08 PM
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5 more points till Philly is officially out of the division race lol

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03-30-2013, 07:10 AM
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A Flyers loss and Penguins win would mean that we'd be 1 win away from them not being able to win the division.

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03-30-2013, 11:48 AM
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Updated for the Jersey game last night. The number is now 6 games even.

3 wins by us and 3 losses by Jersey would put us out of reach.

3 wins by us and 2 losses and an overtime loss by NYR would put them out of it.

Beating the Isles in regulation today plus 2 more wins for us and an OTL for them would put them out.

A win today and a Flyers loss would put them an OTL away from being out of the hunt.


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03-30-2013, 11:54 AM
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Great stuff, JW.

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03-31-2013, 03:19 AM
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So the 8th and 9th place team in the east have 35 points, we have 56 points, so a 21 point spread. We have 12 games remaining, with a possible 24 points. So would that mean that we are three points, either through wins by us or losses, from clinching a playoff spot? We could possibly clinch a playoff spot by Tuesday.

We also are 7 points ahead of the second most points in the division, Montreal. So again, with a possible 24 points remaining, are we 17 points from clinching the division?

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03-31-2013, 03:45 AM
  #19
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I think we are very close to ensuring the playoff spot, just reminder that you can't give wins to all teams. When one wins, other loses. So no adding 2*games left for all. You can give all 1 point per game albeit and then try to place wins so that we fall out. This is very tricky to do by hand in my opinion and best to have computer simulate it.


Last edited by Atren: 03-31-2013 at 03:57 AM.
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03-31-2013, 04:25 AM
  #20
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Hey guys I hope we win the division. It seems like we have a good chance.

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03-31-2013, 04:26 AM
  #21
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I've updated my status from "good chance" to. "The Penguins need to die in a plane crash"

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03-31-2013, 08:35 AM
  #22
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Updated. Almost everyone else lost and we won, so big movement in the numbers.

2 Pens wins and 3 losses with one in OT for Jersey and they are done.

If we can win these 2 upcoming games against the Rangers then they are done.

The Isles are out with a win for us and loss and OTL for them.

Philly is just a Pens win and OTL for them away from being out of it.

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03-31-2013, 10:48 AM
  #23
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Tiebreaker: In the event teams are tied in the standings, the following tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.
1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won (not including games won in a shootout).
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. Goal differential.

I think one more win and no one in the division will be able to beat us on any tiebreaker scenerio. The devils would lose on #2 even if they win out. None of the other teams can win on the #3 scenerio...
Thus 1 win + 7 more points gained by us in any way over the last 12 games and we win the division no matter what.
The devils can amass a total of 65 points at this point. The Rags 63, the Isles 61, and the flyers 59. thus 1 win +1 point gained by us or 1 loss and 1 other point lost by the Flyers eliminates them
thus 1 win +3 points gained by us or 1 loss and 3 other points lost by the Rangers eliminates them
thus 1 win +5 points gained by us or 1 loss and 5 other points lost by the Isles eliminates them
thus 1 win +7 points gained by us or 1 loss and 7 other points lost by the Devils eliminates them

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03-31-2013, 08:41 PM
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Some guy did the math on the main board. Basically we have made it into the playoffs absent an amazingly unlikely scenerio as we are closer than we think we are as a lot of the teams below us play one another more than once, so one of the two are guarenteed to lose. Here is the mathmatics that he came up with:

'Assuming the Pens go 0-12 Montreal, Boston, Ottawa and Toronto can get ahead of them based solely on their games against teams out of the playoffs.

Here's what could happen to get the teams in

Pitts goes 0-12

Montreal: Wins against Philly, Washington, Buffalo, Philly, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Washington (puts them at 63 points minimum)

Boston: Wins against Buffalo, Islanders, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Florida, Philly, Tampa, Washington (puts them at 62 points minimum)

Ottawa: Wins against Buffalo, Florida, Tampa, Philly, washington, pitts, wash, philly (puts them at 60 points minimum)

Toronto: Wins against Philly, washington, islanders, tampa, florida, Montreal, Montreal (puts them at 58 points minimum)

New Jersey: Wins against Islanders, Buffalo, Philly, FLorida, Pitts, Boston, Toronto, Boston, Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal (puts them at 61 minimum)

Winnipeg: Wins against Islanders, Montreal, Philly, BUffalo, Florida, Tampa, Islanders, Buffalo, Washington, Montreal (puts them at 58 minimum)

NY Rangers: Wins against Winnipeg, Pitts, Pitts, Toronto, Toronto, Islanders, Philly, FLorida, Buffalo, Jersey, Florida, Jersey (puts them at 59 minimum)

Carolina: Any 13 regular/OT wins. (puts them at 58 minimum)'

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04-03-2013, 09:27 AM
  #25
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Updated for the last day or so.

Two wins against the Rangers this week will put them out of the race. Let's go Pens!

The Devils play Boston tomorrow, which is a big game for both teams.

The Isles have Washington tomorrow, who are hungry for a playoff spot.

Philly plays Montreal tonight and then Toronto tomorrow night. They could be out of the race soon.

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