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How many points will it take to make the playoffs?

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Old
03-21-2013, 02:13 AM
  #76
Ron
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I'm not satisfied with the 8 spot this season.

It would take a monumental collapse by Anaheim in order for ANY other team in the Pacific to catch them, so that's not happening.

We need to get the 4th spot. Keep winning, baby, with a "get even" game against a team that is kind of stumbling along...but kicked the Kings' ass last time we faced them.

Oh yeah, we also get the President's Trophy Threepeat (not) team on Saturday. Kick 'em while they're down.

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03-21-2013, 02:25 PM
  #77
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Jumping WAAAAY ahead of things...

...but if the post-season started tomorrow, all it would take for a 2nd-round Kings/Ducks series to happen would be for a #6-#3 "upset"...

Who knows, this might actually be the time the rivalry really sparks.

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03-21-2013, 02:38 PM
  #78
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If we hold this course, I would be freaking ecstatic with a first round matchup against St. Louis.

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03-21-2013, 03:16 PM
  #79
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91-92 was the last time the Kings had home ice in a series, and they lost in the 1st round to those damn Oilers. The highest seed the Kings have been since then was 5th, in 97-98 and 99-00, and the Kings were swept both times.

The Kings would've been 6th in 1993 if the conference playoffs were around then. Who would they have played first? Detroit. Yzerman vs. Gretzky could've been interesting.

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03-22-2013, 08:23 PM
  #80
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After the games of 3/22/13:

The target for 8th raised back up to 51 points with Dallas's win. That translates to a record of 7-10-1, a percentage of .417.

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03-24-2013, 01:45 AM
  #81
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After games of 3/23/13:

The target has moved again, this time to 52 points, requiring a record of 8-9 from the Kings to lock down a playoff spot. Don't look now, but they're 3-4 in the last seven...

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03-26-2013, 06:00 PM
  #82
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After games of 3/25/13:

The target has slipped back a point again to 51, which along with the roller-coaster win last night brings the needed record in the remaining 16 games to 6-9-1 (a percentage of .406).

STILL depressingly not projecting a way to take the Pacific.

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03-26-2013, 06:21 PM
  #83
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We need to out-point Anaheim by 11 from here on out, so the Ducks basically need to go 5-11 to our 11-5 for us to snare the Pacific. Its a slim chance, but seeing as how they're suddenly on a 3 game losing streak...

All we need to do is get a couple small winning streaks going, take care of business against Anaheim and hope for the best.

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03-26-2013, 06:25 PM
  #84
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In my humble opinion I much would rather get the 6 wins needed to get in, then rest those who need it. Having a healthy team is way more important than trying to catch the quack peckers.

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03-27-2013, 12:49 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Winger23 View Post
In my humble opinion I much would rather get the 6 wins needed to get in, then rest those who need it. Having a healthy team is way more important than trying to catch the quack peckers.
The only thing is that we've played much better at home this season than on the road, whereas last year we were money on the road. It'd be nice to take the 4th spot to get the home ice advantage.

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03-27-2013, 02:40 PM
  #86
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The only thing is that we've played much better at home this season than on the road, whereas last year we were money on the road. It'd be nice to take the 4th spot to get the home ice advantage.
Nice, yes - But right now it's projecting out as 62 points needed to get the #4 slot, which is a record of 12-4 (a percentage of .750)

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03-27-2013, 02:53 PM
  #87
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Nice, yes - But right now it's projecting out as 62 points needed to get the #4 slot, which is a record of 12-4 (a percentage of .750)
We're only two points out of fourth... someone has to win all those games. Why not us?

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03-27-2013, 04:00 PM
  #88
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We're only two points out of fourth... someone has to win all those games. Why not us?
I don't think anyone is saying the Kings can't get 4th, my thing is I would rather be a 7th seed with rested and healthy players than grab 4th with nagging injuries and tired players.

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03-27-2013, 04:10 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Winger23 View Post
I don't think anyone is saying the Kings can't get 4th, my thing is I would rather be a 7th seed with rested and healthy players than grab 4th with nagging injuries and tired players.
That's making the assumption that it's even a choice.
We are 2 points out of 4th and because of our ROW number going to say 5 points into the playoffs.
I don't see us being able to let up and get in. And then there is the problem once you do kind of let up can you get it going again.
With only 16 games left in order to even get every player on the team one game of rest we would have had to started 2 weeks ago.

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03-27-2013, 04:34 PM
  #90
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We handled 102 games last season. We can manage like everyone else.

And injuries can happen anytime, anyplace, no matter how high or low the team set their sights.

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03-29-2013, 12:43 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by tsanuri View Post
That's making the assumption that it's even a choice.
We are 2 points out of 4th and because of our ROW number going to say 5 points into the playoffs.
I don't see us being able to let up and get in. And then there is the problem once you do kind of let up can you get it going again.
With only 16 games left in order to even get every player on the team one game of rest we would have had to started 2 weeks ago.
The west is pretty tight with not many points separating teams. It's going to be a tight race all the way to the end of the season most likely. Probably the most you can hope for is good enough offense that you can rest some star players a bit more each game.

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03-29-2013, 01:06 AM
  #92
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Momentum in hockey is huge, whether it's shift to shift, period to period or even game to game. For some reason the way that the home ice "advantage" is set up, it seems like the other team gets two at home to build momentum into the critical game 5. It may be why so many series are upsets.

Also, I like to finish sweeps at home so that I can go see the game in person.

And, I'd love to face St. Louis in the third round because then, that means they whacked two other teams for us. Last year they took care of SJ for us and SJ for some weird reason causes us problems like how Shane Doan causes us problems.

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03-29-2013, 01:19 AM
  #93
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After games of 3/28/13:

Target is still 51 points - requiring a record of 5-9-1.

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04-01-2013, 01:03 AM
  #94
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After games of 3/31/13:

It was a good day for the Kings' chances. The target for 8th has fallen again, this time to 50 points (three teams would be piled up in 9th - Columbus, Dallas, and Edmonton, with Nashville and Phoenix at 47).

That translates to the Kings needing a record of 3-9-1 (a percentage of .291) to take 8th.

The target to take over 4th would be 61 points, or a record of 9-4 (a percentage of .692).

Still a game out of being able to catch the projected 70-point finish of Anaheim, but that doesn't take any of the head-to-head games into account.

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04-04-2013, 01:27 PM
  #95
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After games of 4/3/13:

The target for clear 8th has risen again, this time to 53 points. That translates out to a record of 5-7 in the remaining 12 games.

The target for 4th is currently 60 points, a record of 8-3-1 (a percentage of .708).

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04-04-2013, 05:27 PM
  #96
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Thanks for doing this, it has been invaluable in helping me keep my sanity after losses

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Old
04-04-2013, 06:07 PM
  #97
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I appreciate it also, especially coming down to these last games.

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Old
04-05-2013, 01:06 PM
  #98
HansH
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Thanks for doing this, it has been invaluable in helping me keep my sanity after losses
Quote:
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I appreciate it also, especially coming down to these last games.
Y'all are quite welcome - thanks for letting me know I'm not just annoying everyone with this

After games of 4/4/13:

As it will do, the target points has shifted again -- but this time in the Kings' favor, falling to 52 points. That translates to a need for the Kings to go 3-7-1 in the remaining 11 games (a percentage of .318).

While the Kings are in 4th according to the standings right now, they currently project to 5th place because of San Jose's game in hand and slightly better percentage at this moment. To catch San Jose for 4th and home ice in the first round, the Kings will need 60 points, or a record of 7-3-1 in the remaining games (a percentage of .682)... current projections have them going 6-4-1.

And the Kings STILL need their regional rivals to slip a full game off their pace in order for the head-to-head games between them to be enough to reel them into sight for the Pacific title... if the Kings were to go 11-0.

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04-05-2013, 02:26 PM
  #99
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Y'all are quite welcome - thanks for letting me know I'm not just annoying everyone with this
Not at all. In fact this thread has become a must-read over the past two seasons to the point I'm disappointed when it's not updated right after the game.

And that's not meant as a slight against you, just how addicted I've become to seeing how we stack up in the playoff/division race due to your great work. I'm a stats junkie too, so kudos on the great work!

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04-05-2013, 02:31 PM
  #100
HansH
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Not at all. In fact this thread has become a must-read over the past two seasons to the point I'm disappointed when it's not updated right after the game.

And that's not meant as a slight against you, just how addicted I've become to seeing how we stack up in the playoff/division race due to your great work. I'm a stats junkie too, so kudos on the great work!
I took it exactly as you intended, thank you

You should have seen several years ago when I was writing two columns -- the Attendo-Meter (tracking North American minor pro attendance trends) and the Death Pool Report (collating whatever rumors and stories were floating around about North American minor pro franchise movement, folds, etc). Real life finally got in the way and I gave them both up a few years ago, but I still have the database that I use for these predictions.

Forgive me if this is against the rules, but here's the link to a crude interface to the attendance and scores data I've accumulated for the various leagues over the past 13 years or so: http://www.mib.org/~lennier/hockey/

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