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ATD 2013 Lineup Assassination Thread - Bob Cole Division

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Old
03-28-2013, 07:06 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Who were the all-stars in 1901? I have never seen one listed.
Can you tell me the names of the other defensemen against whom Stuart competed in the Western Pennsylvania Hockey League? This might give us some indication as to what his scoring actually meant. As far as I can tell, this was very much a bush league, but perhaps that is mistaken.

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Even if his peak is 4-5 years, how is that abnormally low for his era, but Conacher's 5 year peak isn't low for his era?
Again, the downslope of Conacher's peak is already accounted for in the VsX calculation when we take it out to seven seasons. Further questioning the path of his career would be redundant. We don't have anything resembling an empirical method for placing value on any of Stuart's seasons, but it should be pointed out that it is likely that he was only playing at a Hall of Fame level for the last 4-5 of them.

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03-28-2013, 07:12 AM
  #102
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Do you Quenneville would be willing and able to run Sandlin's system? (That is what your're planning on doing, right?)
Yes, Quenneville will most likely give it his own touch but 1-3-1 isnt that different from how quenneville runs hes teams.

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I still think Nystrom's offense is pretty lacking if you want the line to score much.
Oh definitly the scoring will come from the other two while Nystrom creates space for them, dig for pucks and gets eventual rebounds.

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How much ice time do you see the 4th line getting?
Depends on the opposition but my guess is you want my strategy if we meet

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Eh, versatility isn't what I think of when I think Probert. He's a good who has enough talent to take a shift on a 4th line here and not be blitzed, that's about it IMO
.

I meant versatile for a goon not that he is Syd Howe

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03-28-2013, 07:29 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Morenz was about average. 6' or 6'1" and 210 or 215 would be a fair adjustment.
I think 4 inches and 50 pounds is probably overdoing it with the adjustment here.

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03-28-2013, 08:35 AM
  #104
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Again, as I have already mentioned in the draft thread...my 1st line yes will be matching up against other teams top lines. I am trying something new in the ATD (as I have planned all along)

There is more then one way to skin a cat, and I feel like the ATD has become too robotic in it's way and thinking of "defending" a line. My top line has 2 of the best forecheckers of all time in Lindsay and Kennedy. My top line will forecheck and keep the puck in the opposing top lines end zone, which in return will drastically reduce the amount of scoring chances they have.

Lindsay and Kennedy forechecking will force top lines in playing more in their own zone, also Rousseau will be the 3rd man high for any times there is a counter attack.


It's then pick your poison for other teams, especially other team with a weak 2nd pairing. Do they use their top line to match up against the forechecking and offense of Lindsay and Kennedy and then have their 2nd pairing deal with Charlie Conacher and Denis Savard, or vise versa?

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03-28-2013, 09:01 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I think 4 inches and 50 pounds is probably overdoing it with the adjustment here.
How so? Morenz was average height and a little heavier than the average weight, right?

In today's NHL, how big would somebody be if they were average height and slightly above average weight? Between 6' and 6'1" is average height, isn't it? Average weight would be a little over 200, right?

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03-28-2013, 09:45 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
How so? Morenz was average height and a little heavier than the average weight, right?

In today's NHL, how big would somebody be if they were average height and slightly above average weight? Between 6' and 6'1" is average height, isn't it? Average weight would be a little over 200, right?
If Iginla wins the Stanley Cup with the Pens, does that mean I have to vote for the Mystery Alaskans to win the Milt Dunnell Cup?

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03-28-2013, 09:51 AM
  #107
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If Iginla wins the Stanley Cup with the Pens, does that mean I have to vote for the Mystery Alaskans to win the Milt Dunnell Cup?
No, because there's no projection here. Whatever he did at the point when he was drafted counts, nothing later! (Anything he does after that will count toward next year's draft considerations.)

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03-28-2013, 10:20 AM
  #108
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No, because there's no projection here. Whatever he did at the point when he was drafted counts, nothing later! (Anything he does after that will count toward next year's draft considerations.)
Being drafted is not the cut-off point for Iginla's career. Anything he has done this year is not a projection. He has accomplished it, so there's no reason not to count it.

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03-28-2013, 10:30 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by gmm View Post
If Iginla wins the Stanley Cup with the Pens, does that mean I have to vote for the Mystery Alaskans to win the Milt Dunnell Cup?
You have to vote us to win regardless...

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03-28-2013, 10:40 AM
  #110
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No, because there's no projection here. Whatever he did at the point when he was drafted counts, nothing later! (Anything he does after that will count toward next year's draft considerations.)
Is this really the rule? I was under the impression that you include everything that is done up to the point that you are voting...giving current players a chance to improve their resume some in the short time since they were drafted. Similar to what Dreakmur said below...

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Being drafted is not the cut-off point for Iginla's career. Anything he has done this year is not a projection. He has accomplished it, so there's no reason not to count it.

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03-28-2013, 10:44 AM
  #111
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I'm onboard with dreak and hockeytown. I thought it was up to the point when we vote.

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03-28-2013, 11:08 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Being drafted is not the cut-off point for Iginla's career. Anything he has done this year is not a projection. He has accomplished it, so there's no reason not to count it.
Yeah...that's how I see it, as well.

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03-28-2013, 11:18 AM
  #113
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I can see VanIs point tho... If we judge modern players based upon how they perform after they are drafted it becomes a bit like a lottery.

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03-28-2013, 11:29 AM
  #114
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I can see VanIs point tho... If we judge modern players based upon how they perform after they are drafted it becomes a bit like a lottery.
Yeah, let's guess what players will do the postseason after they are drafted! I am so in for that!

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03-28-2013, 11:37 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
I can see VanIs point tho... If we judge modern players based upon how they perform after they are drafted it becomes a bit like a lottery.
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
Yeah, let's guess what players will do the postseason after they are drafted! I am so in for that!
Isn't that a already known factor while drafting (or not drafting) a current player?

We are not assuming that Iginla will win the Stanley Cup and have that factor in while voting, but if he for example gets another high goal total and the season ends before we vote on playoff series, that would count because he has already accomplished it.

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03-28-2013, 12:25 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Isn't that a already known factor while drafting (or not drafting) a current player? We are not assuming that Iginla will win the Stanley Cup and have that factor in while voting, but if he for example gets another high goal total and the season ends before we vote on playoff series, that would count because he has already accomplished it.
Agreed. It would be an accomplished feat. You sacrifice career value when you draft an active player, but you have a small chance he might have a good regular season or playoffs and slightly increase his career value. No assumptions are being made here.

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03-28-2013, 12:27 PM
  #117
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I can see VanIs point tho... If we judge modern players based upon how they perform after they are drafted it becomes a bit like a lottery.
That's a risk whoever selects them has to take. Whoever owns Crosby is getting a nice return on their investment, and my Joe Thornton is poised to add another top 10 in assists, and my Ovechkin at least a top 10 in goals and probably points the way he's turned it on right now.

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03-28-2013, 12:46 PM
  #118
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That's a risk whoever selects them has to take. Whoever owns Crosby is getting a nice return on their investment, and my Joe Thornton is poised to add another top 10 in assists, and my Ovechkin at least a top 10 in goals and probably points the way he's turned it on right now.
Hobnob's metaphor is horrible though. You have almost no chance of winning in a lottery. It's like drafting Crosby, Ovechkin, or Thornton before they played in the NHL. The risk you're taking is very minimal. They've had good careers and an off 48 game season will not totally negate their career value.

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03-28-2013, 01:11 PM
  #119
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Hobnob's metaphor is horrible though. You have almost no chance of winning in a lottery. It's like drafting Crosby, Ovechkin, or Thornton before they played in the NHL. The risk you're taking is very minimal. They've had good careers and an off 48 game season will not totally negate their career value.
I thought we drafted player for their career value up until when they were drafted. If I knew a player could suddenly boost their career value in the middle of the playoffs I would certainly gone for more modern players.

Edit: No its not horrible as this is not a million dollar lottery Im talking about but a low risk 1000 dollar lottery with several small prices.

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03-28-2013, 01:17 PM
  #120
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I thought we drafted player for their career value up until when they were drafted. If I knew a player could suddenly boost their career value in the middle of the playoffs I would certainly gone for more modern players.

Edit: No its not horrible as this is not a million dollar lottery Im talking about but a low risk 1000 dollar lottery with several small prices.
Most of the time it's probably not going to make much of a difference.

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03-28-2013, 01:25 PM
  #121
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Can you tell me the names of the other defensemen against whom Stuart competed in the Western Pennsylvania Hockey League? This might give us some indication as to what his scoring actually meant. As far as I can tell, this was very much a bush league, but perhaps that is mistaken.
The pro leagues were shallow, so it's tough to take too much out of his statistics there, but he wasn't in the pro leagues until 1902-03. He played in the CAHL from 1898 through 1902.

My question about the all-star teams is based on my understanding that there were no published all-star teams before the 1905. If there were no all-star teams, how does he get named to one?

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Again, the downslope of Conacher's peak is already accounted for in the VsX calculation when we take it out to seven seasons. Further questioning the path of his career would be redundant. We don't have anything resembling an empirical method for placing value on any of Stuart's seasons, but it should be pointed out that it is likely that he was only playing at a Hall of Fame level for the last 4-5 of them.
The whole point is that you said a 7 year peak was normal for Conacher's era, so we shouldn't dock him for lacking longevity.... yet you dock Hod Stuart for lacking longevity.

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03-28-2013, 01:28 PM
  #122
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Most of the time it's probably not going to make much of a difference.
Yeah, even if Iginla sneaks into the top-10 in gaols again this season, how much does it increase his career value? Not a tonne. If he can get into the top-5, it might be a different story, but unless he really goes wild on Crosby's wing, I don't see him adding much to his value.

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03-28-2013, 03:41 PM
  #123
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Yeah, even if Iginla sneaks into the top-10 in gaols again this season, how much does it increase his career value? Not a tonne. If he can get into the top-5, it might be a different story, but unless he really goes wild on Crosby's wing, I don't see him adding much to his value.
But Im not just talking about Iginla

tbh this discussion should have its own thread this is not the place for it.

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03-28-2013, 04:18 PM
  #124
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Well, I suppose I'll take the first stab at this lineup.


Frist Line:
This is easily the best line in our division. Gordie Howe is just a force in every aspect of the game. Marcel Dionne is one of the more under-rated guys in these draft - a lot of that has to do with some unfair criticism about his play-off resume - and I think he's a good offensive 1st line center. Playing beside Gordie Howe really helps to mitigate a lot of the issues people may have with him. I'm not a big Robitaille fan, but I think he's in a very good position to succeed. He can let Dionne and Howe create all the chances, which will allow him to do what he does best. Very well built line.

Second Line:
As I'm sure you're well aware, I do not like your 2nd line at all. Tommy Dunderdale is tough to get an exact read on, and that's from a guy who owned him last a few years ago. He's probably a below average 2nd line center - the big challenge with him is that he's tough to build around. Bun Cook and Bobby Bauer would both be fine in supporting 2nd line roles - if they are playing with an offensive stud, they can chip in, but they can't really create a whole lot on their own. In terms of chemistry, it's a pretty well-constructed line - the parts do fit together well, but they're bargain basement parts.

Third Line:
I like this line. Herbie Lewis and Larry Aurie are both guys I wanted - they're both well-rounded guys who can bring a little bit of everything. Cooney Weiland is a decent 2-way playmaking center. Are you planning to use them as a shut-down line?

Fourth Line:
I really, really liked the Langenbrunner pick. Honestly, he was not even on our radar, but he definitely should have been. McVeigh and Sutter are kind of "meh", but it's a 4th line, and it's pretty decent.


First Pair:
Like us, you didn't get a great #1, so you tried to get a good #2. It's not a "wow" pairing or anything, but it is pretty solid and steady.

Second Pair:
Larry Murphy is an absolute beast as a #3 guy. He's an excellent and consistent offensive contributor, and without being a defensive liability. McNamara, however, doesn't belong on a 2nd pair. He brings a dimension that Murphy needs, so I don't mind the fit, but he certainly drags this pairing down. With an awesome #3 and a very weak #4, this ends up being a decent enough pair.

Third Pair:
I really like Shore as a 3rd pairing guy... and I really hate Lake. Like your 2nd pair, this one evens out to pretty average.


Goaltending:
In a division with Brodeur and Durnan ahead of him, I think Lehman's in tough to keep up. I like his puck-handling.


Coaching:
I like Art Ross as a coach here. Is he the 2nd best coach in the division? I wouldn't mind seeing an Art Ross vs. Mike Keenan discussion.




Thoughts:
- I like the Weiland line more than the Dunderdale line. Any possibility of switching them?
- based on your personnel, your PP should be strong, but I'm not sure about the PK... who's on your PK?

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03-28-2013, 04:47 PM
  #125
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Cincinatti Review

Here goes

Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Cincinnati Fireworks




GM: Markrander87
Coach: Mike Kennan
Captain: Ted Kennedy
Alternate Captains: Mike Grant, Eddie Gerard, Charlie Conacher

Ted Lindsay - Ted Kennedy (C) - Bobby Rousseau
Harry Watson - Denis Savard - Charlie Conacher (A)
Patrick Marleau - Henrik Sedin - Wilf Paiement
Sami Pahlsson - Steve Kasper - Cully Wilson (defensive zone draw line when 1st line needs rest)


Eddie Gerard (A) - Ken Reardon
Gennady Tsygankov - Mike Grant (A)
Bill Hajt - Lennart Svedberg

George Hainsworth
Rogie Vachon


Spares: LW/C Lynn Patrick, D Jack "Tex" Evans, LW Dennis Hextall, F Patrick Sharp

PP 1:

Lindsay – Savard – Conacher
Svedberg – Rousseau

PP 2:

Sedin - Kennedy - Marleau
Gerard - Grant

PK 1:

Kasper - Rousseau
Hajt - Gerard

PK 2:

Kennedy - Pahlsson
Reardon- Tysgankov
Coaching and Leadership

Mike Keenan is definitely a good coach here if you build the right kind of team. Any players with delicate feelings would not handle Keenan well at all - the man believed in motivating players by making them hate the coach. IMO, despite what a laughing stock he became towards the end of his career, he should be in the HHOF for his contributions to the modern short shift game. Mike Keenan liked aggressive character players and didn't mind his players taking penalties, so he'll love guys like Lindsay, Kennedy, and Reardon. Softies like Rousseau and Sedin could end up in Keenan's doghouse though.

Lots of leadership on your roster - Kennedy and Gerard both captained dynasties, and Lindsay captained the second half of the Wings dynasty after Abel was traded. All three of them ooze leadership - I guess you didn't give Lindsay a letter because you wanted to spread them around the line up more? I'd still probably do it. Mike Grant is fine as an A. Not sure if Charlie Conacher brings much leadership, but you don't really need it.

Forwards

An unconventional setup, so hard to review, but I'll try.

First off - I'll get this out of the way - if you want to use the first line as a checking line, you really should do more original research on Ted Kennedy. I highly suspect that Kennedy was the top defensive center of the 1940s dynasty, and if so, he's obviously a good choice to check opposing top centers here. But more research would really be helpful there. Kennedy was a slow skater though, so he might still have a little trouble defending fast centers in open ice. But we do know he was gritty and that his faceoff prowess is legendary, so he should be fairly strong at checking in his own zone. It's very possible that Kennedy is more than "fairly strong" defensively in his own zone, this is where more research would help.

Ted Lindsay played the majority of his prime with Gordie Howe on the other wing, and he doesn't really have anyone like Howe here. Lindsay/Howe absolutely overwhelmed opponents with their speed and aggression. Lindsay's speed really is underrated in the ATD. If there's a downside to your top line offensively, it's that Lindsay doesn't really have a linemate to take full advantage of the speed part of his game - Kennedy was slow, and Rousseau's offense isn't scaring anyone. And like I said elsewhere, while Kennedy was absolutely a conscientious back checker, I don't think he was good enough to be a shut down guy. On the other hand, he's going to be better both offensively and defensively than the majority of scoring line RWs he faces, so it could work in a strength-vs-strength way. '

Rousseau is a guy who we've apparently been underrating defensively in the ATD - he was a strong two-way player and back checker, though he was notably soft. I have mixed feelings about him here. His defensive ability will definitely help if you want to use this as a checking line, but like I said in my review of Lindsay - Ted Lindsay seems more of a "win a strength vs strength battle" type of guy than a checker. Rousseau's softness won't hurt you much next to guys like Lindsay and Kennedy, but I don't think I'd want him checking a left wing who was known to be physically aggressive (good thing Ted Lindsay is his teammate, right?). Offensively, Rousseau is obviously sub par for a first line, but he does bring defense and is a good enough playmaker to get the puck to his more talented linemates.

Second line is obviously more talented than most second lines. Denis Savard is a more well-rounded offensive player than Joe Primeau, but he'll still be able to get the puck to Charlie Conacher, who is a beast of a man. I would have loved to see Conacher on the same line as Lindsay - Conacher absolutely could take on the heavyweight fighters Lindsay couldn't, but I don't know if you have the right centers for that to happen. Harry Watson is a solid enough second line glue guy who brings a lot of toughness and some defense.

I'm curious if you've considered a Lindsay - Savard - Conacher, Watson - Kennedy - Rousseau set up? That first line isn't that great defensively, but that would be the job of the 2nd and 4th lines.

Third line is definitely unconventional with Henrik Sedin there. Paiement is the tough guy and Marleau is solid defensively. Paiement is the only traditional bottom 6er on the line, and he's a good one, Sturminator made a good point last draft that we were previously underrating Paeiment's offense due to a lack of top 10s. If you had a less demanding coach, I'd suggest scratching Marleau and replacing him with Lynn Patrick, who I think is a much better offensive player and more capable of taking advantage of Sedin's playmaking. But Lynn "twinkletoes" Patrick and Henrik Sedin on one line is probably more softness than Keenan is willing to tolerate.

4th line is one of those defensively specialized lines that I wouldn't give a lot of ice time to, but they can take defensive zone draws and do some checking when the Kennedy line is unavailable.

You have a good mix of spares.

Defense

You waited longer than most to draft your defesemen, but you managed to pull off some shrewd trades to keep them from being a big liability.

Eddie Gerard is a weak #1, but he can pass for one, and I was seriously considering drafting him to anchor my second pairing before you trading up for him. Very good move to trade up for him as he's probably the last defenseman drafted who can even pass for a #1. Ken Reardon is a solid, though injury prone #2. This pairing won't create that much offense, but they'll be fine in transition, and they are very good defensively, with Gerard's smarts complimenting Reardon's aggression.

I think Mike Grant is probably a good #3, but wish you had made some kind of profile on him - he's still very much a mystery man. I think Tsygankov would probably be best as a #5 - he really did struggle in the Summit Series, but maybe I'm looking too much into an 8 game sample.

I think much more highly of Svedberg than Dreakmur does, and I agree that he's a fine #4 who leans more towards offense. Hajt is something of a penalty killing specialist, which means he's below par at even strength, but probably not enough to hurt you.

Jack Evans might be a better defenseman than Hajt - either way - he could easily play a regular shift, which is good, since Reardon will spend some time on the IR.

Goaltending

I see Hainsworth as below average, but not bottom of the barrel. Somewhere between 20-25 all time. He's no Martin Brodeur or Bill Durnan, but there was definitely a lively Lehman vs Hainsworth debate during the history board's goalies project.

Vachon is one of the best backups.

Special teams

First PP seems pretty average with Lindsay and Conacher as strengths, but the point men below average. Don't get me wrong - you absolutely did the right thing in trading up to get Svedberg for your PP, but he's far from elite as a PP QB at this level.

Second PP is pretty good, but with all the forward talent you have, you couldn't get someone better than Marleau there?

PK defensemen are good, you have a lot of forwards who can PK, but none of them scream particularly elite at it.

Overall

I think the fate of this team could very well be determined by what you can dig up about Ted Kennedy and Mike Grant. You need to establish that Kennedy was, in fact, the top defensive center of a dynasty for your top line to be really credible as top matchup line. And Mike Grant really needs to be established as a strong #3 for the second pairing to be anything but below average.

That said, you have a ton of forward talent that very well could overwhelm teams with weaker lower pairings regardless of what you find out about those guys. And you're a team loaded with leadership and guys known for making their teammates want to play better.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 03-28-2013 at 05:20 PM.
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