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Old
03-27-2013, 07:47 PM
  #251
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Originally Posted by Daz28 View Post
A permanent coach would be the start. Then whatever players we end up with can try to find a niche in his system. All that will happen before any identity will ever be found. That's why I'm hating that we MIGHT be going into the draft w/o a coach. We won't be a team until we have everything in place(GM, coach, Asst, captain, goaltender). All we have right now is owner, and all his decisions will be far more influential to our identity than who we draft. I get your point, but that's so, so far down the road.
That's exactly what I said...

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03-27-2013, 07:59 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Myllz View Post
That's exactly what I said...
Then great minds think alike...

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Old
03-27-2013, 08:42 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post

Not its not.
of course it is... the relevant part of this drama is that it take elite talent to build a long term contender... and elite talent comes from the top of the draft.

the fact that Anaheim traded for Pronger is immaterial to the fact that Pronger was the key to that team's cup run.

the trade doesn't change the fact that the key piece was a top pick.





Quote:
Wrong yet again.

When I was talking about teams intentionally losing or icing crappy teams. I was referring to the idea some posters had of gutting the roster then icing crappy teams for several years in a row. All with the idea of getting a bunch of high draft picks several years in a row (like the Pens for example).
that's the point... no one ever said such a thing. People referred to the Pen's and you built the straw man.

the irony is watching you defend your own position by saying "no one ever said..." it's funny watching someone use the reciprocal straw man on you

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Old
03-28-2013, 03:54 AM
  #254
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To be fair, there is a pick the bones of the Sabres carcass thread in the trade board. Trading people for prospects would likely lead to a bad team for a couple seasons as they mature. Getting a good pick requires losing.

Either way, all this tank talk is depressing. I still think we can make the playoffs this year, and if we don't I'm sure there will be lots of happy posters in this thread.

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03-28-2013, 05:11 AM
  #255
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Originally Posted by wunderpanda View Post
To be fair, there is a pick the bones of the Sabres carcass thread in the trade board. Trading people for prospects would likely lead to a bad team for a couple seasons as they mature. Getting a good pick requires losing.

Either way, all this tank talk is depressing. I still think we can make the playoffs this year, and if we don't I'm sure there will be lots of happy posters in this thread.
Make the playoffs? To what end? To be slaughtered by the Pens in the first round? That'll make a late season "run" and a sacrificing of a top pick worth it! YAY!

Seriously, Pittsburgh, as if they needed it, acquired Morrow and Iginla this week. LOL! They should just get a first round bye and spare whoever lands in 8th the humiliation.

If you are interested in a Cup, you should hope the Sabres land in 30th place by seasons end, because this VERY short-term feel-good nonsense about landing in 8th is tantamount to a heroin addicts temporary fix so they can feel better for 10 minutes. Short-term happy, long term suicide. Makes no sense.

This team in it's current form, isn't remotely capable of playing for a Cup, so what's the point of being in for just one round? This team isn't even as good as the Sabres team that lost in the first round a few years ago.


Last edited by Squantosawuss: 03-28-2013 at 05:18 AM.
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Old
03-28-2013, 08:33 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
We are getting off track. My intial point was in response to your factoid about top 3 picks. It was this, 4 of the last 7 Cup winners built their teams in part by sucking and drafting 1 or more star players with high picks. 3 of the 7 them did not. Its really that simple.

If the point of this thread is about tanking to rebuild the team then the Ducks, Wings and Bruins are not relevant. Because thats not how those teams got their core group and star players.
The Ducks did use top 10 pick Lupul and 9th overall pick Smid to land Pronger (as well as the pick that Edmonton used to drafte Eberle) in trade. They also benefited from one of the best UFA signings of all time in landing Scott Niedermayer. It does not change that they don't get Pronger without having to give up significant prospect talent which shy of moving Grigorenko, Buffalo doesn't really have at this time. The stocks are thin.

The Wings talent was groomed under the likes of Yzerman, as a player, whetting their beaks for years in a position to succeed. The fingerprints of the Wings terrible years are still on that team.

The Bruins are in their position after some exceptional UFA signings. The league has shifted dramatically since guys like Chara hit UFA, teams aren't letting their key contributors go any longer so it seems thin that Buffalo could manage to pry a Norris-calibre defenseman off another roster for nothing but cash at this time. And that's something they need -- not one with Norris potential if he gets his head out of his tail, but one playing up to that immediately.

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03-28-2013, 10:25 AM
  #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
The Ducks did use top 10 pick Lupul and 9th overall pick Smid to land Pronger (as well as the pick that Edmonton used to drafte Eberle) in trade. They also benefited from one of the best UFA signings of all time in landing Scott Niedermayer. It does not change that they don't get Pronger without having to give up significant prospect talent which shy of moving Grigorenko, Buffalo doesn't really have at this time. The stocks are thin.
I know they used those high picks as part of the trade for Pronger. My issue is with the obsession some have with top 5 picks. I guess I should change that to top 3 picks with some of the recent postings. By their logic the 10th and 9th overall picks are not good enough to rebuild your team so by extension they won't get you Pronger in a trade.

The problem I'm having is some are starting to set the bar so high for the types of picks we need to rebuild that they will never see us being able to so. It frames the debate into a somewhat ridiculous idea that we need to try and be the very worst team in the NHL for several years in a row.

As I've pointed out several times, the teams that do that are generally struggling financially or have had crappy owners/management. That doesn't mean we can't trade proven players away for emerging players and reset the clock on the team's window for success. But its far more likely if we do that, and do it right, that we will not be down at the bottom for very long, if at all. Thats not to say we will be a playoff teram right away. But we aren't likely to be a bottom feeder drafting in the top 5.



Quote:
The Wings talent was groomed under the likes of Yzerman, as a player, whetting their beaks for years in a position to succeed. The fingerprints of the Wings terrible years are still on that team.

The Bruins are in their position after some exceptional UFA signings. The league has shifted dramatically since guys like Chara hit UFA, teams aren't letting their key contributors go any longer so it seems thin that Buffalo could manage to pry a Norris-calibre defenseman off another roster for nothing but cash at this time. And that's something they need -- not one with Norris potential if he gets his head out of his tail, but one playing up to that immediately.
Fair points and I agree its much harder now to add high end talent via free agency. Thats why I expect trades and drafting to be the way we get back on track. But as I mentioned I just don't see this franchise beeing bad enough to have multiple top 5 picks (or top 3) as is the obsession of some on here.

I do see us trading away 1 or 2 of our older players for Hodgson types at the deadline and in the summer. I just don't see that leading to a crappy enough team to be drafting top 5. But top 10 is certainly a more realistic expectation.

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Old
03-28-2013, 10:36 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
of course it is... the relevant part of this drama is that it take elite talent to build a long term contender... and elite talent comes from the top of the draft.

the fact that Anaheim traded for Pronger is immaterial to the fact that Pronger was the key to that team's cup run.

the trade doesn't change the fact that the key piece was a top pick.


Its incredible watching you continually twist what I say to try and fit your talking points.

I pointed out how the previous 7 Cup winners acquired their talent and if it is or isn't relevant to the Sabres situation. Yet somehow you keep trying to turn this into me saying talent isn't acquired at the top of the draft or that you don't need elite talent to build a long term contender. Neither of which were things I posted.


Quote:
that's the point... no one ever said such a thing. People referred to the Pen's and you built the straw man.

the irony is watching you defend your own position by saying "no one ever said..." it's funny watching someone use the reciprocal straw man on you
Yes some have. The fact that you continue to refuse to accept this is not my problem.

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Old
03-28-2013, 10:58 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Yes some have. The fact that you continue to refuse to accept this is not my problem.
the fact that you failed to respond to continual requests to back up this claim is a problem. Clearly you believe you can simply make stuff up, and pretend it's not an issue.

let me know when you want to man up with all the posts where someone believes the Sabres should INTENTIONALLY lose... and do so for SEVERAL seasons.

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Old
03-28-2013, 11:14 AM
  #260
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Semantics. You know as well as I there could be a wall of posts hoping for players to be moved, or goalies started, so that the team could be likelier to lose. Nobody advocates Vanek popping one top shelf on Miller.

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03-28-2013, 11:37 AM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason View Post
Semantics. You know as well as I there could be a wall of posts hoping for players to be moved, or goalies started, so that the team could be likelier to lose. Nobody advocates Vanek popping one top shelf on Miller.
I think it has more to do with being two faced...

When Joshjull refers to trading Miller, Vanek, etc... it's under the guise of ONE failed season... and the results of anyone subsequent years would NOT be intentional.

if anyone else suggests moving said players and building through the draft he frames that as "intetionally losing for several years"

he's been called out on it multiple times over the last few weeks and has never presented the evidence of anyone advocating intentionally losing.

Quote:
When I was talking about teams intentionally losing or icing crappy teams. I was referring to the idea some posters had of gutting the roster then icing crappy teams for several years in a row. All with the idea of getting a bunch of high draft picks several years in a row (like the Pens for example). I said no teams intentionally do that. When that happens its usually due to crappy ownership/management or financial instability. You disagreed and we had several back and forths on that.

But I have NEVER argued teams don't make the decision in a single season to trade away players at the deadline because the season is lost. Nor have I ever expressed an aversion to the Sabres doing it.

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03-28-2013, 11:45 AM
  #262
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I know they used those high picks as part of the trade for Pronger. My issue is with the obsession some have with top 5 picks. I guess I should change that to top 3 picks with some of the recent postings. By their logic the 10th and 9th overall picks are not good enough to rebuild your team so by extension they won't get you Pronger in a trade.

The problem I'm having is some are starting to set the bar so high for the types of picks we need to rebuild that they will never see us being able to so. It frames the debate into a somewhat ridiculous idea that we need to try and be the very worst team in the NHL for several years in a row.

As I've pointed out several times, the teams that do that are generally struggling financially or have had crappy owners/management. That doesn't mean we can't trade proven players away for emerging players and reset the clock on the team's window for success. But its far more likely if we do that, and do it right, that we will not be down at the bottom for very long, if at all. Thats not to say we will be a playoff teram right away. But we aren't likely to be a bottom feeder drafting in the top 5.





Fair points and I agree its much harder now to add high end talent via free agency. Thats why I expect trades and drafting to be the way we get back on track. But as I mentioned I just don't see this franchise beeing bad enough to have multiple top 5 picks (or top 3) as is the obsession of some on here.

I do see us trading away 1 or 2 of our older players for Hodgson types at the deadline and in the summer. I just don't see that leading to a crappy enough team to be drafting top 5. But top 10 is certainly a more realistic expectation.
Once they acknowledge fully they're rebuilding and make those moves, there will be definite growing pains. How long those pains extend will depend on who they manage to draft or acquire in trade as well as how the players they have develop. They have flirted with being terrible at times over several seasons, it's not a big leap to make the moves to strip back what they have and start over.

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03-28-2013, 11:49 AM
  #263
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The main point of tanking in this instance is that this team and it's "core" aren't working. Gutting it might be extreme but there needs to be a tear down and attempt to build with fresh talent.

Is it guaranteed to work? No, of course not. But wouldn't you rather try than stick with what hasn't gotten us a Cup to this point?

I'ma hang up and listen.

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Old
03-28-2013, 01:43 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by Squantosawuss View Post
Make the playoffs? To what end? To be slaughtered by the Pens in the first round? That'll make a late season "run" and a sacrificing of a top pick worth it! YAY!

Seriously, Pittsburgh, as if they needed it, acquired Morrow and Iginla this week. LOL! They should just get a first round bye and spare whoever lands in 8th the humiliation.

If you are interested in a Cup, you should hope the Sabres land in 30th place by seasons end, because this VERY short-term feel-good nonsense about landing in 8th is tantamount to a heroin addicts temporary fix so they can feel better for 10 minutes. Short-term happy, long term suicide. Makes no sense.
Maybe all the teams in the East other than Pittsburgh, Boston and Montreal will decide to tank.

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03-28-2013, 04:29 PM
  #265
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Battle of the Tanks tonight.
No Vanek, and Markstrom starting to get adjusted to the NHL, I think our tank wins out.


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03-28-2013, 04:41 PM
  #266
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post

The Bruins are in their position after some exceptional UFA signings. The league has shifted dramatically since guys like Chara hit UFA, teams aren't letting their key contributors go any longer so it seems thin that Buffalo could manage to pry a Norris-calibre defenseman off another roster for nothing but cash at this time. And that's something they need -- not one with Norris potential if he gets his head out of his tail, but one playing up to that immediately.
Tell me about it. The first few seasons after the lockout there were many star players available and crazy money was spent. Nowadays practically every team is doing whatever it takes to keep their star players and look to cut cap elsewhere. Chicago moved its secondary pieces in order to keep Kane/Toews/Hossa/Seabrook/Keith. The Pens let Jordan Staal go so they could keep Crosby and Malkin at over 17 mil for the pair. Anaheim just gave Perry and Getzlaf over 8 per to keep them. The Sabres let not one but two "star" players / #1 centers go in the 07 off season. This free agency, the best two centers are going to be Derek Roy and Mike Ribeiro. The overall "gem" of free agency this year will be Jarome Iginla, who will not only be very selective of where he signs, but he will demand top dollar and is nowhere near the player he once was. What advantage are we getting with our Pegula bucks if there isn't any elite free agents to sign?!

This is why I cannot fathom the idea of letting Vanek go, our best forward and only legitimate 1st line forward. You let him go for picks and prospects and then what? Overpay a 2nd liner who isn't even as good as Vanek because he's the best player on the market? Hope the prospects and picks you get from trading a 35 goal scorer pan out ? The key to building a team is keeping your marquee talent on your team and trade the secondary pieces and draft well enough to replace those guys from within on cheap contracts or ECLs. Vaneks 29, give him 6 years and re-sign him. Trade Pominville and Miller, try to retool within 2-3 years if not sooner and compete with Vanek as one of your forwards. We need to add a legit 1st liner to play with Vanek, not trade our only one away and pray we are bad enough to get a top 3 pick and get a player who may or may not be able to replace the scoring you dealt away.

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Old
03-28-2013, 04:53 PM
  #267
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Originally Posted by MacOfNiagara View Post
Battle of the Tanks tonight.
No Vanek, and Markstrom starting to get adjusted to the NHL, I think our tank wins out.



Let's go Buffatank

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03-28-2013, 04:54 PM
  #268
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Tell me about it. The first few seasons after the lockout there were many star players available and crazy money was spent. Nowadays practically every team is doing whatever it takes to keep their star players and look to cut cap elsewhere. Chicago moved its secondary pieces in order to keep Kane/Toews/Hossa/Seabrook/Keith. The Pens let Jordan Staal go so they could keep Crosby and Malkin at over 17 mil for the pair. Anaheim just gave Perry and Getzlaf over 8 per to keep them. The Sabres let not one but two "star" players / #1 centers go in the 07 off season. This free agency, the best two centers are going to be Derek Roy and Mike Ribeiro. The overall "gem" of free agency this year will be Jarome Iginla, who will not only be very selective of where he signs, but he will demand top dollar and is nowhere near the player he once was. What advantage are we getting with our Pegula bucks if there isn't any elite free agents to sign?!

This is why I cannot fathom the idea of letting Vanek go, our best forward and only legitimate 1st line forward. You let him go for picks and prospects and then what? Overpay a 2nd liner who isn't even as good as Vanek because he's the best player on the market? Hope the prospects and picks you get from trading a 35 goal scorer pan out ? The key to building a team is keeping your marquee talent on your team and trade the secondary pieces and draft well enough to replace those guys from within on cheap contracts or ECLs. Vaneks 29, give him 6 years and re-sign him. Trade Pominville and Miller, try to retool within 2-3 years if not sooner and compete with Vanek as one of your forwards. We need to add a legit 1st liner to play with Vanek, not trade our only one away and pray we are bad enough to get a top 3 pick and get a player who may or may not be able to replace the scoring you dealt away.
Agreed.

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03-28-2013, 06:22 PM
  #269
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Old school tank

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03-28-2013, 09:48 PM
  #270
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Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Week Outlook

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 32 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next 4 games are:

3/26: @Tampa Bay (14-27pts) - Result = L
3/28: @Florida (15-24pts)
3/30: Washington (11-29pts)
3/31: Boston (4-43pts)
4/02: @Pittsburgh (1-48pts)


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 5 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 16 games and have gone 7-6-3, and 4-4-2 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 15 games and the Sabres were to go 7-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 46 points and most likely finish 12th in the Conference (38% Chance, or a 84% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 5/8 range for 12th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .368 and a point percentage of .474. Of the remaining 5 away games, the trend would show a record of 2-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 6-6-3, or 45 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 46% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 24% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .113 (from .353 to .438), or roughly only 1~2 game(s) better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 77%, from .353 to .625 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .333 pace, say 5-8-3 or 6-9-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 50% (53% & 57%) chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 15 games. 52 points would mean a 55.8% chance, 53 a 78.4% chance, and 54 a 92.6% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  1. Winning 11 of the 15 games which is about .750 hockey
  2. Winning 2 wins out of every 3 games for the rest of the year
  3. Or at least points in 80% of our final games (10 wins, 2 OTLs).
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 93% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .600 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 15.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 30% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I see us going probably 1-3 in our next 4 (Up to the trade deadline) losing to Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, and beating Florida in OT/SO. I think we finish the final 15 games 5-8-2, so 99% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Of note however, the difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 74%, 40%, and 10% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 99%, 85%, and 46% shot at a top 5 pick. So while one win may not seem like much, it could mean the difference between getting Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin, or not getting one of them at all.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 59% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


=========
Note from earlier:
Update please! I enjoy reading these.

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03-28-2013, 10:05 PM
  #271
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Updated Outlook


Current Week

As of right now, we sit at 31 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 34 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.2% chance of making the playoffs. Accuscore has us at a 5.1% chance of making it. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:


3/26: @Tampa Bay - Result = L
3/28: @Florida - Result = L
3/30: Washington
3/31: Boston
4/02: @Pittsburgh


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 4 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 17 games and have gone 7-6-4, and 4-3-3 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 14 games and the Sabres were to go 6-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 45 points and most likely finish 13th in the Conference (45% Chance, or a 61% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 4~6 range for 13th place in the Conference

Accuscore has us projected to finish 19-22-7 for a total of 45 points.

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .350 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 4 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 5-6-3, or 44 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 49% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 32% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.


***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .59 (from .353 to .412), or roughly only 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 83%, from .353 to .647 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .350 pace, say 5-8-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 61% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 14 games. 52 points would mean a 57.4% chance, 53 a 79.0% chance, and 54 a 91.5% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 11 of the 14 games which is about .800 hockey
  • Getting 4 out of every 5 points available
  • Losing ONLY 3 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 94% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .650 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 14.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 33% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
  1. Florida
  2. Colorado
  3. Philadelphia
  4. Buffalo
  5. Calgary
  6. Columbus
Meaning the Sabres would have a 10.7% shot at winning the lottery

--------------------

My Prediction

It's a rough road ahead, especially our next 7 games. We could be looking at a pretty big losing streak as we face some of the top teams of the Eastern Conference. I think we finish the final 14 games 4-7-3, so 97% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

The difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 65%, 30%, and 8% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 97%, 79%, and 40% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 50% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs


Last edited by sjci: 03-29-2013 at 12:51 AM. Reason: Added Predicted Draft standings and corrected Sabres point total from 30 to 31
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Old
03-28-2013, 10:18 PM
  #272
sabresfan129103
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sjci is the man.

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Old
03-28-2013, 10:40 PM
  #273
Royisgone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Updated Outlook


Current Week

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 34 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.2% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:

*Will update with accuscore when posted*

3/26: @Tampa Bay - Result = L
3/28: @Florida - Result = L
3/30: Washington
3/31: Boston
4/02: @Pittsburgh


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 4 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 17 games and have gone 7-6-4, and 4-3-3 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 14 games and the Sabres were to go 6-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 45 points and most likely finish 13th in the Conference (45% Chance, or a 61% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 4~6 range for 13th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .350 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 4 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 5-6-3, or 44 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 49% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 32% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .59 (from .353 to .412), or roughly only 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 83%, from .353 to .647 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .350 pace, say 5-8-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 61% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 14 games. 52 points would mean a 57.4% chance, 53 a 79.0% chance, and 54 a 91.5% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 11 of the 14 games which is about .800 hockey
  • Getting 4 out of every 5 points available
  • Losing ONLY 3 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 94% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .650 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 14.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 33% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

It's a rough road ahead, especially our next 7 games. We could be looking at a pretty big losing streak as we face some of the top teams of the Eastern Conference. I think we finish the final 14 games 4-7-3, so 97% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

The difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 65%, 30%, and 8% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 97%, 79%, and 40% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 50% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs
It's amazing how a game or two extra in the win or loss column radically alters the odds of a top 3 pick. A single, random, meaningless win could cost us a top 3 pick.

If we do some substantial selling at the deadline, the wheels could truly come off this thing big time just as we head into a tough stretch of schedule.

Good timing!

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Old
03-28-2013, 10:52 PM
  #274
EichHart
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Updated Outlook


Current Week

As of right now, we sit at 30 points with 9 Regulation/OT wins in 34 games. 8th Place NYR has/will have 35 points with 13 Regulation/OT wins in 33 games. At the moment, according to SCS, we have a 3.2% chance of making the playoffs. This week's games are the key to how we finish, if we're sellers/buyers, and if we see any changes in GM/Coach in the off-season. Our next games are:

*Will update with accuscore when posted*

3/26: @Tampa Bay - Result = L
3/28: @Florida - Result = L
3/30: Washington
3/31: Boston
4/02: @Pittsburgh


---------------------
Rest Of Season Situation
  • 10 Home Games
  • 4 Away Games
  • 8 Games are against the current top 5 teams in the Conference (Pitt, MTL, Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa)
Since Rolston has taken over, the Sabres have played 17 games and have gone 7-6-4, and 4-3-3 in the last 10. So if that ratio we're to carry over into the final 14 games and the Sabres were to go 6-6-2, that would mean the Sabres would finish with 45 points and most likely finish 13th in the Conference (45% Chance, or a 61% chance to finish 12th or worse), which would probably be a pick in the 4~6 range for 13th place in the Conference

Math

That Sabres have a current win percentage of .429 of Home Games, and a Point Percentage of .571. So of the remaining 10 home games, if the trend continues, the Sabres are looking at a record of 4-4-2.
Their away win percentage is .350 and a point percentage of .500. Of the remaining 4 away games, the trend would show a record of 1-2-1.
That would equal out to a record of 5-6-3, or 44 points. Missing the Playoffs with a 49% chance of finishing 13th in Conference, and a 32% chance of finishing 14th.

This record prediction is almost identical to the Rolston trend.

***Of Note, Ruff went 6-11 before getting fired. So the Sabres have improved their winning percentage by .59 (from .353 to .412), or roughly only 1 game better than they were trending on the year. However, their point percentage has increased 83%, from .353 to .647 under Rolston.***

------------------

Tank
If we were to play at around .350 pace, say 5-8-1, SCS has us at a slightly better than 61% chance of finishing 14th or worse in conference, which would most likely equate to a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs, most believe it would take around 52 points. For the Sabres to do that, they would need to win at least 10, preferably 11 of their final 14 games. 52 points would mean a 57.4% chance, 53 a 79.0% chance, and 54 a 91.5% chance. Getting to that 52 points would mean:
  • Winning 11 of the 14 games which is about .800 hockey
  • Getting 4 out of every 5 points available
  • Losing ONLY 3 or less games
Irrelevancy (9th/11th)
If we were to go on a run and finish between 48-51 points, there is about a 68% to 94% chance that we would finish between 9th and 12th. 48-51 points would be playing at about .650 hockey the rest of the way through. Which would mean about 8~10 wins in our final 14.

*If we finished with 51 points, there is about a 33% chance we could sneak into the 8th seed*

------------------

My Prediction

It's a rough road ahead, especially our next 7 games. We could be looking at a pretty big losing streak as we face some of the top teams of the Eastern Conference. I think we finish the final 14 games 4-7-3, so 97% chance at a bottom 3 Conference finish, and thus a good shot at a top 3 pick, at worst top 5.

The difference between 42, 44 ,and 46 points is the difference between 65%, 30%, and 8% shot of a top 3 pick, and a 97%, 79%, and 40% shot at a top 5 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 43 or less points: 50% or Better chance of top 3 pick
Sabres at 44-51 points: *No playoffs, picking between 4-13
Sabres at 52 or greater points: Playoffs
This guy Owns....

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Old
03-28-2013, 11:33 PM
  #275
aceface33
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Location: Herkimer, NY
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Posts: 8,055
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The tank rolls on...

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