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Old
03-28-2013, 01:17 PM
  #426
CarvinSigX
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I thought Sobotka forced Perron to be much more active and direct in the offensive zone. Didn't see the last game though.

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03-28-2013, 01:33 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by CarvinSigX View Post
I thought Sobotka forced Perron to be much more active and direct in the offensive zone. Didn't see the last game though.
Yes, I thought Perron was playing better offensively with Sobotka and Tarasenko. If he stays, and it is likely that he does, I hope that line can get productive, it has some potential.

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Old
03-29-2013, 09:25 PM
  #428
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Dags with 2 assists tonight for the Devils.

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03-29-2013, 11:42 PM
  #429
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Dags with 2 assists tonight for the Devils.
Good for him! Glad he's getting playing time.

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Old
03-31-2013, 03:45 PM
  #430
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Current West Standings (after CHI-DET Sunday but before other games)

1. CHI +21
2. ANA +16
3. MIN +10
4. VAN +9
5. LA +7
6. SJ +6
7. DET +4
8. STL +3
9. DAL +2
10. EDM +1
11. NSH 0, 12row
12. CBJ 0, 10row
13. PHX -1
14. CGY -3
15. COL -6

At the end of the 48-game schedule, 54 points, or +6, is the equivalent to 92 in a normal year. 92 is the league average since the lockout. What usually happens toward the end of a season is some teams on the cusp uptick their winrate. Right now, the pace to get in the playoffs is the Blues' pace, which is ~ +4.3. However, given the uptick, it's probably going to take +6 to get in, maybe even +7. Of course, it could stay pretty flat and a +4 gets in, but I'd feel safest aiming for +6 or better.

That means the Blues need to put in a +3 over their final 15 games to ensure their date with Chicago or Anaheim. Those are records of 9-6-0, 8-5-2 or 7-4-3. Or better.

If it makes anyone feel better, a team like Edmonton would have to put in a +5 with 14 games to play to get to that threshold, things like 9-4-1 or 8-3-3. Nashville and CBJ have 13 games left and need a +6. So 9-3-1 or 8-2-3 for those teams.

Dallas is really the main threat. They host the Kings tonight.


Last edited by PocketNines: 03-31-2013 at 03:51 PM.
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03-31-2013, 03:59 PM
  #431
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Honestly I would much rather finish 8th and play Chicago than finish 5th or something and play Vancouver/LA.

Couple reasons why:

1. If we upset Chicago in the first round I would be fully satisfied with this season and would not care about anything that happened in the next series, even if we got swept in round 2 (although you would think that a win over Chicago should give us tons of momentum).

2. Even if we lose, better than being the top seed that gets upset, and it would be a hell of an exciting series.

Also LOL at Kindl and Detroit today. You would think we'd be able to pass them but we'll see...

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Old
03-31-2013, 06:38 PM
  #432
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Might be a hated Red Wing but wanted to wish Mr. Hockey a happy birthday.

I would be majorly bummed from their effort today if I was a Wings fan.

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03-31-2013, 07:47 PM
  #433
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Columbus is now ahead of us in the standings. I'm officially on suicide watch.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:05 PM
  #434
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People who think Columbus is "ahead" of the Blues in the standings think a 1-2-1 record is better than a 1-0-0 record, and go on "suicide watch" because of it.

The Blues are +3, good for 8th place.

Dallas is 9th at +1 with 34GP and 15row.
Edmonton is 10th at +1 with 34GP and 12row.
Columbus is 11th at +1 with 36GP.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:08 PM
  #435
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Originally Posted by Chojin View Post
Columbus is now ahead of us in the standings. I'm officially on suicide watch.
Ok. Now I get the "other" problem with the extra OT point. CBJ only has 15 wins to the Blues 17, but the Jackets also have 7 points from OT/SO losses as opposed to the Blues 2. Thankfully, we have three games in hand.

Not happy that a team with fewer actual wins has bumped us from 8th, especially when it's Columbus.


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Old
03-31-2013, 08:22 PM
  #436
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
People who think Columbus is "ahead" of the Blues in the standings think a 1-2-1 record is better than a 1-0-0 record, and go on "suicide watch" because of it.

The Blues are +3, good for 8th place.

Dallas is 9th at +1 with 34GP and 15row.
Edmonton is 10th at +1 with 34GP and 12row.
Columbus is 11th at +1 with 36GP.
It was meant to be tongue in cheek, but ok.

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03-31-2013, 08:34 PM
  #437
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It was meant to be tongue in cheek, but ok.
Fair enough, but a lot of people I'd say a majority of Blues fans actually believe the Blues "trail" Columbus. Actually believe 1-2-1 is superior to 1-0-0. Beat writers report this. Lou Korac just announced the Blues were in "9th" and I'll wager JR says something to that effect soon. It's somewhat amazing how bad "NHL math" is.

It's for this exact reason I always list the standings in +/- of wins minus regulation losses, which is how the NHL keeps standings internally since that's how they do the waiver order.

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03-31-2013, 09:01 PM
  #438
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Seriously though, I wish our team played even 70% as hard as Columbus does. Maybe they'll get there by the end of the season.

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03-31-2013, 09:13 PM
  #439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
Fair enough, but a lot of people I'd say a majority of Blues fans actually believe the Blues "trail" Columbus. Actually believe 1-2-1 is superior to 1-0-0. Beat writers report this. Lou Korac just announced the Blues were in "9th" and I'll wager JR says something to that effect soon. It's somewhat amazing how bad "NHL math" is.

It's for this exact reason I always list the standings in +/- of wins minus regulation losses, which is how the NHL keeps standings internally since that's how they do the waiver order.
If it came down to the last game of the season, needing 2 points, and the Blues played Columbus....right now I wouldn't bet on the Blues.

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03-31-2013, 09:15 PM
  #440
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Columbus was outshot 17-1 in the third. They just have a goalie who's stealing games for them this year, which has them in 11th, and damn near 9th.

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03-31-2013, 09:16 PM
  #441
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Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor View Post
If it came down to the last game of the season, needing 2 points, and the Blues played Columbus....right now I wouldn't bet on the Blues.
Yeah but Columbus would have to first overtake the Blues in the standings and then each have one game left, which is still a very tall order for them. To make the playoffs Columbus is going to have to go something like 8-3-1 or 7-2-3 the rest of the way.

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04-01-2013, 12:06 AM
  #442
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Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
Fair enough, but a lot of people I'd say a majority of Blues fans actually believe the Blues "trail" Columbus. Actually believe 1-2-1 is superior to 1-0-0. Beat writers report this. Lou Korac just announced the Blues were in "9th" and I'll wager JR says something to that effect soon. It's somewhat amazing how bad "NHL math" is.

It's for this exact reason I always list the standings in +/- of wins minus regulation losses, which is how the NHL keeps standings internally since that's how they do the waiver order.
St. Louis still has a difficult two games ahead of them. It could very well be 1-2-1 vs 1-2-0 in a few nights. I don't believe Columbus will actually finish ahead of St. Louis but they better get their **** together very soon.

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Old
04-01-2013, 02:38 PM
  #443
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Shockingly, JR's morning skate is all about how the Blues are behind Columbus. Hell, there isn't even a minor note in there about how the Blues have three games in hand.

A reporter's job is to inform his/her readers of facts and to provide context. There is no context here. Blues are 61.5% to make playoffs and Columbus is 15.5%, because they're in 11th. JR is normally a very strong reporter but this is downright shoddy. He's not alone though.

Quote:
ST. PAUL, Minn. • The Blues woke up Monday morning no longer possessing one of the eight playoff spots in the Western Conference. FALSE

Columbus' 2-1 overtime victory over Anaheim Sunday vaulted the Blue Jackets into eighth place FALSE with 37 points, ahead of the ninth-place FALSE Blues (36).

The standings will change with the wind over the Blues' final 15 regular-season games remaining, but being pushed out of a playoff position FALSE comes at a time when the club is beginning a difficult stretch.
That's it. Zero context, no mention of games in hand. If you'd woken up from a coma and read this piece, you would believe the Blues are in an inferior playoff position to Columbus, and that is misleading and downright bad reporting.

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04-01-2013, 02:42 PM
  #444
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Makes you wonder why he's reporting it that way. Mad at how the season has been going? Wants to kick the boys into gear? Looking to rile up fans?

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Old
04-01-2013, 02:49 PM
  #445
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To be honest, it's hard to come up with a different hook every day. It's an eye-opening lede (eye-opening for not being true!) and something different. Reporters get lazy sometimes too.

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04-01-2013, 02:51 PM
  #446
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The information is not wrong, just rather incomplete and certainly lacks context. Technically, the Jackets have more points than the Blues do, and are therefore "ahead" of them in the standings. Although just about every other method of ranking(Point% ,+/- etc) would have the Blues ahead of Columbus. Games in hand don't mean anything until you win some of them.

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04-01-2013, 03:13 PM
  #447
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Baseball, football and basketball all correctly rank teams by percentage because that's the way to handle games in hand. The NHL does this neanderthal math thing, and reporters dutifully follow suit.

The point of listing standings is so that fans can look at the list and see how teams fare relative to each other. But if you look at the NHL standings right now you'd think Columbus is in a healthier, better position than the Blues in the standings. That's the conclusion to which the NHL's presentation of its standings will lead its fans. And yet when it comes to anything official like waiver wire order, they use the same percentage rankings as do the other sports. Their standings are deliberately confusing and there's no push from writers to make any changes since it gives them exciting yellow copy.

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04-01-2013, 03:17 PM
  #448
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I mean let's be honest about JR. Sure, he does a decent enough job but he doesn't really dig deep and think critically about the team or the league. Read his chats. There's no question most of us in here know 50x more about the state of the game, prospects, etc than he does. Any good reporter that is really embedded with his/her team like Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch (he explained the uphill battle facing the Jackets based on ROW and games in hand on twitter the other day) or Mike Russo would mention the obvious math at play here.

Also, read their blogs if you want an example of guys who do an amazing job covering their respective teams. These guys crank out in-depth reporting all the time on their blogs. JR didn't even have one blog entry centered around the Blues' pursuit of DeKeyser and quotes from MacInnins and the key players. Fans just like to pump JR's tires cause everyone hates Strickland which is fair I guess.

Anyway, that's my Hooligan rant of the day...

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Old
04-01-2013, 03:37 PM
  #449
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PocketNines View Post
Baseball, football and basketball all correctly rank teams by percentage because that's the way to handle games in hand. The NHL does this neanderthal math thing, and reporters dutifully follow suit.

The point of listing standings is so that fans can look at the list and see how teams fare relative to each other. But if you look at the NHL standings right now you'd think Columbus is in a healthier, better position than the Blues in the standings. That's the conclusion to which the NHL's presentation of its standings will lead its fans. And yet when it comes to anything official like waiver wire order, they use the same percentage rankings as do the other sports. Their standings are deliberately confusing and there's no push from writers to make any changes since it gives them exciting yellow copy.
I agree the NHL's standings lack clarity, but I don't think it's something to lambaste JR about. As you mentioned, he's definitely not the only reporter using the point standings to determine ranking. His information is technically correct; the Jackets are ahead of the Blues in terms of points earned. If both teams lose every game for the rest of the season, the Jackets would be ahead of the Blues. That's what I meant by games in hand mean nothing unless they become wins.

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04-01-2013, 04:22 PM
  #450
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Originally Posted by MattyMo35 View Post
I agree the NHL's standings lack clarity, but I don't think it's something to lambaste JR about. As you mentioned, he's definitely not the only reporter using the point standings to determine ranking. His information is technically correct; the Jackets are ahead of the Blues in terms of points earned. If both teams lose every game for the rest of the season, the Jackets would be ahead of the Blues. That's what I meant by games in hand mean nothing unless they become wins.
It's utterly nonsensical to assume the Blues get 0 points out of 6 until that actually happens. If the Blues even got 1 point out of 6 they'd be ahead of Columbus with tiebreakers.

Technically, 1-2-1 is a "better" record than 1-0-0 by this logic. There is nothing incorrect about listing teams accounting for games in hand, as this is unbiased, neutral, affects all teams equally, and has already been determined the fair way to determine waiver priority. The NHL considers Columbus behind the Blues in the real standings since they'd get first crack at a waiver pickup.

It always seems super weird to punish a team for getting 0 points in games they haven't played yet. The average expectation in a game is 1.1 points, which is also the Blues' average this season. Priced into that average is all their stretches of terrible play and losing and tough opponents. Even with all that, it's still an expectaion of 1.1 points per game played. The only technically correct way to note Columbus has amassed more raw points is to say "Columbus has barely more raw points than the Blues despite getting three extra opportunities to gain those points."

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