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2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:15 PM
  #1
Mayor Bee
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2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

Welcome, one and all, to the 5th Edition of the, uh, semi-official....almost perfect magic number thread!

(Updated through end of regular season)

EASTERN CONFERENCE
MAGIC NUMBER
Pittsburgh - clinched playoff spot; clinched Atlantic Division; clinched Eastern Conference
Montreal - clinched playoff spot; clinched Northeast Division
Washington - clinched playoff spot; clinched Southeast Division; clinched #3 seed in Eastern Conference
Boston - clinched playoff spot; clinched top-4 seed
Toronto - clinched playoff spot
Ottawa - clinched playoff spot
NY Rangers - clinched playoff spot
NY Islanders- clinched playoff spot

ELIMINATION NUMBER
Florida - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Tampa Bay - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Carolina - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Philadelphia - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Buffalo - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
New Jersey - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Winnipeg - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race

WESTERN CONFERENCE
MAGIC NUMBER
Chicago - clinched playoff spot; clinched Central Division; clinched Western Conference; clinched President's Trophy
Anaheim - clinched playoff spot; clinched Pacific Division; clinched #2 seed in Western Conference
Vancouver - clinched playoff spot; clinched Northwest Division; clinched #3 seed in Western Conference
St. Louis - clinched playoff spot
Los Angeles - clinched playoff spot
San Jose - clinched playoff spot
Detroit - clinched playoff spot
Minnesota - clinched playoff spot

ELIMINATION NUMBER
Colorado - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Nashville - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Calgary - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Edmonton - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Phoenix - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Dallas - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race
Columbus - eliminated from playoff race; eliminated from division race

Draft positions (pending lottery)
#1 - Florida
#2 - Colorado
#3 - Tampa Bay
#4 - Nashville
#5 - Carolina
#6 - Calgary
#7 - Edmonton
#8 - Buffalo
#9 - New Jersey
#10 - Dallas
#11 - Philadelphia
#12 - Phoenix
#13 - Winnipeg
#14 - Columbus
(pending playoffs) - Cup winner will pick 30th, runner-up 29th, conference finalists will be 27th and 28th
#15 - NY Islanders
#16 - Minnesota
#17 - Ottawa
#18 - Detroit
#19 - NY Rangers
#20 - Toronto
#21 - San Jose
#22 - Los Angeles
#23 - St. Louis
#24 - Boston
#25 - Washington
#26 - Vancouver
#27 - Montreal
#28 - Anaheim
#29 - Pittsburgh
#30 - Chicago


Playoff seedings:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 - Pittsburgh
#2 - Montreal
#3 - Washington
#4 - Boston
#5 - Toronto
#6 - NY Rangers
#7 - Ottawa
#8 - NY Islanders

First Round
1 v 8 Pittsburgh vs NY Islanders
2 v 7 Montreal vs Ottawa
3 v 6 Washington vs NY Rangers
4 v 5 Boston vs Toronto

WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 - Chicago
#2 - Anaheim
#3 - Vancouver
#4 - St. Louis
#5 - Los Angeles
#6 - San Jose
#7 - Detroit
#8 - Minnesota

First Round
1 v 8 Chicago vs Minnesota
2 v 7 Anaheim vs Detroit
3 v 6 Vancouver vs San Jose
4 v 5 St. Louis vs Los Angeles


Last edited by Mayor Bee: 04-28-2013 at 08:52 PM.
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Old
03-31-2013, 08:23 PM
  #2
Holden Caulfield
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Sweet, thanks. Watch this thread real close every year!

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:26 PM
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Thank you!!!

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:33 PM
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Good stuff. Always love when this thread pops up cause i know playoffs are right around the corner.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:39 PM
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I always look forward to this thread. Thank you.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:40 PM
  #6
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I nominate this thread for sticky.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:41 PM
  #7
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Never followed this thread in previous years, but then I am a Leafs fan. Will be following it closely.

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03-31-2013, 08:44 PM
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tsanuri
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I'm thinking the number for Vancouver to get a top 4 spot is off.
I might be wrong but it doesn't seem right with them only 1 point in front of LA with the same number of games left and 26 possible points in play.

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03-31-2013, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsanuri View Post
I'm thinking the number for Vancouver to get a top 4 spot is off.
I might be wrong but it doesn't seem right with them only 1 point in front of LA with the same number of games left and 26 possible points in play.
Good eye; the number should be 26 rather than 20.

Hopefully this is the only error I make.

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03-31-2013, 08:49 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Good eye; the number should be 26 rather than 20.

Hopefully this is the only error I make.
Thanks for all the work.

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Old
03-31-2013, 08:54 PM
  #11
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Great job as always.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SillyRabbit View Post
I nominate this thread for sticky.
As usual.

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03-31-2013, 08:56 PM
  #12
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Great stuff as always, Mayor!

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03-31-2013, 09:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Good eye; the number should be 26 rather than 20.

Hopefully this is the only error I make.
I would hope so, I probably wouldn't make one error if I made this thread.

Always love when its this time of the year... Will check back constantly.

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03-31-2013, 09:14 PM
  #14
Mayor Bee
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Fully updated through games of 3/31/2013.

No clinching or eliminating scenarios exist for tomorrow. It appears that the soonest one will be on Tuesday, but would require a lot to happen then. (It would be Pittsburgh winning on Tuesday in R/OT, as well as both Carolina and Winnipeg losing games the next two days in regulation.)

Side note
I've tinkered with the spreadsheet this year enough that the following standings formats are tracked:
- Current NHL (2 points for win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- 3-2-1-0 (3 points for regulation win, 2 points for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- Straight W/L (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss)
- No shootout (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss, 1 point for ties [which is simply SO wins + SO losses])

Would there be any interest in these being posted on a daily basis, or at least a weekly basis?

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:19 PM
  #15
beauchamp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Fully updated through games of 3/31/2013.

No clinching or eliminating scenarios exist for tomorrow. It appears that the soonest one will be on Tuesday, but would require a lot to happen then. (It would be Pittsburgh winning on Tuesday in R/OT, as well as both Carolina and Winnipeg losing games the next two days in regulation.)

Side note
I've tinkered with the spreadsheet this year enough that the following standings formats are tracked:
- Current NHL (2 points for win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- 3-2-1-0 (3 points for regulation win, 2 points for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- Straight W/L (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss)
- No shootout (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss, 1 point for ties [which is simply SO wins + SO losses])

Would there be any interest in these being posted on a daily basis, or at least a weekly basis?
At least twice a week until the last two weeks, and then daily.

Thanks.

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:24 PM
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Thank you very much for this. I am sure everyone really appreciates all the work you are putting in.

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:25 PM
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Awesome. I always came to this thread as a lurker, now i'll thank you since I'm a member this time, so thanks

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:54 PM
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jasonleaffan
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Based on odds after 1000 sims i like this site

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

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03-31-2013, 09:57 PM
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beauchamp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonleaffan View Post
Based on odds after 1000 sims i like this site better

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
This is a case of false twins.

They look to be on the same matter, but they are not.

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03-31-2013, 09:57 PM
  #20
Pyromaniac3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Fully updated through games of 3/31/2013.

No clinching or eliminating scenarios exist for tomorrow. It appears that the soonest one will be on Tuesday, but would require a lot to happen then. (It would be Pittsburgh winning on Tuesday in R/OT, as well as both Carolina and Winnipeg losing games the next two days in regulation.)

Side note
I've tinkered with the spreadsheet this year enough that the following standings formats are tracked:
- Current NHL (2 points for win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- 3-2-1-0 (3 points for regulation win, 2 points for OT/SO win, 1 point for OT/SO loss, 0 points for regulation loss)
- Straight W/L (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss)
- No shootout (2 points for any win, 0 points for any loss, 1 point for ties [which is simply SO wins + SO losses])

Would there be any interest in these being posted on a daily basis, or at least a weekly basis?
Thanks for doing this. Would definitely be interested in those formats. Weekly until the second last week and then daily after would be my preferred method.

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Old
03-31-2013, 09:59 PM
  #21
jasonleaffan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beauchamp View Post
This is a case of false twins.

They look to be on the same matter, but they are not.
I know that is why i removed better in my post. But also where else would i post that little tidbit of info?

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Old
03-31-2013, 10:01 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by SillyRabbit View Post
I nominate this thread for sticky.
In addition, I nominate Mayor Bee for Mod as well.

Excellent work again Mayor Bee.

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Old
03-31-2013, 10:36 PM
  #23
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Thanks for the work as usual.


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Old
04-01-2013, 02:15 AM
  #24
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Thank you for all the work, MB. In terms of how often... really, it's when you have the time and motivation to do so. I personally think it's just cool you keep a board full of internet strangers up to date on how close the race is.

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Old
04-01-2013, 02:49 AM
  #25
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I don't think I understand these numbers. Is it the number of points they need to earn to clinch?

Also why is Winnipeg below Carolina when they're sitting in the division lead.

Maybe I'm just tired.

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