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Brendan Smith; what do we have in him?

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Old
03-31-2013, 11:02 AM
  #1
InjuredChoker
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Brendan Smith; what do we have in him?

As many expected, Smith has struggled this year. Esp. on scoreboard, 23 games and 3 points. No goals. He hasn't been brutal imo but there's still lots of work to do for him.

Some adv. stats, only counting Dmen.

He's facing 3rd toughest opponents on the team, Kronner and E ahead of him. So clearly Babs has trust in him (Kindl gets the easiest minutes).

His GF and GA/60 are both at 1.35 Wings have 2.15 GF/60, 1.90 GA/60 when Smith is off the ice. He doesn't score much but neither does opponent when he's on ice. This is surprisingly low figures on GA, cut the rookie mistakes and turnovers and he'd have been barely scored on this year. Only when Lashoff is on ice do the Wings score less and only when Kindl is on ice do the Wings get scored on less.

This hasn't been much about luck as Smith's PDO is 996. Sh% is 4.68% when Smith is on ice (lowest on D) and sv% is 94.9% (2nd highest). Only Kindl has higher on ice sv%, in 96.0%. Though eye test tells Kindl has improved, his PDO is 1075. High sv% and very high sh% when he is on ice, 11.48%.

Last year Smith got much more sheltered minutes on his short stint, inc higher off. zone starts (61.3 vs. 53.8).

Though the sample size is small he had 9.09 sh% when on ice and 91.5 sv% for PDO of 1006, indicating he wasn't exceptionally lucky. GF and GA on/60 were 2.84 and 1.58 respectively. When Smith was on ice, Detroit just managed to out shoot opponents by wide margin. His rel. Corsi was 9.1, the highest of all D (Lids had 8.9).

This year Smith is again out shooting opponents when he's on the ice and his rel. Corsi is 4th best on Wings D with 1.8, behind Kindl, Quincey and White (Lashoff is -18.7 lol, kind of accomplishment as only Ericsson is the other - at 0.3 of all D that have played at least 20 games.

As a summary, Smith is doing ok based on these stats. He's not getting soft minutes, he is out shooting opponent and not getting scored on much. Now he just needs to bump his own numbers. While maintaining the other end. Just that.


Smith has played mostly with Quincey (196 mins) and Lashoff (77 mins) this year as his D partners.

Quote:
GF20 GA20 GF% CF20 CA20 CF%
0.408 0.510 44.4 19.19 16.03 54.5
0.386 0.386 50.0 15.18 15.82 49.0
The above numbers are when Smith is with KFQ, the below numbers when Smith is with someone else.

So Smith is little under even in Corsi when he's with out Q but is out shooting the opponents when he is with Q. And to be fair for Q, he's played better without Smith. But imo that's mostly bc then he's been mainly with Kindl getting soft mins.

Here are the numbers with Lashoff.

Quote:
GF20 GA20 GF% CF20 CA20 CF%
0.258 0.773 25.0 13.92 18.05 43.5
They are getting outshot and outscored. And they are out there again tonight.

Looking at Lashoff's stats, he gets outshot no matter who he plays with. And his partners do better when they are without Lashoff.

KFQ isn't obviously the best possible partner for Smith but he sure is better than Lashoff.


Anyway, Smith has played ok. Not great, not bad. He's had some good games and some bad games. He played in AHL before the season started so obv. isn't as fresh as some guys. His skating isn't 100%, even Pierre McQuire mentioned about it.

But to me these stats look surprisingly good. He's not getting killed there. Just get him reliable partner and he should be fine. Next year he should be better.

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03-31-2013, 11:11 AM
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cjm502
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I think Smith is trying to do too much, which is partially because of the guys hes paired up with. If DD really does end up being a better version of Lashoff, I think Smith would be better off with him or E.

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03-31-2013, 11:35 AM
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He's a rookie. Patience!

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03-31-2013, 11:39 AM
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Nice work hunting down the stats, mate. Smith will be realgud, hopefully sooner than later.

Look how long it took for E and Kindl to play up to their expectations.

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03-31-2013, 11:40 AM
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IMO This year is a wash for him, I'm waiting until next season before I start judging what we have in him.

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03-31-2013, 11:42 AM
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I think those are very good stats for a rookie, especially given how badly the team has done, mainly due to injuries all up and down the roster.

Kid has every tool he needs to be a fantastic top pairing defenseman. I haven't seen anything yet that isn't correctable or teachable by coaching and mentoring. His skating alone will make up for a lot of flubs otherwise, he can drive the offense with his passing, he can skate with the puck, great vision. He's been very gun shy, almost makes me think he's scared to shoot. Gets caught pinching or overcommitting, but that too is fixable. Still very excited about his potential.

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03-31-2013, 01:20 PM
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I think he's come into his own recently, past 7-8 games, he's skating the puck well, showing some of his offensive creativity, throwing his weight around and he's playing better defensively then I thought he would be.

What hurt him was that as the beginning of the year he was playing with offensive Quincey, once Quincey became simple Q and the pairing was reunited they had some strong games together. Quincey gets hurt and now he's playing with Lashoff. Lashoff has shown that he isn't really ready to cover for an offensive dmen/skating dman like Smith and this means that Smith can't really play his game.

The other thing here is that if Smith can figure out what to do defensively the offense will follow. It may not be this year but next year I have no doubt that he will put up points.

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03-31-2013, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think those are very good stats for a rookie, especially given how badly the team has done, mainly due to injuries all up and down the roster.

Kid has every tool he needs to be a fantastic top pairing defenseman. I haven't seen anything yet that isn't correctable or teachable by coaching and mentoring. His skating alone will make up for a lot of flubs otherwise, he can drive the offense with his passing, he can skate with the puck, great vision. He's been very gun shy, almost makes me think he's scared to shoot. Gets caught pinching or overcommitting, but that too is fixable. Still very excited about his potential.
Agreed.

And he's on a fairly young defensive corps, where the most experienced guys in White and Kronwall haven't exactly been great role models.

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03-31-2013, 01:28 PM
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He's played 37 NHL games in his life. Statistics are ******** at this point.

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03-31-2013, 01:49 PM
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Lots of tools, shows flashes, needs some time. This season is too short to work yourself into it, but it's gonna be a valuable one for him.

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03-31-2013, 01:55 PM
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The Zetterberg Era
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Smith will be fine, does need to find his stride back as he has lost a step and I really cannot explain what happened there.

I still think he is going to be very good and I hope they get him away from Lashoff immediately. Curious to see him and DeKeyser together, if we are going to play a rookie pair that should be it.

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03-31-2013, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
Smith will be fine, does need to find his stride back as he has lost a step and I really cannot explain what happened there.

I still think he is going to be very good and I hope they get him away from Lashoff immediately. Curious to see him and DeKeyser together, if we are going to play a rookie pair that should be it.
Icant help but wonder if he bulked up 10-15lbs in the offseason and lost a bit of speed in the process. Last year when he was called up and he decided to join the rush he had another gear or two that we havent seen at all this year.

Of course. ... he was the rookie call up, playing on a teamthat had basically clinched a playoff spot with 2 months left in the season, and Lids/Stuart were here so the pressure was off. Still - I want to see him get his feet going again.

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03-31-2013, 02:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Zetterberg Era View Post
Smith will be fine, does need to find his stride back as he has lost a step and I really cannot explain what happened there.
Curious about this as well, he has definitely lost a step. Getting it back would certainly help to boost his abilities on offense and defense...Haven't heard anything about him being injured, it's strange.

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03-31-2013, 02:15 PM
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He needs to stop playing in the AHL first and foremost.

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03-31-2013, 02:16 PM
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He needs to stop playing in the AHL first and foremost.
???????????????????????????????????????????

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03-31-2013, 02:23 PM
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???????????????????????????????????????????
I don't know maybe this is a shot at his d-partner lately who should be a career AHL d-man type.

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04-01-2013, 10:31 AM
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It is notoriously difficult to quantify the overall impact that a defensemen has on a game. Many of their most meaningful contributions to a particular series of plays: a strong outlet pass, sound positional play that leads to trap along the boards and turnover, systematic coverage of a passing lane, dogged puck pursuit; cannot be accurately surfaced in any advanced measurement. Introduce some situational context and it becomes all but moot. Statistics can and are very misleading. There have been extraordinary defensemen who have not translated well to a box score or any Sabre-like metrics. Inevitably, evaluation of a defenseman distills down to some heuristic model or a professional assessment.

The case of Smith is further complicated by his small sample size, inconsistent playtime due to injuries, youth, expected scope of his role in both the offense and defense, and the truncated season. I think that all that can be concluded by what little weve seen of Smith is that he possesses all the physical gifts of an elite defenseman. He seems to have a smooth and powerful skating stride that allows him to keep or exceed the pace of play. He has a strong and physically mature frame that allows him to compete with the body. He makes decisive and quick passes and has plenty of velocity on his shot. Smith still makes suspect decisions often playing the body and sacrificing position or vice versus. He seems impatient at times and tries to force a play instead of letting the play naturally flow to him. And his play is wildly inconsistent. All of these behaviors are characteristic of a young, inexperienced defenseman.

All of this is nothing new. He remains quite simply a young defenseman that possess a rare blend of elite gifts that could result in an elite defenseman if and when his mental development lends itself to a more mature game.

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04-01-2013, 11:38 AM
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A couple of games back, he was the only DMan making stretch passes that actually reached their target. Also the best Dman yesterday in that unmitigated disaster.

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04-01-2013, 11:47 AM
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To the guys talking about his skating upthread, he was injured and out for a 3 weeks? I think that's a factor.


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A couple of games back, he was the only DMan making stretch passes that actually reached their target. Also the best Dman yesterday in that unmitigated disaster.
Agreed. He drives the offense-- looks forward, anticipates where the play can go, just like a QB looking downfield to see where his receivers are going, and then finding them. As for yesterday, yes, he definitely looked like the best defenseman on the ice for the Wings. Not that they made that hard for them, but it's interesting to note when it's your rookies looking solid.

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04-01-2013, 11:50 AM
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InjuredChoker
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Quote:
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To the guys talking about his skating upthread, he was injured and out for a 3 weeks? I think that's a factor.
It was shoulder.

But imo he didn't look much better before that if at all. Was sharper last season.

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04-01-2013, 12:16 PM
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It was shoulder.

But imo he didn't look much better before that if at all. Was sharper last season.

Ah, okay, thanks. I think he looked like he was coming into form the last 2-3 games as far as his skating. The only other thing I don't see him doing well, or as well as last year, is the slap shot. He looks like he's half-cocking it. Not following through all the way, the wind up isn't 100% either.

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04-01-2013, 12:30 PM
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I recall people trashing Kindl for being really bad when in reality they confused being bad for being inexperienced. Defensemen take time to develop. This is undoubtedly true of Smith as well. Keep playing him, keep giving him time to develop, and he'll be a great defenseman soon enough.

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04-01-2013, 01:15 PM
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I recall people trashing Kindl for being really bad when in reality they confused being bad for being inexperienced. Defensemen take time to develop. This is undoubtedly true of Smith as well. Keep playing him, keep giving him time to develop, and he'll be a great defenseman soon enough.

I disagree. Kindl was a higher pick than Smith, yet he and Ericsson took longer to develop. In other words, in terms of skill and positioning even, Smith was pushing both of them a couple years ago. He should have been on the team last year, were it not for a lack of roster space and cap/asset management issues per Holland, he could have been on the team all of last year. It's the Wings that have been holding him back, not Smitty holding himself back.

As the start of this season, Kindl still had to fight for a roster spot while Smith pretty much made the team and had his spot solidified at the beginning of this season. Even to say they are even right now favors Smith's ceiling potential. (Or picking one guy doesn't mean that the other has no value, just to get that out there.)

Kindl has taken the longer road.

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04-01-2013, 01:51 PM
  #24
kuick
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Kindl has taken the longer road.
Agreed, but I think the point he was going for is that no matter how long Smith has been seasoning in the AHL, a seamless transition to the NHL game for a defenseman is rare.

It's not worth getting worried about Smith for not lighting it up in his first 30 games as an NHLer. It's more about game experience, which is why Smith should have been with the team for the entire last season.

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04-01-2013, 02:59 PM
  #25
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I still think he will surprise a lot of people in the next 2 years. I think it's a difficult learning curve from AHL to NHL for defenseman. I think he is going to be fine

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