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Caps sign, recall D Steven Oleksy

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Old
04-01-2013, 12:30 PM
  #251
RandyHolt
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Who doesn't like a clean hard hitting D. Sure he needs to have his minutes managed as he learns the speed players; he is a total noob. But he is giving his all, and I always cut guys that try some slack. That is always one of my complaints about the others. His game is a lot like Erskine, only more mobile, and more offensive awareness.

I wonder if GM's are inquiring about him as we close in on the deadline.

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04-01-2013, 12:37 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Who doesn't like a clean hard hitting D. Sure he needs to have his minutes managed as he learns the speed players; he is a total noob. But he is giving his all, and I always cut guys that try some slack. That is always one of my complaints about the others. His game is a lot like Erskine, only more mobile, and more offensive awareness.

I wonder if GM's are inquiring about him as we close in on the deadline.
It wouldn't shock me, but if I'm GMGM, I'm not taking calls on the guy unless they want him as a piece in a big trade. I'm much more interested to see just how deep the rabbit hole goes with him. He has had a huge breakout at age 27.

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04-01-2013, 12:40 PM
  #253
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I'm surprised by his offensive upside. Some of our other D look like they are afraid of shooting the puck.

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04-01-2013, 12:55 PM
  #254
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I wonder what he would fetch in a deadline trade. It sure seems like teams load up on depth and toughness and he fits the annual demand. Sure he has that albatross contract but still.

What would you give up as keyboard GM. I have no idea about values but will start the bidding. A late 2nd? Late 1st? A similar D prospect?

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04-01-2013, 01:01 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
I wonder what he would fetch in a deadline trade. It sure seems like teams load up on depth and toughness and he fits the annual demand. Sure he has that albatross contract but still.

What would you give up as keyboard GM. I have no idea about values but will start the bidding. A late 2nd? Late 1st? A similar D prospect?
I'd start at late 3rd/early 4th. 3rd pair guy.

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04-01-2013, 01:34 PM
  #256
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Thanks for the feedback. I don't doubt the value being probably close or dead on, but there is no way I would move him for a 3rd or 4th right now. I know we value our prospects more than others, but its life on HF.

But Green is as gimpy as ever. Carlson probably still has more turnovers than his peers, if not leading the league (i don't want to even look). Orlov is coming back from a concussion. Kundratek was recently injured himself. Other emergency RD candidates Poti is injured, Hillen is... Hillen, Sarge Sarge.

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04-01-2013, 01:38 PM
  #257
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Absolutely. I wouldn't sell him for that, but it'd be my buying price.

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04-01-2013, 02:56 PM
  #258
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no way they trade a guy that shows this much "random potential", when things like mid-draft picks are usually just AHL scrubs anyway

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04-01-2013, 03:08 PM
  #259
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rather keep him and develop him into the next Seidenberg.

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12-01-2013, 08:42 AM
  #260
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Can someone explain to me why Oleksy keeps getting scratched when he's been one of the better defensemen on the ice night after night?

20 games played and he's 4th in blocked shots with Carlson, Alzner and Green ahead of him and 4 to 7 more games.

8th on the team in hits with only Volpatti logging more hits per game.

Plus 2, 6 assists, and very good at making outlet passes, keeping the puck in, and finding the open man in the neutral zone.


If the answer is just "Oates' handedness system" then color me outraged.

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12-01-2013, 09:40 AM
  #261
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Using "hits" and "blocked shots" as a measure of defense.

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12-01-2013, 09:51 AM
  #262
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Oleksy didn't work well with Orlov in limited action last year and I doubt he'd fit all that well with Schmidt either. Strachan is limited also but he's the better fit for those two.

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12-01-2013, 11:26 AM
  #263
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the caps need to pair any of Oleksy, Orlov, Urbom or Schmidt with a veteran defenseman.
preferably a veteran defenseman who being aggressive offensively or physically is not part of his game. Putting Green or Carlson with a rookie only ******* their ability to play their game. Alzner plays the stay at home and his partner can be confident that if they hang Alzner out, he will make the right decisions.

That is certainly not the case when the partner is either limited like Erskine or inexperienced like the rest of the options.

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12-01-2013, 11:58 AM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd View Post
the caps need to pair any of Oleksy, Orlov, Urbom or Schmidt with a veteran defenseman.
preferably a veteran defenseman who being aggressive offensively or physically is not part of his game. Putting Green or Carlson with a rookie only ******* their ability to play their game. Alzner plays the stay at home and his partner can be confident that if they hang Alzner out, he will make the right decisions.

That is certainly not the case when the partner is either limited like Erskine or inexperienced like the rest of the options.
Sure would be nice if the organization committed to competing instead of leaning on rookies and journeymen on d.

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12-01-2013, 12:28 PM
  #265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Using "hits" and "blocked shots" as a measure of defense.
So why are those stats even kept, genius? Clearly not the only measures, and not the only things I even mentioned, but they count.

What's your explanation for all of this?

True or false: Oleksy has been doing as well or better compared to the other d-men out there now.


edit: Oh wait, you're the guy who crapped all over this signing before he even set foot on the ice. Nevermind.


Last edited by g00n: 12-01-2013 at 12:37 PM.
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12-01-2013, 12:50 PM
  #266
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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
So why are those stats even kept, genius? Clearly not the only measures, and not the only things I even mentioned, but they count.

What's your explanation for all of this?
Those "stats" are notoriously unreliable and have between zero and negative correlation with actually winning a game. Or have you just ignored the countless posts that have been on this board about these topics over the past couple seasons.

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True or false: Oleksy has been doing as well or better compared to the other d-men out there now.
Than the other RHD? Well, I'd put him in over Strachan, but the difference isn't huge. At the beginning of the season Oleksy was playing quite well, but he had a rough stretch before the Strachan recall and I don't really blame Oates for putting him on the bench. When he keeps his game limited in the defensive zone he's good, but he often ends up trying to do too much and getting burned or putting his partner in a bad position because of it.

Additionally, there's the chemistry issues Langway has raised.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g00n View Post
edit: Oh wait, you're the guy who crapped all over this signing before he even set foot on the ice. Nevermind.
Because these forums always wait for a player to put on a Capitals uniform before judging a signing or a trade. Or are all the people who crapped on the Erat trade also rooting for him to fail? And giving three years to a journeyman minor leaguer with no NHL experience is still a tough sell.

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12-01-2013, 01:46 PM
  #267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Those "stats" are notoriously unreliable and have between zero and negative correlation with actually winning a game. Or have you just ignored the countless posts that have been on this board about these topics over the past couple seasons.


Than the other RHD? Well, I'd put him in over Strachan, but the difference isn't huge. At the beginning of the season Oleksy was playing quite well, but he had a rough stretch before the Strachan recall and I don't really blame Oates for putting him on the bench. When he keeps his game limited in the defensive zone he's good, but he often ends up trying to do too much and getting burned or putting his partner in a bad position because of it.

Additionally, there's the chemistry issues Langway has raised.


Because these forums always wait for a player to put on a Capitals uniform before judging a signing or a trade. Or are all the people who crapped on the Erat trade also rooting for him to fail? And giving three years to a journeyman minor leaguer with no NHL experience is still a tough sell.

I'm not familiar with the threads you're referencing regarding hits and blocked shots but having participated in such discussions more than enough in other forums I'm pretty sure how it went.

The point is not whether or not there's some kind of scientific, objective link between blocked shots, hits, and winning (am I right in that that's how the thread progressed?) The point is this is a Caps team that has issues with giving up too many shots as it is, as well as issues with finding physical defensemen who can stabilize the lineup.

Oleksy had been filling that role, and I disagree with your overall assessment of his play (which even you noted in the past was pretty good) as being a liability to his partner, or that he's only marginally better than Strachan (imo, from what I've seen). He's shown some great decision making and made some key plays with the puck that led to offensive chances, too. Again, he seems particularly good at holding the blueline and moving the puck up the ice quickly with a decisive pass to the most logical option.

His last game was the 4-0 loss to Pittsburgh in which the entire team stunk horribly. Prior to that they'd won 7 out of 9 with him in the lineup, and he played pretty well (his +/- was even in that stretch and never more than +/- 1 in any game). After he was scratched they lost 3 in a row. Not saying there's direct causation, or that +/- is everything, but how has the defense looked recently?

You can rationalize the stats any way you want, but personally I think the benching has more to do with a need to see what they had in Strachan. I think GMGM is trying to figure out what pieces he needs to keep and what he can move in order to fit Oates' OCD handedness scheme.

Because from what I've seen this is a better team with 61 in the lineup.

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12-01-2013, 02:21 PM
  #268
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You have to give up a shot to block it, basically. The way to lower shots-against numbers is not to let the other team have the puck/take shot (attempts) in the first place, rather than to let them and then just try to get in the way. Defense is preventing yourself from even needing to block shots.

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12-01-2013, 03:29 PM
  #269
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You have to give up a shot to block it, basically. The way to lower shots-against numbers is not to let the other team have the puck/take shot (attempts) in the first place, rather than to let them and then just try to get in the way. Defense is preventing yourself from even needing to block shots.
Not directed at you personally, but is this really the argument against the significance of blocked shots?? That's overthinking it in order to come to the conclusion that the stat/ability is overrated, probably as a reaction to the DH coaching style vs puck possession THEORIES.

Here are the facts: Shots are going to happen. Some guys will block them, some won't. Shots that get blocked by definition don't go in the net. That's good.

Absent any data we can only guess at the percentage of shots that would not have been taken if some vague concept of defense was being respected instead. We also don't know how many players are intentionally putting themselves in the way of shots and how many are scrambling to get back into THEIR position (as opposed to sliding to cover for other players). For all of that we must use our EYES and COMMON SENSE. And for me those things say you can have players who are good at both puck possession AND blocking shots when needed, especially when they're defensemen who are expected to do as much.

Anyway, this is a threadjack. Oleksy's blocked shot stat is only there for comparison to his teammates, not as an objective measure of worth in a vacuum. If the argument against blocked shots is true then he's better than Carlson, Alzner and Green. Is that the case?

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12-01-2013, 04:00 PM
  #270
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Number of blocked shots is a strong predictor of SH TOI and not much else.

I think whether defensemen are playing, in the pressbox, or yoyo-ing between DC and Hershey is primarily about their waiver and contract status rather than their play. A propos of that, maybe Schmidt should spend a dozen games in Hershey getting some serious special teams time for his development to clear out the logjam of D in the pressbox.

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12-01-2013, 04:08 PM
  #271
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Not directed at you personally, but is this really the argument against the significance of blocked shots?? That's overthinking it in order to come to the conclusion that the stat/ability is overrated, probably as a reaction to the DH coaching style vs puck possession THEORIES.

Here are the facts: Shots are going to happen. Some guys will block them, some won't. Shots that get blocked by definition don't go in the net. That's good.

Absent any data we can only guess at the percentage of shots that would not have been taken if some vague concept of defense was being respected instead. We also don't know how many players are intentionally putting themselves in the way of shots and how many are scrambling to get back into THEIR position (as opposed to sliding to cover for other players). For all of that we must use our EYES and COMMON SENSE. And for me those things say you can have players who are good at both puck possession AND blocking shots when needed, especially when they're defensemen who are expected to do as much.

Anyway, this is a threadjack. Oleksy's blocked shot stat is only there for comparison to his teammates, not as an objective measure of worth in a vacuum. If the argument against blocked shots is true then he's better than Carlson, Alzner and Green. Is that the case?
I don't know if it's the argument. It's my view of it. Percentage of shot attempts blocked would be a useful stat I guess.

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12-01-2013, 05:04 PM
  #272
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Sure would be nice if the organization committed to competing instead of leaning on rookies and journeymen on d.
I wont argue that. which are the journeymen though? Erskine? really the problem is not the quality of any of Schmidt, Urbom, Orlov or Oleksly. one or two of them at a time would be fine.

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12-02-2013, 08:06 PM
  #273
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Not directed at you personally, but is this really the argument against the significance of blocked shots?? That's overthinking it in order to come to the conclusion that the stat/ability is overrated, probably as a reaction to the DH coaching style vs puck possession THEORIES.
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/0...-told-the-cbc/
The only stat that correlated more strongly with losing a game than blocked shots was goals against, and the difference between the two was rather minute. Blocking a lot of shots means the other team has the puck on their stick. You want to be forcing the other team to block shots, not blocking them yourselves.

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Originally Posted by g00n View Post
Anyway, this is a threadjack. Oleksy's blocked shot stat is only there for comparison to his teammates, not as an objective measure of worth in a vacuum. If the argument against blocked shots is true then he's better than Carlson, Alzner and Green. Is that the case?
He saw significantly less ice time than Carlson, Alzner, and Green. Blocked shots alone are not an indicator of much of anything, anyway. You have to provide more context (ice time, deployment, possession stats, etc.).

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12-02-2013, 08:25 PM
  #274
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Sarge blocked 10 shots in one period, his best playoff game ever.

Yeah blocked shots can happen by accident or when players are trying for screens. Its about time to bump the Sarge thread and check in on him... + zero.

Oleksy blocked a shot off his face in the playoffs and it barely fazed him. Give me the one over the 10 any day.

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12-02-2013, 09:39 PM
  #275
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Keep cherrypicking the term "blocked shot" out of the entire context of the discussion. It really forwards the conversation.

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