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The All-Purpose Goaltending Thread #9

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Old
04-01-2013, 11:25 AM
  #726
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Originally Posted by Bleed orange View Post
I agree that Bryz has not played we'll at all, but these stats don't tell the story. The flyers defense, an forwards for that matter, give up WAYYY too many prime scoring chances, odd man rushes, breakaways. Way to many blown coverages, standing around in the d zone. The biggest issue is how TERRIBLE they are at clearing the puck. I have never seen so many failed clearing attenpts by a team over the course of a season. People need to watch games and not just look up stats. The defense has played pretty bad, and i don't know how people can say they have played good

Bryz has been bad and inconsistent on his end too, but I think it's wrong when people act like the defense and the whole team is playing great, and Bryz is the sole one letting the team down and holding them back, that is simply untrue
I'm not saying the defense doesn't have some significant issues with breakdowns and turning over the puck. But to state Bryz has had zero help is bogus.

In fact I remember several games earlier in the season where we played a NYR style D and he still let in his normal 3GA.

I however do believe Bryz is a major cement block strapped to the feet of this team. Its become even more clear at who carried who last year as the offense this season has been very average and our record has reflected it.

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04-01-2013, 11:42 AM
  #727
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last season, many of us did wonder what would happen if Bryz kept the same save percentage and the offense went cold. Now we know.

As fun as it is () to delve into the quantum mechanics of his play and scrutinize every single goal against to determine they aren't his fault, the general relativity-type view of his body of work as a Flyer simply indicates he hasn't been good enough. He hasn't been the goaltending solution. He's been mediocre. He hasn't been the solution. It's even had a huge impact on the team; Homer has tried to bring in players to shield him, and tried to make Lavi coach outside of his comfort zone to protect him. We've seen how well that's gone this year.

This guy isn't the coveted goaltending solution. He's just another name in the long list of disappointing Flyers goalies. He's just another guy with a lot of promise who's fallen flat on his face...just another huge misstep by the team's management. And he carries an albatross of a contract. I hope Snider's hubris doesn't get in the way of doing what's right.

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04-01-2013, 12:49 PM
  #728
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Mediocre is right, but to actually shield Bryzgalov the Flyers would need to actually be good at passing and skating the puck out of their own zone. I don't see any evidence that Homer has brought in players who can help with that, or that Laviolette can come up with a system that allows the players that are already here to do so. What I do see are constant failed clearing attempts along the boards that lead into extended attack zone time for the other team, and a defense that leads the league in being shorthanded.

They can get a better goalie than Bryz for less money in 2014 after they buy him out, but they will never be a good team again until these glaring flaws are addressed.

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04-01-2013, 12:53 PM
  #729
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Mediocre is right, but to actually shield Bryzgalov the Flyers would need to actually be good at passing and skating the puck out of their own zone. I don't see any evidence that Homer has brought in players who can help with that, or that Laviolette can come up with a system that allows the players that are already here to do so. What I do see are constant failed clearing attempts along the boards that lead into extended attack zone time for the other team, and a defense that leads the league in being shorthanded.

They can get a better goalie than Bryz for less money in 2014 after they buy him out, but they will never be a good team again until these glaring flaws are addressed.
He's brought in stay at home defensemen ill-suited for Lavi's system, as well as Fedotenko, who is good defensively but isn't so hot at hard forechecking. The team as it's currently built doesn't make too much sense.

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04-01-2013, 12:54 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
He's brought in stay at home defensemen ill-suited for Lavi's system, as well as Fedotenko, who is good defensively but isn't so hot at hard forechecking. The team as it's currently built doesn't make too much sense.
I agree 100%. They lack the speed on the blue line.

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04-01-2013, 12:58 PM
  #731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
He's brought in stay at home defensemen ill-suited for Lavi's system, as well as Fedotenko, who is good defensively but isn't so hot at hard forechecking. The team as it's currently built doesn't make too much sense.
And getting two or three quality defensemne who are suited for Lavi's system by the start of next season seems almost impossible, therefore they need to get a new coach.

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04-01-2013, 01:06 PM
  #732
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I'm not calling anyone out specifically, as I think I may have been in this group, but weren't there a lot of people last season saying that the team had too many PMDs and that we needed more stay at home guys, which is why the team went after Grossmann and Schenn?

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04-01-2013, 01:18 PM
  #733
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Originally Posted by Curufinwe View Post
And getting two or three quality defensemne who are suited for Lavi's system by the start of next season seems almost impossible, therefore they need to get a new coach.
Yeah, I agree. Unless Lavi can create a new system someone else needs to be brought in who can work with the players we have.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
I'm not calling anyone out specifically, as I think I may have been in this group, but weren't there a lot of people last season saying that the team had too many PMDs and that we needed more stay at home guys, which is why the team went after Grossmann and Schenn?
Yep. But what we got was like saying "we have lots of centers and no right wingers" and then trading most of the centers for a bunch of right wingers

One problem solved, another created.

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04-01-2013, 02:33 PM
  #734
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the obsession with his numbers are ridiculous. i guarantee if these games played out the same way but that save perc. was a .915 or .920 you'd be fooled into having a different opinion just based off the number. all numbers are relative to the team around except the shootout. besides that there's no 100 percent true individual numbers.

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04-01-2013, 02:37 PM
  #735
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If he had a .915 or .920 he'd actually be playing well.

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04-01-2013, 02:38 PM
  #736
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If he had a .915 or .920 he'd actually be playing well.
What is .915 or .920 with same results?

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04-01-2013, 02:40 PM
  #737
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What is .915 or .920 with same results?
What, you mean the same goals against? The Flyers would probably need to be at the bottom of the league for shots allowed.

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04-01-2013, 02:41 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
What, you mean the same goals against? The Flyers would probably need to be at the bottom of the league for shots allowed.
Yeah same GAA. I'm not trying to pick on your or anything just asking.

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04-01-2013, 02:41 PM
  #739
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If he had a .915 or .920 he'd actually be playing well.
it doesn't take into account quality of shots. it just not enough to justify saying "he's fallen flat on his face". forget the contract. that's just you hating the dude.

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04-01-2013, 02:41 PM
  #740
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Originally Posted by funghoul View Post
it doesn't take into account quality of shots. it just not enough to justify saying "he's fallen flat on his face". forget the contract. that's just you hating the dude.
There was some study done showing a correlation between shots and scoring chances, he was talking about. Right? I am trying to remember.

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04-01-2013, 02:48 PM
  #741
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Yeah, a couple people with access to scoring chance stats found a correlation between shots allowed and scoring chances.

As for having the same GAA, I'm too busy at work to sort out the actual math...but for reference, Buffalo has the same GA/G with Miller at a .911 (He personally has a 2.89 GAA), and they allow a league worst 33.1 shots per game compared to Philly's 28 shots per game. Just eyeballing the numbers, I think they'd need to allow something like 35-37 shots against per game for a .920 to provide the same GA.

Maybe someone else can actually nail down that number

Edit: I did it anyways. for a .921 to allow 3 GAA, that would need about 38 shots against per game.

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04-01-2013, 02:52 PM
  #742
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Originally Posted by JDinklage Morgoone View Post
There was some study done showing a correlation between shots and scoring chances, he was talking about. Right? I am trying to remember.
yea. he did say something about that. i'm just making the point that he's not as bad as everyone acts. and i do think save perc is a more telling number than goals against but it is also still sort of a blanket number. it generalizes all shots as equal. i have the center ice package and most good goalies don't make more than 1 or two great saves a game for the most part. the rest are pretty much standard positioning and anticipating the play. the reason i defend him at all is that we allow a lot of goals from defensive breakdowns in the slot, whether their just turnovers or passive coverage. that's what frustrates me more than anything with us. he hasn't been dominick hasek 1999 but things are not his fault. he's played well.

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04-01-2013, 03:05 PM
  #743
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For a goalie to allow the same number of goals while putting up .920, going back to 1997, the 38 shots allowed per game would be the worst of any team.

I'm willing to be possibly the worst ever.

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04-01-2013, 03:52 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
For a goalie to allow the same number of goals while putting up .920, going back to 1997, the 38 shots allowed per game would be the worst of any team.

I'm willing to be possibly the worst ever.
BAH, its still not his fault...


hahaha

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04-01-2013, 04:03 PM
  #745
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BAH, its still not his fault...


hahaha
bah. duh.

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04-01-2013, 04:34 PM
  #746
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Look at what Bob is doing with a decent defense, and Bryz was better than him last year.

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04-01-2013, 04:41 PM
  #747
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Look at what Bob is doing with a decent defense, and Bryz was better than him last year.
Or it could be the fact that he's young and wait for it.............developing.

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04-01-2013, 05:15 PM
  #748
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A really good game from Bryz today

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Old
04-01-2013, 06:40 PM
  #749
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I have a free hour or two, it is late and I am still hungover from yesterday, so I am not going out, so I figured I would look at what we expect from Bryz, and how he actually performs vs his expectations, and where the team would be if he did perform statistically in a way we would be happy with.

What follows is not perfect insomuch as most statistical manipulation is.

Here goes my futile attempt! Hope you don't fall asleep before the end...

Facts:

Bryz is the 8th best paid goalie in the NHL.

Bryz averaged .916sv% before he came to us, good for between 6th and 8th best netminder since the last lockout.

We overpaid, well, not according to sv%, but we did, but still expect a top 10-12~ starter.

The 10-12th best starters per season in the NHL over the last 5 years average .9175sv%, over a 5 year period approximately .914sv% for the 10th-12th best guys over that period.

Bryz has averaged .906 since joining us. A .008 drop on his average, so about 12 goals per year.

Over a whole season .001% for a starter is usually equal to about 1.5 goals, so last season the difference between Bryz and the .917~ (top 10-12 starter, 45 games~, average of worst of top 10 over last few years) was also 12 goals per year.

Now for some fun:

Though this is a small sample we can assume from it that Bryz is letting in 12 goals a year more than he has over his career, and also ~12 more goals a year than we expect from him.

(As I'm sure if he was putting up .916 over the year and a half, or .917-.918 in one year, most of us would be happy with that statline.)

12 goals over a season, assuming Bryz starts 60-65 games a year for us (what we would expect really), equates to an extra .192 goals against per game.

Of course, you cannot score an extra .192 goals per game, so round that to 2.

Therefore, Bryz has been letting in an extra 1 goal every 5 games on average than both what we expect, and what he usually does, since joining the Flyers.

12 less goals against last year move us from the 20th best D to the 12th best.


We finished with +32 last season...

+32~ (between +25 and +40, as one or two games can make a massive difference to this, also strength of Conference, division etc, so I picked 8 goals either side as this is a 0.1 difference per game, which seems reasonable, if not statistically insignificant. Then I got an average over the last 5 years of teams scoring between +25 and +40.)

+32~ usually gets you 102-103 points.

102-103 points is on average (were in the Atlantic remember!) 4th, sometimes 5th, we came 5th.

(I know that this is not a perfect way to work it out, but others were very time consuming, averages of each team, conf, div and standard deviations included, so this was IMO the best fit to accurately represent the 12 goals without spending hours doing so.)

So:

If Bryz let in 12 less goals last year, we would have got +44~ (between +36 and +52 using same stat deviance as last time.)

+44~ usually gets you 106-107 points. This gets you 2nd most years, 3rd to 4th sometimes.

Therefore, Bryz's play since he joined the Flyers compared to before, or what we expect from him, has cost us 4 points a season, or two losses... but in such a tight league this is the difference in 2 places in seeding.

This year:

Bryz is at .900, over a season that is 24 goals, so 8 points~, over our half and a bit approx 5 points (assuming he stays at this figure.) That is a difference between playoffs and not.

So in conclusion, Bryz's play since he joined us, as we all no, is statistically subpar, though the margins are fine, in such a league as this such margins can be a massive difference.

If he had the same SV% as we expected last year, assuming the 4 points his sv% dropped were not against NYR or Pitt (12 games, so only a 1/7 chance STATISTICALLY) we would have stayed in 5th... though that year is an anomaly, it would usually be good for 2nd in the conf.

Overall his play is costing us a goal every 5 games, and 4 points per year, assuming it is him, and not other factors, in comparison to how good we expect him to, and how much we are paying him.

It seems nothing, but is actually a lot, it could be assumed so far this year that if he had a .917SV% we would now be on 36-38 points approximately, so in 8th place.


This however also seems to show that even if he was performing as we expected him to, (assuming again he is under-performing, or that Phoenixs system game him inflated stats) the team around him is still not actually that good if they would still only be creeping into the playoffs with Bryz on a .917SV%.

This is all a lot of 'what ifs' with many un-factored variables, and the main thing it shows is not actually how well he is playing, or our teams flaws, but instead what we expect from him, and where we would be if he put up his 'expected' numbers.

One thing it shows is our team this year would be only scraping into the playoffs even with a top 10, .917SV% goalie, (statistically speaking, ofc you cannot factor in when the saves are made etc, but this is all I can do, working from a set of 5year averages and correlation between goals against and points the teams have scored.

Therefore, while we can say some of it may be Bryz fault vs 'expected Bryz' a lot is also down to the team around him this year, as 8th seed is not, I imagine, where most of us want this team to be.

DISCLAIMER: I am not really in either camp over Bryz, I think he has under performed to what we expect from him, but that given our weakened team this season and other factors, cannot really make my mind up one way or the other... I am pretty neutral on the matter as there are good arguments both ways. Also, this is not a look at if Bryz is good or not, but instead how much difference there is compared to what we expect him, as a fanbase, to be.


Last edited by Appleyard: 04-01-2013 at 06:48 PM.
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Old
04-01-2013, 08:41 PM
  #750
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Quote:
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yea. he did say something about that. i'm just making the point that he's not as bad as everyone acts. and i do think save perc is a more telling number than goals against but it is also still sort of a blanket number. it generalizes all shots as equal. i have the center ice package and most good goalies don't make more than 1 or two great saves a game for the most part. the rest are pretty much standard positioning and anticipating the play.
Of course it's not a perfect metric by any means, and it does generalize all shot as being equal. But you mostly watch our games, and no one has really made a persuasive argument thus far as to how it is that we are the ones giving up more quality chances than other teams, despite the lower total shots allowed.

Plus, what you mention as standard positioning and anticipating the play is goaltending. No one is asking for Bryz to make awesome saves all errday. No one cares whether he gets over to the other side quicker, is in better position, keeps his glove in a better position, keeps his five-hole closed etc. and then makes the save look like an easy one rather than having to sprawl and flash gloves to compensate for a mistake he made otherwise. I mean, some of the saves he should've made are made to look easy by other goalies. And they add up. I think he can't be blamed for most goals, but like Appleton has mentioned, if every fifth game he was in better positioning or whatever and wouldn't have allowed a soft goal, things would be entirely different. I was just watching the Predators vs. Colorado highlights and there was one play where Varlamov got over to the other side of the crease in lightning speed, and he made the save that followed look easy. But if he was slower he'd have to lunge and then of course people would've said he couldn't have gotten that one.

I like Bryz and also think he's slightly better than what his stats show. But hey, you know what? That might be irrationality in me talking. There is absolutely no reason to believe that other than that I'm biased by actually liking the guy and following the Flyers. It might be true, but usually the save percentage is heavily correlated with how good goalies are. Look at Rinne. Started off great, had a high save percentage, then started letting in stinkers here and there, and he's back to the real world. On the other hand, Bobrovsky looked decent, but nothing spectacular in the beginning, and his numbers were also quite average. He starts playing well and it is reflected in his stats. Sure, there's always going to be outliers, but I don't think a case has been made here why Bryz would be one.

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