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Faint Glimmer of Hope: tracking the quest for 8th place

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Old
03-31-2013, 10:23 PM
  #1
stratedge
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Faint Glimmer of Hope: tracking the quest for 8th place

The purpose of the thread is for [mathematically] honest discussion of the Oiler's playoff hopes. Tracking results from the other games that matter and keeping tabs on where they could finish and how likely that is.

I will update this table each night with this re-ranking of the teams by their P% / maximum obtainable points, which many will agree is a better picture of where a team really stands in the playoff hunt. Nobody can afford losses; a game won holds your position, a game lost even with a loser point and you probably fall down the ladder.


Last updated April 7 (morning), removed all the now mostly uncatchable teams (St. Louis, L.A., Minnesota):
RankTeamGRWLOTPointsMax Points
711211424466
89191554361
910171564060
1010161573959
1110161573959
1211171733759

Oilers current odds: 14.7% (as of Apr 7) according to Sports Club Stats. Please note that this calculation is simulation based, not mathematically based.


Thanks Del Preston for the following:
Rk PtsROW3839404142434445464748H-A
44721- - - -@ANA@DALCOLANA@SJCBJDAL@MIN@DETSJ5-5
54714- - - -@CBJ@DET@DAL@PHXLAMINCBJDAL@PHX@LA4-6
64618- - - -CHISTLCBJ@CGY@EDM@SJCGYLAEDM@COL5-5
74418@NSH@MIN@CBJCHIVANPHXDAL@COLCOLCGYCHI7-4
84317- - - - - - - -SJ@CHI@NSH@CGY@VANPHXLANSH@DAL4-5
                
94014- - - -@VAN@EDM@CGYSJ@STL@CHI@DETSJCOL@ANA3-7
103916- - - -LA@NSHSJ@CHIVAN@STL@LA@SJCBJDET5-5
113914- - - -@ANAPHXCGYMIN@COLANAANACHI@MINVAN7-3
123912- - - -- - - -SJSTL@MIN@COL@ANA@LA@SJ@DALNSH3-6
133813- - - -- - - -- - - -STLDALDETVAN@CHICGY@DET@CBJ5-3


Last edited by stratedge: 04-07-2013 at 10:04 PM.
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Old
03-31-2013, 10:30 PM
  #2
stratedge
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Relevant games April 1

No significant progress today despite the win, as the 6/7/8 teams all won too. But some of the other teams in the running fell back.

TeamOppResult
CGY
MIN
COL
ANA
CHI
VAN

Logo shown for teams +/- 4 points from 8th in West.


Last edited by stratedge: 04-01-2013 at 11:25 PM.
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Old
03-31-2013, 10:33 PM
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This is an awesome idea. Thanks for putting it together; I'll be checking it regularly.


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Old
04-01-2013, 11:27 PM
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Relevant games April 2

TeamOppResult
LAK
COL

I removed P% from the OP table because it's redundant to max points (they both move in sync as they're based on the same variables).


Last edited by stratedge: 04-03-2013 at 09:40 AM.
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Old
04-01-2013, 11:38 PM
  #5
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Great thread.

You should do all of the relevant games in the second post just to keep it all in one place and make it easier to find.

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04-01-2013, 11:39 PM
  #6
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Lets hope the Jay Bo Curse continues in St. Louis.

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Old
04-01-2013, 11:41 PM
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402
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Yeah i like this thread but we could just put it in the ongoing playoff thread which should be renamed btw

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04-01-2013, 11:45 PM
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scid14
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No way should this be merged. It's a great compilation of data and statedge will be doing us all a favour in keeping it up to date. Deserves to be in an easy place to find, not lost in a thread.

But also...I'm sure the coming weeks aren't going to be good for my heart.


Last edited by scid14: 04-01-2013 at 11:53 PM.
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Old
04-02-2013, 12:30 AM
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Stoneman89
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Or you can just go to NHL.com for regular standings updates.

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Old
04-02-2013, 12:32 AM
  #10
scid14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Or you can just go to NHL.com for regular standings updates.
But nhl.com doesn't have max points, odds, standings, and smiley's all in one place.

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04-02-2013, 12:38 AM
  #11
Alex87
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Wow, when was the last time we could have a thread like this without it being a joke?

Improvement.

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Old
04-02-2013, 12:42 AM
  #12
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geez can u guys imagine us squeaking to 8th place and facing Chicago in a 7 game series. Damn that would be one heck of a series to watch.

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04-02-2013, 12:51 AM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scid14 View Post
No way should this be merged. It's a great compilation of data and statedge will be doing us all a favour in keeping it up to date. Deserves to be in an easy place to find, not lost in a thread.

But also...I'm sure the coming weeks aren't going to be good for my heart.
I agree about the work that statedge is doing, but the problem is that it's the same conversation as the "Are the playoffs makeable" thread. And we should have that talk in one place.

So would folks prefer that we shut that thread down and use this one for the playoff chase instead?

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04-02-2013, 12:52 AM
  #14
MetaOil1993
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loller12 View Post
geez can u guys imagine us squeaking to 8th place and facing Chicago in a 7 game series. Damn that would be one heck of a series to watch.
Great thread!, Edmonton usually plays pretty good against the Hawks the last few years. It would be a high scoring affair IMO, Would be very very entertaining , Lets just hope we make it.

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04-02-2013, 12:56 AM
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I tink canuck fans were confused by the fact we were cheering for their team

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04-02-2013, 12:58 AM
  #16
northern2020
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TOPPEP....that is all

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Old
04-02-2013, 12:59 AM
  #17
Oiltankjob Fail
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Stl has max 66 pts not 64 but whether this is move or not When Are playoffs makeable fills up I would like to make new one. Im superstitious and it has been working so far 7-2-2 since I made it so we need to keep rookie poster luck going, And yes I have a way better name for next thread.

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Old
04-02-2013, 01:01 AM
  #18
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Thread should be renamed:

TOPPEP: The Chronicles of the Bag

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Old
04-02-2013, 01:04 AM
  #19
scid14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
I agree about the work that statedge is doing, but the problem is that it's the same conversation as the "Are the playoffs makeable" thread. And we should have that talk in one place.

So would folks prefer that we shut that thread down and use this one for the playoff chase instead?
I would personally. That thread is already at 740 posts and will be closed at 1000 right? that will be tomorrow probably might as well continue the conversation here with a fresh thread and an updated op.

Just my opinion though.

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Old
04-02-2013, 01:05 AM
  #20
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Originally Posted by BFDBFD View Post
This is an awesome idea. Thanks for putting it together; I'll be checking it regularly.

Agreed. Thanks for doing this.

I hate looking at the standings because it bugs me how much better off we would have been if we didn't blow 2 goal leads in the 3rd against the Sharks and Wings in 2 consecutive games (and lose both in OT/SO).

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Old
04-02-2013, 01:07 AM
  #21
Dorian2
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Great thread.

I knew one of our posters would come through.

Exactly what I was looking for here.

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04-02-2013, 01:07 AM
  #22
s7ark
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scid14 View Post
I would personally. That thread is already at 740 posts and will be closed at 1000 right? that will be tomorrow probably might as well continue the conversation here with a fresh thread and an updated op.

Just my opinion though.
These are my thoughts too. Does anyone have any objections to that idea?

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04-02-2013, 01:28 AM
  #23
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My God..

Playoff hopes. I haven't had those in 5 years. Feels good. Real good.

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04-02-2013, 01:33 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by northern2020 View Post
TOPPEP....that is all
Not yet. We will know when the time has come.

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04-02-2013, 01:46 AM
  #25
darkwave09
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Feels strange scoreboard watching for wins instead of loses

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