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Winnipeg Jets 2013 Lineup and Statistical Analysis (See Post 1 for reference)

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Old
03-24-2013, 12:56 PM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by t0psh3lfclu7ch View Post
looks awesome but stopped reading when i saw "corsi"
What's wrong with Corsi. It's not some weird or made up stat. It's just all shot attempts for and against per 60 minutes.
I think most people don't trust it because they don't understand it or because the name isn't descriptive but named after Jim Corsi.

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03-26-2013, 04:14 PM
  #127
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SV% Update

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
14-2-2
2 losses in regulation (PIT and OTT)
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
3-12-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)
1 win is in SO (TOR)



We've still yet to lose to a non-playoff team with >=0.9 SV%
We've still yet to beat any team in regulation with <0.9 SV%

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03-26-2013, 04:15 PM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
14-2-2
2 losses in regulation (PIT and OTT)
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
3-12-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)
1 win is in SO (TOR)



We've still yet to lose to a non-playoff team with >=0.9 SV%
We've still yet to beat any team in regulation with <0.9 SV%
Almost like we're completely dependent on our consistently streaking net minder

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03-27-2013, 10:16 PM
  #129
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This is not looking at expected progress, under-performing or over-performing; this does not look at usage or the difficulty in getting their points.
This is strictly where they are sitting relative to the rest of the NHL.

The method is easy and simple. I just cut out all players with less than 10 games played and divide the NHL's overall production into lines A->B, B->C, C->D, D->F. You fit between A->B than you're producing at a first line level.

Now this may be a bit overly simplistic as some players fit into certain roles. Raffi Torres scores a lot of points relative to his time on ice, but isn't really considered a top6 guy. Some guys play on higher lines because they compliment well or open the ice for other players. So, as always take with some grain of salt.


NameP/60LinePercentileRelCorsi
Ladd 3.09 1 0.07 10.4
Wheeler 2.58 1 0.28 00.4
Kane 2.01 1 0.88 04.2
Little 1.88 2 0.11 00.4
Antropov 1.42 3 0.10 -04.1
Burmistrov 1.19 3 0.68 07.8
Wellwood 1.07 3 0.97 02.5
Miettinen 1.03 4 0.05 -00.9
Jokinen 0.73 4 0.55 -02.9
Slater 0.54 4 0.68 -10.4
Tangradi 0.52 4 0.70 -02.8
Wright 0.42 4 0.74 -14.0
Thorburn 0.35 4 0.79 00.9
Line is what their production value fits relative to all the players in the NHL
Percentile is the percentage within that line that they fit in
I added in RelCorsi so you can see which guys are getting out-chanced and by how much

EDIT: By the way, if Enstrom was a forward, he would be between Antropov and Burmistrov.


Last edited by garret9: 03-27-2013 at 10:30 PM.
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04-01-2013, 05:41 PM
  #130
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Ew:

Cam Charron ‏@camcharron 28m
Combined EV SV% for NHL goalies this year is .919. The combined EV SV% of all goalies this year signed to deals six years or longer is .918.

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04-01-2013, 06:29 PM
  #131
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Garret, what is the website you get your numbers from again?

Thanks

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04-01-2013, 06:50 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pegcity View Post
Garret, what is the website you get your numbers from again?

Thanks
most raw data is from:
behindthenet.ca
nicetimeonice.com
stats.hockeyanalysis.com

other sources for stats stuff:
nhlnumbers.com
arcticicehockey.com (before Jets 2.0 it was an advance stats blog)
mc79hockey

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04-03-2013, 10:41 PM
  #133
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I hope we re-sign Hainsey this summer:

Jets Zone Start Adjusted CF%
2012-13:
Bogo w/Hains 51.2
Bogo w/o 45.6

2011-12:
Bogo w/Hains 51.4
Bogo w/o 49.4

Summary: Ron makes Bogo better

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04-03-2013, 10:50 PM
  #134
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Do you have TOI data for who else Bogo has been playing with for that sample? I would hazard a guess that its a lot of Stuart and other less qualified partners.

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04-03-2013, 10:56 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I hope we re-sign Hainsey this summer:

Jets Zone Start Adjusted CF%
2012-13:
Bogo w/Hains 51.2
Bogo w/o 45.6

2011-12:
Bogo w/Hains 51.4
Bogo w/o 49.4

Summary: Ron makes Bogo better
Seems like Hainsey might also be a good partner for Trouba. I don't like the idea of Trouba with Stuart or Enstrom (not enough size).

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04-03-2013, 10:56 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I hope we re-sign Hainsey this summer:

Jets Zone Start Adjusted CF%
2012-13:
Bogo w/Hains 51.2
Bogo w/o 45.6

2011-12:
Bogo w/Hains 51.4
Bogo w/o 49.4

Summary: Ron makes Bogo better
What collection of waiver wire castoffs and puck flubbing gong-show artists are paired with Bogo when he's not with Hainsey though?

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04-03-2013, 10:58 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
most raw data is from:
behindthenet.ca
nicetimeonice.com
stats.hockeyanalysis.com

other sources for stats stuff:
nhlnumbers.com
arcticicehockey.com (before Jets 2.0 it was an advance stats blog)
mc79hockey
Is there a source for face-off % stratified by PP/PK by zone? It seems that the Jets too often start without the puck on PP faceoffs in the O zone, and the opposition wins too many draws in our zone on our PK.

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04-03-2013, 11:02 PM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wpgpage View Post
Do you have TOI data for who else Bogo has been playing with for that sample? I would hazard a guess that its a lot of Stuart and other less qualified partners.
The stats above are per icetime, so that doesn't affect it... but if you want it:

2012-13 Bogo non-Hainsey 5v5 TOI
Byfuglien 31
Clitsome 30
Postma 20
Stuart 17
Enstrom 7
Meech 6

2011-12 Bogo non-Hainsey 5v5 TOI
Stuart 369
Oduya 248
Enstrom 100
Byfuglien 41
Festerling 27
Flood 19
Kulda 3
Postma 2
Meech 1



OT and for fun:
2010-13 Bogo w/ Enstrom
300 mins CF% 49.2

Makes sense though... Bogosian always talks about how he enjoys playing with Hainsey as Hainsey directs him on the ice, and defensive zone coverage has always been a big weakness for Bogo



Quote:
Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
Is there a source for face-off % stratified by PP/PK by zone? It seems that the Jets too often start without the puck on PP faceoffs in the O zone, and the opposition wins too many draws in our zone on our PK.
No clue. I only get FO% from the original source of NHL.com

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04-06-2013, 10:22 AM
  #139
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I sorta (not really) invented a stat... I call it score...
It's points/60 but without secondary assists, as they tend to be driven by luck (ie: variance) more than ability, relative to the other two.

NameG/60A1/60Score/60RelCorsi
Ladd 1.13 0.92 2.05 9.5
Wheeler 1.22 0.61 1.83 1.4
Kane 0.92 0.74 1.66 2.6
Little 0.41 0.81 1.22 -0.9
Antropov 0.35 0.71 1.06 -3.5
Burmistrov 0.53 0.40 0.93 9.8
Wellwood 0.31 0.62 0.93 3.5
Santorelli 0.44 0.22 0.66 1.5
Tangradi 0.20 0.41 0.61 2.7
Thorburn 0.30 0.30 0.60 2.1
Jokinen 0.53 0.00 0.53 -4.1
Miettinen 0.50 0.00 0.50 -11.1
Slater 0.27 0.00 0.27 -10.4
Wright 0.21 0.00 0.21 -14.0
numbers are for 5v5 only, with +10GP... Cormier removed because he really didn't play most of his 10 games


Doesn't really affect our top7 but man does it change the bottom.
If you're looking at P/60 it goes:
Ladd, Wheeler, Kane, Little, Antropov, Wellwood, Miettinen, Jokinen, Tangradi, Santorelli, Thorburn, Slater, Wright

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04-06-2013, 10:51 AM
  #140
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SV% Update

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
15-3-2
3 losses in regulation (PITx2 and OTT)
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
3-16-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)
1 win is in SO (TOR)


We've still yet to lose to a non-playoff team with >=0.9 SV%
We've still yet to beat any team in regulation with <0.9 SV%

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04-06-2013, 11:38 AM
  #141
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Really wish we traded for Bishop. Wanted him LAST year.

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04-06-2013, 11:47 AM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ducky View Post
Really wish we traded for Bishop. Wanted him LAST year.
Ya... I wanted Bobrovsky last season too.

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04-14-2013, 02:56 PM
  #143
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Just added this to first post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Statistical References and Websites:
Arctic Ice Hockey - Winnipeg Jets blog that commonly dips into advance statistics
Behind The Net - site that draws NHL.com stats and places it into adv. stats
Nice Time on Ice - another raw data site (but different) like Behind the Net
Hockey Analysis - third raw data site I (and others) commonly use
NHL Numbers - a NHL blog that also leans on advance statistics
Jets Nation - the Jets section of NHL Numbers (emphasis on Robert Cleave's work)

Arctic Ice Hockey was originally an advance statistics blog started up by Winnipegger Gabe (same guy who runs Behind the Net), and so has a lot of information on the advance statistics themselves in our archives. Our editors recently organized all the pre-Jets 2.0 advance stats write ups.
We recently organized all the old writeups on advance statistics and what they mean ->HERE<-
Mostly added this for those with questions or curiosity of the world of underlying number statistics.

I highly advise checking out the link I placed on the bottom of the quote for those who are interested in learning more about stats. Gabe (AKA Hawerchuk) wrote many great articles about frequently asked questions and normal misconceptions.


Last edited by garret9: 04-15-2013 at 07:25 PM.
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04-14-2013, 03:54 PM
  #144
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SV% Update

Jets' when at or above a 0.900 goaltending (league average goaltending is around 0.914)
18-3-2
3 losses in regulation (PITx2 and OTT)
2 OTL are both in SO (BOS and NJD)

Jets' when below a 0.900 goaltending (again remember league average is around 0.914)
3-16-0
2 wins are in OT (FLA and NYI)
1 win is in SO (TOR)


We've still yet to lose to a "currently at the time" non-playoff team with >=0.9 SV% (see edit)
We've still yet to beat any team in regulation with <0.9


EDITed: I'm dumb... NJD is no longer a playoff team... but they were top contenders at the time of the loss.


Last edited by garret9: 04-15-2013 at 07:28 PM.
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04-14-2013, 04:09 PM
  #145
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Pretty striking. I'm curious Garret, are the Jets exceptional in that regard? I would imagine that the fewer goals a team scores, the more likely they are to show such a large difference in wins when getting >.900 goaltending vs. <.900 goaltending.

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04-15-2013, 10:18 AM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Pretty striking. I'm curious Garret, are the Jets exceptional in that regard? I would imagine that the fewer goals a team scores, the more likely they are to show such a large difference in wins when getting >.900 goaltending vs. <.900 goaltending.
I'd imagine so as well, because while the other goaltenders Sv% isn't weighted into the equation at all, it's certainly no shock that Pitt has twice been the team to beat us when Pavs does show up.

Which now that I think about it makes less sense, as you'd expect those games to be the 1 - 0 games or the 2 - 1 games against defensive teams.

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04-15-2013, 07:21 PM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Pretty striking. I'm curious Garret, are the Jets exceptional in that regard? I would imagine that the fewer goals a team scores, the more likely they are to show such a large difference in wins when getting >.900 goaltending vs. <.900 goaltending.
I did it manually by looking up every game... no way I'm doing that for other teams
haha

Be interesting to see what other teams are like, but one thing to point out is that because the arbitrary line I drew is below league average, I'd say ours is probably more drastic than most teams...

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04-15-2013, 07:47 PM
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I did it manually by looking up every game... no way I'm doing that for other teams
haha

Be interesting to see what other teams are like, but one thing to point out is that because the arbitrary line I drew is below league average, I'd say ours is probably more drastic than most teams...
And also right around Pavelecs average.

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04-15-2013, 08:58 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
I did it manually by looking up every game... no way I'm doing that for other teams
haha

Be interesting to see what other teams are like, but one thing to point out is that because the arbitrary line I drew is below league average, I'd say ours is probably more drastic than most teams...
Could probably have saved yourself a little time by filtering here:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...=&order_by=age

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07-31-2013, 11:37 AM
  #150
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So... The San Jose Shark apparently have scouts tracking Corsi for EVERY CHL GAME by hand...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fear The Fin AKA ‏@fearthefin
Sharks apparently have a bunch of people hand-tracking Corsi for every CHL game. That's awesome but it sounds brutal.

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