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[NAS/WAS] Martin Erat and Michael Latta for Filip Forsberg

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Old
04-04-2013, 02:47 AM
  #426
biturbo19
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Originally Posted by SimplySensational View Post
I went into acceptance stage, but back to being livid.

The only way I could be madder is if it was Kuzya.

Really, its not surprising. This team scratches Olrov(GA/20 .288) for Schultz(.917).... Oh yeah and Orlov's GF/20 is 1.7 and Schultz is .488.
The bright side, is that Erat has better stats than Forsberg in the NHL this year. So by that metric, Caps win!!!

But really, yeah, it's a desperate job-saving attempt by McPhee. Bad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BourqueBourqueBork View Post
First off, while Martin Erat plays for Nashville, that doesn't mean he's not an offensively gifted forward. He's no gamebreaker, but he's been remarkably consistent at hitting around or above the 50 point mark. On a lot of teams, I would say you could bump that up to close to 60 points.
Why is that a reasonable assumption? Just bump production up 10pts because it's not Nashville? Just look at Fisher...he for all intents and purposes, matched his career high in points right after joining Nashville, in fewer games even. And there are plenty of examples of guys who are more 'productive' in Nashville's system than elsewhere. With all of the serious talent in Washington, it wouldn't surprise me if Erat ended up buried a bit with less prime opportunities offensively, and lesser output even.

Quote:
Secondly, he's not a rental. If Erat was a UFA this summer, I could see why people would be screaming about this deal...but he's signed through '14-15. So that's 2 full seasons and potentially 3 playoff runs.
The problem is, $4.5M with a NMC isn't necessarily great value for a 31 year old ~50pt player a few years from now. So being under contract is a positive...but that contract, it really depends on what he does over the next few years i guess, but as he ages later into his 30s i doubt it's going to get better.

Quote:
The downside of the deal is that Washington traded away a prospect that could be potentially huge down the road. We all know prospects are unproven, but this could bite the Caps hard if Erat's production wanes over the next two years and Forsberg turns out to be a stud. Even if Forsberg only puts up Erat numbers, Nashville would likely still come out ahead in that regard. They'll really come out ahead if he turns into a bonafide Top 3 forward (league standards, not Nashville standards).
This is the meat of the issue, and what makes the trade so awful.

Erat is an 'okayish' 2nd line player. Forsberg is a potential impact prospect. The sort of guy who could be HUGE down the line. And in terms of floor...Forsberg has the tools to where his downside looks like that of a 2nd line winger with the size teams covet.

As a deal...that's a whole lot of upside to give up for a proven mediocre player.

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04-04-2013, 03:04 AM
  #427
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Here is a different way of looking at this deal:

From Nashville: 2012 #21, Erat, Latta
To Nashville: Gaustead, 2013 4th round, 2012 #11 (Forsberg)


From Washington perspective----

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04-04-2013, 03:10 AM
  #428
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Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post

This is the meat of the issue, and what makes the trade so awful.

Erat is an 'okayish' 2nd line player. Forsberg is a potential impact prospect. The sort of guy who could be HUGE down the line. And in terms of floor...Forsberg has the tools to where his downside looks like that of a 2nd line winger with the size teams covet.

As a deal...that's a whole lot of upside to give up for a proven mediocre player.
This is still a wildcard----

Washington does have young forward depth in their system.

some scouts are unsure with him. Could he be a 1st liner or a 3rd liner. This was a fair risk on Nashville's part while Washington wants to try and win now.

Latta who they also got back is replacing Forsberg in their system.

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04-04-2013, 03:14 AM
  #429
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Really don't get this from the Caps perspective. Erat is solid, but not good enough to give up a blue chip prospect for, and I'm not even a huge Forsberg fan.

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04-04-2013, 04:08 AM
  #430
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
This is still a wildcard----

Washington does have young forward depth in their system.

some scouts are unsure with him. Could he be a 1st liner or a 3rd liner. This was a fair risk on Nashville's part while Washington wants to try and win now.

Latta who they also got back is replacing Forsberg in their system.
Is it really though?

That's where scouting comes in. And when you watch Forsberg...he has so many tools. High end skill, prototypical size, hockey sense. He may not be a great distributor of the puck, but he has solid creativity and vision offensively and the size to be a menace at the next level.

Nothing is guaranteed...but do you give that up for an average sized player with average attributes and average production, who is more than a decade older? No. You don't, unless you're a desperate GM, or you have some serious doubts about Forsberg's upside. And i haven't seen much to indicate his upside has dropped off since being drafted.

MPS is the example many toss out there in this case...but even MPS still has potential 2nd line upside...and he doesn't have anything close to the pure skillset that Forsberg has. MPS is faster yes, but Forsberg is a guy who can actually do things with the puck at a high speed, while skating very adequately if not better.

Forsberg has the same sort of 2nd line downside as Erats ceiling...with an extra potential decade of production factored in. It just seems silly to me.

Of course, everything could always go tragically wrong with Forsberg and he could amount to absolutely nothing as an NHLer...but at this point, i don't see it. And i don't think it would take long before Forsberg would be the superior winger in the NHL to Erat. Though who knows what will happen in the Predators system...they don't exactly have a sparkling track record developing standout offensive players.

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04-04-2013, 04:38 AM
  #431
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Originally Posted by BourqueBourqueBork View Post
Secondly, he's not a rental. If Erat was a UFA this summer, I could see why people would be screaming about this deal...but he's signed through '14-15. So that's 2 full seasons and potentially 3 playoff runs.
I think this is actually why you'll see a lot of caps fans raging about this deal. An extra 4.5 mil next year makes re-signing Ribero extremely difficult almost to the point of a practical impossibility. The caps go straight back to having no real second line centre.

The caps have 54M committed to 17 players next year, which leaves them with 10M to fill 6-7 roster spots. However, the need to give raises to Alzner (currently 1.7), Mojo (currently .9) and Neuvirth (currently 1.15). I'd imagine Alzner gets at least 3, maybe as high as 4. You re-sign the others and add your 4th liners and 6/7 D-men, and that's it - you're at the cap.

Potentially, you can dump Schultz (2.275) and Ward (3.0), but you still need to replace them both. So if you're lucky, you have 4.5-4.8 to throw at Ribero. Does that get it done? For a UFA 70 point centre on his last big contract? Erat's 4.5 next year is what makes this a bad deal for Washington to me, when you've finally got the 2nd line centre you've needed for, what, 5 years? With Kuznetsov not coming over until after the Olympics by all reports?

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04-04-2013, 04:44 AM
  #432
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Sad to see Marty go but hoping not only does Forsberg pan out but that he can wear #21.

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04-04-2013, 04:54 AM
  #433
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Guys, stop overrating prospects

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04-04-2013, 05:44 AM
  #434
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Originally Posted by Foot View Post
Guys, stop overrating prospects
You dont last too long on this boards..

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04-04-2013, 05:50 AM
  #435
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Holy ****ing ****. Forsberg goes from being a possible 2nd overall pick to traded for a possibly declining Martin Erat in a few months?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vippe View Post
I had problems sleeping tonight. And it's most certainly GMGMs fault.



If he truly believes that he has no spot as a NHL GM. Filip Forsberg is sounds better than he was when he was traded. He was one of the most important player on a team that has been stacked for years but failed to get back to Elitserien. He was dominating came 2nd in goals and averaged a point per game against the tough competition in Kvalserien. Voted Best player on silvermedal winning team at the WJC. Forsbergs value has never been higher than it was right now and he was selling him for Martin Erat. It makes no sense what so ever. Unless they truly believe Martin Erat is the missing piece for a Stanley Cup run.. and honestly.. do anyone believe that?
Yeah, it is a bit strange but I guess (hope!) there is some alternate logic at swing here.

Anyway, to generalise and extrapolate a bit, Forsberg is among the best Swedish prospects around and it is fair to believe that Sweden will produce some top 6 quality forwards in the foreseeable future. Forsberg is likely to be one of them, more likely than not at least. So Nashville will have a top 6 forward, possible in AHL the coming season and might be in NHL the next 2 years of his contract for basically nothing. No risk with high possibility of a reward for years after those current contract years.

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04-04-2013, 05:55 AM
  #436
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What trade is?

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04-04-2013, 06:22 AM
  #437
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At first I thought Washington lost this trade BIG time! Now I`m not so sure?

1. Erat is 30yrs old.
2. He averaged 55-60p/ season on a lowscoring team out west.
3. Hes on contract for 2,5 seasons with a 4,5mill cap, when he gets paid 1.136mill, 3.750mill, 2.750mill - thats Leino-money...
4. Now he gets to play on a offensive-minded team in the East with scorers - he`s numbers will probably only rise?

Looks much better than at first glance IMO...

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04-04-2013, 06:37 AM
  #438
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jonlin View Post
At first I thought Washington lost this trade BIG time! Now I`m not so sure?

1. Erat is 30yrs old.
2. He averaged 55-60p/ season on a lowscoring team out west.
3. Hes on contract for 2,5 seasons with a 4,5mill cap, when he gets paid 1.136mill, 3.750mill, 2.750mill - thats Leino-money...
4. Now he gets to play on a offensive-minded team in the East with scorers - he`s numbers will probably only rise?

Looks much better than at first glance IMO...
But... but... Forsberg is 0.9 PPG in Sweden 2nd tier league!
I agree is that's too early to judge.

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04-04-2013, 07:04 AM
  #439
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wow, what a stupid trade by the caps..

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04-04-2013, 07:30 AM
  #440
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Caps overpaid for a good player.

Having said that, welcome to DC Erat, always liked your game.

I'm also pleased that this very may well cost GMGM his job this summer, so it's a personal victory for many weary Caps fans if this happens.

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04-04-2013, 07:47 AM
  #441
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jonlin View Post
At first I thought Washington lost this trade BIG time! Now I`m not so sure?

1. Erat is 30yrs old.
2. He averaged 55-60p/ season on a lowscoring team out west.
3. Hes on contract for 2,5 seasons with a 4,5mill cap, when he gets paid 1.136mill, 3.750mill, 2.750mill - thats Leino-money...
4. Now he gets to play on a offensive-minded team in the East with scorers - he`s numbers will probably only rise?

Looks much better than at first glance IMO...
Erat gets younger and younger Hes actually 31 years old(32 in august)-
He has 4 goals so far this season in 35 gp, thats a bit scaring when you know his age.

Big problem for the caps to afford to resign Ribeiro, this move is as bad as it looks, GmGm trying to reach playoffs saving his own a ss with a panic trade.

Forsberg hasnt shown any signs to regress as a elite prospect, actually he looks better then ever.

Mention it before! A week ago was GmGm very happy over Forsbergs development this year and wanted him over to finish the season in hersey.

What has happened in a week? What ever GMGM tells us afterwards hasnt any corn of truths, everyone with common sense can see what happened here,a drastic awful panic move to save GMGM own a ss!

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04-04-2013, 07:55 AM
  #442
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This season, Washington won this trade.

Come next season and the following 15 years, Nashville will win this tradeoff BIG TIME.

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04-04-2013, 08:24 AM
  #443
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Originally Posted by McClelland View Post
Erat gets younger and younger Hes actually 31 years old(32 in august)-
He has 4 goals so far this season in 35 gp, thats a bit scaring when you know his age.

Big problem for the caps to afford to resign Ribeiro, this move is as bad as it looks, GmGm trying to reach playoffs saving his own a ss with a panic trade.

Forsberg hasnt shown any signs to regress as a elite prospect, actually he looks better then ever.

Mention it before! A week ago was GmGm very happy over Forsbergs development this year and wanted him over to finish the season in hersey.

What has happened in a week? What ever GMGM tells us afterwards hasnt any corn of truths, everyone with common sense can see what happened here,a drastic awful panic move to save GMGM own a ss!

I get all this but people try to make it worse than it is! Erat is no Scrub, Washington just basically traded a top 15 1st 2013(similar value) for Erat. I would call it an overpayment, but not by much!
How many first rounders becomes 55-60pt NHL-players?

Erat is also on a good contract and signed for 2 more yrs after this. All prospects seem to be "Will become 90-100pt 1-liner" on HF...

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04-04-2013, 08:48 AM
  #444
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If Forsberg just becomes the next Erat for the next 11 seasons it's a good trade for Nashville. Erat is older and was battling guys like Wilson, Beck and Bourque for playing time, I can see why he wanted to be moved and I will miss him. Nashville is getting younger and bigger, Erat can see the big picture.

This season has been a write off for Nashville. We're too green on the blueline and have had too many injuries up front.

What I'm hoping is, we can add a defenseman in the off season and our young guys can continue to progress, taking us back to normal next season.

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04-04-2013, 08:50 AM
  #445
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The only reason the Caps overpaid was because we learned that Erat wanted out. Based on that, the return shouldn't have been more than a 2nd + mid prospect. But other than that, it's not as bad as most are making it out to be. This season, Erat has been awful, but it's probably because he wasn't happy. In a more offensive system, he will flourish. He's consistently put up 50-60 pts. and he'll do it again.

Plus, the Caps were the only SE team to do something! Can't believe the Jets or the Canes didn't do anything.

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04-04-2013, 09:06 AM
  #446
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post
MPS is the example many toss out there in this case...but even MPS still has potential 2nd line upside...and he doesn't have anything close to the pure skillset that Forsberg has. MPS is faster yes, but Forsberg is a guy who can actually do things with the puck at a high speed, while skating very adequately if not better.
Show me the stats. Paajarvi was just better. Not by miles, but better, especially in the U20 age group. And look how he has struggled. I don't think this trade is as big a slam dunk as many are making it out to be. Forsberg is no sure thing.

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04-04-2013, 09:07 AM
  #447
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Seems bad for Wash. They aren't really going anywhere this year, and Forsberg is an A+ prospect.

To give him up for average players is a bizarre move, especially considering their standing.

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04-04-2013, 09:08 AM
  #448
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Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
All I'm saying is lets see what kind of player FF turns out to be before we declare a winner. GMGM felt he was tradeable (ie not developing as a top 15 pick) so he traded him. If FF turns out to be a solid top 6 winger then Wsh loses this trade big time. If FF busts like a Gilbert Brule, then Washington wins, giving up the equivalent of a 7th round pick (nothing).

Its way too early to call a winner on this trade. The caps organization knows a lot more about Forsberg than anyone on this board, that is for certain.
First, while it is not impossible that internal opinion of Forsberg had soured, it is EXTREMELY difficult to imagine how this could have happened in just 9 months without anyone on the outside having any hint of it. Forsberg has not gotten into any published personal problems. No arrests, no drug suspensions, no fist fights with coaches. In terms of on-ice play, he excelled at the WJC, and has been playing quite well in his pro league. Lastly, it's the same team of people running the show now who were running the show in June. So it's not like a new GM came in with a different view on the player. I know it makes the trade easier to understand to presume that SOMETHING must have led to the team devaluaing Forsberg. But absent any hint of what that might be, or even a hint that such a devaluation occurred, I think we have to assume that he was not devalued and evaluate this trade for what it appears to be on its face.

Second, this idea that we can't possibly evaluate a trade now because we have to see how the player turns out is just wrong from the Caps perspective. Maybe it's true for Nashville, but the Caps can and should be evaluated based on asset management. Irrespective of what Forsberg becomes, he is a present-day asset with present day value, and the Caps did not do an effective job of managing the asset. They had the #11 pick in a deep draft, and 9 months later they have Martin Erat and Michael Latta.

Out of curiousity, can anyone recall a deal quite like this? Where a teams ships an ELITE prospect -- as in a guy regarded as being a top 20 overall type prospect in all of hockey -- and that prospect is the only piece going out the door in exchange for a "package" of stuff?

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04-04-2013, 09:10 AM
  #449
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Actually, I'm really excited to see what Erat can do on a more offensive team than the Predators. Don't know why, but I always liked Erat.

If he plays with either Backstrom or Ribeiro, it could be really entertaining.

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04-04-2013, 10:10 AM
  #450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biturbo19 View Post

Erat is an 'okayish' 2nd line player. Forsberg is a potential impact prospect. The sort of guy who could be HUGE down the line. And in terms of floor...Forsberg has the tools to where his downside looks like that of a 2nd line winger with the size teams covet.

As a deal...that's a whole lot of upside to give up for a proven mediocre player.
Erat's numbers the last seven seasons, if he would have played in all 82 games:

06/07 - 68
07/08 - 62
08/09 - 58
09/10 - 54
10/11 - 64
11/12 - 67
12/13 - 48

Looks like he's been averaging about 60 points per full season. That's not necessarily an "okay" 2nd liner considering there's only about 40-45 players each year that score more points than that... Also not bashing Forsberg but there's no guarantee he ever reaches that point total. His ceiling has come into question many times. If anything he's the one that could be an "okay" 2nd liner, while Erat is certainly a solid 1st line player at this point.

Also, earlier in your post you said there's no guarantee he'd score more, but there's a very good chance considering his best linemate was probably Legwand who would be 3rd line on Washington.

I don't think the Caps should've traded Forsberg but its quite annoying to see posts such as this where Erat is being sold short, and Forsberg is being overrated. He's a very good prospect but will likely max out at 60-70 points, if that, as his upside isn't as high as other highly rated prospects. There's a decent chance he never reaches Erat's level of production.

A few other things to think about as well:

1. The Caps still have Kuznetsov who is a fair margin better than Forsberg (not a knock on Forsberg as Kuz is one of the best prospects in the world). So that leaves Ovechkin, Johansson, Brouwer, Laich, Kuznetsov on the wing as well as Erat now and Wilson next year.

2. Even if the Caps miss the playoffs the trade could be seen as Erat + Latta + top 14 pick for Forsberg, in a way. I'd take a proven top line winger in Erat + two unproven prospects over 2 unproven prospects.


Last edited by caps4cup: 04-04-2013 at 10:21 AM.
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