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The New Salary Cap ERA aka You can't have it all

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04-04-2013, 08:51 AM
  #1
Jtown
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The New Salary Cap ERA aka You can't have it all

Everyone on this board always talks about the need to get a #1 dman and a #1 goalie for this team. But as we move forward I think we are going to see a shift in that type of thinking. I don't think the Flyers will Struggle with getting who they want, I think they will struggle with Being able to fit all they want into a 60 mill cap.

So i wanted to break down what ideally you want out of your team in terms of Salary per position.


1s tLine 5m 7m 5m

The going rate for a 1c varies wildly across the board. It seems that traditional Hockey markets have been able to keep the value of their 1c closer to the 7m figure whereas non traditional markets have had to overpay for their start c. Examples would be Detroit, New York, Chicago, Boston. Non traditional markets that have had to overpay for their 1c are Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa bay, and to some extent Minny.
Wingers can vary as well with Ovi, parise, Nash, Perry and Heatly all in the top 10 of cap hits. Luckily the flyers do not have any players of that caliber and are not locked into contracts like that. Our wingers are Hartnell and Voracek who make up slightly less cap hit than what i wrote.

2nd Line 4m 5m 4m

5m seems to be the going rate of a quality 2nd center. With players like Bergeron, Kesler, Riberio, Mike richards all in this range . Obcviously depending on your quality of 2nd center the price can range from 3.5 for a guy like turris to 6 mill for a player like jordan staal. 2nd line Wingers are hard to define simply because of all the line changes teams have. For instance Patrick kane when not on a line with Toews is a 2nd line winger, same With Hossa sometimes, so its all very relative. But for the sake of this model I will say that a 4m budget for a winger is a safe assumption.

3rd line. id allocate 3-6 million for this line. The skill of this line is really going to be dependant on1 thing and that is the talent of the rookies you have on the ELC

4th line- 2-3 million. Pkers, Forecheckers, face off specialists, and anyone else make up this line



Now on to Defense.

The Defintion Ill use here for a number 1 dman is a player who plays all situations and is your best defenceman in those situations. This is where the have and the Have nots really seperate themsevles.

1st Pairing: 6m 5m

THe going rate for a top dman is right around 7-6m. Players signed to this level of money include Mike green, boyle, Phaneuf, Bouwmeester, Brent Burns, Kimmo, Karlsson, Chara, Dougty.

2nd pairing: 5m 4m

Mid range guys include Bieksa, Hamhuis, Edler, Coburn, Carle, Martin, Pitkanen and Kronwall. To me this money range is where there is a discrepancy in talent.


3rd pairing : 1M 1M ----guys like gervais and Huskins

If you have allocated this money to your 1st , 2nd pairing you will need to spend minimally on the 3rd.


Goalie: 5m
2m


The top goaltenders in the world make 6 million and up. They include, Lundqvist, Rinne, Miller, Ward, and Price. However you can find very good goalies at all price ranges,most are out performing their contract and are due for big raises. But on the safe side allocating 5m for a goalie is reasonable. Top backups can make anywhere from 1m- 2m


So to make this visually more appealing:

1st: 5m 7m 5m
2nd 4m 5m 4m
3rd 3-6 million
4th 2-3 million


1st Pair: 6mill 5 mill
2nd pair 4mill 4 mill
3rd pair 1m 1m


Goalie 5m
2m

as you can see this is a very conservative outline with modest spending at all positions and this team is still over the cap. What this tells you is that going forward, teams that over pay are certain positions are not going to be able to be competiive unless they have some very great underpaying contracts to counter act them or some very talented players on ELC.

Vancouver is the best example of this outline. While they do not have a true 1 d they have a wide range of skill on their defense with all players making 4 m and up. I like this strategy a bit more than having 1 7m guy and a horrible 3rd pairing.

Carolina is the worst example of this . Having 2 C that are making above the norm for their position, A winger who has a much higher cap hit than he should, and a goalie with a very high cap hit. As a result the rest of the lineup will suffer because of it.

How does this apply to the Flyers?

Well lets slot them in

Hartnell Giroux Voracek - hartnell and Voracek are underpaid as 1st line wingers and that extra money can hopefully go to giroux to get him extended. Giroux at 7.5 mill for 8 years?

Read Schenn Simmonds - Simmonds will never be traded simply because his contract at right around 4 m is incredible in terms of his production. He scores at 1st line winger rate while being payed 2nd line winger money. Read will obviously command a bigger contract soon, and we have lucked out getting his production at 900k. Schenn has not performed like a 2nd line center and hopefully any extension with him will reflect that.

Mcginn/Cousin Couturier Gagne- In terms of next year this would be as good as we can hope for a 3rd line. Hopefully gags signs cheap.

Rinaldo Talbot Mcginn/ adirondack filler. Talbot at 1.8 is making most of the lines 3 million budget. But his versatility warrants it.


Defense

kimmo Schenn
Coburn Grossman
Mez Gus


Bryz
?

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04-04-2013, 09:20 AM
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JDinklage Morgoone
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I agree with your cash distributions.

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04-04-2013, 09:37 AM
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very nice analysis.

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04-04-2013, 09:46 AM
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easier said than done

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04-04-2013, 09:48 AM
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Agreed. Having a goalie with a 5.6 caphit whose playing at best like one with a 4mil cap hit isnt helping. And I actually like Bryz

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04-04-2013, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by FLYERSFAN18 View Post
Agreed. Having a goalie with a 5.6 caphit whose playing at best like one with a 4mil cap hit isnt helping. And I actually like Bryz
I think a lot of people have a hard time dealing with the fact that Bryz will never be the goalie we want him to be because of how he is off the ice.

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04-04-2013, 10:01 AM
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The cap is going to drop to to $64.3 next year, and then will probably jump back up to $67.5 or something around there the year after. Even being conservative it'll still rise by $2m, and then another $2m after that. The problem is going to be next year, and I think that's why they're going to try to move/buyout Briere or Bryz or Mez. They'll clear salary somehow. Going forward I don't believe the cap will be much of a problem. It will be back to where it is now in a couple seasons.

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04-04-2013, 10:01 AM
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Teams like the Bruins, Kings, and Blackhawks , as well as vancouver, have showed how to win in this league.

Teams like San jose, Capitals, and Rangers have shown how not to have success.

Yes luck plays a role in it, but it is no coincidence that the past 3 cup winners have had 3rd lines that are a scoring threat, and a 3rd pairing that can play regular minutes. The blueprint is not have a dominant 1st line with a stud goalie, the blueprint is balance throughout the lineup and to have a diversity of skill in throughout the lineup. Mobile defenseman, Stay at home defenceman, Crease clearing defenseman, pp qb defenseman.....would be great if that was 1 player but that dman does not exist. Instead those skills need to be seen throughout your 6 dmen.

The blueprint is out there, teams just have to be disciplined enough to follow it, that means not trade for the prized winger like bobby ryan, but rather sign that 2nd pairing defenseman to a sub 4 mill cap hit ala Grossman.

Boston La Chicago they all had great players with amazing cap hits on that team. That is the formula, cap circumvention was one way to get there but now that is gone and teams need to figure out the next way to get there. The problem is once you sign a player to an overinflated deal the chances of moving him are decreased and now you have weakened yourself in another aspect. That goes directly against the blueprint for success.

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04-04-2013, 10:08 AM
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Nice posts jtown.

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04-04-2013, 10:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
Teams like the Bruins, Kings, and Blackhawks , as well as vancouver, have showed how to win in this league.

Teams like San jose, Capitals, and Rangers have shown how not to have success.

Yes luck plays a role in it, but it is no coincidence that the past 3 cup winners have had 3rd lines that are a scoring threat, and a 3rd pairing that can play regular minutes. The blueprint is not have a dominant 1st line with a stud goalie, the blueprint is balance throughout the lineup and to have a diversity of skill in throughout the lineup. Mobile defenseman, Stay at home defenceman, Crease clearing defenseman, pp qb defenseman.....would be great if that was 1 player but that dman does not exist. Instead those skills need to be seen throughout your 6 dmen.

The blueprint is out there, teams just have to be disciplined enough to follow it, that means not trade for the prized winger like bobby ryan, but rather sign that 2nd pairing defenseman to a sub 4 mill cap hit ala Grossman.

Boston La Chicago they all had great players with amazing cap hits on that team. That is the formula, cap circumvention was one way to get there but now that is gone and teams need to figure out the next way to get there. The problem is once you sign a player to an overinflated deal the chances of moving him are decreased and now you have weakened yourself in another aspect. That goes directly against the blueprint for success.
You left one team out. Three guesses which one.

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04-04-2013, 10:47 AM
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JDinklage Morgoone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
I think a lot of people have a hard time dealing with the fact that Bryz will never be the goalie we want him to be because of how he is off the ice.
I agree. I like Bryz off the ice, he's a unique character, and I know he wants to win and is trying. He's just not been good, whether it's the defense, the system, him, whatever. He's not helping the Flyers win games right now.

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04-04-2013, 10:53 AM
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Jtown
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I agree. I like Bryz off the ice, he's a unique character, and I know he wants to win and is trying. He's just not been good, whether it's the defense, the system, him, whatever. He's not helping the Flyers win games right now.
I think teams, and goalies especially need to find a rhythm with one another. The most successful teams have some sort of stability with the back end of their team and that familiarity breeds confidence.

The flyers just need to find a way to win with bryz, and then play that style from in on out. Get in a good rhythm and keep it.

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04-04-2013, 10:57 AM
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That's all well and good in terms of what the ideal lineup looks like, but there is a lot more to it than that. I don't think anyone would argue that the team shouldn't look like that, but in practice it is much, much more difficult. If you strictly follow this model (which I don't think you are suggesting) you will be dealing with a lot of turnover of RFAs leaving or being traded before their big contracts kick in.

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04-04-2013, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
That's all well and good in terms of what the ideal lineup looks like, but there is a lot more to it than that. I don't think anyone would argue that the team shouldn't look like that, but in practice it is much, much more difficult. If you strictly follow this model (which I don't think you are suggesting) you will be dealing with a lot of turnover of RFAs leaving or being traded before their big contracts kick in.
I do that in my NHL 13 GM mode and it works just fine

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04-04-2013, 01:18 PM
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This is why the team's inability to bring up even a decent top 4 defense man or back up goalie is such a disappointment and problem. As it stands right now we have to pay free agent prices for all the top 4 defenseman and both goalies. Sure you can do it on the cheap but that also means lack of quality. I don't feel like going trough every roster right now, but I imagine at least 20-25 of the other teams have at least 1 top defenseman who is on an entry level deal or decent 2nd contract that they brought up in their system. I think this is a major failing on the scouting and management of the organization (and has been for at least a decade) and it's becoming more of an issue as we get further into the cap era.

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04-04-2013, 03:15 PM
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Jtown
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This is why the team's inability to bring up even a decent top 4 defense man or back up goalie is such a disappointment and problem. As it stands right now we have to pay free agent prices for all the top 4 defenseman and both goalies. Sure you can do it on the cheap but that also means lack of quality. I don't feel like going trough every roster right now, but I imagine at least 20-25 of the other teams have at least 1 top defenseman who is on an entry level deal or decent 2nd contract that they brought up in their system. I think this is a major failing on the scouting and management of the organization (and has been for at least a decade) and it's becoming more of an issue as we get further into the cap era.
It doesn't matter if you have defenders on an ELC as long as you have enough talent on your team that is on ELC then everything should be fine.

Right now we have many forwards on elc's and gus on d. That is fine. But you constantly need to refill the pipeline and keep pumping these guys out to replace the ones that that demand more money.

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04-04-2013, 04:01 PM
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The Flyers already have a #1 goalie, however it is the lack of a #1 defenseman that makes him look pedestrian. "Flyers hockey" without a #1 defenseman is a goalie's worst nightmare.

The Flyers would be in a really bad way without Bryzgalov in net this season.

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04-04-2013, 04:14 PM
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The Flyers already have a #1 goalie, however it is the lack of a #1 defenseman that makes him look pedestrian. "Flyers hockey" without a #1 defenseman is a goalie's worst nightmare.

The Flyers would be in a really bad way without Bryzgalov in net this season.
If this is serious...


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04-04-2013, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by xifentoozlerix View Post
The Flyers already have a #1 goalie, however it is the lack of a #1 defenseman that makes him look pedestrian. "Flyers hockey" without a #1 defenseman is a goalie's worst nightmare.

The Flyers would be in a really bad way without Bryzgalov in net this season.
Name me the number 1 dman on the rangers, vancouver, columbus, ottawa, edmonton, anaheim, Dallas and Florida...all teams mind you with goalie play much better than ours.

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04-04-2013, 04:48 PM
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Name me the number 1 dman on the rangers, vancouver, columbus, ottawa, edmonton, anaheim, Dallas and Florida...all teams mind you with goalie play much better than ours.
Just throwing it out there...

I think Girardi, Karlsson, and Hamhuis/Edler are pretty good.

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04-04-2013, 10:00 PM
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To me, this demonstrates is the need to have a constant influx of young talent that can produce at levels that exceed their cap hits. A young player can be under team control into their mid/late twenties and be paid well below market value for much of or possibly that entire period.

The Flyers don't have a #1 dman because haven't made the effort to draft & develop one. Ditto for goaltender. They've tried to resort overpaying on the free agent market to make up for that. Now they may very well have to trade futures to acquire one, but that only furthers the cycle of trading off inexpensive youth for expensive veterans.

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04-04-2013, 10:09 PM
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Teams like the Bruins, Kings, and Blackhawks , as well as vancouver, have showed how to win in this league.

Teams like San jose, Capitals, and Rangers have shown how not to have success.
Doesn't Vancouver belong more with the second group? They're capped out and Cup-less.

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04-04-2013, 11:11 PM
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It doesn't matter if you have defenders on an ELC as long as you have enough talent on your team that is on ELC then everything should be fine.

Right now we have many forwards on elc's and gus on d. That is fine. But you constantly need to refill the pipeline and keep pumping these guys out to replace the ones that that demand more money.
It does matter, but what ever. We do have forwards on ELCs but if you want to think not being able to have good defenseman/goalies on cheap contracts that's fine. Gus is not that good and has only been 'up' for half the games, and mostly was 3rd pairing so he doesn't really qualify.

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04-04-2013, 11:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xifentoozlerix View Post
The Flyers already have a #1 goalie, however it is the lack of a #1 defenseman that makes him look pedestrian. "Flyers hockey" without a #1 defenseman is a goalie's worst nightmare.

The Flyers would be in a really bad way without Bryzgalov in net this season.

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04-04-2013, 11:53 PM
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Are you another one of the people who can see that Leighton rode the D in 2010 but won't admit that terribad d will make a goalie look bad?

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