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2013 Offseason Goalie Market

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Old
04-04-2013, 02:26 PM
  #51
Djp
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
It's my opinion that Buffalo and St Louis are real wild card teams for Luongo. It's a stretch....but one goalie leaving (Miller) creates another opening. I don't believe Enroth has shown anything that should give a team confidence to have him as a starter......like NYI with Poulin/Nilson) my assumption is that every team needs one goalie they can bank on. Buffalo can give Hackett another year to mature, use Enroth as a backup again, and pick form the pool that's available this year if Miller leaves. You will notice that I had them signing Bryz....
Buffalo will not touch Luongo or Bryz with na 10 foot pole with their current contracts. If they were given buyouts and they were UFAs--buffalo would look into them as short term 3-4 yr max contract only.

Buffalo would like to have Hackett in the NHL next year . they have a WHL goalie in Makarov (sp) who is slated to play in the AHL next year. they want to give him games.

I see Buffalo going with Hacket + Enroth in a 50/50 competition for the starting goalie job.

Enroth could be dealt for a different goalie.

this is why I think they are interested in Bernier---they feel he has more upside (even though unproven) than enroth.

that is why i think there would be a deal where its Bernier for enroth + 1 or 2 of LS 2nd round picks Buffalo acquired.

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04-04-2013, 02:37 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
However, the 38-year-old has told the team, through his agent, Bill Zito, that he wants to play in the NHL next season and also has an interest in representing Team USA at the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, Russia, according to CSNNewEngland.com.


I don't doubt that he wants to play for team USA next year....but do they want him?

As it stands now(assuming no injury) Miller and Quick are 95% certain locks for 2 of the 3 goalie jobs.

1 goalie job will be open.


I think they leave that 3rd goalie position open and take whomever appears to be the best performing goalie out there during the first half of the season. age will be a facotr in the decision. The goalie likely selected would be looked at goalie #3 and thus start one game in the prelims (against the weakest opponent). this goalie also would be viewed as a favorite for a spot on 2018 team.

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04-04-2013, 02:39 PM
  #53
ginner classic
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I don't doubt that he wants to play for team USA next year....but do they want him?

As it stands now(assuming no injury) Miller and Quick are 95% certain locks for 2 of the 3 goalie jobs.

1 goalie job will be open.


I think they leave that 3rd goalie position open and take whomever appears to be the best performing goalie out there during the first half of the season. age will be a facotr in the decision. The goalie likely selected would be looked at goalie #3 and thus start one game in the prelims (against the weakest opponent). this goalie also would be viewed as a favorite for a spot on 2018 team.
Miller, Quick, Schneider and Anderson

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04-04-2013, 02:42 PM
  #54
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Buffalo will not touch Luongo or Bryz with na 10 foot pole with their current contracts. ...
This, and it follows for every team with decent prospects. Why put yourself in a version of the Luongo/Schneider mess in a year or two?

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04-04-2013, 02:44 PM
  #55
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I've been saying Bernier to NJ is a match made in heaven for 2 years now and I get blasted everytime

Also call me crazy but I can see Lou winning a cup with Philly. The team always without a clutch goalie, and the goalie always getting the playoff noose hung around his neck

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04-04-2013, 02:46 PM
  #56
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Wow great job.

I agree with you on Bernier ending up on the Devils, perfect fit but I could also see him going to Philly possibly.

I am wondering what the Kings are going to do for a back up to Quick next year. Jones and Berube could step up and in but I am not 100% certain that they are ready. Any thoughts? We will be working with a pretty night cap, not ultra tight but tight enough to where we can't overspend on our back up.

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04-04-2013, 02:51 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by officeglen View Post
This, and it follows for every team with decent prospects. Why put yourself in a version of the Luongo/Schneider mess in a year or two?
Yup. I think Buffalo will be looking (if they move Miller) just for a steady low-key veteran who can play maybe 50% of the season to help along Hackett. Not sure where the organization stands on Enroth. If they still have some hope for him, I could see them letting him and Hackett compete for starts, but I could also see him getting traded for that steady vet. I think they'd be looking to add young wingers, or maybe D, in a Miller deal.

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04-04-2013, 02:53 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Djp View Post
I don't doubt that he wants to play for team USA next year....but do they want him?

As it stands now(assuming no injury) Miller and Quick are 95% certain locks for 2 of the 3 goalie jobs.

1 goalie job will be open.


I think they leave that 3rd goalie position open and take whomever appears to be the best performing goalie out there during the first half of the season. age will be a facotr in the decision. The goalie likely selected would be looked at goalie #3 and thus start one game in the prelims (against the weakest opponent). this goalie also would be viewed as a favorite for a spot on 2018 team.
If you're TT, knowing that you'll probably be too old and out of the NHL by the 2016 games, this is your last chance.

No reason not to give it a try.

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04-04-2013, 02:56 PM
  #59
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So Edmonton is ok but Toronto is a wildcard? Ok then.

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04-04-2013, 03:00 PM
  #60
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So Edmonton is ok but Toronto is a wildcard? Ok then.
This season Dubnyk has been one of the best goalies how can you say they need another goalie?

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04-04-2013, 03:08 PM
  #61
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Detroit signs Tim Thomas

NYI signs Jimmy Howard

WPG signs Anton Khudobin

ANA trades Hiller to TOR
ANA signs Theodore or equivilant capable backup, allowing Fasth to show what he's got in Bridge years to Gibson, allowing them to possibly get good value for both Hiller and Fasth before Gibson potentially takes over

Just a few guesses

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04-04-2013, 03:18 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Danglefest View Post
Detroit signs Tim Thomas

NYI signs Jimmy Howard

WPG signs Anton Khudobin

ANA trades Hiller to TOR
ANA signs Theodore or equivilant capable backup, allowing Fasth to show what he's got in Bridge years to Gibson, allowing them to possibly get good value for both Hiller and Fasth before Gibson potentially takes over

Just a few guesses
Sorry why would Detroit sign a soon to be 39 year old Tim Thomas over a 29 year old Jimmy Howard, If Tim Thomas were 10 years younger maybe He's a Michigan Native that would fit well with Detroit If he were 10 years younder. Detroit will resign Howard he already has a deal for 6 years @ $30million that he's been offered, I dont see the Islanders offering Howard more money then Detroit can give him.

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04-04-2013, 03:31 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Danglefest View Post
Detroit signs Tim Thomas

NYI signs Jimmy Howard

WPG signs Anton Khudobin

ANA trades Hiller to TOR
ANA signs Theodore or equivilant capable backup, allowing Fasth to show what he's got in Bridge years to Gibson, allowing them to possibly get good value for both Hiller and Fasth before Gibson potentially takes over

Just a few guesses
Or TOR could go out and offer TT a contract and just let him play the 1A role behind Reimer.

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04-04-2013, 03:31 PM
  #64
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I don't see Winnipeg looking to acquire Schneider simply because of the price. His contract is reasonable at 4.0 M cap hit, and Pavelecs is 3.9 M cap hit. We're not keeping both however, and I doubt Vancouver has interest in Pavelec. A much larger trade is a possibility, but Chevy isn't a big trading guy.

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04-04-2013, 03:34 PM
  #65
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If chicago loses in the first round and its the goalies fault---look for a trade of Saad + 1st for Miller.


That's never happening

Saad wont be traded for a mid 30's upcoming UFA goalie

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04-04-2013, 03:35 PM
  #66
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If Luo does get bought out I could see Calgary signing him.

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04-04-2013, 03:40 PM
  #67
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There is a SMALL possibility the Sharks could trade Niemi near the draft. They have some great prospects and there was some speculation they were going to mini-rebuild this off-season. At this point though, I really doubt it. I think he's a Shark for the forseeable future.

Expect Greiss to be let go though, and Stalock/Setari to audition for a permanent backup role. More than likely Stalock will be the guy, and he has starter potential (as does Setari).

Sharks also have JP Anderson and Heemskirk. We have goalies coming out of our ears.

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04-04-2013, 04:45 PM
  #68
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This, and it follows for every team with decent prospects. Why put yourself in a version of the Luongo/Schneider mess in a year or two?
It's actually not a mess if you trade the youngster for a nice haul. It's a mess when you hand out a 12 year contract to the veteran and then try to trade that veteran. Schneider should have been traded prior to the last trade deadline.

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04-04-2013, 05:22 PM
  #69
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It's actually not a mess if you trade the youngster for a nice haul. It's a mess when you hand out a 12 year contract to the veteran and then try to trade that veteran. Schneider should have been traded prior to the last trade deadline.
You have to read the part I was quoting to get the context, which was "Buffalo will not touch Luongo...", so trading for Luongo is likely a mess, as I stated, and trading for Schneider is more viable as you noted in your post.

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04-04-2013, 05:30 PM
  #70
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Buffalo is not, nor will they ever be a frontrunner for Luongo.

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04-04-2013, 05:32 PM
  #71
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You have to read the part I was quoting to get the context, which was "Buffalo will not touch Luongo...", so trading for Luongo is likely a mess, as I stated, and trading for Schneider is more viable as you noted in your post.
If there was a greater than 1/10 of 1% chance someone would kick the tires on trading for Lou I included them on that list :-) A buffalo team that trades Miller fits that description. Slightly greater than 0% chance.

Schneider is a great fit in Buffalo if Miller is dealt.

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04-04-2013, 05:35 PM
  #72
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This season Dubnyk has been one of the best goalies how can you say they need another goalie?
My point was more on the fact that Reimer has been just as good, yet Toronto is a wildcard.

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04-04-2013, 05:39 PM
  #73
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My point was more on the fact that Reimer has been just as good, yet Toronto is a wildcard.
I personally am not a fan of Reimer so that is my bias. I think he has some massive flaws in his game. I like the kid and his battle level. He surely has the confidence and work ethic to improve. At the point for me Dubnyk has shown a lot more (beyond save percentage). I don't think either one will ever be a top 5 goalie in the NHL.

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04-07-2013, 09:50 AM
  #74
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I've been saying Bernier to NJ is a match made in heaven for 2 years now and I get blasted everytime

Also call me crazy but I can see Lou winning a cup with Philly. The team always without a clutch goalie, and the goalie always getting the playoff noose hung around his neck
If you watch Philly play Brz isn't the problem, he plays great and the team only scores 1 goal and that defense is one of the worst in the NHL plain and simple.

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04-07-2013, 09:59 PM
  #75
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There are a lot of people talking about a goalie glut this offseason and I wanted to throw the following Canuck-centric analysis out there.....I try to be as unbviased as I can be.

Teams that are set in goal through the start of next season assuming no management changes or surprises in the playoffs. This list teams nobody really debates if they have a legit starter for next season. I assume Miller is going to be traded. Like all the other keepers on my list.....his availability adds a goalie on the market AND adds a buyer.


Set for next year (starters)
  • Pittsburgh
  • Boston
  • Ottawa
  • NYR
  • Carolina
  • Montreal
  • San Jose
  • Chicago
  • Anaheim
  • LA
  • Vancouver
  • Nashville
  • Columbus
  • Dallas
  • Colorado
  • Edmonton

Wildcards Likely Set for Next Year
  • St Louis*
  • Toronto*
  • Tampa*
  • Winnipeg*


Starters/Elite Prospects Potentially Available Next Year:
  • Luongo/Schneider (Trade)
  • Miller (Trade)
  • Smith (UFA)
  • Backstrom (UFA)
  • Halak (Trade)
  • Hiller (Trade)
  • Bernier (Trade)
  • Bryzgalov (UFA*)
  • Khudobin (UFA)
  • Howard (UFA)
Aging Veterans that Could Start
  • Nabokov
  • Kipper
Players Potentially Done
  • Khabby
  • Kipper
  • Brodeur
  • Bryzgalov
  • Theodore
  • Hedberg
  • Biron
  • Harding
Youngsters that may not be ready to start
  • Allen
  • Holtby
  • Markstrom
  • Bernier
Goalies that are either not ready or will never be ready for the starting job
  • Nilson/Poulin - Backups or not ready
  • Hackett - Not ready. Good potential.
  • Lehner - One more year as a backup. All world talent.
  • Campbell - Not ready
  • Visentin - Not ready
  • Elliott - Not good enough
  • Subban - Years away
Potentially Open Starting Seats
  • Washington
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • Florida
  • New Jersey
  • Calgary
  • Minnesota
  • Phoenix
  • Toronto
  • Detroit
  • St Louis
Past Openings Currently Filled
  • Chicago - Unless there is a first round meltdown, they are sorted for now
  • San Jose - Niemi has been the MVP with Thornton
  • Columbus - Bob's doing great
How it could play out...my SWAG


Washington - I think Holtby can keep it together. No change
NYI - Miller. They have the assets to acquire him and the cap space. They could cheap out and go with Nabby another year, but the players in the system are not worthy of missing out on a big fish. Miller wants to go west but LA/SJ/ANA are all sorted in net. Pheonix won't be able to pay the cap cost.
Philly - Schneider/Luongo. Bryz is a buyout.
Buffalo - Bryzgalov. If they trade Miller, I think they get left without a seat just like Calgary below. Sign a vet and try out the youth.
Florida - Markstrom. The future is now. He is ready. Maybe bring back Theodore for one more year and ditch Clemmenson. Markstrom is NHL ready. They need a reliable veteran backup, not an aging star starter. Tallon would be a fool to trade for Lou.
New Jersey - Bernier. One year to learn from Brodeur. Perfect fit IMO. They have a few assets that LA would want to make a deal.
Calgary - Khudobin. I think they'll roll the dice on a cheaper option. I expect they will lose the bidding war with NJ on Bernier simply due to divisional rivalry. Bryzgalov is another possibility.
Minnesota - Backstrom. Deserves another contract with Minny. Better the devil you know for both parties.
Phoenix - Smith This situation could get quite strange. In my books, Smith is a product of a system, and is very overrated. He has not played that well this season and has a pretty high opinion of his worth. Phoenix is not going to break the bank to sign him but don't have a lot of options. They could make a play for Khudobin or even try a deal with Anaheim for Hiller...but in the end I think Smith will realize he has as good a thing going as he is ever going to have.
Toronto - Kipper. Fatal half measures yet again. If Kipper retires and Reimer/Scrivens show weakness, I am not sure how patient that fan base is going to be. Nonis may not have a lot of pressure, but that Reimer goalie of the future thing has been sold for three years.
Detroit - Howard re-signs, they have no trade fodder and better the devil you know
St Louis - Halak/Allen. I think the improved D will keep this tandem together and cash constraints as well. If Halak fails and Allen is clearly not ready, they will be players this summer for sure.
Tampa Bay - Bishop/Lindback Stevie will live in denial to start the year at least. One of these guys may emerge as a legit starter. Both required overpayment to acquire and both have serious question marks.


Remaining Goalies and Wildcards

Hiller starts year in Anaheim. Poor numbers and Fasth' relative inexperience means the return of the two headed monster next year IMO. Hiller will be available later in the year if Fasth remains as good as he is now. They can afford to be patient with their decisions. If Hiller was on the market it would balance things out between spaces available and goalies avilable. If he stays in Anaheim to start next season there is one more spot available than starters to fill it.

Winnipeg is a wild card in that Schneider's availability and the relations between the teams could make a deal possible. I have to think they are not loving the numbers that Pavalec has put up even though he should get better than he is.

Pittsburgh could enter the market if Fleury can't get it done this year. I personally think Fleury redeems himself.



Conclusion

I fail to see how anyone thinks there is a goalie glut this offseason. While I assume that Philly is a certainty to buy out Bryz and that Miller is on the market, if any one of Washington, Tampa, Toronto, or St Louis experience a stumble there is goign to be real demand for goalies and a shortage of supply. If Kipper retires, or Nabby or Bryz return to Russia maybe moreso. Hiller can fill one opening, and maybe Nabby is an option for another year, but what I see is sufficient demand to find a home for Lou and a potential bidding war for Schneider if he is made available. There will also be a bidding war for Bernier. Miller will attract bids from at least four teams IMO.


Bidders on Schneider if available
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • New Jersey
  • NYI
  • Minnesota
  • phoenix
  • TB *
  • Winnipeg*
Serious Bernier bidding should be between
  • Calgary
  • New Jersey
  • Phoenix
  • NYI
with New Jersey edging the others out on geography.



Candidates for Luongo
  • Toronto
  • New Jersey
  • Philly
  • Buffalo
  • St Louis *
  • Vancouver *
Candidates for Miller
  • NYI
  • Philly
  • Toronto
  • Phoenix
  • St Louis *
Why wouldn't the Flyers go after Bernier, Philly and LA have a good trading history plus Bernier wants to be a starter not a backup to Brodeur. With the Mason trade, the Flyers can buyout Bryzgalov and trade for Bernier so he could win the starting job and grow with the young group of players in Philly. He'd have more of a chance to be a starter with Philly then New Jersey.

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