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NYI at Caps. 7PM. 4.4.2013: Playoffs?!

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04-05-2013, 09:38 AM
  #501
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
Huh?

We outchanced them.

We outhit them.

We won the faceoff battle.

We won the game.

What would it take to not make them look "pretty bad" in your eyes?

That game should have been 4 or 5 to 0 until the Isles made their surge. Nabakov was excellent and Backstrom/Ovy/MJ missed golden opportunities.
We outchanced them according to the graphic provided by the home feed, which I don't buy at all.

Outhitting often indicates that the other team controlled the puck more than you did.

The faceoff battle has almost nothing to do with the quality of the team or the play.

Yep, we won the game due to Holtby's outstanding play.

To make them not look pretty bad, they'd have to do something to limit the opposing shots, not get repeatedly hemmed in the defensive zone, pass the puck much more accurately, and not turn the puck over twice as much as the opposition.

Ignoring shot differential is pretty silly. It's one of the better basic stat indicators of a team's quality.

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04-05-2013, 09:38 AM
  #502
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
You keep saying this. What does Nabby have to do with our defense? We were out-shot by 14.
The caps Imo had more scoring chances. Islanders had more shots on goal but they were of the low probability variety. Caps had more quality chances. What good is shot on goal if it has no chance of going in?

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04-05-2013, 09:40 AM
  #503
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Had the Isles on their heels for 1st 2 periods

Erat looked good. Several fine passes in both O-zone and D-zone. Good cycle game, stronger along the boards than I anticipated, and immediately increases the team's overall hockey IQ and two-way play. Thought it was a good idea to have him with Ovie in OT.

We went into a more passive, D-first style in the last 10 minutes of the game. We're not very good at that right now. Our lockdown mode is leaky: zone entries for Isles were too easy, clears from our zone were too hard -- seems like if we go passive and don't stretch the opponent's D we struggle, perhaps because it becomes more of a one-on-one puck battle game, and we still need a lot of work there. But last year's playoffs show we have the ability to up our game in that department - we'd better start doing so now since there will be more games like last night going forward.

Oh and Tavares scared me every time he was on the ice.

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04-05-2013, 09:41 AM
  #504
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There's the timeline of shots+missed shots. Caps actually did hold their own until ~halfway through the 3rd, although the Isles really dominated in spots too (the start of the second for example).

Granted, you expect the team that's trailing to outshoot/out-attempt the team with the lead. Game got out of hand in the 3rd though.

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04-05-2013, 09:44 AM
  #505
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Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
At one point they showed a stat that we were outchancing them 15-9 despite being heavily outshot. We doubled them up in hits too.

They hardly had any sustained zone time until with about 10 minutes left in the game.
This. Shots mean nothing. A dump in from the red line on goal counts as a shot. An unscreened wrister from the blue line counts as a shot. Scoring chances is what matters. I don't think it's any coincidence that we've been outshot in 7 out of or last 8 games yet have gone 6-1-1. Oates' system seems predicated on creating chances, not shots. Didn't we shoot 10-44 at one point? As long as Holtby stops the shots he's supposed to stop, the system looks good. Last night he was fantastic, but so was Habby. NBTW, I found it disappointing that you pointed out the Isles could have had 5 or 6 yet failed to mention the same thing for the Caps. We barely missed on the Ovie to Backstrom pass, MoJo had a one-on-one with the goalie, and Habby made 5 or 6 highlight reel saves. I thought the Hillen shot was going in 100%; an incredible save. Goes both ways. Could have been 1-1 as it was, 5-5, or if one goalie didn't bring his 'A' game 5-1 in someone's direction. We got 2 points from a team that's had our number the past two seasons, lighten up.

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04-05-2013, 09:52 AM
  #506
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First 11 games: 2-8-1 5 Points
Last 26 games: 16-9-1 33 Points

If you subtract the first 11 games (yes we did have a new coach with a different system) and none of our D played during the lockout this team actually has a good record. multiplying the point average of the last 26 games times 37 games we would have 47 points 4th highest in the East 6th highest in the league.

Somebody must be doing something right. Yes we benefit from the crapy teams in our division.

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04-05-2013, 09:59 AM
  #507
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
And there you go, Stewie G.
I said I didn't say anyone thought our defense played great for a full 60. I see that as different than saying that they like the D. Just because it's different than your take, doesn't mean it's wrong (or right for that matter).

Someone can like the current defensive personnel but not feel like they played a great game from start to finish. It's not like a great defensive lineup plays great every night, just like how a bad defense can't play a solid game from time to time.

We get it. You don't like them. They're not consistent. They're missing a bona fide top 4 LD after Alzner. Each and every one of them have their flaws, but no team is going to have a flawless top 6 that fits perfectly into the top pair, middle pair, bottom pair roles. I'm not sold on them either, but that doesn't mean I think it's a foregone conclusion that they're going to sink the ship and I'm not going to belittle those who like them more than I do.

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04-05-2013, 10:00 AM
  #508
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It's pretty simple. Before the road trip they realized it was do or die, and the stars on the team got going, as did the budding-star of a goalie we have.

But the stars are the ones putting the pucks in the net, and producing like they did years ago when the team was feared by all for its high-flying offense.

In other words, the team is performing as it was built to. You pay these guys what you pay them because you expect them to carry the team. Otherwise, everyone would get the same salary.

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04-05-2013, 10:01 AM
  #509
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There were a few positives from the defense IMO. The first was engaged Carlson showed up. It's clear to me (and probably everyone else here), that Carlson has major bouts of 'itis throughout the regular season, but it's also apparent that he has a switch he can flip when he's ready to ratchet up his play. He easily matched the speed of any of the Islander forwards (an extremely speedy lot), he was physical, he carried the puck, he made crisp passes for the most part etc. Aside from the failure to clear the zone once in the third, I thought that he was terrific and he reminded me of the kid that we thought we were getting after his year with the Knights. I expect Carlson to be beastly in the playoffs again.

Also, as long as Schultz sits, this is the best skating defense we've had in some time. I thought that we skated with the Pens a few weeks back, and for the most part I thought we did a solid job with the Islanders speed last night. We were passive down the stretch, but I was pretty impressed with the foot-quickness of this bunch and I think that actually gives us a fighting chance to make a dent in the playoffs despite the lousy year in the aggregate thus far, especially if Ovie and Backstrom continue playing the way that they have been.

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04-05-2013, 10:03 AM
  #510
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55 should not see action the rest of the year. No trade deadline to showcase for, and no room for "growing pains" or learning curves.

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04-05-2013, 10:03 AM
  #511
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Our defense is garbage. It has been bad for a while, and I've been saying it for a while. But it's certainly not as good as it's been in fifteen years, or whatever BobRouse was saying. Hell, it's not even as good as the unit we had last year. I'd take functional a Hamrlik over Hillen any day of the week, and Hunter's system emphasized Schultz's strengths and masked the mobility concerns with Schultz, Hamrlik, and Erskine. Even as much as we hate Wideman, he could at least get the puck out of the defensive zone.

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04-05-2013, 10:05 AM
  #512
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Lose game. People complain.
Win game. People complain.
3rd in southeast. People complain.

You guys need to get a grip. So what if we won ugly? I rather win ugly then lose looking good.

"Fans" at their best

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04-05-2013, 10:06 AM
  #513
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For all the crap I've said and thought about Hillen (and there's been plenty), I will give him this: he seemed to be handling Tavares beautifully all night.

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04-05-2013, 10:08 AM
  #514
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What is draft position based on: standings seeding or playoff seeding? (assuming we do not win a round).

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04-05-2013, 10:09 AM
  #515
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G3 LesPaul View Post
Lose game. People complain.
Win game. People complain.
3rd in southeast. People complain.

You guys need to get a grip. So what if we won ugly? I rather win ugly then lose looking good.

"Fans" at their best
I'm sorry, but have you been paying attention to this franchise for the last, oh, almost 40 years?

You can't think of ANY reason why Caps fans would be skeptical and guarded?

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04-05-2013, 10:12 AM
  #516
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
For all the crap I've said and thought about Hillen (and there's been plenty), I will give him this: he seemed to be handling Tavares beautifully all night.
I almost never watch the post game show but I was too lazy to change the channel last night, and that was Alan May's biggest point. He likely wouldn't fare nearly as well against bigger forwards, but I thought he did well against #91.

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04-05-2013, 10:25 AM
  #517
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
Our defense is garbage. It has been bad for a while, and I've been saying it for a while. But it's certainly not as good as it's been in fifteen years, or whatever BobRouse was saying. Hell, it's not even as good as the unit we had last year. I'd take functional a Hamrlik over Hillen any day of the week, and Hunter's system emphasized Schultz's strengths and masked the mobility concerns with Schultz, Hamrlik, and Erskine. Even as much as we hate Wideman, he could at least get the puck out of the defensive zone.
WAIT! WHAT?

That's BS, pure BS. As a Flame fan described Wideman earlier this season, he plays as if the puck is a hand grenade and that's the way he played for us last season. Whether the stats support me or not, I'd say he turned the puck over more in our d-zone last season then any other defenseman. Wideman was one dimensional to me, he had a heck of a shot from the blue line, good for the PPs, but that was it.

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04-05-2013, 10:32 AM
  #518
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Originally Posted by Ref9 View Post
WAIT! WHAT?

That's BS, pure BS. As a Flame fan described Wideman earlier this season, he plays as if the puck is a hand grenade and that's the way he played for us last season. Whether the stats support me or not, I'd say he turned the puck over more in our d-zone last season then any other defenseman. Wideman was one dimensional to me, he had a heck of a shot from the blue line, good for the PPs, but that was it.
I usually agree with Myst's assessments, but I'm with you on this one. Particularly in the playoffs, Wideman fumbled pucks, put his partners in bad positions to make plays, and made poor passes/chips trying to clear the zone. Those types of plays generally resulted in extended shifts in the defensive zone.

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04-05-2013, 10:35 AM
  #519
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I like what I'm seeing and at the right time. Sorry, I've been down on GM for a while, and I wasn't against tanking if things had gotten just a little more bleak than they were, but the only issue with this team is a very young D needing to sure things up. I don't know if it's a coaching problem or what but the talent is here. My only complaint (now that everyone is healthy) is Orlov sitting. Maybe he's hurt. If not, benching him for any of the Hillen/Kund/Poti/Sarge mess is beyond brain dead. Fixing the awful PK would do a great deal of good.


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04-05-2013, 10:36 AM
  #520
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Im convinced some of you never watch other games the caps are not involved in. Or you have been absolutly spoiled watching Boudreau and the young gun era.
No, I just like crisp fundamentally strong hockey. The Caps are one of the more flat teams around the league and their success is largely predicated on the opposition having shakier team play.

My chief concerns would be the overall make-up of the D and their PK. The PK to this point is the worst performing group since the '04-05 lockout. Think about those other teams and other personnel. They got the job done last night but it's just bad generally. If there's one area where gamer Carlson is needed it's there because he's been the worst at it along with Backstrom.

Re: Draft pick placement the division "winners" are seeded after everyone else, ordered by standings points and then 27-30 go to the CF/SCF teams so they're likely looking at a pick in the area of 21-25 as SE champ.


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04-05-2013, 10:38 AM
  #521
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
You keep saying this. What does Nabby have to do with our defense? We were out-shot by 14.
The caps Imo had more scoring chances. Islanders had more shots on goal but they were of the low probability variety. Caps had more quality chances. What good is shot on goal if it has no chance of going in?

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04-05-2013, 10:49 AM
  #522
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Us Caps fans should know about shots on goals better than any other fans.

The Montreal Series.

And I remember people here. Most of you were arguing how our insane amount of shots on goal didn't mean much because they were perimeter shots.

Now I see people have managed to flip flop about shots on goals.

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04-05-2013, 10:50 AM
  #523
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They didn't need a better D during the rebuild, so I wouldn't understand any complaints there. IMO, it really wouldn't have been valid to complain about the D until after the 2007-08 season. Up to that point, they needed to bed the young guys in.

Both the 2008-09 and 2009-10 defenses performed better than this one. I think the 2009-10 group was the better of the two. Good Poti was, all-around, on a level with Alzner this season. Dominant Green was better than this season's Green and Carlson combined. Non-negative Schultz was as good as anything we've had at the 2LD this year since Erskine's hot streak (which has been over for at least a dozen games now). Corvo was as good as this year's Carlson. And there's not much of a difference between the bottom pairing mish-mashes.

On Erskine, he had a good 10-15 games stretch, but has regressed back into his normal form since then. His snarl (which actually isn't applied all that much in the course of normal play) is causing him to be overrated. He's a decent #6, who's not a good match up, at all, for fast teams. He hasn't been 'awesome' for a while now. Should be a 14-15 minute/game defenseman, not 18-19.

Oleksy, as Erksine, should be a 14-15 minute/game guy. He's had some issues with his coverages, and gets overpowered more than his grit would indicate he should. Limiting his ice time would limit these occurrences. I know people like to point to Engellend as a comparable/example of why he can stick. Engelland gets under 14 minutes of ice time per game. That's why he sticks. Same should be applied to Oleksy.

Hillen is so bad. He skates well, but doesn't apply that skating ability into anything positive. No better than Sloan at this point.

Orlov and Kundratek aren't even on the team.
Well I'm not overly enamored with our current d-corps, but I thought Carlson played one of his better games of the season last night. Green always has been high risk high return, but he's looked real good the last few games with the puck on his stick. Thought Olesky is starting to show some of his flaws, last night he moved to defend an Islander who was already being defended by Erskine in front of the Caps goal and in so doing left his man wide open in the circle. I didn't realize that Olesky had played at Bridgeport for the Isles last year so perhaps they know his achilles heel, it seems Kundratek has the same problem when he faces the Rangers, those have been some of his worst games.

Just you mentioning Joe Corvo and Myst mentioning Dennis Wideman puzzles me. Yes our defense is not the best but to make reference to those two is just crazy talk. In Corvo's brief time here I thought he played horribly. I think Boston fans will agree regarding his performance with them as well and probably Canes fans would say the same this season. If ever the statement of addition by subtraction was made true, I think it applies to the likes of Corvo and Wideman no longer being in a Caps sweater. I think the Caps defense got better the day after each of those players left the team.

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04-05-2013, 10:52 AM
  #524
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No, I just like crisp fundamentally strong hockey. The Caps are one of the more flat teams around the league and their success is largely predicated on the opposition having shakier team play.
This is the first year where we have a coach that is actually focusing on the fundamentals. They still make a boat load of mistakes, but its been better than years past.

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04-05-2013, 10:54 AM
  #525
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Originally Posted by tycoonheart View Post
Us Caps fans should know about shots on goals better than any other fans.

The Montreal Series.

And I remember people here. Most of you were arguing how our insane amount of shots on goal didn't mean much because they were perimeter shots.

Now I see people have managed to flip flop about shots on goals.
SOG are right up there with +/- as being a flawed statistic for indicating a team's performance or a player's performance.

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