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Greg Sherman & Co - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM (Part II)

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04-05-2013, 10:36 AM
  #276
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Originally Posted by shadow1 View Post
Now imagine if John Davidson became President of the Colorado Avalanche and had those "cornerstones" to build around.

The young talent of the Avalanche is undeniable. But surrounded by underachieving veterans with long term contracts, the club is stuck in mediocrity.
Name 1 underachieving veteran on this team with a long term contract other than Davey Jones.

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04-05-2013, 11:24 AM
  #277
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Name 1 underachieving veteran on this team with a long term contract other than Davey Jones.
Erik Johnson.

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04-05-2013, 11:24 AM
  #278
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Erik Johnson.


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Originally Posted by iceberg View Post
It's hard to get too excited when you post basically the same line-up that is struggling to win games this season.
That team has ROR from the start, downie back, full years from EJ and Landy, a full season of Barrie and a real coach not feeding ROB, Zanon and Hunwick 20+ minutes a night, that makes it a radically different team.

And **** it's not like this year's team was that different from last year's near playoff squad. Adding Zanon and PAP were the only big changes.


Last edited by Frenchy: 04-05-2013 at 03:07 PM.
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04-05-2013, 11:35 AM
  #279
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Erik Johnson.
Even if EJ never gets better he's wroth every penny of that $3.75M deal.

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04-05-2013, 11:49 AM
  #280
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When someone disagrees with your positive outlook, does it have to equate to 'whining'? I've been told many times that I'm kind of negative in my postings, and I don't disagree with that. But that's not whining. That's analysis.

This Summer, I posted in here (after Sherman's FA signings) that I felt the Avs had the worst defensive corps in the Western Conference. I was told then that I was wrong, that I was negative, that it would be OK, etc. And I was told that Columbus had a worse D lineup (they don't), that Anaheim had a worse D lineup (they most absolutely don't), that Dallas had a worse D lineup (they don't either, but that turned out to be at least arguable), etc. And what has happened? The Avs have the worst D corps in the WC. That wasn't whining. That was me looking at Sherman's defensive signings and saying "Oh s**t...", and predicting something that, while perhaps not positive in nature, turned out to be wholly true. Yet, I'm still told that I'm negative, the cup is half empty, etc. What's a HFBoards poster to do?

The Avs are dead last in the league. Again. Tanking at the end of the season. Again. Often playing awful hockey. Again. These are facts. This isn't whining.



True statement. For myself, at the beginning of this process, I looked at the complete rebuild time to be a quality playoff team to be 5 years. Not Cup-contending, but simply a quality playoff team. That is almost certainly not going to happen, so I'm stretching the timeframe to 7 years. But to your point, I certainly don't want to see the Avs do what Toronto has done for decades now - pick up any and every shiny object FA at the expense of building through the draft, being patient with young players, etc., and thus finishing 8-12th place every year.

So your last point is well taken. I confess I find patience in the midst of this process to be challenging.
I for one don't take your or anyone else's pessimism as whining. I can see that for some of us it can be hard to take after a while just like our positive attitude could be hard to stomach sometimes and taken as being "homers". It take both kinds in a forum to make things interesting.

As for the bold comment, I can see why you have doubts in making the playoffs within 5 years of the start of the rebuild. However we are now completing year 4 so I am still confident that by adding a couple of very good pieces along with getting Downie back AND getting a competent coach, we can be a playoff team next year (year 5).

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04-05-2013, 11:50 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Foppa2118 View Post
Even if EJ never gets better he's wroth every penny of that $3.75M deal.
Oh, no question. I have no issue with his contract.

He's underachieving though.

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04-05-2013, 11:52 AM
  #282
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Let me ask you a question. If you look at every player on the Avs roster, and look at only how far each is playing from his highest potential, which player(s) top the list?


EJ is certainly hell and gone better than Matt Hunwick, but I'd put forth the notion that Hunwick is playing closer to his highest potential, than EJ is playing to his.

In fact, looking at the whole team, I believe EJ tops that list (though Jones is giving him a run for his money). To me, that's underachieving.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-05-2013 at 12:12 PM.
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04-05-2013, 11:58 AM
  #283
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And **** it's not like this year's team was that different from last year's near playoff squad.
Near playoff squad? 11th in the WC?

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04-05-2013, 12:08 PM
  #284
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I for one don't take your or anyone else's pessimism as whining. I can see that for some of us it can be hard to take after a while just like our positive attitude could be hard to stomach sometimes and taken as being "homers". It take both kinds in a forum to make things interesting.

As for the bold comment, I can see why you have doubts in making the playoffs within 5 years of the start of the rebuild. However we are now completing year 4 so I am still confident that by adding a couple of very good pieces along with getting Downie back AND getting a competent coach, we can be a playoff team next year (year 5).
For the record, I'm not down on the entire roster. There are pieces in there that I definitely like a lot.

But as for next season:

I don't see how the Avs can improve the defense next year, short of putting Barrie (who so obviously deserves a regular roster spot, it makes me want to smack my head against my garage door) in there. There are a few reasons why. One, I don't see the Avs exiling Hunwick and/or Zanon to the AHL or buying them out, because then they'd be paying for nothing, and I don't see them doing that, particularly coming off a low standings finish. Two, the Avs are $9M or so under next season's reduced Cap, and really good FAs tend to sign long term contracts (at least 4 years). And while the Avs could afford that next season, the season after that, the Avs are going to have to pony up big contract money to 6 *RFA* players, let alone their UFAs. The Avs payroll is going to rise big-time after next season (those 6 RFAs will likely cost the Avs $20-25M per season), and I don't think they'll sign costly FAs this Summer for this reason. Three, I think they'll let Sacco finish out his contract next season, and he's never been able to teach the team to, or put in the system to, play defense.

I think this team will score lots of goals though, which should be entertaining. And Varlamov will steal some games. Will those two things be enough to get them into the playoffs? it's too early to tell without seeing exactly what Sherman does in the offseason, but my inclination is to believe that it won't be enough. Enough to get off the WC floor? Yes. Enough to slip into 6th-8th spot? I doubt it.

I'm looking at the year after.

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04-05-2013, 12:25 PM
  #285
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Near playoff squad? 11th in the WC?
And they only fell out of the hunt with a losing streak in the last week of the season.

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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Let me ask you a question. If you look at every player on the Avs roster, and look at only how far each is playing from his highest potential, which player(s) top the list?


EJ is certainly hell and gone better than Matt Hunwick, but I'd put forth the notion that Hunwick is playing closer to his highest potential, than EJ is playing to his.

In fact, looking at the whole team, I believe EJ tops that list (though Jones is giving him a run for his money). To me, that's underachieving.
That doesn't mean he's underachieving. He does well given the situation he's put in, and his only real issue has been getting his shot on net. Can he do so much more? Yes, but for that to happen he needs a real partner that he won't be worried about cleaning up after all the time, and a real coach, unless he just keeps tuning Sacco out, that would work to.

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04-05-2013, 12:28 PM
  #286
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I think we'll move one Hunwick or Zanon during camp, once a new coach has gotten to check the kids out and other teams have picked up some knocks and want a 1 year depth defensemen, they'll be absolutely tradeable. Plus I think Greg from accounting may make another trade or shrewd FA signing if we don't end up landing Jones.

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04-05-2013, 12:43 PM
  #287
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
For the record, I'm not down on the entire roster. There are pieces in there that I definitely like a lot.

But as for next season:

I don't see how the Avs can improve the defense next year, short of putting Barrie (who so obviously deserves a regular roster spot, it makes me want to smack my head against my garage door) in there. There are a few reasons why. One, I don't see the Avs exiling Hunwick and/or Zanon to the AHL or buying them out, because then they'd be paying for nothing, and I don't see them doing that, particularly coming off a low standings finish. Two, the Avs are $9M or so under next season's reduced Cap, and really good FAs tend to sign long term contracts (at least 4 years). And while the Avs could afford that next season, the season after that, the Avs are going to have to pony up big contract money to 6 *RFA* players, let alone their UFAs. The Avs payroll is going to rise big-time after next season (those 6 RFAs will likely cost the Avs $20-25M per season), and I don't think they'll sign costly FAs this Summer for this reason. Three, I think they'll let Sacco finish out his contract next season, and he's never been able to teach the team to, or put in the system to, play defense.

I think this team will score lots of goals though, which should be entertaining. And Varlamov will steal some games. Will those two things be enough to get them into the playoffs? it's too early to tell without seeing exactly what Sherman does in the offseason, but my inclination is to believe that it won't be enough. Enough to get off the WC floor? Yes. Enough to slip into 6th-8th spot? I doubt it.

I'm looking at the year after.
Very good points. I was very concerned when they sign SOB/Hunwick/Zanon to those terms and Sacco having another year on his contract concerns me a lot too considering how the Avs manage their budget. However I am still hopeful that they can find that top-pairing dman which would push down the other guys to their respective position in the lineup. It's amazing sometimes what adding one player to the group accomplishes. Same goes with a coach. Look at TOR. They have pretty well the same group as when Burke was in charge and Carlyle takes over and look at them now.

I still remain positive until training camp then I'll re-evaluate.

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04-05-2013, 12:43 PM
  #288
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Oh, no question. I have no issue with his contract.

He's underachieving though.
He most definitely is. My question would be if he was playing 25 minutes a game the way he is playing right now, would he still seem like he is underachieving as much? I feel like his low ice time is compounding the issue of how average his season has been. If every game had been like his two recent 24 minute games, I think people would be a lot more high on him going forward.

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04-05-2013, 01:35 PM
  #289
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That doesn't mean he's underachieving.
Performing below potential/expectations does not equate to underachieving?

It's the very definition of the word. Literally.

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04-05-2013, 01:45 PM
  #290
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Name 1 underachieving veteran on this team with a long term contract other than Davey Jones.
Shane O'Brien.

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04-05-2013, 01:46 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Oh, no question. I have no issue with his contract.

He's underachieving though.
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Performing below potential/expectations does not equate to underachieving?

It's the very definition of the word. Literally.
The original idea though was that the young core was surrounded with underachievers with long term contracts, implying the contracts would leave them stuck in mediocrity.

EJ's contract won't hurt the team, and him being on the team won't leave them stuck in mediocrity. The only one that could hurt the team at this point is Jones.

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Now imagine if John Davidson became President of the Colorado Avalanche and had those "cornerstones" to build around.

The young talent of the Avalanche is undeniable. But surrounded by underachieving veterans with long term contracts, the club is stuck in mediocrity.

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04-05-2013, 01:48 PM
  #292
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Performing below potential/expectations does not equate to underachieving?

It's the very definition of the word. Literally.
Your view of his performance. Your view of his potential. Your expectations.

It's not like your views of EJ are universal. They're on the far end of the bell curve.

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04-05-2013, 02:08 PM
  #293
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No man, ABasin is definitely right on Erik Johnson.

I know people don't want to hear it but...he's just...not all that great. He's an alright number two or a good number three. He is a huge underachiever, and pretty easily the biggest one on the team.

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04-05-2013, 02:10 PM
  #294
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No man, ABasin is definitely right on Erik Johnson.

I know people don't want to hear it but...he's just...not all that great. He's an alright number two or a good number three. He is a huge underachiever, and pretty easily the biggest one on the team.
So what if his potential is really a #2? Isn't that a more realistic explanation than him, according to you guys, underachieving for 24 months straight?

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04-05-2013, 02:13 PM
  #295
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Performing below potential/expectations does not equate to underachieving?

It's the very definition of the word. Literally.
That's two different things, IMO.

Performing below potential would be underachieving.

Performing below expectations isn't necessarily underachieving. It could be that people had their expectations set too high.

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04-05-2013, 02:15 PM
  #296
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So what if his potential is really a #2? Isn't that a more realistic explanation than him, according to you guys, underachieving for 24 months straight?
Not really, lots of players underachieve their physical talent.

Even if his potential is as a number two it's because he doesn't think the game well enough, not that he is physically limited. That still counts as underachieving, because he is obviously much more talented than just being a number two would indicate.

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04-05-2013, 02:18 PM
  #297
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That's two different things, IMO.

Performing below potential would be underachieving.

Performing below expectations isn't necessarily underachieving. It could be that people had their expectations set too high.
But what is "potential"?? Isn't it too abstract??

When someone says X player has potential to be an 80 point producer, isn't it the same as expecting said player to be an 80 point player?

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04-05-2013, 02:23 PM
  #298
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No man, ABasin is definitely right on Erik Johnson.

I know people don't want to hear it but...he's just...not all that great. He's an alright number two or a good number three. He is a huge underachiever, and pretty easily the biggest one on the team.
That wasn't what was being discussed at that point. It was him being an example of an underachieving veteran with a long term contract that would hold this team in mediocrity.

Neither EJ or his long term contract will keep the team from building around him.

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04-05-2013, 02:28 PM
  #299
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Not really, lots of players underachieve their physical talent.

Even if his potential is as a number two it's because he doesn't think the game well enough, not that he is physically limited. That still counts as underachieving, because he is obviously much more talented than just being a number two would indicate.
Thinking the game at a high level/being able to consistently perform is as important as being physically gifted.

When a guy has been in the league for five+ years and established himself as a #2 that has a handful of amazing games and a handful of totally disastrous games in a year, but most of the time is a #2, that's really what his potential is.

You're not going to get more than that handful of amazing games out of him. That's not his potential. That's his peak performance tricking you. He doesn't have the consistency to play at that level. It's unfair to be disappointed when he doesn't.

Think of him as a Bouwmeester/Jack Johnson class of player instead of a Doughty/Pietrangelo (even if he has sucked a bit this year too). That's what he always was. That's what we traded for. It may not be what you think he should be. It may not be what you thought we paid for. But that's what he is.

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04-05-2013, 02:30 PM
  #300
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But what is "potential"?? Isn't it too abstract??

When someone says X player has potential to be an 80 point producer, isn't it the same as expecting said player to be an 80 point player?
I don't think so.

In your example, I'd expect player X to score less than 80 points.

He would top out at 80, if everything went right.


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