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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk II

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Old
04-05-2013, 05:36 PM
  #51
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Trying to predict who might fall is fairly hard to do. I'll put the players in 3 groups.

I'm not trying to predict who will fall so much as recognizing clear fallers. I listed the top 20 prospects that "should" go in the top 20 based on ability alone. For example, if we see Petan drop below the 20 threshold, we know that an inferior player was taken in his spot somewhere, which increases the chances of getting value in the 20-30 range.


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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
I'd swap Domi and Petan in your listings.

Probably drop Hagg out.

As per your own scouting, you feel Domi is a better prospect than Petan? And Hagg is not a top20 prospect?


Quote:
I think you have 3 guys in your 2nd group that to me aren't locks to go there - Nicushkin, Wennberg, and Ristolainen are not top 10 locks, I could see at least one getting into the 20's...maybe not with the amount of teams with multiple picks.

Otherwise I think you're top 20 is pretty good (other than Tiranis' suggestion to have Gauthier there instead of Horvat). Makes sense though, if any of those guys falls to us, it's a pretty safe no brainer (or at the very least teams should be calling to trade up, you'd think).

The top20 picks aren't really ordered. I just wanted to group the best 20 prospects per our own eye. If that makes sense. Do you feel Gauthier is better than Horvat as a prospect?


Quote:
I also hope the bolded are picked before we draft...maybe not Domi, but again, I'm probably biased against him by name association He's a talented player though, definite Marty St Louis caliber skillset.

I like Lazar, but I'm pretty biased here, I've liked him for 3.5 years since the Canada winter games.

Domi and Petan have higher upside, but I like the package you get from Lazar...more of a sure thing, with decently high upside as well.

The bolded sentence there is why I'm doing this. It's to recognize at the draft that if any of the players on the 20-45 list are taken in the top20, we know that there is a quality faller.

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Old
04-05-2013, 05:47 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
As per your own scouting, you feel Domi is a better prospect than Petan? And Hagg is not a top20 prospect?
I think they are quite comparable. Petan is shiftier while Domi is stronger. It's close. IMO, Domi carries more luster into the draft if you know what I mean. He'll be more heralded. Doesn't make him better.

comparable upsides.

Quote:
The top20 picks aren't really ordered. I just wanted to group the best 20 prospects per our own eye. If that makes sense. Do you feel Gauthier is better than Horvat as a prospect?
No Horvat is better.


Quote:
The bolded sentence there is why I'm doing this. It's to recognize at the draft that if any of the players on the 20-45 list are taken in the top20, we know that there is a quality faller.
Yeah i get that and I like the direction of this conversation.

Like I said earlier, I'm going to have to come up with my own top 60....was hoping to do one after the U18's, as it will give me a better look at some guys I'm unfamiliar with.

Compher is a guy who should find his way into this conversation at some point too.

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Old
04-05-2013, 07:23 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
I think they are quite comparable. Petan is shiftier while Domi is stronger. It's close. IMO, Domi carries more luster into the draft if you know what I mean. He'll be more heralded. Doesn't make him better.

comparable upsides.



No Horvat is better.


Agreed. And get your point about Domi.



Quote:
Yeah i get that and I like the direction of this conversation.

Like I said earlier, I'm going to have to come up with my own top 60....was hoping to do one after the U18's, as it will give me a better look at some guys I'm unfamiliar with.

Compher is a guy who should find his way into this conversation at some point too.


Haven't seen Compher. For him, I'm going off lists and write-ups. Things will change as we see more of the prospects of course.

Anyways, here's the list revised:

MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Monahan

Lindholm
Nurse
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Wennberg

Shinkaruk
Zadorov
Erne
Pulock
Lazar

Zykov
Horvat
Hägg
Morrissey
Domi

(That's the top20 locked if everyone is agreed)

So that leaves for the next five? (Again, strictly based on our own evaluation):

Petan
De La Rose
Klimchuk
Gauthier
Rychel

?

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Old
04-05-2013, 08:01 PM
  #54
Vankiller Whale
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^You've left off Mantha completely and I can't imagine Wennberg going before Shinkaruk I also think de La Rose is most likely to go in the mid-2nd round, but I might be wrong.

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04-05-2013, 08:12 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
^You've left off Mantha completely and I can't imagine Wennberg going before Shinkaruk I also think de La Rose is most likely to go in the mid-2nd round, but I might be wrong.
I think that list was intended to be a draft board, not a mock draft.

Jacob de La Rose is a really intriguing prospect to me. I haven't watched his club play in Sweden, but I was really impressed with his play in the WJC's. I was under the impression he potted a couple points that tournament but apparently my memory failed me. He definitely looked dangerous though, almost like a Hansen type.

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Old
04-05-2013, 08:43 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
I think that list was intended to be a draft board, not a mock draft.
Not sure why that would matter as to why Mantha wasn't mentioned, which I assume is an oversight.

I only mentioned Shinkaruk/Wennberg as to me Shinkaruk is in a tier above Wennberg on the rankings, when imo they should probably be swapped.

Quote:
Jacob de La Rose is a really intriguing prospect to me. I haven't watched his club play in Sweden, but I was really impressed with his play in the WJC's. I was under the impression he potted a couple points that tournament but apparently my memory failed me. He definitely looked dangerous though, almost like a Hansen type.
I just think he'll end up like Collberg. Great international play, but his so-so play during the season will cause him to fall. Whether he pans out or not is anyone's guess.

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04-05-2013, 08:47 PM
  #57
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Anyone up for the Prime Minister in the 4th round? Stephen Harper had an alright year with 18 G and 20 A on a very poor Erie team. Good size 6'1 195 lbs. He's known be a strong skater and good in all zone.

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Old
04-05-2013, 09:00 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
^You've left off Mantha completely and I can't imagine Wennberg going before Shinkaruk I also think de La Rose is most likely to go in the mid-2nd round, but I might be wrong.

The top20 isn't a mock, it's just a grouping of which 20 players _should_ be taken within the first 20 spots. No influence of team preference or other mocks. Just the top 20 best prospects as per our own consensus.

Who out of this group would you replace with Mantha:

Petan
De La Rose
Klimchuk
Gauthier
Rychel

If it's De La Rose, we disagree.



Quote:
Originally Posted by StringerBell View Post
I think that list was intended to be a draft board, not a mock draft.

Jacob de La Rose is a really intriguing prospect to me. I haven't watched his club play in Sweden, but I was really impressed with his play in the WJC's. I was under the impression he potted a couple points that tournament but apparently my memory failed me. He definitely looked dangerous though, almost like a Hansen type.

He's really good IMO. I would spend a 1st on him, no doubt. Him or Hagg. After watching them play a bit, they have impressed me. He's got a good IQ and plays a direct game. With his size+decent wheels, he has a very good shot at making it IMO. But the upside is the question. More of a 3rd liner if he does advance.

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Old
04-05-2013, 09:12 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Who out of this group would you replace with Mantha:

Petan
De La Rose
Klimchuk
Gauthier
Rychel

If it's De La Rose, we disagree.
All of them.

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Old
04-05-2013, 10:19 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
All of them.
Can you rank them with Mantha?

I think he can be above Gauthier or Rychel, but not the others. Even if I think Petan's weight will always hold him back. Not his height.

For the sake of argument, let's say Petan gets pushed out of that five and ends up the 26th best prospect overall. The last four to round it out could be:

Fucale
Compher
Mueller
Hartman

With the wildcards:

Dickinson
Lehkonen
Burakovsky

Since I still like Dickinson at the end of the 1st round, I'll replace Hartman with him to have my last 4 be:

Fucale
Compher
Mueller
Dickinson


So the 10 players that should be in the bottom third of the 1st round should be:

Mantha
Gauthier
Petan
Rychel
Klimchuk
De La Rose

Fucale
Compher
Mueller
Dickinson

Given perfect distribution, these are the 10 players that have to be at the bottom end of the 1st round. Now let's say the top 5 here are:

Mantha
Gauthier
Rychel
Klimchuk
Petan

So at 25, the Canucks still have a shot at one of these 5 players. And at one spot higher, De La Rose/Compher. So who do people of these 5 players or later?

Next, we can start to re-order the top 20 of how we think the mock will go, and based on the comparison on pure ability here, see where teams are likely to make the more inefficient picks, and the spot the obvious fallers.

Even here, where perfect choices are made, the Canucks have a real shot at Klimchuk/Petan/De La Rose/Compher etc... So they should be able to pull away a very good player regardless.

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Old
04-05-2013, 10:30 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Can you rank them with Mantha?

I think he can be above Gauthier or Rychel, but not the others. Even if I think Petan's weight will always hold him back. Not his height.
For me I would rank them:

Mantha
Gauthier/Petan(depending in what direction the Canucks go in for team make up, right now Petan would be the better fit, I think)
Rychel
Klimchuk
de la Rose

Although I would probably take a fair number of players before de la Rose, like Dickinson, Carrier, Compher, and even a defenseman, Shea Theodore, whom I wouldn't mind us taking with one of the last two picks of the draft, if no one falls.

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Old
04-06-2013, 02:19 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by BerSTUzzi View Post
Anyone up for the Prime Minister in the 4th round? Stephen Harper had an alright year with 18 G and 20 A on a very poor Erie team. Good size 6'1 195 lbs. He's known be a strong skater and good in all zone.
Wouldn't mind a late round pick... like 5th onwards. High risk/reward though.

From Brock's blog:
Quote:
Another guy who many were high on last season was Stephen Harper in Erie. Harper who had the look of a breakout goal scorer coming into the season. He has fallen off our map and likely many NHL scouts feel the same. His downright bad effort levels and negative body language on most nights might be due to playing in a losing environment for so long. Whatever the reason, his stock has really dipped from a first round possibility to a mid-to-late round probability.
Sounds like a change of scenery might help him next season.

---------

I think one player that has significantly risen his stock this OHL playoffs is Remi Elie. I've liked him for a while, just love the way he plays, but he has taken it to another level. Definitely a guy who rises to the occasion. I know not a lot would take him high based on his stats, but i'd reach for him in the late 3rd/4th, much like Josh Anderson.

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Old
04-06-2013, 03:46 AM
  #63
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Still like Jesse Lees from Kelowna as a late round pick.

Aswell as Sven Andreghettio. He impressed me alot in the WJ's and put up great numbers in the Q.

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04-06-2013, 03:48 AM
  #64
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Right handed, one shot scorer, hard worker, BC kid, excellent two way player, Canucks fan...

Not very much not to like, can play C or RW, very heavy shot. Plays the net front on the PP (he'd have more assists if they didn't play him there), captain material.

Enthusiastic, loves the game, always smiling.

I think at worst he becomes a high level #3C, possibly a #2C, but could very easily find his way on a 1st line as the RW.

Played on a line with Drouin and Mackinnon at the Hlinka...complimented their elite skills perfectly.

If we don't get him, as long as he doesn't end up in Toronto, Boston, Chicago, or Edmonton I could live with it....preferably out of our division too. I don't want to ever have to hate him.
His skating?

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04-06-2013, 04:06 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by BerSTUzzi View Post
Anyone up for the Prime Minister in the 4th round? Stephen Harper had an alright year with 18 G and 20 A on a very poor Erie team. Good size 6'1 195 lbs. He's known be a strong skater and good in all zone.
First Paul Martin, now Stephen Harper?

What's next? Justin Trudeau?

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Old
04-06-2013, 04:23 AM
  #66
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This coming years draft will be interesting to see unfold. Will it be another defenceman bonanza allowing top forwards to fall or will the forwards now be targeted and top defence left available? Will Fucale and Comrie be the only goalies selected in the first round or will some teams address goaltending (Calgary for example) and use one of their three first rounders on say Juuse Saros or Ebbe Sionas?

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04-06-2013, 06:25 AM
  #67
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hope we get a 2nd round pick come draft day via Luongo or something. This draft is too good to pass up.

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04-06-2013, 06:46 AM
  #68
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Is it just me who gets the feeling that there is a lot of prospects who will be picked between 20-45 who are of similar quality?

It might be a good year to drop down a few spots for 2nd, also there are few teams with multiple picks seconds who might be interested in moving up.

Hopefully Loungo/Ballard gets turned into picks.

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04-06-2013, 07:12 AM
  #69
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Is it just me who gets the feeling that there is a lot of prospects who will be picked between 20-45 who are of similar quality?
Depends on how the draft goes. Every year (but 2010) so far, there have been guys that fall for no reason to our spot (Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce). My feeling right now is that at least one of Zykov, Lazar and Domi will fall that far.

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04-06-2013, 08:41 AM
  #70
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Depends on how the draft goes. Every year (but 2010) so far, there have been guys that fall for no reason to our spot (Schroeder, Jensen, Gaunce). My feeling right now is that at least one of Zykov, Lazar and Domi will fall that far.
Thats true one elite guy (first line upside) might be better than 2 2nd line guys.

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04-06-2013, 10:00 AM
  #71
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How come Mantha is dropping? I thought he was supposed to go mid teens.

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04-06-2013, 10:12 AM
  #72
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Quote:
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How come Mantha is dropping? I thought he was supposed to go mid teens.
We will pick the highest remaining forward left on the board.

Gaunce was a projected Top 10 pick at the start of last season but because he didn't light the world on fire/show explosive qualities, teams automatically viewed him as a future 3rd line center (his offensive capabilities were overlooked).

Schroeder was a consensus top 10 pick all the way up to the draft pretty much but size/character questions caused teams to pass him up.

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04-06-2013, 11:29 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by thefeebster View Post
Wouldn't mind a late round pick... like 5th onwards. High risk/reward though.

From Brock's blog:


Sounds like a change of scenery might help him next season.

---------

I think one player that has significantly risen his stock this OHL playoffs is Remi Elie. I've liked him for a while, just love the way he plays, but he has taken it to another level. Definitely a guy who rises to the occasion. I know not a lot would take him high based on his stats, but i'd reach for him in the late 3rd/4th, much like Josh Anderson.

Really sounds like Harper could be a late round gem. I'm guessing Erie is prime for a much better season as McDavid matures and a few more of their 1st rounders come into form. It's tough to judge players on terrible teams.

I really like Cole Ully from Kamloops in the 4/5th round. He's a better skating (less tough) 17 year old version of JC Lipon. Very hard working kid with a good skill set.

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Old
04-06-2013, 12:31 PM
  #74
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For people looking for more footage on De La Rose:






So to continue the discussion about the value. Here again is the list based on prospect level (not a mock):


MacKinnon
Jones
Drouin
Barkov
Monahan

Lindholm
Nurse
Nichushkin
Ristolainen
Wennberg

Shinkaruk
Zadorov
Erne
Pulock
Lazar

Zykov
Horvat
Hägg
Morrissey
Domi

Mantha
Gauthier
Petan
Rychel
Klimchuk

De La Rose
Fucale
Compher
Mueller
Dickinson

And those that just missed:

Hartman
Lehkonen
Mcoschen


---------------------------------------------

And here's the latest TSN mock (Jan):


Jones
Mackinnon
Drouin
Barkov
Lindholm

Monahan
Ristolainen
Shinkaruk
Zadarov
Nichushkin

Wennberg
Nurse
Gauthier
Burakowsky
Pulock

Erne
Mantha
Domi
Horvat
Morrissey

Mueller
Fucale
Rychel
Dickinson
Lazar

De La Rose
Zykov
Hartman
Hagg
Compher


Off the top, the only top30 replacements are Hartman and Burakowsky from "our list". They replace Klimchuk and Petan. So the value list isn't far off from a consensus based mock. What's more, since the list is from Jan, I think it conceivable that Klimchuk and Petan have risen to the point of pushing out Hartman and Burakowsky, which makes the lists comparable. The only thing left is the order, which will change with a mock that reflect team needs/preference. That's the next step.

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04-06-2013, 05:23 PM
  #75
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I still think Shinkaruk and Wennberg should swap tiers. Shinkaruk is a top-10 prospect, imo. Wennberg I see more as deserving to be picked in the mid-teens. Not that it really matters, as we'll be well after that.

My only worry is that of those that might fall, a big reason would be because of the Russian factor.(Zykov, Zadorov, and Nichushkin) The problem is that Gillis has less of an affinity towards Russians than virtually any other GM in the league, so if they passed over Russian player X, I'd have to think that Gillis would too.

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