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The Luongo Thread - OMG Guyz Schneider is Hurt - MOD WARNING IN OP

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Old
04-05-2013, 12:35 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
The Canucks would be trying to move Luongo regardless of what kind of contract he had. He's been replaced.
Yeah, the contract is not the reason he's being moved. Schneider is younger and has shown that he's a very good number one. Luongo's contract only impacts our return. Some day some young guy like Lack or someone else may make Schneider expendible too. It's the circle of life.

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04-05-2013, 12:41 PM
  #77
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I'm just hoping he gets traded to a division rival of the Leafs. Dave Nonis is negotiating in bad faith, of course we all already know, that MIke Gillis will never make an offer of Luongo for 2 draft picks and a back up goalie. Never.

I rather give him away to Florida then trade him to Toronto at this point.

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04-05-2013, 12:59 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Fat Tony View Post
This is a valid reason to retain Luongo. There's a disconnect between the argument that this is a great contract and the fact that the Canucks are pushing hard to move him. Other GMs realize this and will play on this.
It is not a great contract other than the fact that it's relatively cap friendly. Aside from the fact that there is no guarantee that Luongo won't play out his contract, it's tough to try to move a goaltender that will likely be your number one for the long, foreseeable future for the receiving team. It's the reason why Toronto's interest was lukewarm at best, it's why Florida isn't interested, and why he's been a tough sell. All of these teams are grooming number ones, and to acquire Luongo will mean that they will be pushed aside.

It's not the contract dollars, it's the contract length. Reimer is already past the point where he needs to play a backup role to develop as a player. Florida does not need Luongo filling up the net for the next 4-5 years as Markstrom is almost ready, and will probably need only 2 years at most as a backup, if they were looking at developing him slowly. Even if a team acquiring Luongo is looking at him as a short-term solution, they would have to deal with trading him after a few years as a cap maneuver ala Thomas to Islanders, and the problem with that line of thinking is that his salary doesn't drop until year 5.

Islanders could be a fit, but Luongo's actual salary is very high, and I doubt they could afford him, even if they were somewhat interested. Phily could be, but they would have to get rid of Bryzgalov first, and they probably would not be willing to pay a high price for him given the steps they would have to take to get rid of Bryz. I see Buffalo wanting to go young and rebuild, hence why they acquired Hackett. Tampa made a lot of sense; it gives Vasilevski time to develop, gives them a starter to contend now, but SY was just not interested...didn't jive with his stance.

GMs are where they are for a reason, and they are way smarter than some people give them credit for. They are not that interested for good reason.

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04-05-2013, 01:03 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
The Canucks would be trying to move Luongo regardless of what kind of contract he had. He's been replaced.
Yeah but that was Fat Tony's argument. He has a good contract, especially as a 2-3 year rental as I've illustrated previously.

However, other GM's know he has to be moved, so they're driving down the price. Plus, the circumstances of this year mean that they are less likely to gamble on such an acquisition when they can see how things shake out in the off-season.

But the common narrative is much simpler - his contract sucks! OMG!

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04-05-2013, 04:29 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Bourdon View Post
Islanders could be a fit, but Luongo's actual salary is very high, and I doubt they could afford him, even if they were somewhat interested.
Luongo is affordable if the Canucks take back DiPietro. A lot more possibilities open up if Gillis drops his insistence on not taking back salary. What would Gillis do if he had to choose between trading Luongo for a bag of pucks or a grade A prospect + DiPietro?

I would also suggest St. Louis as a possible off-season trade partner. Their goaltending situation is looking pretty shaky with Halak injured yet again. Luongo can carry the load while they develop Jake Allen (who is only 22). The Blues were picked by some to win the Western conference and have been pretty disappointing. If they fail to make the playoffs or get bounced out in the first round, Doug Armstrong may decide that he needs to shake up the team.

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04-05-2013, 05:53 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
...

All Gillis has to do, IMO, is take a salary back (to buyout) and/or retain salary, and the deal, with a good return, comes to the Canucks... The higher the salary back and/or retained salary, the better the return... Teams feel that Gillis doesn't have the leverage to not retain salary, and they've been right, at least until this point... See what more time brings in terms of changes to the market, but to me, I think Gillis is going to have to take salary back (to buyout) and/or retain salary, to not only get the deal he wants back... but to get any team in the next few months (and really, end of August or sometime September is probably the window) to make a deal... Teams can out wait Gillis here, IMO, cause everybody knows that the Canucks can't have both goalies here next season (with the lower cap)... But there is a market for Luongo... just doesn't look like a market for Luongo without making the contract more attractive via returning contract buyout/salary retention...

...
So...what would Philly give if Bryz was coming our way?

Not that Gillis would necessarily get the green light on this but that could be a very interesting deal.

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04-05-2013, 06:23 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Matty View Post
So...what would Philly give if Bryz was coming our way?

Not that Gillis would necessarily get the green light on this but that could be a very interesting deal.
Ya, I don't know... but, it opens up a lot of potential options...

This might be "pie in the sky" (I'm thinking out loud)... but could the following work? If the Canucks could swing the following... I think Gillis could get the green light:

To Van: Lecavalier + 1st (4th?)
To TB: Luongo + 1st (22nd?)

Vancouver buys out Lecavalier... Then as an UFA, Lecavalier re-signs with TB at whatever contract they agree to (I imagine real low, and I imagine there is little risk for Lecavalier to sign elsewhere as a UFA)...

Then...

To FLA: 1st (4th?) + ?
To Van: 1st (2nd? 1st?)

Would Aquilini forgive Gillis if Gillis got MacKinnon or Jones out of this? Would the fans? I think so...

The thing is, would Luongo + 1st (22nd?), solving TB's goaltending for years, and solving the Lecavalier dilemma forever (without TB having to let go of or buy out Vinny, be enough to get the 4th? When else would TB have such an opportunity to jump on this? And, TB still drafts a quality prospect with the 1st rounder... Yes, it's a large investment in Luongo, but if Luongo retires early, the Canucks share in the cap penalty going forward... It's a much better situation than TB is currently in, without doing all this, IMO... Yes, with the 4th, TB would draft a real strong A prospect, but they'd still have that Lecavalier dilemma... and they'd still have a real big goaltending issue...

If and once the Canucks can get the 4th, then I think it's smooth sailing getting the #2 or #1 from Florida...

And, Luongo is happy...
win-win-win?

But, just thinking out loud... It's unchartered territory once Gillis adds taking a contract back (and/or salary retention) into the equation...

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04-05-2013, 08:21 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
The Canucks would be trying to move Luongo regardless of what kind of contract he had. He's been replaced.
And other GMs realize this and will play on it.

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04-05-2013, 11:22 PM
  #84
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here is something to think about and it is very crazy--

If you do not like crazy ideas--stop reading now

Okay

here we go

It was speculated by a few Edmonton media guys that the Oilers had talks with the gillis about getting Mr Luongo into the oilers copper and blue-- and the asking price was one of Hall, Eberle, Nuge or Yakupov and the oiler turned this down. What if, as part of the leaf/Canuck trade for Luongo was the condition that the leafs could not flip Luongo to the Oilers for say Dubnyk and the oilers 2013 first? What if the going back and forth between Gillis and Nonis was not about getting the canucks to take back 1/4 of Luongo contract--but to remove the stipulation that the leafs could not flip Lou to the oilers. This year would not be that bad--but next year--with the new conferences is another story.

There is a lot of different ideas out there and I know mine is one of the more bat **** crazier ones--but I think the oilers are laying in the weeds to wear down Gillis. Things might change between now and the draft with what Philly and a few teams do in net--but I think we will stat hearing Luong to the OIlers rumours get started in the off season,

Bob Stauffer, who hosts oilers now, tweeted about the Oilers being involbved in a game changer of a trade back in November and then said that it could still happen in the off season. Stauffer is on the oilers payroll and often drops hints as to somethings they have going on. For about 4 months on the oiler board we ran down a million and one trades-- the one that I keep coming back to is Luongo to the oilers-- I know it sounds crazy--but I think that this could happen in the future--iF Luongo wants to play and realizes that the teams he had previously lists were not interested in him--he might go to whomever offers him a starting job-- like I said a crazy idea--but stranger stuff has happened

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04-06-2013, 12:34 AM
  #85
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Could someone tell me if the two 2nds and Scrivens rumour a joke? What is the source?

I would like to think that Luongo would fetch much more than this, I don't like to think that Gillis would have made this offer (even as a favour to Luongo), and can't believe Nonis would have turned it down if offered it.

Or perhaps I am underrating Scrivens or something? I can't say that I've watched him play a full game before. Still though... Young goalies are always such a crapshoot. It's rarely obvious which goalie prospects will succeed or not. Hence they're very rarely drafted early.

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04-06-2013, 12:48 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Chubros View Post
Could someone tell me if the two 2nds and Scrivens rumour a joke? What is the source?

I would like to think that Luongo would fetch much more than this, I don't like to think that Gillis would have made this offer (even as a favour to Luongo), and can't believe Nonis would have turned it down if offered it.

Or perhaps I am underrating Scrivens or something? I can't say that I've watched him play a full game before. Still though... Young goalies are always such a crapshoot. It's rarely obvious which goalie prospects will succeed or not. Hence they're very rarely drafted early.
tsn and sportsnet both reported the offer

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04-06-2013, 12:49 AM
  #87
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This year buyout costs (June 2013)

Lecavalier $30m
Luongo $27m
Bryzgalov $23

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04-06-2013, 12:52 AM
  #88
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i don't get the assertion that the market has collapsed for luongo because other gm's see now view this as a contract dump situation rather than a possible hockey trade

if they think it's a contract dump for the canucks now then they thought that a year ago...nothing has changed in luongo's situation and it's likely that the meagre returns gillis was sifting through at the deadline were not radically different than the meagre returns offered during the offseason

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04-06-2013, 12:54 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Chubros View Post
Could someone tell me if the two 2nds and Scrivens rumour a joke? What is the source?

I would like to think that Luongo would fetch much more than this, I don't like to think that Gillis would have made this offer (even as a favour to Luongo), and can't believe Nonis would have turned it down if offered it.
I am inclined to believe it was true, Gillis was trying to find Luongo decent team. I don't know what Luongo thinks of Toronto though after Nonis deliberately and publicly humiliated him by releasing the details as fast and in as much detail through Dreger as he did.

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04-06-2013, 12:56 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
tsn and sportsnet both reported the offer
I still do not believe that is the whole story myself

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04-06-2013, 01:01 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Chubros View Post
Could someone tell me if the two 2nds and Scrivens rumour a joke? What is the source?

I would like to think that Luongo would fetch much more than this, I don't like to think that Gillis would have made this offer (even as a favour to Luongo), and can't believe Nonis would have turned it down if offered it.

Or perhaps I am underrating Scrivens or something? I can't say that I've watched him play a full game before. Still though... Young goalies are always such a crapshoot. It's rarely obvious which goalie prospects will succeed or not. Hence they're very rarely drafted early.
We will see come off season what we get but if the situation was reversed and we had the same goal tending as some of the teams out there I would pay more if the price was higher, but thats just me

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04-06-2013, 02:29 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by TallPoppySyndrome View Post
I still do not believe that is the whole story myself
Why would Gillis make that offer at the deadline? 2 2nds and Scrivens wouldn't help the team at all in this year's playoffs. He could wait until the draft if he was going to lower his asking price that far.

The only reason to make that trade would be as a favour to Luongo. MG gets paid to improve the team, not to do favours to Luongo.

And if it were true, why would Nonis have turned down that offer?

None of it makes sense.

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04-06-2013, 03:22 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Chubros View Post
Why would Gillis make that offer at the deadline? 2 2nds and Scrivens wouldn't help the team at all in this year's playoffs. He could wait until the draft if he was going to lower his asking price that far.

The only reason to make that trade would be as a favour to Luongo. MG gets paid to improve the team, not to do favours to Luongo.

And if it were true, why would Nonis have turned down that offer?

None of it makes sense.
Why did every team allow Jokinen to clear waivers?

It makes sense because in today's NHL, it's as much about cap management as it is about asset management, and especially coming into a season that's about to witness a cap crunch, Luongo's value is at an all time low. Teams know Gillis needs to shed salary to keep the Canucks complaint and they can make him sweat.

There's no reason to believe the proposed package is false unless you're angry at the fact that a lowball offer was rejected. Fans of this team need to accept the reality that at this time: Luongo's value is very, very low, and this isn't a goalie buyers market at the moment.

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04-06-2013, 03:37 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by vector209 View Post
Why did every team allow Jokinen to clear waivers?

It makes sense because in today's NHL, it's as much about cap management as it is about asset management, and especially coming into a season that's about to witness a cap crunch, Luongo's value is at an all time low. Teams know Gillis needs to shed salary to keep the Canucks complaint and they can make him sweat.

There's no reason to believe the proposed package is false unless you're angry at the fact that a lowball offer was rejected. Fans of this team need to accept the reality that at this time: Luongo's value is very, very low, and this isn't a goalie buyers market at the moment.
No that is not the case, I am not at all angry at anything like that, that would be silly, I have no emotional energy tied up in what we get back for Luongo, but I have heard TSN say lots of things that are not true, just one week ago they reported the Iggy deal to Boston, and the package they reported was wrong, in this deal they say 2 2nds and but it could have been a conditional first and a second...

also I do not think it makes sense for TO to turn that down, but I am no GM, but if the situation was reversed between us and TO, I think MG should make the proposed trade.

and why do I need to accept your reality as my own, what happens if I don't?

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04-06-2013, 04:01 AM
  #95
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Originally Posted by TallPoppySyndrome View Post
I still do not believe that is the whole story myself
Guaranteed it's not.

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04-06-2013, 04:17 AM
  #96
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Why did every team allow Jokinen to clear waivers?

It makes sense because in today's NHL, it's as much about cap management as it is about asset management, and especially coming into a season that's about to witness a cap crunch, Luongo's value is at an all time low. Teams know Gillis needs to shed salary to keep the Canucks complaint and they can make him sweat.

There's no reason to believe the proposed package is false unless you're angry at the fact that a lowball offer was rejected. Fans of this team need to accept the reality that at this time: Luongo's value is very, very low, and this isn't a goalie buyers market at the moment.
No one is angry. It just doesn't make sense to me.

Cap crunch is not a huge problem for this team - there are other candidates for buyouts (Ballard and Booth) that give the team some breathing room next year. Gillis can wait longer if need be to trade Luongo.

Luongo would have helped Nonis's Leafs in the playoffs this year. Essentially the rumoured deal has the Leafs getting Luongo for free. You have to think that Nonis would have accepted it - he's traded for him once before.

The rumour also doesn't mesh with what Gillis has maintained all along - that he's not willing to give Luongo away, and that he's willing to wait as long as it takes to get something that will help the team.

And to reiterate what I said earlier, that deal makes no sense at the deadline as it brings nothing to help Vancouver for the upcoming playoffs. It would have been a foolish thing for Vancouver to have proposed.

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04-06-2013, 09:22 AM
  #97
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Ya, I don't know... but, it opens up a lot of potential options...

This might be "pie in the sky" (I'm thinking out loud)... but could the following work? If the Canucks could swing the following... I think Gillis could get the green light:

To Van: Lecavalier + 1st (4th?)
To TB: Luongo + 1st (22nd?)

Vancouver buys out Lecavalier... Then as an UFA, Lecavalier re-signs with TB at whatever contract they agree to (I imagine real low, and I imagine there is little risk for Lecavalier to sign elsewhere as a UFA)...

Then...

To FLA: 1st (4th?) + ?
To Van: 1st (2nd? 1st?)

Would Aquilini forgive Gillis if Gillis got MacKinnon or Jones out of this? Would the fans? I think so...

The thing is, would Luongo + 1st (22nd?), solving TB's goaltending for years, and solving the Lecavalier dilemma forever (without TB having to let go of or buy out Vinny, be enough to get the 4th? When else would TB have such an opportunity to jump on this? And, TB still drafts a quality prospect with the 1st rounder... Yes, it's a large investment in Luongo, but if Luongo retires early, the Canucks share in the cap penalty going forward... It's a much better situation than TB is currently in, without doing all this, IMO... Yes, with the 4th, TB would draft a real strong A prospect, but they'd still have that Lecavalier dilemma... and they'd still have a real big goaltending issue...

If and once the Canucks can get the 4th, then I think it's smooth sailing getting the #2 or #1 from Florida...

And, Luongo is happy...
win-win-win?

But, just thinking out loud... It's unchartered territory once Gillis adds taking a contract back (and/or salary retention) into the equation...

Friendly rule of thumb to live by when creating trades. If it sounds like cap circumvention it is cap circumvention, and there is almost definitely a rule in the CBA against it.

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04-06-2013, 11:27 AM
  #98
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However, other GM's know he has to be moved, so they're driving down the price.
If there were only 2-3 other GMs in the league, that would be a valid argument. With 29 other GMs in the league, it's not.

Bottom line: the contract is terrible the moment there is a need to trade him. That such a need came about so soon after the contract took effect is just plain bad management.

 
Old
04-06-2013, 11:47 AM
  #99
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Friendly rule of thumb to live by when creating trades. If it sounds like cap circumvention it is cap circumvention, and there is almost definitely a rule in the CBA against it.
What is the rule? A team cannot trade for a player to buyout? A player traded for the purposes of buyout cannot re-sign as a UFA with the team he was traded from?

I don't consider it cap circumventing, when the result is the Canucks would buy out a 30m contract... and TB would acquire a contract where they pay a penalty if the player retires early... I'd call that Bettman won... But what is the specific rule against it?

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04-06-2013, 12:25 PM
  #100
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What is the rule? A team cannot trade for a player to buyout? A player traded for the purposes of buyout cannot re-sign as a UFA with the team he was traded from?

I don't consider it cap circumventing, when the result is the Canucks would buy out a 30m contract... and TB would acquire a contract where they pay a penalty if the player retires early... I'd call that Bettman won... But what is the specific rule against it?
Think of it from Tampa's point of view. It would absolutely be cap circumvention if they paid another team a first round pick to buyout a player then re-sign him on a min deal. I havent dived into the CBA to find the exact rule, but I would be absolutely stunned if there wasn't a rule that prevented this.

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