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[NAS/WAS] Martin Erat and Michael Latta for Filip Forsberg

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04-05-2013, 09:25 AM
  #501
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If my predictions for all three players involved are right, Caps win this trade. Had Erat played on a team with more hype surrounding it, he'd be more highly thought of.

I expect Erat to be 45-60 pt player for at least 3 more years (including this one),then he may take a paycut and still contribute at 35-50 pt level and be a servicable 3rd liner with ability to make stuff happen offensively.

I expect Latta to be a solid bottom-6 player who sure will bring a lot more than just points. He'll make Caps way tougher to play against and I hope we retain Hendricks to have a respectable physical presence on each line (Ovechkin, Brouwer, Latta, Hendricks). I'd say 15-20 points for him in the next two years and then 20-35 for at least 8 years at least. Had this guy played for Toronto, everybody and their mother would know him (see: Jesse Blacker, Tyler Biggs, etc.).

With Forsberg, I expect him to be around 30 points next season and then a 50-60 point player through most of his career (let's hope it's 15+ years).

If you break this trade down not looking at the names and hype, that doesn't look all that bad. And I was very frustrated at the first glance, but research turned my opinion around.

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04-05-2013, 09:39 AM
  #502
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I do believe that some of the "souring" by the Capitals on Forsberg is damage control. The fanbase was irate on the whole, and I think it was a quick "oh yeah, well, actually, we think he sucks, we just didn't realize it nine months ago."

Lucas Bergman is probably Nashville's best scout-- Patric Hornqvist, Anders Lindback, Mattias Ekholm, even a hand in Pekka Rinne. Poile said that FF is a player 'their scouts' love, and that his availability in this trade essentially made it happen immediately.

I get the trade for the Capitals, George McPhee in particular. If they miss the playoffs, he's probably out of a job..Erat helps the immediate issues in the short term, whereas Nashville is trying to reshape its core going forward. It won't be about Martin Erat (or even Mike Fisher\David Legwand); it will be about Colin Wilson, Filip Forsberg, Austin Watson, Craig Smith, Brendan Leipsic, Jim Vesey, Gabby Bourque, Taylor Beck, Zach Budish, etc. We've essentially been beating our heads against the wall for the last 5 years with the same forward group, and we've got probably the best group of prospect forwards that we've ever had.

Ironically, the defense is a little weaker than it's ever been, with really only Ellis and Ekholm of note in the pipe...but with a top ten pick this year, they could easily add a big chip-- Nurse, Ristolainen, Pulock, etc.

As some have mentioned, Poile was interviewed last night and said that they want to get Forsberg over immediately THIS season, and that he would essentially be in North America from here on out. They want to have him practice with the team for a few days, and if it "makes sense," they'll insert him into the lineup to close out the season...but it sounds like they believe that he's essentially NHL ready now.

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04-05-2013, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
It's OK. Nashville is known as a defense-first club, and we need a top 4 D as well. Of course, we are in slightly worse shape than Washington I would say
I don't think we are in worse shape defensively. Weber-Josi-Klein are a great top 3, Ellis is getting there but is still just a decent number 6, Bartley is a good bottom pairing guy, I'd easily take either of those over Hillen, in fact Ellis as a rookie looked better than Hillen last season and actually took his job as the number 6 last season.

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04-05-2013, 11:03 AM
  #504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fedfed View Post
If my predictions for all three players involved are right, Caps win this trade. Had Erat played on a team with more hype surrounding it, he'd be more highly thought of.

I expect Erat to be 45-60 pt player for at least 3 more years (including this one),then he may take a paycut and still contribute at 35-50 pt level and be a servicable 3rd liner with ability to make stuff happen offensively.

I expect Latta to be a solid bottom-6 player who sure will bring a lot more than just points. He'll make Caps way tougher to play against and I hope we retain Hendricks to have a respectable physical presence on each line (Ovechkin, Brouwer, Latta, Hendricks). I'd say 15-20 points for him in the next two years and then 20-35 for at least 8 years at least. Had this guy played for Toronto, everybody and their mother would know him (see: Jesse Blacker, Tyler Biggs, etc.).

With Forsberg, I expect him to be around 30 points next season and then a 50-60 point player through most of his career (let's hope it's 15+ years).

If you break this trade down not looking at the names and hype, that doesn't look all that bad. And I was very frustrated at the first glance, but research turned my opinion around.
The difference is that, in your analysis, Forsberg will equal Erat's production by 2014-15 for about 1/5 of the cost.

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04-05-2013, 03:01 PM
  #505
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Originally Posted by fedfed View Post
Worse team
No preseason
No reason to bring his A game.
I like the Caps too, but at least I know a bad trade when I see one

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04-05-2013, 03:06 PM
  #506
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Originally Posted by OurGocIsAnAwesomeGoc View Post
I do believe that some of the "souring" by the Capitals on Forsberg is damage control. The fanbase was irate on the whole, and I think it was a quick "oh yeah, well, actually, we think he sucks, we just didn't realize it nine months ago."

Lucas Bergman is probably Nashville's best scout-- Patric Hornqvist, Anders Lindback, Mattias Ekholm, even a hand in Pekka Rinne. Poile said that FF is a player 'their scouts' love, and that his availability in this trade essentially made it happen immediately.
Rumor today has it that the Preds have soured on FF over the last ninety hours... they incorrectly thought he was a defenseman when they originally made the trade. Look for him to be flipped asap.

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04-05-2013, 03:07 PM
  #507
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He's on pace for 47 in 82 games now. So not that bad.
For a top flight prospect, that is.

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04-05-2013, 03:11 PM
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I like this trade from Washington - they aren't quitting on their season and they pick up a really good player for their team in Erat. Plus they add Latta, who I think will play in the NHL.

Nashville pick up a pretty good prospect in Forsberg, although time will tell how good he turns out to be. If he manages a career like Erat's, then Nashville will be happy, but even still, Erat is already Erat, so unless Forsberg turns into a superstar or Erat totally flops in Washington, I think the Caps did well here.

If Ovechkin and Backstrom get back into form (which they seem to be), could they make another run?

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04-05-2013, 03:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OurGocIsAnAwesomeGoc View Post
I do believe that some of the "souring" by the Capitals on Forsberg is damage control. The fanbase was irate on the whole, and I think it was a quick "oh yeah, well, actually, we think he sucks, we just didn't realize it nine months ago."

Lucas Bergman is probably Nashville's best scout-- Patric Hornqvist, Anders Lindback, Mattias Ekholm, even a hand in Pekka Rinne. Poile said that FF is a player 'their scouts' love, and that his availability in this trade essentially made it happen immediately.

I get the trade for the Capitals, George McPhee in particular. If they miss the playoffs, he's probably out of a job..Erat helps the immediate issues in the short term, whereas Nashville is trying to reshape its core going forward. It won't be about Martin Erat (or even Mike Fisher\David Legwand); it will be about Colin Wilson, Filip Forsberg, Austin Watson, Craig Smith, Brendan Leipsic, Jim Vesey, Gabby Bourque, Taylor Beck, Zach Budish, etc. We've essentially been beating our heads against the wall for the last 5 years with the same forward group, and we've got probably the best group of prospect forwards that we've ever had.

Ironically, the defense is a little weaker than it's ever been, with really only Ellis and Ekholm of note in the pipe...but with a top ten pick this year, they could easily add a big chip-- Nurse, Ristolainen, Pulock, etc.

As some have mentioned, Poile was interviewed last night and said that they want to get Forsberg over immediately THIS season, and that he would essentially be in North America from here on out. They want to have him practice with the team for a few days, and if it "makes sense," they'll insert him into the lineup to close out the season...but it sounds like they believe that he's essentially NHL ready now.
What sours a lot of us is GMGM wouldn't give up those type of prospects for Pronger or other players in years past. It appears to be a job saving trade. Having said this, Erat is going to help the team for now. Good post.

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04-05-2013, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The difference is that, in your analysis, Forsberg will equal Erat's production by 2014-15 for about 1/5 of the cost.
The Caps need to win now, not in 2014-15 or later.

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04-05-2013, 03:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IafrateOvie34 View Post
What sours a lot of us is GMGM wouldn't give up those type of prospects for Pronger or other players in years past. It appears to be a job saving trade. Having said this, Erat is going to help the team for now. Good post.
Or he could just think when the team will be at its peak. We have a solid goaltender, defense better than in 2009 and good second line.

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04-05-2013, 04:03 PM
  #512
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Or he could just think when the team will be at its peak. We have a solid goaltender, defense better than in 2009 and good second line.
So true. We really needed that 2nd line center for ages.

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04-05-2013, 05:00 PM
  #513
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Can anyone elaborate on these comments that Mike Fisher allegedly said and are posted on the Preds board, #Preds' Fisher: "We want guys here that want to play and want to be part of this team, that want to win, and that wasn't the case w/ Marty."

Seems rather harsh of Fisher to make such comments after he himself asked to be traded out of Ottawa to Nashville. I don't care if the circumstances are different, it just seems something you shouldn't broadcast about a guy who has played some 10+ seasons with the team.

What was Erat's relationship with Fisher and other teammates?

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04-05-2013, 05:25 PM
  #514
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Originally Posted by Ryan Madden View Post
I like this trade from Washington - they aren't quitting on their season and they pick up a really good player for their team in Erat. Plus they add Latta, who I think will play in the NHL.

Nashville pick up a pretty good prospect in Forsberg, although time will tell how good he turns out to be. If he manages a career like Erat's, then Nashville will be happy, but even still, Erat is already Erat, so unless Forsberg turns into a superstar or Erat totally flops in Washington, I think the Caps did well here.

If Ovechkin and Backstrom get back into form (which they seem to be), could they make another run?
If Forsberg ends up as another Erat, he's a disappointing prospect, and I mean no disrespect to Marty. Forsberg's upside is considerably higher than Erat's ever was.

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04-05-2013, 09:24 PM
  #515
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Good deal for Nashville, many had Forsberg as a top 5 pick last year. Maybe the steal of the draft!

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04-05-2013, 10:47 PM
  #516
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I don't think we are in worse shape defensively. Weber-Josi-Klein are a great top 3, Ellis is getting there but is still just a decent number 6, Bartley is a good bottom pairing guy, I'd easily take either of those over Hillen, in fact Ellis as a rookie looked better than Hillen last season and actually took his job as the number 6 last season.
I meant overall.

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04-06-2013, 08:11 AM
  #517
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Can anyone elaborate on these comments that Mike Fisher allegedly said and are posted on the Preds board, #Preds' Fisher: "We want guys here that want to play and want to be part of this team, that want to win, and that wasn't the case w/ Marty."

Seems rather harsh of Fisher to make such comments after he himself asked to be traded out of Ottawa to Nashville. I don't care if the circumstances are different, it just seems something you shouldn't broadcast about a guy who has played some 10+ seasons with the team.

What was Erat's relationship with Fisher and other teammates?
Fisher didn't ask out of Ottawa.

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04-06-2013, 08:31 AM
  #518
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You have wonder how many other teams knew Forsberg was available.

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04-06-2013, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by OurGocIsAnAwesomeGoc View Post
If Forsberg ends up as another Erat, he's a disappointing prospect, and I mean no disrespect to Marty. Forsberg's upside is considerably higher than Erat's ever was.
That's my issue with the trade. Nashville isn't exactly the team where players go to put up major points. Poile has always seemed like a defense first gm and that's even going back to his time with the caps.

In that system Forsberg fits better than most prospects ESP available prospects. However I think unless Nashville adds better offensive players,counting on FF to produce big time numbers may be a stretch.

I like Colin Wilson but he's not even quite the playmaker needed to help Forsberg reach his ceiling of offensive potential. I hope it happens and aside from a few bitter caps fans I think we all do.

This does however reek to me of a cost effective trade for Nashville. You are now hoping to replace Erat with a cheap elc player for the next few years. Not knowing much of Nashville but I do know much about Poile it's makes a lot of sense.

Dear preds. .....draft a big playmaking center!

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04-06-2013, 09:27 AM
  #520
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You have wonder how many other teams knew Forsberg was available.
Poile reportedly contacted Washington to inform them that Erat was available and that Washington was on his acceptable trade list. They asked for Forsberg.

My guess? He wasn't available. He became available.

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04-06-2013, 09:28 AM
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That's my issue with the trade. Nashville isn't exactly the team where players go to put up major points. Poile has always seemed like a defense first gm and that's even going back to his time with the caps.

In that system Forsberg fits better than most prospects ESP available prospects. However I think unless Nashville adds better offensive players,counting on FF to produce big time numbers may be a stretch.

I like Colin Wilson but he's not even quite the playmaker needed to help Forsberg reach his ceiling of offensive potential. I hope it happens and aside from a few bitter caps fans I think we all do.

This does however reek to me of a cost effective trade for Nashville. You are now hoping to replace Erat with a cheap elc player for the next few years. Not knowing much of Nashville but I do know much about Poile it's makes a lot of sense.

Dear preds. .....draft a big playmaking center!
This is a myth.

Again; Kariya, Dumont, Sullivan, Arnott, Radulov, Hornqvist and SK have all done well in this system. This system never held Erat back, Erat's health has though.

Last season, Nashville finished 7th in the league offensively (well ahead of Washington) and had the number 1 powerplay.

Nashville's scoring troubles this season has more to do with injuries (Hornqvist, Bourque, Fisher, Wilson) and early struggles by Legwand, Fisher and especially Erat.

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04-06-2013, 09:45 AM
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This is a myth.

Again; Kariya, Dumont, Sullivan, Arnott, Radulov, Hornqvist and SK have all done well in this system. This system never held Erat back, Erat's health has though.

Last season, Nashville finished 7th in the league offensively (well ahead of Washington) and had the number 1 powerplay.

Nashville's scoring troubles this season has more to do with injuries (Hornqvist, Bourque, Fisher, Wilson) and early struggles by Legwand, Fisher and especially Erat.
Nashville's system, to me it seems like, is not about not scoring. It's about spread out scoring. Very difficult to put up big numbers if you are a creative offensive player, yet numbers of Preds checkers seem to be inflated. That's just my feeling, I may not be right.

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04-06-2013, 10:08 AM
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Nashville's system, to me it seems like, is not about not scoring. It's about spread out scoring. Very difficult to put up big numbers if you are a creative offensive player, yet numbers of Preds checkers seem to be inflated. That's just my feeling, I may not be right.
Again, I just posted examples of how you're wrong.

Good offensive players are good offensive players in Nashville's system.

I don't even think Dumont is a great offensive player yet he put up really good numbers.

An older Kariya put up 85 points.

You can believe what you want, but doesn't look like you've actually seen Nashville play.

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04-06-2013, 11:57 AM
  #524
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Why can't both teams win?

Erat gives the Caps, a win now team, help on the left side.

Forsberg is a prospect who could help them years from now. Who is also a RW that may never get above Brouwer on the depth chart making him a 3RW. That spot projects to be Wilson's.

Yea, the Caps probably could have got more. However, Latta is the wild card here. He could help the Caps develop a damaging third line with Wilson.

It looks like the Caps new direction is to be scary to play against. OV fits that type of team best. I don't know that Forsberg projects to be that. Wilson does.

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04-06-2013, 12:51 PM
  #525
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That's my issue with the trade. Nashville isn't exactly the team where players go to put up major points. Poile has always seemed like a defense first gm and that's even going back to his time with the caps.

In that system Forsberg fits better than most prospects ESP available prospects. However I think unless Nashville adds better offensive players,counting on FF to produce big time numbers may be a stretch.

I like Colin Wilson but he's not even quite the playmaker needed to help Forsberg reach his ceiling of offensive potential. I hope it happens and aside from a few bitter caps fans I think we all do.

This does however reek to me of a cost effective trade for Nashville. You are now hoping to replace Erat with a cheap elc player for the next few years. Not knowing much of Nashville but I do know much about Poile it's makes a lot of sense.

Dear preds. .....draft a big playmaking center!
I'm not so sure. Erat asked if he could be moved. Poile said at first he was prepared to deal with it over the summer, but when he talked to McPhee and realized Forsberg could be had he pulled the trigger. Nashville ought to be able to spend towards the cap next season with it reducing. Whether or not they will remains to be seen, of course. Next year 14 players are signed, and the team has $22m in cap space. I'd like to see some moves made, but not moves just for the sake of doing it.

And I agree. Since the team looks to be out of it I hope Poile is able to further stock the forward prospect pool with a good center.

edit: I just did a quick cap calculation on capgeek. With everyone signed, two extra forwards, one extra D and without FF on the roster the team still has $11m. I hope Poile can spend it somewhere


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