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Faint Glimmer of Hope: tracking the quest for 8th place

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Old
04-06-2013, 12:59 AM
  #301
McHopelessoilfan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Theres nothing insane about it, this is how playoff races usually unfold and people drastically underestimate how difficult it is to catch teams at this time of year.

In another thread I pointed out a week ago that SJ, 5pts clear at the time were not going to be catchable. That only STL and Detroit were even in play for us both which would be tough. Very tough for us to overcome. Thats the trouble when you lead the charge of the lightbrigade to the last minute everything has to go right. Trouble is in a playoff race, and with backteams pressuring, the teams that are in the top 8 spots usually find a way to win and stay there.

Did people think any of SJ, STl, or Det was just going to lay down?

Really?

Also, as recently as days ago people were somehow postulating that as little as 53pts was going to get us in. This is absolutely wrong and nothing less than 56 pts will be required as I stated weeks ago. Mark my word.
Well i guess all we can do, is hope this team can pull of a miraculous 8-3 finish to the season... but honestly, as a fan who only started watching seriously the year after the 06 run, this is the most exciting time i've had as an oiler fan.

Even if we don't get in, it feels nice to be competitive again, i just hope they can carry it into next year.

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04-06-2013, 01:01 AM
  #302
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Don't forget Minnesota. They are 5 points ahead of us but at least we have 2 games left against them. If we win both, we will give ourselves a chance.

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04-06-2013, 01:07 AM
  #303
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Don't forget Minnesota. They are 5 points ahead of us but at least we have 2 games left against them. If we win both, we will give ourselves a chance.

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04-06-2013, 01:18 AM
  #304
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Yablo21, I would say its more like this:

Tough teams
St Louis
San Jose + Chicago back-2-back,
Vancouver

Middle Ground
Nashville X2
Phoenix
Dallas

Muffins
Calgary

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Old
04-06-2013, 10:53 AM
  #305
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We're in big trouble...and while I'll be disappointed in not making the playoffs, I'm definitely NOT disappointed in this team. To be this close, this late in the season, is where I was hoping we'd be (realistically).

If they play hard the rest of the way, I'll call the season a success.

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04-06-2013, 10:57 AM
  #306
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anybody have an idea what point pace St.Louis Detroit, SJ are on?

also, maybe Minny is the team to watch...two 4-point games against them

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04-06-2013, 11:16 AM
  #307
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If they don't win today... basically have the same chance as a crystallized ball of H2O in a very hot place.

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Old
04-06-2013, 11:24 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
anybody have an idea what point pace St.Louis Detroit, SJ are on?

also, maybe Minny is the team to watch...two 4-point games against them
Good site for point forecasts...

http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Canucks, Kings, Sharks all on pace for ~58
Wild ~57
Blues ~56
Wings ~54
Oilers ~51


Oilers likely won't have the tiebreaker vs teams above them so right now looking like they'll need 55+ pts to have a shot at getting in. That's 16 pts in 11 games.

Lose today and they'd need 16 pts in their final 10 games. Lose the next 2 versus both the Kings and Ducks and they'd basically have to win out until the end.

It goes from slim hope to no hope in a hurry.

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Old
04-06-2013, 11:45 AM
  #309
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they have about as much chance as a lower seed going down 2-0 in a playoff series. if they lose today, it's like being down 3-0.

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04-06-2013, 11:48 AM
  #310
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they have about as much chance as a lower seed going down 2-0 in a playoff series. if they lose today, it's like being down 3-0.
Great analogy. Not out of it, but almost impossible odds if we lose today.

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04-06-2013, 12:11 PM
  #311
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Never tell me the odds!

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04-06-2013, 12:13 PM
  #312
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Never tell me the odds!
Take it easy Han!

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04-06-2013, 12:19 PM
  #313
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The 5 game win streak was juuuuuust enough to give us a fleeting moment where we were able to ask some fun questions.

Personally...it wasn't nearly enough. I'm hoping they can start another streak today and keep the buzz going right through until the end of the schedule.

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04-06-2013, 12:41 PM
  #314
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Well they definitely needed a 5 game win streak. Anything less and playoffs wouldn't even be a conversation now.

For most of the season I get the feeling fans and management/coaching as well were basically happy with "points" in a game... getting to OT and preserving a pt was regarded as a victory.

Problem is that basically shoots for mediocrity. I think it's critical to play for the win and nothing but a win.

I think this stretch where they know every game is a must win is actually good for the players. It makes the coach go for the win every game because single pts simply don't help... you spin in place and lose time which kills any chance.

Hopefully they play next year with that attitude to go for the throat in every game right from the start. It's a mindset that the players and coaching needs to instill in themselves and I don't think that was there early this season.

Inexperience, lack of veteran leadership, "defensive" coaching... whatever the reasons, the team has to get that killer attitude every game that win or lose they EXPECTED to win and were going for the victory for 60 minutes.

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04-06-2013, 12:48 PM
  #315
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Out of our last 11 games we must win against Minny x2, Calgary, Colorado and Phoenix. Then if we go 2-2-2 against Anaheim, Chicago and Vancouver we might be able to sneak in at the expense of Minny.

Detroit and San Jose are to experienced to catch at this time of the year and St. Louis is a very good team with games at hand.

If we lose once to Minny we might as well kiss the playoffs goodbye.

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04-06-2013, 01:22 PM
  #316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Well they definitely needed a 5 game win streak. Anything less and playoffs wouldn't even be a conversation now.

For most of the season I get the feeling fans and management/coaching as well were basically happy with "points" in a game... getting to OT and preserving a pt was regarded as a victory.

Problem is that basically shoots for mediocrity. I think it's critical to play for the win and nothing but a win.

I think this stretch where they know every game is a must win is actually good for the players. It makes the coach go for the win every game because single pts simply don't help... you spin in place and lose time which kills any chance.

Hopefully they play next year with that attitude to go for the throat in every game right from the start. It's a mindset that the players and coaching needs to instill in themselves and I don't think that was there early this season.

Inexperience, lack of veteran leadership, "defensive" coaching... whatever the reasons, the team has to get that killer attitude every game that win or lose they EXPECTED to win and were going for the victory for 60 minutes.
agreed. especially from the coaching staff and management. they were trying to be respectable.... wanting important games late in the season.... this is an admission that you are not making the playoffs. and Tambo's managerial stagnation reflected this.

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Old
04-06-2013, 02:00 PM
  #317
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April 5th:
TeamOppResult
ANA
COL

San Jose is pretty much uncatchable now.
Yeah that didn't go well.

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Old
04-06-2013, 02:03 PM
  #318
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
Last updated April 6 (morning), removed Nashville as they fell more than 4 points back, added Minnesota as they're falling:
RankTeamGRWLOTPointsMax Points
511211334567
611211424466
712201424266
810191454363
911161473961
1011161563860
1110161573959
1211171733759

Oilers current odds: 24.6% (as of Apr 6) according to Sports Club Stats. Please note that this calculation is simulation based, not mathematically based.
Updated before April 6th games... it's basically just a race to catch Detroit now.


Last edited by stratedge: 04-06-2013 at 02:15 PM.
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04-06-2013, 02:04 PM
  #319
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Yikes, not looking good.

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Old
04-06-2013, 02:07 PM
  #320
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Official .gif of this playoff push right here.

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Old
04-06-2013, 02:11 PM
  #321
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April 6th:
TeamOppResult
 
COL 

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04-06-2013, 05:24 PM
  #322
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Ok i'm ready to call this one a loss.
So are we done here, 10 games left we need what like 8 wins

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04-06-2013, 05:35 PM
  #323
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Old
04-06-2013, 06:01 PM
  #324
stratedge
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Thread's dead, baby. Thread's dead.

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04-06-2013, 06:04 PM
  #325
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Well, wipe my ass and call me Susanne!!! We ain't done yet!

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