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Ilya Kovalchuk vs Patrick Kane

View Poll Results: Who would you rather have?
Ilya Kovalchuk 221 64.06%
Patrick Kane 124 35.94%
Voters: 345. You may not vote on this poll

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04-06-2013, 02:37 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
How about the aggregate of the last three seasons?
Sure, let's take the career low of Kovalchuk and the career high of Kane and compare them. Nothing can go wrong! We already have the career low of Kane in there, so let's include the career high of Kovalchuk to be fair.

Why not take their actual careers? Why not take who's been the better offensive player every single year bar two?

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04-06-2013, 02:38 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
Sure, let's take the career low of Kovalchuk and the career high of Kane and compare them. Nothing can go wrong!

Why not take their actual careers?
Because scoring was inflated in 05-06 and 06-07 when Kane was 15-17 years old? Kovalchuk's not going to score 50 goals again.

So you want to compare prime Kovalchuk vs. Rookie Kane to make your point? Ok? You sure that makes sense?

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04-06-2013, 02:38 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by madgoat33 View Post
For his career Kane has averaged about 8 corsi relative, sharp even higher, yet this year with bolland as their C, both of them are way negative. Dave Bolland historically averages about a -10 corsi relative and is also -25 this year despite playing the lion's share of his minutes with kane. Bolland has looked like crap, is producing like crap and its perfectly reasonable that he's dragging his line down.
Would probably be a bad time to point out that Kovalchuk tore up the league with Thorburn and Reasoner

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04-06-2013, 02:43 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Because scoring was inflated in 05-06 and 06-07 when Kane was 15-17 years old? Kovalchuk's not going to score 50 goals again.

So you want to compare prime Kovalchuk vs. Rookie Kane to make your point? Ok? You sure that makes sense?
You want to compare the offensive albatross of the 2010-2011 New Jersey Devils (171 GF) to a team who had a top 5 offense that year (252 GF)...

Kovalchuk has outproduced Kane every single year bar one and a half. And yes, I'm comparing prime Kovalchuk to a young Kane. I'm not sure why people complain about that. This thread is comparing them both NOW. Not who will be better years from now, who is better NOW.

I have no arguments as to who will be better in 3-4 years. Kane, easily. But given that Kovalchuk is in the prime of his career and given what we've seen from him, he's better than Kane who hasn't entered his prime yet.

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04-06-2013, 02:46 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
How about the aggregate of the last three seasons?
U mean when kovy went to a defensive minded nj and began to concentrate on his defensive game? Not to mention that one of those seasons was when Maclean was the head coach and the team averaged under 2 goals a game. Real impressive.

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04-06-2013, 02:50 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Because scoring was inflated in 05-06 and 06-07 when Kane was 15-17 years old? Kovalchuk's not going to score 50 goals again.

So you want to compare prime Kovalchuk vs. Rookie Kane to make your point? Ok? You sure that makes sense?
The comparison was just made about Kane's best years vs kovys career low years. So his comparison is a fair argument if ur gonna bring up those seasons.

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04-06-2013, 02:52 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
You want to compare the offensive albatross of the 2010-2011 New Jersey Devils (171 GF) to a team who had a top 5 offense that year (252 GF)...

Kovalchuk has outproduced Kane every single year bar one and a half. And yes, I'm comparing prime Kovalchuk to a young Kane. I'm not sure why people complain about that. This thread is comparing them both NOW. Not who will be better years from now, who is better NOW.

I have no arguments as to who will be better in 3-4 years. Kane, easily. But given that Kovalchuk is in the prime of his career and given what we've seen from him, he's better than Kane who hasn't entered his prime yet.
Because if we're talking about them "right now" then talking about Kane when he was 18 years old is stupid. He's 24 now and clearly entering/in the prime of his offensive production. He's already won a Stanley Cup, been a 3 time all star (every season there has been an All Star game since 09), was a 1st team All Star at RW, won a silver medal, was the Rookie of the Year...

At what point can we admit that a young player has at the very least equalled if not surpassed an older player?

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04-06-2013, 02:55 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by lboogie42 View Post
The comparison was just made about Kane's best years vs kovys career low years. So his comparison is a fair argument if ur gonna bring up those seasons.
If his three lowest years are the three most recent years then that is a sign that this may just be his new career norm. Until we see him score over 90 points again, it is absurd to say that he is still that kind of offensive producer.

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04-06-2013, 03:01 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Would probably be a bad time to point out that Kovalchuk tore up the league with Thorburn and Reasoner
yea and kane has produced with guys who aren't a lot of the year. that post was about his corsi, not production...

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04-06-2013, 03:12 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
I answered the question, you just chose to ignore it. You did ignore my question though

If Chris Kunitz puts up the same number of points year in and year out, he's going to be known as a top player in this league with or without Crosby.

Is James Neal not known as a top goal scorer? Same effect, different superstar.

Back to my original point, one season does not make a player better offensively.
You didn't answer the question because you keep trying to deflect it onto some hypothetical Chris Kunitz three years in the future who might never exist.

James Neal was considered a good goal scorer before Malkin, great one after. Funny what skating with the second best player in the world will do to your point totals. Though how that's relevant to Patrick Kane is a complete mystery to me.

Fact is that Patrick Kane is benefiting from none of his regular linemates this season and every statistical measure of hockey bears that out. The eye test does too.

Even for all of the talk about Kane's negative relative Corsi, Kane's is still enormously better than his linemates'.

Behind the Net has Kovy's even strength relative Corsi at -8.3, compared to Zajac and Poni's +2.8 and +3.5 respectively.

Then you see Kane's -16.3 next to Bolland's -25.8 and Hayes' -29.8 and you can get a pretty clear picture of who's playing with the better linemates in terms of puck possession this season. Sharp's been injured for the past 12 games, so his relative Corsi is still entirely from the record-setting point streak, but even his -11.4 looks ridiculously bad next to Zajac's and Poni's.

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04-06-2013, 03:21 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by madgoat33 View Post
For his career Kane has averaged about 8 corsi relative, sharp even higher, yet this year with bolland as their C, both of them are way negative. Dave Bolland historically averages about a -10 corsi relative and is also -25 this year despite playing the lion's share of his minutes with kane. Bolland has looked like crap, is producing like crap and its perfectly reasonable that he's dragging his line down.
You're the one who brought up meaningless stats to downplay Kovalchuk. Don't complain. Corsi are more reliable stats at least.

And Kane has outproduced Kovy for 27 games ? Big deal.

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04-06-2013, 03:22 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Because if we're talking about them "right now" then talking about Kane when he was 18 years old is stupid. He's 24 now and clearly entering/in the prime of his offensive production. He's already won a Stanley Cup, been a 3 time all star (every season there has been an All Star game since 09), was a 1st team All Star at RW, won a silver medal, was the Rookie of the Year...

At what point can we admit that a young player has at the very least equalled if not surpassed an older player?
When he puts up similar/better numbers over a period of 2-3 years. Not one year broken up by another year with half a year following. We also have no clue if this is the prime of Kane's career. He can peak higher than this. He can be having a career year right now and will never hit this PPG again.. we need more games to determine that. We don't with Kovalchuk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
If his three lowest years are the three most recent years then that is a sign that this may just be his new career norm. Until we see him score over 90 points again, it is absurd to say that he is still that kind of offensive producer.
Except that's not the case. 85 points, 60 points, 83 points. One career low, two other seasons much closer to his career average.

He may not be a 90 point player (I wouldn't call him that until he hits that mark again), but he's still better than a PPG player while playing a significant role on the PK.

I don't get how you are so quick to determine that Kane's 35+ games this season dictates his new career norm but you need 3 seasons of Kovalchuk's to determine what his new career norm is..

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04-06-2013, 03:25 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
You didn't answer the question because you keep trying to deflect it onto some hypothetical Chris Kunitz three years in the future who might never exist.

James Neal was considered a good goal scorer before Malkin, great one after. Funny what skating with the second best player in the world will do to your point totals. Though how that's relevant to Patrick Kane is a complete mystery to me.

Fact is that Patrick Kane is benefiting from none of his regular linemates this season and every statistical measure of hockey bears that out. The eye test does too.

Even for all of the talk about Kane's negative relative Corsi, Kane's is still enormously better than his linemates'.

Behind the Net has Kovy's even strength relative Corsi at -8.3, compared to Zajac and Poni's +2.8 and +3.5 respectively.

Then you see Kane's -16.3 next to Bolland's -25.8 and Hayes' -29.8 and you can get a pretty clear picture of who's playing with the better linemates in terms of puck possession this season. Sharp's been injured for the past 12 games, so his relative Corsi is still entirely from the record-setting point streak, but even his -11.4 looks ridiculously bad next to Zajac's and Poni's.
Unfortunately for Kovalchuk, the eye test doesn't seem to carry over to the Devils. Not to mention, he's had different linemates almost every other game this season and hadn't played with Zajac for 15+ games before his injury. Only recently has Zajac started playing better.

So Sharp's corsi rel benefited from a record-setting point streak but none of Kane's stats (advanced or not) did? I mean, go look at his game logs... he had a ridiculous amount of points to start the season and has since cooled. Still putting up near/at a PPG but not the rate he was going at when the Hawks where playing lights out hockey.

EDIT: Obviously my original example with Kunitz was hyperbole, not sure how you still haven't picked that up. Still waiting to hear how one year of outproducing a player offensively suddenly means they will be outproducing them for the rest of their careers. I mean, it didn't work two years ago when Kane put up more points than Kovalchuk..

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04-06-2013, 03:31 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
If his three lowest years are the three most recent years then that is a sign that this may just be his new career norm. Until we see him score over 90 points again, it is absurd to say that he is still that kind of offensive producer.
Ok and Kovy had what? 82 or 83 points in 77 games last year. Say he played all 82 games and he'd prolly be over 90 points. And if that's his new career norm I am absolutely fine with that. If he can put up 80+ points while playing solid defense(his defense is better then Kane's as well) say what u want but there isn't much to put a player like that down.


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04-06-2013, 03:39 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
Unfortunately for Kovalchuk, the eye test doesn't seem to carry over to the Devils. Not to mention, he's had different linemates almost every other game this season and hadn't played with Zajac for 15+ games before his injury. Only recently has Zajac started playing better.

So Sharp's corsi rel benefited from a record-setting point streak but none of Kane's stats (advanced or not) did? I mean, go look at his game logs... he had a ridiculous amount of points to start the season and has since cooled. Still putting up near/at a PPG but not the rate he was going at when the Hawks where playing lights out hockey.
Where did I say that someone's Corsi didn't benefit from the streak? What I said was that Sharp's still entirely from the streak and hasn't been affected by the cooling off that came afterwards. The point streak ended the first game after Sharp got injured.

As for Kane's points since the streak ended -- which is entirely different from Corsi, but okay -- if 17 points in 12 games (1.42 PPG) is how you define cooling off, you must be watching a completely different hockey league than the NHL. Especially since before that he was scoring at 1.125 PPG.

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04-06-2013, 03:40 PM
  #116
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Also, Kane has only had over 88 points once. Now he's lighting it up in shortened season and people think he surpasses Kovy offensively. Just foolish. If this was a full season I am far from convinced that Kane could keep up this type of stellar play.


And the line mate argument is bogus. Kovy was playing with bums for most of his career on a worse team in Atlanta. And he put up more points then Kane has at his age who is playing on the best team in the league.

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04-06-2013, 03:47 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
Unfortunately for Kovalchuk, the eye test doesn't seem to carry over to the Devils. Not to mention, he's had different linemates almost every other game this season and hadn't played with Zajac for 15+ games before his injury. Only recently has Zajac started playing better.

So Sharp's corsi rel benefited from a record-setting point streak but none of Kane's stats (advanced or not) did? I mean, go look at his game logs... he had a ridiculous amount of points to start the season and has since cooled. Still putting up near/at a PPG but not the rate he was going at when the Hawks where playing lights out hockey.

EDIT: Obviously my original example with Kunitz was hyperbole, not sure how you still haven't picked that up. Still waiting to hear how one year of outproducing a player offensively suddenly means they will be outproducing them for the rest of their careers. I mean, it didn't work two years ago when Kane put up more points than Kovalchuk..
But Kovalchuk put up more points last year, so therefore he is better.

Whatever you say. Fact, over the last three seasons 10-11, 11-12, 12-13 Kane has outproduced Kovalchuk. That includes a season that was really bad for Kovalchuk and one that was really bad for Kane. Yeah, Kovalchuk was better before that when Kane was just entering the League. Cool. But as of RIGHT NOW, Kane is at least as good if not better.

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04-06-2013, 03:50 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
EDIT: Obviously my original example with Kunitz was hyperbole, not sure how you still haven't picked that up. Still waiting to hear how one year of outproducing a player offensively suddenly means they will be outproducing them for the rest of their careers. I mean, it didn't work two years ago when Kane put up more points than Kovalchuk..
Obviously I was pointing out that your hyperbole was ridiculous.

And seriously, Kane outproduces Kovy two years ago as well as this year, while being five years younger and entering the statistically highest-scoring years of a player's career just as Kovy is starting to leave that age range, and you don't understand how people could argue that Kane's better offensively both now and going forward?

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04-06-2013, 03:59 PM
  #119
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Obviously I was pointing out that your hyperbole was ridiculous.

And seriously, Kane outproduces Kovy two years ago as well as this year, while being five years younger and entering the statistically highest-scoring years of a player's career just as Kovy is starting to leave that age range, and you don't understand how people could argue that Kane's better offensively both now and going forward?
Thing is, the whole team struggled when Kane out produced Kovy. That's like saying that crawford is better then brodeur because he had better numbers on certain seasons when the devils were struggling. When teams struggle, players struggle obviously. So when Kane produces more then Kovy when his team as a whole is struggling, it's not very impressive. Not to mention that Kane was on the far better team both of those seasons.

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04-06-2013, 04:42 PM
  #120
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Love both but Kane cause he's younger.

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04-06-2013, 04:43 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
Obviously I was pointing out that your hyperbole was ridiculous.

And seriously, Kane outproduces Kovy two years ago as well as this year, while being five years younger and entering the statistically highest-scoring years of a player's career just as Kovy is starting to leave that age range, and you don't understand how people could argue that Kane's better offensively both now and going forward?
Yea, I have a problem with people piecing together select years of the past few seasons and making any claims, especially without considering context (mind you, the Kunitz example fits perfectly here).

Until Kane outproduces Kovy consistently (not two years ago and in half a season), I'm going to go with the guy who's consistently put up numbers that Kane has only ever hit ONCE before (4 years ago) as recently as last year.

Your point about primes is irrelevant because players past their 'prime' ages can still produce (see: Elias). You can't just assume that one player in his prime will outproduce another player outside of his prime. Kind of have to establish what each player will do in their new age range by seeing it for a consistent amount of time before judging anything.

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04-06-2013, 04:45 PM
  #122
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Kovalchuk. Just so dynamic offensively. Plus a pain in the ass to defend in Nhl 13. lol

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04-06-2013, 04:49 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
Where did I say that someone's Corsi didn't benefit from the streak? What I said was that Sharp's still entirely from the streak and hasn't been affected by the cooling off that came afterwards. The point streak ended the first game after Sharp got injured.

As for Kane's points since the streak ended -- which is entirely different from Corsi, but okay -- if 17 points in 12 games (1.42 PPG) is how you define cooling off, you must be watching a completely different hockey league than the NHL. Especially since before that he was scoring at 1.125 PPG.
I'm talking 26 points in 26 games.. why's the cutoff at 12 games which includes 9 points in 3 games and a not as impressive 8 points in the other 9.

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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
But Kovalchuk put up more points last year, so therefore he is better.

Whatever you say. Fact, over the last three seasons 10-11, 11-12, 12-13 Kane has outproduced Kovalchuk. That includes a season that was really bad for Kovalchuk and one that was really bad for Kane. Yeah, Kovalchuk was better before that when Kane was just entering the League. Cool. But as of RIGHT NOW, Kane is at least as good if not better.
That's not what I said at all, but feel free to interpret that way.

Let's take a deeper look at the past three seasons, just to see how absurdly bad Kovalchuk's season was in 2010 and how absurdly good Kane's season was in 2010. Absurd as in significantly different than their career averages.

Kane's point totals: 72 70 88 73 66
Average: 73.8
Standard Deviation: 8.4
Kane's career high season was 1.7 SDs higher than his average.
Kane's career low season was .93 SDs lower than his average.
His career high is more of an aberration than his career low. He's closer to the 66 point mark than the 88 point mark.

Kovalchuk's point totals: 98 76 87 91 85 60 83
Average: 82.9
Standard Deviation: 12.2
Kovalchuk's career high season was 1.24 SDs higher than his average.
Kovalchuk's career low season was 1.88 SDs lower than his average.
His career low is more of an aberration than his career high. He's closer to the 98 point mark than the 60 point mark.

Any statistical argument would weigh both these seasons less significantly as they are near outliers at this point in both careers. Again, that's what we're talking about. This point in both careers.

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04-06-2013, 04:50 PM
  #124
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Kovy has a bigger heart, excellent two player.

Kane still needs to prove himself to be at his league.

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04-06-2013, 04:57 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
I'm talking 26 points in 26 games.. why's the cutoff at 12 games which includes 9 points in 3 games and a not as impressive 8 points in the other 9.



That's not what I said at all, but feel free to interpret that way.

Let's take a deeper look at the past three seasons, just to see how absurdly bad Kovalchuk's season was in 2010 and how absurdly good Kane's season was in 2010. Absurd as in significantly different than their career averages.

Kane's point totals: 72 70 88 73 66
Average: 73.8
Standard Deviation: 8.4
Kane's career high season was 1.7 SDs higher than his average.
Kane's career low season was .93 SDs lower than his average.
His career high is more of an aberration than his career low. He's closer to the 66 point mark than the 88 point mark.

Kovalchuk's point totals: 98 76 87 91 85 60 83
Average: 82.9
Standard Deviation: 12.2
Kovalchuk's career high season was 1.24 SDs higher than his average.
Kovalchuk's career low season was 1.88 SDs lower than his average.
His career low is more of an aberration than his career high. He's closer to the 98 point mark than the 60 point mark.

Any statistical argument would weigh both these seasons less significantly as they are near outliers at this point in both careers. Again, that's what we're talking about. This point in both careers.
You're insufferable. After Kane's 88 point season he had 73 in 73. Pretty close. Last season wasn't too good but he's back to over PPG this year which you conveniently ignore. The last three seasons argument for which Kane has outproduced Kovalchuk doesn't even include his 88 point season.

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