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Will the Flyers Make the 2013 Playoffs

View Poll Results: Will the Flyers Make the 2013 Playoffs
No (Habemus Crapum!) 159 83.25%
Yes (Flyers magna sunt!) 32 16.75%
Voters: 191. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-05-2013, 05:52 AM
  #101
nevermore
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
If our record over the next 11 games is the same as in our last 11 there is over 50% chance of making them. 6-3-2.
And a 7-3-1 puts them at over 80%.
Considering they struggle away from home, having 3 of their 6 road games against Winnipeg, Carolina, and Buffalo could come in handy. And with a bit of luck Ottawa won't have anything to play for in Game 48.

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04-05-2013, 08:54 AM
  #102
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Also didn't realize that with the SE being so terrible the Jets went from 3rd to 9th last night. Saturday's game means a lot more now. Better be ready to take it to Winnipeg as much as I'd love to see them make the playoffs for once, they can still win their division.

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04-05-2013, 10:38 AM
  #103
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Wow, just wow. Even as an admitted tank advocate, I am surprised. Like the real Flyer teams of yore, they just do not give up. Where was this determination all year?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...ladelphia.html

Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 5-3, playoff odds up 11.7 to 25.5%

This is up from about 5 or 6% last week.....but it's still not going to be easy to pass NYI, NJ and Winn/Wash for the final spot. But it's possible.

Let's Go Flyers!

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04-05-2013, 10:48 AM
  #104
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I don't want to get in and beat the Penguins.

I want to get it on the last day with a shootout vs the Sens where the Rangers also lose the #8 on a shootout on the same day then beat the Pens in Rd. 1

I kinda wished we played the Rags last again.
I was at that shoot out game against the rags. Unreal top 3 game for me.

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04-05-2013, 10:50 AM
  #105
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And a 7-3-1 puts them at over 80%.
Considering they struggle away from home, having 3 of their 6 road games against Winnipeg, Carolina, and Buffalo could come in handy. And with a bit of luck Ottawa won't have anything to play for in Game 48.
That seems doable. Will be tough with alllll the injuries but the kids look they are here to play!

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04-05-2013, 11:09 AM
  #106
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The right guys are starting to heat up even with the injuries piling up. With the exception of the 3rd last night the D looked pretty solid again. (We need kimmo however he is one guy that can't miss much)

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04-05-2013, 11:18 AM
  #107
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This team is bipolar...but it is not really surprising what hard work and confidence can overcome. Ultimately though if they make the playoffs they will need a lot more including healthy bodies and top notch goaltending...

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04-05-2013, 11:24 AM
  #108
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Wow, just wow. Even as an admitted tank advocate, I am surprised. Like the real Flyer teams of yore, they just do not give up.
And unlike the Flyers fans, it seems
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Let's Go Flyers!
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Where was this determination all year?

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04-05-2013, 11:40 AM
  #109
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Pittsburgh and Ottawa win tonight and our odds of making the playoffs go up another 1.5% to 27%!

Though not sure I can ever support the Pens, even against the Rags... I at least respect the Rangers organisation.

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04-05-2013, 11:44 AM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheKingPin View Post
I was at that shoot out game against the rags. Unreal top 3 game for me.
Me too. I was living in Central PA at the time and was stuck in traffic heading to the game. Decided to cut through Conshohocken to avoid the parking lot that was the Skyuchill Expressway that day heading East. Got stuck at just about every light on the way. Missed the first period, but heard the ****ing Jody Shelley goal and was convinced at that point that the Flyers were going to lose 1-0 becuase of Jody ****ing Shelley. Sat through the second period and watched Lundqvist stand on his head, only making me even more infuriated. Then the third period came. What a finish!

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04-05-2013, 12:07 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Me too. I was living in Central PA at the time and was stuck in traffic heading to the game. Decided to cut through Conshohocken to avoid the parking lot that was the Skyuchill Expressway that day heading East. Got stuck at just about every light on the way. Missed the first period, but heard the ****ing Jody Shelley goal and was convinced at that point that the Flyers were going to lose 1-0 becuase of Jody ****ing Shelley. Sat through the second period and watched Lundqvist stand on his head, only making me even more infuriated. Then the third period came. What a finish!
It was simply amazing. A team that blows in the SO against the neat goalie in the world and several snipers. The place was going crazy, living and dying with each play. No way we tank. Like I said 4 games ago if we win 5 straight we might be in a playoff spot. With a rags loss that might actually happen. Even if we get steamrolled which we won't playoff experience is so important for the young core. Got to keep pushing.

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04-05-2013, 09:02 PM
  #112
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Odds slightly down to 25.3%.

If us, Tampa, Toronto, Carolina and Florida win the odds go up by 14.4%!

If only we win and all the others lose go up by 3.9%. Just have to keep winning baby!

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04-06-2013, 08:38 AM
  #113
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The 3pt games are going to be tough to factor in. Because of only in-conference play and the Pens dominance, it's interesting that only 6 teams in the East actually have a true winning record when you take an OTL as a loss. In the West all 8 playoff teams have winning records.

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04-06-2013, 09:26 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Pittsburgh and Ottawa win tonight and our odds of making the playoffs go up another 1.5% to 27%!

Though not sure I can ever support the Pens, even against the Rags... I at least respect the Rangers organisation.
i was going for buffalo i think we have a good chance to catch the sens we play them 2 more times

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04-06-2013, 08:27 PM
  #115
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UGH, all the wrong teams are winning today..

sigh..

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04-06-2013, 09:15 PM
  #116
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UGH, all the wrong teams are winning today..

sigh..
Now five points out of eighth.

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04-06-2013, 09:25 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan4life View Post
UGH, all the wrong teams are winning today..

sigh..
Yeah usually when you're counting on other teams it doesn't go your way. Like another poster said we just have to keep winning if we want to get in.

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04-06-2013, 09:26 PM
  #118
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Just stop these silly winning streaks, they're blowing our lottery position. Today's game vs the Jets was a step in the right direction.

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04-06-2013, 09:30 PM
  #119
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Just stop these silly winning streaks, they're blowing our lottery position. Today's game vs the Jets was a step in the right direction.
If they hadn't won those 4 straight games, we would have been tied for last in points. Not saying I wanted them to lose them, just pointing it out

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04-06-2013, 09:31 PM
  #120
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The winning streak was an anomaly ....

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04-06-2013, 09:35 PM
  #121
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I watch teams like Colorado and Calagry and realize the whole top pick thing was never realistic anyway. These teams are terribad.

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04-06-2013, 09:44 PM
  #122
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I watch teams like Colorado and Calagry and realize the whole top pick thing was never realistic anyway. These teams are terribad.
FLA, COL, and CGY will almost certainly finish 28-30 in some order.

Still, finishing 4th from the bottom is nothing to sneeze at. 10.7 percent chance at #1 overall, and 58 percent chance at staying at #4 (teams 1-3 win the lottery). Maybe you don't get one of the big three, but you get first pick of the rest.

Really the worst cast scenario is the classic Calgary spot--somewhere around 11-14. There are still better options there than most years, and maybe someone slides, but if we aren't going to make the playoffs, it would be nice to know there's going to be a decent consolation prize.

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04-06-2013, 09:57 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
Wow, just wow. Even as an admitted tank advocate, I am surprised. Like the real Flyer teams of yore, they just do not give up. Where was this determination all year?

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/E...ladelphia.html

Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances

Beat Toronto 5-3, playoff odds up 11.7 to 25.5%

This is up from about 5 or 6% last week.....but it's still not going to be easy to pass NYI, NJ and Winn/Wash for the final spot. But it's possible.

Let's Go Flyers!
and this is why people putting so much stock in probabilistic stats is silly and as a whole pretty meaningless.

Not being able to qualify for the playoffs being a 0% probability and being seeded already being a 100% probability (barring extreme circumstances) are the only times they are definitely meaningful.

I mean yeah they do provide SOME info but not a lot, especially in a short-season.

When your probability to do something can vary by 5x in a matter of days... this says how useless it is as an indicator. It's still interesting to see though but some people (not saying you) do place -too- much importance on them.

Now if someone develops a stat system that analyzes the physical and mental state to a precision not medically possible yet including projections forward as to likelihood of attitudes, injury potentials, risk taking, likelihood to drink or not or focus hard, etc. for all coaches and players then maybe it starts to have a little bit of predictor power.

I would say anything below 50% is simply 'unlikely' anything above 50% is 'likely' but really you can switch to 20% to 45% or 85% to 60% easily. Injuries, effort, momentum, whatever.

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04-06-2013, 10:00 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by OccupySouthBroadSt View Post
This team is bipolar...but it is not really surprising what hard work and confidence can overcome. Ultimately though if they make the playoffs they will need a lot more including healthy bodies and top notch goaltending...
Don't forget too that an injection of new faces or call-ups to fill in for injured players can often have a (short-term) boost in a team's performance & work ethic which can be contagious around the whole locker room and the more elite players as well. However this boost and high achievement from these newer depth faces or call-ups generally don't last long-term - part of the reason they're only call-ups in the first place.

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04-06-2013, 11:16 PM
  #125
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Don't forget too that an injection of new faces or call-ups to fill in for injured players can often have a (short-term) boost in a team's performance & work ethic which can be contagious around the whole locker room and the more elite players as well. However this boost and high achievement from these newer depth faces or call-ups generally don't last long-term - part of the reason they're only call-ups in the first place.
Definitely agree....it's like a cortisone shot....helps mask the symptoms but the "disease" still exists.

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