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2013 Draft Discussion Part 2

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Old
04-07-2013, 01:41 AM
  #151
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We L.A. Kings fans are rooting for you guys to make the playoffs!! We want your 3rd-round pick in 2013 instead of the 4th-rounder for Simon Gagne deal! Go Flyers Go!!!!

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04-07-2013, 01:49 AM
  #152
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We L.A. Kings fans are rooting for you guys to make the playoffs!! We want your 3rd-round pick in 2013 instead of the 4th-rounder for Simon Gagne deal! Go Flyers Go!!!!
I wouldn't get my hopes up if I were you

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04-07-2013, 09:45 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
I like Samuel Morin from the Q. He played pretty well that game from what I can remember.
Yeah. He's a big guy who can skate pretty well. Not much offense at the moment, but he can handle the puck a bit. Doesn't fight much, but his first 2 fights in the Q were KO's. He's pretty much what we hope Lauridsen can be, but with a much higher ceiling. A guy of his size and skating, I can see fitting into the backend of the first round.

Then you're looking at

Bowey
Theodore
Mueller
Subban
Bigras
Kostalek

Hartman
Petan
Zykov
Duclair
Dauphin
Bailey
Bjorkstrand
Carrier
Sorenson

And then every goalie not named Fucale

Now obviously these are bubble guys so some are going to play their way into round 1. Just gives you the idea of the depth in this draft. And this is just CHL guys. When you add in the USNTDP guy's and Euros, it shows its depth even more. Makes me wish we could have squeezed another pick or two in a trade.

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04-07-2013, 11:52 AM
  #154
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Finally got around to watching the CHL Top prospects game that's been sitting in my DVR and I must say, there's going to be some nice names still on the board in the second round.
A few guys who will probably still be around in the second/third rounds that I like:

Jackson Houck
Greg Chase
Zach Nastasiuk

Gritty, hardworking players who I think are fairly safe bets to make it to the NHL.

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04-07-2013, 12:04 PM
  #155
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Hey Gator, where would you rate Jimmy Lodge?

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04-07-2013, 12:27 PM
  #156
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Hey Gator, where would you rate Jimmy Lodge?
Haven't seen him play yet. If I had to guess I'd say 2-3 round.

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04-07-2013, 01:57 PM
  #157
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Anyone else have a strong feeling there is no chance in hell we draft a defensemen with a 1st round pick? IMO the only way we do is if we somehow have a shot at landing Jones. Otherwise we will be drafting a forward. And most likely a Center, if not trading the pick away, which IMO is the only way we get a defensemen.

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04-07-2013, 05:34 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Haven't seen him play yet. If I had to guess I'd say 2-3 round.
I've seen people say early second round possibly sneaking into the late first round. The only knock on him is he's pretty soft. He shy's away from the dirty areas.

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04-07-2013, 05:36 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
Yeah. He's a big guy who can skate pretty well. Not much offense at the moment, but he can handle the puck a bit. Doesn't fight much, but his first 2 fights in the Q were KO's. He's pretty much what we hope Lauridsen can be, but with a much higher ceiling. A guy of his size and skating, I can see fitting into the backend of the first round.

Then you're looking at

Bowey
Theodore
Mueller
Subban
Bigras
Kostalek

Hartman
Petan
Zykov
Duclair
Dauphin
Bailey
Bjorkstrand
Carrier
Sorenson

And then every goalie not named Fucale

Now obviously these are bubble guys so some are going to play their way into round 1. Just gives you the idea of the depth in this draft. And this is just CHL guys. When you add in the USNTDP guy's and Euros, it shows its depth even more. Makes me wish we could have squeezed another pick or two in a trade.
I think we'll be picking late inside the top 10. I'm pretty confident will come away with some nice players with our first 2 picks assuming we don't trade them.

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04-09-2013, 04:26 AM
  #160
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Standing as of April 9th.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/standings/

It looks like the Flyers have no shot of Top 5 anymore as Colorado. Calgary, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina look like pretty much locks for those spots. A win tonight by the Flyers could put them in a tie with 3 other teams in the 8-11 range.

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04-09-2013, 07:25 AM
  #161
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Carolina has imploded.

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04-09-2013, 08:02 AM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Psuhockey View Post
Standing as of April 9th.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/standings/

It looks like the Flyers have no shot of Top 5 anymore as Colorado. Calgary, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina look like pretty much locks for those spots. A win tonight by the Flyers could put them in a tie with 3 other teams in the 8-11 range.
Colorado almost certainly will finish last--three points "behind" with a fairly tricky schedule (ANA, LAK, VAN, CBJ, EDM, STL, STL, PHX, MIN).

Calgary is a bad team, though they probably have a slightly easier schedule, by virtue of having Nashville left, as well as Edmonton. (VAN, PHX, EDM, MIN, DET, ANA, MIN, NSH, STL, CHI).

Florida has the potential to win three or four games down the stretch (WPG, PIT, NYI, NYR, NJD, BOS, NYR, TOR, TB)

If I had to guess, Colorado finishes last, followed by Calgary and Florida.

Florida could conceivable pass Tampa, particular if they win that last game of the year, but Tampa also has games against OTT, BUF, WSH, WPG, and CAR), so as bad as they have been, I don't necessarily think that they will end up 4th from the bottom--they could pretty easily end up with 40+ points.

Carolina is playing poorly with a hard schedule remaining (PIT, WSH, BOS, OTT, WPG, PHI, TB, NYI, NYR, PIT). Unless they score a few upsets, I think they might end up in the 4th slot

Nashville could end up bottom 5 as well.

If I had to guess, as of today, I think the end of the year will end up looking something like this:

30. Colorado - 33 points
29. Calgary - 37 points
28. Florida - 38 points
27. Carolina - 40 points
26. Tampa Bay - 41 points
25. Nashville - 44 points

Flyers, Sabres, Blue Jackets, Stars, Oilers, and Jets will likely follow in some order, so we could be anywhere from 7th to 12th or so. (On the other hand, if the Flyers go like 2-7-1 down the stretch, losing in regulation to both Buffalo and Carolina, they'd likely end up right around 6th spot.)

Finishing 8+ would likely take Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nurse, Lindholm, and Monahan off the board--plus one other player. Nichushkin's a wild card--I could see Tampa taking him, given their recent bias toward Russians.

Worst case scenario for the Flyers would be a top eight of Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Nurse, Lindholm, Monahan, and Ristolainen, leaving Nichushkin as the BPA and someone like Zadorov or Pulock behind him.

At that point, I think you at least consider moving the pick for a more developed prospect, or throw it + Laughton together in a deal for an established top-2 defenseman.


Last edited by Jack de la Hoya: 04-09-2013 at 08:39 AM.
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04-09-2013, 08:14 AM
  #163
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That 4 game winning streak, while it may have been exciting and all, hurt this franchise long-term.

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Old
04-09-2013, 08:17 AM
  #164
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You're not going to get an established top 2 defenseman for our 1st and Laughton. I'd rather take that package and move up to grab Nurse.

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04-09-2013, 08:39 AM
  #165
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
You're not going to get an established top 2 defenseman for our 1st and Laughton. I'd rather take that package and move up to grab Nurse.
Eh, I was thinking Yandle. Maybe he's a 2, maybe he's a 3, but that package might be enough to get PHX's attention. (I think Yandle is a flawed player, and I don't like the idea of moving Couturier for him, but Laughton + 10th or so overall? Maybe.)

I wouldn't move Laughton and a top-10 pick for Nurse. He looks promising, but the bust rate on defenseman is simply too high. If anything, you move a smaller piece to jump up 2 spots and get Ristolainen.

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04-09-2013, 08:57 AM
  #166
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Chris Pryor mentioned Nurse was one of the kids they were keeping an eye on during that interview with Frank S. I believe. If we some how finish around 7-11 I think they might make the move up to get him(it might cost a 3rd if a team isn't playing hard ball to move up 2-3 spots). I'm (and I hope management will be) more willing to draft a couple of young high end defenseman and let them mature. I understand they want to win right now, but if we can get two top 10 picks in 3 years with having one poor season we need to let these kids develop. Button has Robert Hagg dropping down to the second round right around where the Flyers would be picking as well. Holmgren asked Renberg over at the WJ's what he thought about him and had rave reviews. I honestly think if Hagg is there we will take him(Barring someone dropping that the Flyers rank extremely high of course i.e. Couts)

Although it seems unlikely, I think we might draft 2 defenseman with our top 2 picks this year. We desperately need to stock our farm system with defenseman. Defenders also stay in your prospect pool longer because of the their developmental curve. We can afford to draft a few here with this draft and then concentrate on forwards in the next draft.

It would look great having Ghost/Nurse/Hagg in our pool by the beginning of next year. Now do I honestly believe anything I just said will be how management handles the situation, no not at all lol.

I think we will re-visit the Yandle situation in the offseason. Hopefully the price remains too high and the Flyers keep their selections and do it the right way. We need to develop our own kids, and we can't keep affording trading our top young guns and picks for already established defenseman.

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Old
04-09-2013, 09:04 AM
  #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack de la Hoya View Post
Eh, I was thinking Yandle. Maybe he's a 2, maybe he's a 3, but that package might be enough to get PHX's attention. (I think Yandle is a flawed player, and I don't like the idea of moving Couturier for him, but Laughton + 10th or so overall? Maybe.)

I wouldn't move Laughton and a top-10 pick for Nurse. He looks promising, but the bust rate on defenseman is simply too high. If anything, you move a smaller piece to jump up 2 spots and get Ristolainen.
I disagree. Yandle is what he is at the point. He's a borderline #2 defenseman, a #3 on a good team.

Nurse has the potential to be a bonafide top pairing 2-way defenseman. We need to stop trading for products of other teams systems that don't fit anymore and plugging them into our lineup and expect to win cups. Teams who win cups build through the draft an have rosters that grow together. If we expect to ever have a #1 defenseman without gutting the franchise, we need to draft one. No ifs ands or buts.

And ristolainen is good, and probably has a higher floor, but nurse is better.

And I understand that the fail rate of defenseman is high, but the fail rate of defensemen take in the top 5-10 of the draft is actually not as high as people make it out to be. It's actually been quite accurate in recent years. Combine that with the fact that this draft is the deepest in a while, I'm not all that worried about nurse busting.

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04-09-2013, 09:10 AM
  #168
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Unless we win the lottery, I think our first pick is going to be Nurse. I hope our second pick is Jacob De La Rose. Both should be available in the second round. It would be nice to see a guy like Mantha slide into the early second round, but I took some heat for suggesting that as a possibility earlier in the season so I won't say it again.

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04-09-2013, 09:16 AM
  #169
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That 4 game winning streak, while it may have been exciting and all, hurt this franchise long-term.
I don't think we would have bottomed out the way Colorado, Calgary, and Florida have anyways.

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04-09-2013, 09:30 AM
  #170
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
I disagree. Yandle is what he is at the point. He's a borderline #2 defenseman, a #3 on a good team.

Nurse has the potential to be a bonafide top pairing 2-way defenseman. We need to stop trading for products of other teams systems that don't fit anymore and plugging them into our lineup and expect to win cups. Teams who win cups build through the draft an have rosters that grow together. If we expect to ever have a #1 defenseman without gutting the franchise, we need to draft one. No ifs ands or buts.

And ristolainen is good, and probably has a higher floor, but nurse is better.

And I understand that the fail rate of defenseman is high, but the fail rate of defensemen take in the top 5-10 of the draft is actually not as high as people make it out to be. It's actually been quite accurate in recent years. Combine that with the fact that this draft is the deepest in a while, I'm not all that worried about nurse busting.
I'm all for drafting Nurse, for the reasons that you've mentioned. But trading a top 10 pick + Laughton to draft him? I just don't see the value.

I agree with your assessment of Yandle, but more likely than not, Nurse doesn't end up better than Yandle--and certainly not for the next 4-6 years. It is far from certain that Nurse can be developed into a top-pairing defenseman, and even less clear that the Flyers are capable of doing so.

It isn't simply a matter of Nurse "busting"--I could have been clearer there. I'm just not sure his ceiling is really a #1D, and if his ceiling is a good #2, Yandle is the better option, since he is already developed and capable of stepping in and playing a key role next season, rather than 4+ years down the road.

Obviously I'd prefer we not move the pick + Laughton (if Mez had been even halfway decent this year, I'd throw a Laughton + Mez + 2013 2nd offer and hope the Coyotes bite), but if we are, I think it needs to return a surer thing than a promising project.

Yandle-Coburn
Timonen-Schenn
Grossmann-Gus
Gervais

There's no #1 there, but that's a decent defensive corps.


Last edited by Jack de la Hoya: 04-09-2013 at 12:13 PM. Reason: typo
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Old
04-09-2013, 10:55 AM
  #171
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I don't think we would have bottomed out the way Colorado, Calgary, and Florida have anyways.
I don't necessarily think we will either..I think they will continue in the next 10 games to play about .500 hockey or slightly below. They won't have another winning streak beyond 1-2 games if you want to call that a streak. Colorado, Calgary and Florida are just in complete tank mode...


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04-09-2013, 11:06 AM
  #172
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For whatever it is worth (which isn't much), if you simply project the PPG out over the remainder of the season, this is how things shape up:
Quote:
30. Colorado - 37 points
29. Florida - 39 points
28. Calgary - 40 points
27. Tampa Bay - 43 points
26. Carolina - 43 points
25. Nashville - 46 points
24. Philadelphia - 47 points
23. Buffalo - 47 points
22. Columbus - 48 points
21. Edmonton - 48 points
20. Winnipeg - 48 points
19. Dallas - 49 points
18. New Jersey - 49 points
17. Phoenix - 49 points
---
16. New York Islanders - 52 points
...
Basically, a long way of saying what was mentioned above: the bottom-5 seem pretty well locked in in some order--and, once you factor in schedule, Nashville seems likely to finish bottom-six.

Then it is a whole lot of chaos between 7th worst and 14th worst.

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04-09-2013, 11:20 AM
  #173
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Yandle-Coburn would be a -2 to -4 every night, no thanks.
Grab one good free agent def without a need to trade and Nurse during the draft with Ghost ready in a few we should be good.
I question which Coburn shows up next year though, I'd rather we get something for him and replace him with equal or better cheaper parts in FA as well.

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04-09-2013, 11:31 AM
  #174
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There is no way COL does not take Jones with the 1st overall pick. It's almost a lock IMO.

1. COL- Seth Jones
2. CGY - Nathan McKinnon
3. FLA - Jonathan Drouin
4. CAR - Valeri Nichushkin
5. TB - Aleksander Barkov
6. PHL - Darnell Nurse

Might as well do whatever we can to solidify a top 5 spot. I don't see CGY or FLA passing on those two and FLA doesn't need D. CAR might but they won't take Nurse top 4 IMO. TB doesn't need D.

Prime spot at 5-6 if we can get there. Even at 7, I don't think NSH will take a D.

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04-09-2013, 11:50 AM
  #175
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Originally Posted by I Am Number 28 View Post
There is no way COL does not take Jones with the 1st overall pick. It's almost a lock IMO.

1. COL- Seth Jones
2. CGY - Nathan McKinnon
3. FLA - Jonathan Drouin
4. CAR - Valeri Nichushkin
5. TB - Aleksander Barkov
6. PHL - Darnell Nurse

Might as well do whatever we can to solidify a top 5 spot. I don't see CGY or FLA passing on those two and FLA doesn't need D. CAR might but they won't take Nurse top 4 IMO. TB doesn't need D.

Prime spot at 5-6 if we can get there. Even at 7, I don't think NSH will take a D.
Give me Lindholm over Nurse, all day every day. Nurse, despite great upside, is far from a sure thing. Jack's post above more or less sums up my thoughts - the stud dman this team needs should be targeted through trade.

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