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How many points will it take to make the playoffs?

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04-05-2013, 01:52 PM
  #101
kingsfan
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That's very impressive. You ever look at selling that info? I bet there would be a small market for that, at least enough to make a little money for your efforts.

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04-05-2013, 01:55 PM
  #102
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Never really looked into selling it - I figured that anyone interested in the data could do what I did - go to the various league websites and a combination of manual data entry and some automated data retrieval... but if you know of a market let me know

I'd actually somewhat considered trying to just hand it all over to Ralph Slate for hockeydb.com, but I don't think I have it in a schema that would easily work with his amazing work.

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04-05-2013, 02:08 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
Never really looked into selling it - I figured that anyone interested in the data could do what I did - go to the various league websites and a combination of manual data entry and some automated data retrieval... but if you know of a market let me know

I'd actually somewhat considered trying to just hand it all over to Ralph Slate for hockeydb.com, but I don't think I have it in a schema that would easily work with his amazing work.
You underestimate how lazy some people are, especially when it comes to using a calculator

Sports media would be a great first place, but a lot of media outlets would be all for it just for use relating to their own team and how they compare to the rest of the league, especially from historical angles. If you wanted to see how your championship year attendance spike compared with past attendance spikes from past champions, your site is very manageable and with one click of a button, you can easily look that info up. I know when I was i the media, one angle I would have looked at if I was covering the Kings was how would attendance be impacted following the Stanley Cup. Now it may not have been, but if so, I could use past Cup champs spikes, as told on your site, to support my claims.

Stats have a great market in media because people love reading numbers. I think that's the only reason why most players +/- stats are even discussed anymore. It's a number that catches peoples eyes, and most people aren't educated enough in hockey to understand how useless +/- is in general.

When I was in the newsroom, that was one of the first things you got from anything, whether it was a crime story, sports, kids reading books, whatever you were covering. Get the numbers. People can understand and relate to numbers, at least in their own mind. It shows in the popularity of this thread, people come in here in a panick when we lose, only to see you say we need a .318 winning percentage to claim a playoff spot (based on projected final standings) and they calm down, because they can relate to what it takes to go .318 the rest of the way.

Anyways, sorry to ramble on. Just hoping you can milk a few dollars from your sweat equity. Keep up the good (free) work on HF!

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04-05-2013, 02:46 PM
  #104
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Honestly i think this thread should be stickied or something, i'm addicted. I sure it's a lot of work and it's much appreciated.

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04-05-2013, 03:46 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by HansH View Post
Y'all are quite welcome - thanks for letting me know I'm not just annoying everyone with this

After games of 4/4/13:

As it will do, the target points has shifted again -- but this time in the Kings' favor, falling to 52 points. That translates to a need for the Kings to go 3-7-1 in the remaining 11 games (a percentage of .318).

While the Kings are in 4th according to the standings right now, they currently project to 5th place because of San Jose's game in hand and slightly better percentage at this moment. To catch San Jose for 4th and home ice in the first round, the Kings will need 60 points, or a record of 7-3-1 in the remaining games (a percentage of .682)... current projections have them going 6-4-1.

And the Kings STILL need their regional rivals to slip a full game off their pace in order for the head-to-head games between them to be enough to reel them into sight for the Pacific title... if the Kings were to go 11-0.
But San Jose is an easy fix even with their point percentage advantage. We have two games vs them, win them and we control our fate. Lose and we make things difficult, split and things stay the status quo.

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04-05-2013, 05:19 PM
  #106
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HansH the amount of work is so fascinating.

I am going to read all of it I can get my hands on this weekend. Great statistical analysis of some really interesting things.

I am with kf, I get bummed out when you don't get the points required up right at the end of the game. So good that it has become part of the game to me.


Thanks for the hard work.

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04-06-2013, 08:57 PM
  #107
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Thanks again for all the positive feedback, everyone! I used to have visual charts on the team-by-team pages so you could see the curve of how the averages go each year -- that was really useful to me to emphasize that almost every team on the minor pro level (the NHL is another thing entirely) has a spike with their home opener, then attendance falls off so the averages decline until late December/turn of the year, then (in most markets) slowly climbs back to the final number. I'm sure REAL statisticians could do reams of graduate-level work trying to predict final attendance for markets based on their initial numbers, etc.

Now back to the thread topic.

After games of 4/5/13 (not including today's win yet):

Target for the playoff remains 52 points, translating to a record of 3-7-1 (a points percentage of .318).

San Jose's win pushes the target for 4th (without hoping for tiebreakers) to 61 points, or a record of 8-3 (a percentage of .727)

The target for the Pacific remains out of reach -- 70 points, where the Kings' current max sits at 67.

I won't provide an update for today until after the Colorado/Phoenix game is over -- that will determine whether the target stays at 52 or slides all the way back to 50.


Last edited by HansH: 04-06-2013 at 09:02 PM.
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04-06-2013, 10:45 PM
  #108
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After games of 4/6/13 (well, Calgary/Vancouver is still being played, but that won't affect the Kings-related projections):

The target for 8th remains 52 points, which together with today's win translates into a need for the Kings to go 2-7-1 in the remaining ten games (a percentage of .250).

The target for 4th remains 61 points, or a record of 7-3 (a percentage of .700). This does NOT take into account the remaining head-to-head games against San Jose specifically -- the assumption is that the Sharks' pace will have them going 7-4 in the remaining eleven -- and if two of those come against the Kings, so be it.

The Pacific remains out of projected reach (70 points needed, Kings max out at 67 possible).

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04-07-2013, 12:34 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
The target for 4th remains 61 points, or a record of 7-3 (a percentage of .700). This does NOT take into account the remaining head-to-head games against San Jose specifically -- the assumption is that the Sharks' pace will have them going 7-4 in the remaining eleven -- and if two of those come against the Kings, so be it.

The Pacific remains out of projected reach (70 points needed, Kings max out at 67 possible).
Thanks for keeping this up ... I am really interested in seeing how a win today affects our chances of a division title.

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04-07-2013, 01:56 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
Thanks for keeping this up ... I am really interested in seeing how a win today affects our chances of a division title.
I think all it does is make it technically possible (and I'm not 100% sure it does that off the top of my head).

Basically for us to have a hope at all of getting the divisional crown, we'll need to win both games against Anaheim, and in regulation as well. Even then it will take a big slide by Anaheim. Even if we go 10-0 in our remaining games, Anaheim just needs to go 6-3-1 to capture the division. And we aren't going to go 10-0 in all likelihood.

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04-07-2013, 01:57 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
Thanks for keeping this up ... I am really interested in seeing how a win today affects our chances of a division title.
Someone else can actually talk about the percentage chances of a title -- that's more details stats analysis than my simple algorithm can handle.

But in terms of the math it CAN handle, a win today would bring Anaheim's projected points total at the end of the season down to 68 (it currently sits at 69). The Kings' maximum points would still be 67, meaning that Anaheim needs to falter down the stretch for the Kings to have a realistic chance.

Looking at it another way, if we just think of it like baseball, the Kings are four games behind with 10 to play. Two of those the Kings have direct influence on in today's and the one other remaining head-to-head. IF the Kings win both of those, then they would have to do two games better in the remaining eight in order to tie -- so if Anaheim goes 5-3, the Kings would need to go 7-1. If Anaheim goes 6-2, the Kings would need to go 8-0.

So... it's not impossible... but a longshot unless the lack of Getzlaf puts Anaheim into a tailspin in this tail end of the season.

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04-07-2013, 02:02 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
I think all it does is make it technically possible (and I'm not 100% sure it does that off the top of my head).

Basically for us to have a hope at all of getting the divisional crown, we'll need to win both games against Anaheim, and in regulation as well.
It become REALLY hard to see a path to the Pacific if the Kings lose both of the head-to-heads in regulation -- that would make the Kings best possibility 63 points, and give Anaheim 59 with eight to play -- meaning the Kings would need to go 8-0 and have Anaheim need merely to go 2-5-1.

The more I look at it, the more I think we just need to think about it in baseball terms. Kings are four games behind with 10 to play.

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04-07-2013, 02:29 PM
  #113
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Anyone else thinking that the division might come down to our last game of the season against the Sharks? Reminds me of last year when we had to win the last two against the Sharks (including clowe-gate) to get the Pacific...which we didn't, and ended up giving it to the Coyotes. Not that I'm complaining with the result, but I hope we take it if it does come down to that game this year. Would be epic.

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04-07-2013, 06:36 PM
  #114
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Anyone else thinking that the division might come down to our last game of the season against the Sharks?
Not going to happen. Division is out of reach. The Ducks opponents are fairly soft competition for them and they'd need a pretty epic collapse (and the Kings going on a tear) for that to be possible. That ain't happening.

Just aim for 4th place. It's far more realistic of a goal, and the Kings are going to need home ice advantage if they are facing San Jose in round 1.

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04-07-2013, 06:47 PM
  #115
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Not going to happen. Division is out of reach. The Ducks opponents are fairly soft competition for them and they'd need a pretty epic collapse (and the Kings going on a tear) for that to be possible. That ain't happening.

Just aim for 4th place. It's far more realistic of a goal, and the Kings are going to need home ice advantage if they are facing San Jose in round 1.
Agreed.
It would still be mathematically possible to catch them if we take the final two against them. It's a long shot in a big way. The only good thing when looking at the Ducks schedule is that they have to play 8 teams that are still fighting for either a playoff spot or a better seed. So those teams should come to play. But we have 7 games in that same area.

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04-07-2013, 07:15 PM
  #116
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Holy lulz, this is from TRH I suppose.

http://arethekingsintheplayoffs.com/

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04-08-2013, 01:28 AM
  #117
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After games of 4/7/13:

Playoff target remains 52 points. That requires a record of 2-7 in the remaining nine (a percentage of .222).

The target for home ice has fallen to 60 points, requiring a record of 6-3 (a percentage of .667).

And for the Division, the Kings are 4 and a half games behind with nine to play -- if the Kings go 9-0, the Ducks only need to go 5-4 to hold on.

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04-08-2013, 11:44 PM
  #118
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After games of 4/8/13:

Obviously the Kings were idle, but the rest of the league wasn't. With losses by Phoenix and Edmonton, the target for 8th has slid back to 50 points, meaning the Kings need to go 1-8 (a percentage of .111) to make the playoffs.

The target for 4th (without tiebreakers) remains 60 points (Kings are currently on pace for 59), which translates to a record of 6-3 (just like last night).

In terms of actual magic numbers to clinch, it's time to start talking about that. 60 points is enough to GUARANTEE the playoffs right now, putting the Kings' magic number at 12 points.

Unfortunately, the Kings' tragic number for the Pacific is down to 8 points -- that is, _any_ combination of Ducks wins (or OT/SOL) and Kings losses (or OT/SOL) that add up to 8 points in the remaining 17 games played by the two teams (the one remaining head-to-head clearly counts twice) will eliminate the Kings from division title contention. Technically, that's not enough to clinch the division for the Ducks -- San Jose has a max of one point higher than the Kings, so it would take _9_ points for the Ducks to completely clinch the Division.

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04-08-2013, 11:49 PM
  #119
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How nice that the Kings can be comfortably in the playoffs with nine games left.

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04-08-2013, 11:51 PM
  #120
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How nice that the Kings can be comfortably in the playoffs with nine games left.
Agreed!

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04-08-2013, 11:53 PM
  #121
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How nice that the Kings can be comfortably in the playoffs with nine games left.
Weren't we in close to a similar plot last year ? , and yet because of some untimely loses and wins by other teams it took until the 2nd to last game for the Kings to actually CLINCH a playoff spot ... I vaguely remember something like that playing out. Didn't we go from being 1st in the Division, 3rd in the West all the way down to 9th and out of Playoffs all of while playing like 2 games near the final 2 weeks ? other teams leap frogged us while we sat idle ?

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04-10-2013, 12:03 AM
  #122
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After the "events" of 4/9/13 (one of those things was clearly not dignifiable with the word "game"):

The target for the playoffs has risen back to 51 points, which combined with the loss, takes the record needed to 1-6-1, a percentage of .188.

The target for 4th has dropped (thankfully) to 59 points, giving the Kings a target record of 5-2-1 (a percentage of .688) to take it in the clear, but watch out for St. Louis, who also are right now actually percentage points ahead of the Kings (as are the Sharks).

In terms of magic numbers, the Kings' magic number remains 12 points (and Anaheim's remains 1 point) for the playoffs.

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04-11-2013, 04:45 PM
  #123
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No meaningful changes after games of 4/10/13, other than to note that Anaheim will clinch their playoff spot if San Jose beats Detroit in regulation tongiht.

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04-11-2013, 05:32 PM
  #124
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No meaningful changes after games of 4/10/13, other than to note that Anaheim will clinch their playoff spot if San Jose beats Detroit in regulation tongiht.
You might want to double check that. You don't gain ground when things happen to the team in 8th. It takes the 9th seed to lose. And right now that would be Dallas in control of that spot. They have 9 games remaining with 41 points so they could get 18 more or a total of 59. So Dallas has to lose in any manor for that to happen right now.

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04-11-2013, 06:41 PM
  #125
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You might want to double check that. You don't gain ground when things happen to the team in 8th. It takes the 9th seed to lose. And right now that would be Dallas in control of that spot. They have 9 games remaining with 41 points so they could get 18 more or a total of 59. So Dallas has to lose in any manor for that to happen right now.
I got it from the NHL itself -- I was a little skeptical, but it works out. The reason is that right now, Detroit has the 8th-highest max points total at 61, and if they lose in regulation, they fall into a tie for 8th in max points with Dallas at 59 each.

The reason that would clinch a spot for Anaheim, despite the Ducks not having the ROW tiebreaker clinched over either Detroit or Dallas, is that the Stars and Red Wings have a head-to-head game remaining against each other -- meaning at least ONE of those teams will lose at least one point off their max, bringing the highest 9th-place max down to effectively 58 points.... clinching the playoff spot for Anaheim.

Trust me, it's a regulation win by San Jose tonight that is the only Ducks-clinching scenario before tomorrow night.

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